ISAF: leave Afghanistan without consequences
At the end of December 2001, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was organized by a decision of the UN Security Council. The purpose of this military association was to help the new Afghan government maintain order after the overthrow of the Taliban. Initially, ISAF was responsible for order only in Kabul, but gradually the area of responsibility was expanded to the whole country. Almost eleven years have passed since the organization of the International Forces. The world in Afghanistan has not yet come, but every year the opinions about the need for the early withdrawal of international troops are becoming louder and louder.
The situation in Afghanistan transparently hints that a new civil war will begin in the country immediately after the withdrawal of NATO troops. According to former British Foreign Secretary J. Miliband, when the ISAF leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban may come to power within a few days, or even hours. In 2014, it is planned to completely withdraw troops from Afghanistan, which may bring the unpleasant outcome predicted by the former head of the British Foreign Ministry. Because of this, the United States initiated negotiations with the current official Kabul on the subject of a new mutual assistance agreement. The main objective of this agreement will be to ensure the safe withdrawal of NATO troops, as well as preserve the order and the current government in Afghanistan. Only in this way can you minimize possible problems that will undoubtedly accompany the planned ISAF care.
It is worth noting that the United States has already left a small “loophole” for ensuring the security of its troops, as well as for maintaining influence on the current Afghan leadership. In the spring of this year B. Obama and H. Karzai signed an agreement on a long-term strategic partnership. Among other things, this document stipulates the rights of the United States to the new agreement, which allows to keep a small contingent of its troops after the 2014 year. These officers and soldiers will serve as military advisers, as well as be responsible for the training of the Afghan armed forces. According to US Secretary of Defense L. Panetta, research is currently being conducted on the subject of the necessary number of military advisers. Actually signing an additional agreement on advisers may occur in the next few months.
Despite the seeming "colonial" nature of such an agreement, Kabul is likely to be happy to sign it. Currently, the total number of armed forces of Afghanistan slightly exceeds 200 thousand people. By 2014, it is planned to bring it to the level of 320-350 thousand people. This is an order of magnitude greater than the approximate number of Taliban: according to various estimates, there are currently about 28-30 thousands of militants in Afghanistan. Thus, there is every reason to assume that terrorist organizations will continue to use guerrilla tactics, and this will require special training from the armed forces. Currently, most of the new military personnel are trained by foreign military experts. At the same time, an own Afghan system of training soldiers is being created.
Recently, terrorist organizations have begun to apply a new way of dealing with government forces and the ISAF. Now they are not only laying mines and making attacks on roadblocks, but also trying to infiltrate their people into the Afghan army. After enrollment in the armed forces, the terrorist can work as a scout, and may even commit sabotage, depending on the order of his commanders. In this regard, NATO servicemen responsible for recruiting have to tighten the selection rules and take a more responsible approach to the consideration of candidates. According to some sources, in the past few months, the consequences of the new selection rules have been clearly felt. One of the indirect confirmations of this can be considered the growth of attacks on NATO members having one characteristic feature. Thus, more and more often American, British and other bases are being attacked by militants wearing the uniforms of the armed forces of Afghanistan. It is not difficult to guess the purpose of the attacks in this way.
As you can see, the withdrawal of ISAF troops from Afghanistan will be far from easy, and its consequences can be anything and they are unlikely to be good. Not so long ago, the report of the International Crisis Group (ICG) added fuel to the fire of discussion. According to its analysts, the withdrawal of NATO troops will indeed entail the return of the Taliban as the strongest organization in the country. And the reason for this is the distrust of the population of the existing government. In the 2014, a new presidential election is also due to take place and the staff of the ICG doubt that Karzai will be able to maintain his post. In addition to the report of the International Crisis Group, the recent interview of the Afghan parliamentarian S.I. Gilani He believes that it is the International Security Assistance Force that was unable to overcome banditry to blame for the current problems of Afghanistan. If Karzai intends to extend the state of emergency and thereby increase the actual term of his office, then the exacerbation of the situation can begin not only by the forces of the Taliban, but also because of dissatisfaction with other political forces. In this case, according to Gilani, no force can prevent a new confusion.
Caught in an unpleasant situation with the withdrawal of troops, the NATO command is trying to save a good mine. For example, in recent times, instead of the term “withdrawal of troops”, which was previously associated exclusively with hasty departure, the phrase “redeployment” is used. At the same time, along with the new formulation, a new informational image of the withdrawal of troops is being introduced. The word "redeployment", in the first place, implies a measured and well-planned movement of troops to their home bases. It is unlikely that a change in the name may change anything, but a thoughtful and clear plan for the withdrawal of troops will indeed be useful. Now no one can rule out the possibility of attacks on the weakened ISAF withdrawal base, and the assistance of local armed forces may be insufficient.
The exact calculation of the redeployment of troops in the context of Afghan realities has a special priority: it is necessary to withdraw the bases and at the same time prevent losses during the withdrawal. Of course, local armed forces can provide some assistance in covering up troops and protecting bases, but they do not arouse much confidence. So the planned institute of military advisers is likely to be made on the basis of the part of the current ISAF contingent, which will not be withdrawn from Afghanistan. The possible consequences of the withdrawal of troops in the form of activating the Taliban and other terrorist organizations suggest that the main task of the remaining American troops will be to protect their own bases. As for the training of Afghan soldiers, in the case of a new stage of the civil war, it is likely that the armed forces of Afghanistan themselves will have to take these measures. If, of course, NATO does not get permission to conduct another peacekeeping operation, as it was eleven years ago.
