Consequences of aid: reduction of parks and arsenals of Ukraine's foreign partners
NLAW grenade launchers donated by the UK. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Foreign countries have long begun to help the Kyiv regime with the supply of various weapons and equipment. At the beginning of last year, the volume of such deliveries increased sharply, and the range of products expanded. As a result, to date, the fleets of vehicles and stocks of a number of countries have seriously decreased, and urgent replenishment of such “losses” is required. At the same time, the need to fill our own arsenals does not exclude future supplies of materiel to Ukraine.
Foreign deliveries
Active deliveries of foreign weapons and equipment to Ukraine started at the beginning of last year. They began with the sending of "defensive weapons" in the form of ATGMs or MANPADS from individual countries. In the future, other European states began to join such assistance. The range of supplied products gradually expanded, at an early stage mainly due to auxiliary equipment.
Getting foreign weapon, Ukrainian formations continued to use the available Soviet-style equipment. However, Russian demilitarization measures quickly led to a significant reduction in the available fleet. As a result, the first foreign armored vehicles went to Ukraine in the spring. In the same period, deliveries of artillery systems, barrel and jet, including advertised ones, began.
By autumn, the range of products arriving in Ukraine included infantry weapons, automotive and light armored vehicles, guns, self-propelled guns, MLRS and even Tanks, as well as various ammunition for all these systems. However, such supplies had a very limited effect. Moreover, newly arriving products regularly become targets for Russian weapons and fall into the list of losses.
Ukrainian howitzer D-20 with a tractor a minute before destruction. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
Taking into account the losses of the Kyiv regime, at the end of last year, foreign partners came to a decision to transfer tanks and armored vehicles of several models, incl. modern designs. Now the possibility of supplying combat aircraft is being considered - in view of the critical losses of the Ukrainian Air Force.
International demilitarization
One of the main goals of the Russian Special Operation is the demilitarization of Ukraine - forced disarmament and disabling of the military infrastructure. This task is being successfully solved, and great successes in this matter were made already in the first weeks and months of the operation. In general, we can say that it was then that the outcome of the entire campaign was predetermined. The Kyiv regime suffered serious losses, from which it is impossible to recover even with foreign help.
However, foreign materiel began to arrive in Ukraine, which also have to be destroyed or taken as trophies. Foreign assistance to a certain extent delays the process of neutralizing the Kyiv regime, but leads to curious consequences.
In the current situation, Ukraine's foreign partners took weapons and equipment for supplies from the presence of their armies. At best, it was about products from storage, but often they were taken directly from combat units. Support for Ukrainian formations was essentially carried out at the expense of the deterioration of their own defense capability. Thus, the Russian demilitarization of Ukraine led to the partial disarmament of European armies.
ACS Krab made in Poland. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
At the first stages, they tried to transfer Soviet-style products and weapons to Ukraine that did not require separate training. However, stocks of such materiel were almost completely exhausted last year. These supplies did not affect the general course of events, and foreign partners had to allocate new assistance, already in the form of more modern NATO-style products.
Voluntary losses
The reduction in the total number of foreign parks and arsenals has interesting features