On the materials of the sites:
http://ria.ru/
http://rus.ruvr.ru/
http://lenta.ru/
http://www.nato.int/isaf/
http://crisisgroup.org/
http://defense.gov/
The situation in Afghanistan transparently hints that a new civil war will begin in the country immediately after the withdrawal of NATO troops. According to former British Foreign Secretary J. Miliband, when the ISAF leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban may come to power within a few days, or even hours. In 2014, it is planned to completely withdraw troops from Afghanistan, which may bring the unpleasant outcome predicted by the former head of the British Foreign Ministry. Because of this, the United States initiated negotiations with the current official Kabul on the subject of a new mutual assistance agreement. The main objective of this agreement will be to ensure the safe withdrawal of NATO troops, as well as preserve the order and the current government in Afghanistan. Only in this way can you minimize possible problems that will undoubtedly accompany the planned ISAF care.
It is worth noting that the United States has already left a small “loophole” for ensuring the security of its troops, as well as for maintaining influence on the current Afghan leadership. In the spring of this year B. Obama and H. Karzai signed an agreement on a long-term strategic partnership. Among other things, this document stipulates the rights of the United States to the new agreement, which allows to keep a small contingent of its troops after the 2014 year. These officers and soldiers will serve as military advisers, as well as be responsible for the training of the Afghan armed forces. According to US Secretary of Defense L. Panetta, research is currently being conducted on the subject of the necessary number of military advisers. Actually signing an additional agreement on advisers may occur in the next few months.
Despite the seeming "colonial" nature of such an agreement, Kabul is likely to be happy to sign it. Currently, the total number of armed forces of Afghanistan slightly exceeds 200 thousand people. By 2014, it is planned to bring it to the level of 320-350 thousand people. This is an order of magnitude greater than the approximate number of Taliban: according to various estimates, there are currently about 28-30 thousands of militants in Afghanistan. Thus, there is every reason to assume that terrorist organizations will continue to use guerrilla tactics, and this will require special training from the armed forces. Currently, most of the new military personnel are trained by foreign military experts. At the same time, an own Afghan system of training soldiers is being created.
Recently, terrorist organizations have begun to apply a new way of dealing with government forces and the ISAF. Now they are not only laying mines and making attacks on roadblocks, but also trying to infiltrate their people into the Afghan army. After enrollment in the armed forces, the terrorist can work as a scout, and may even commit sabotage, depending on the order of his commanders. In this regard, NATO servicemen responsible for recruiting have to tighten the selection rules and take a more responsible approach to the consideration of candidates. According to some sources, in the past few months, the consequences of the new selection rules have been clearly felt. One of the indirect confirmations of this can be considered the growth of attacks on NATO members having one characteristic feature. Thus, more and more often American, British and other bases are being attacked by militants wearing the uniforms of the armed forces of Afghanistan. It is not difficult to guess the purpose of the attacks in this way.
As you can see, the withdrawal of ISAF troops from Afghanistan will be far from easy, and its consequences can be anything and they are unlikely to be good. Not so long ago, the report of the International Crisis Group (ICG) added fuel to the fire of discussion. According to its analysts, the withdrawal of NATO troops will indeed entail the return of the Taliban as the strongest organization in the country. And the reason for this is the distrust of the population of the existing government. In the 2014, a new presidential election is also due to take place and the staff of the ICG doubt that Karzai will be able to maintain his post. In addition to the report of the International Crisis Group, the recent interview of the Afghan parliamentarian S.I. Gilani He believes that it is the International Security Assistance Force that was unable to overcome banditry to blame for the current problems of Afghanistan. If Karzai intends to extend the state of emergency and thereby increase the actual term of his office, then the exacerbation of the situation can begin not only by the forces of the Taliban, but also because of dissatisfaction with other political forces. In this case, according to Gilani, no force can prevent a new confusion.
Caught in an unpleasant situation with the withdrawal of troops, the NATO command is trying to save a good mine. For example, in recent times, instead of the term “withdrawal of troops”, which was previously associated exclusively with hasty departure, the phrase “redeployment” is used. At the same time, along with the new formulation, a new informational image of the withdrawal of troops is being introduced. The word "redeployment", in the first place, implies a measured and well-planned movement of troops to their home bases. It is unlikely that a change in the name may change anything, but a thoughtful and clear plan for the withdrawal of troops will indeed be useful. Now no one can rule out the possibility of attacks on the weakened ISAF withdrawal base, and the assistance of local armed forces may be insufficient.
The exact calculation of the redeployment of troops in the context of Afghan realities has a special priority: it is necessary to withdraw the bases and at the same time prevent losses during the withdrawal. Of course, local armed forces can provide some assistance in covering up troops and protecting bases, but they do not arouse much confidence. So the planned institute of military advisers is likely to be made on the basis of the part of the current ISAF contingent, which will not be withdrawn from Afghanistan. The possible consequences of the withdrawal of troops in the form of activating the Taliban and other terrorist organizations suggest that the main task of the remaining American troops will be to protect their own bases. As for the training of Afghan soldiers, in the case of a new stage of the civil war, it is likely that the armed forces of Afghanistan themselves will have to take these measures. If, of course, NATO does not get permission to conduct another peacekeeping operation, as it was eleven years ago.
On the materials of the sites:
http://ria.ru/
http://rus.ruvr.ru/
http://lenta.ru/
http://www.nato.int/isaf/
http://crisisgroup.org/
http://defense.gov/
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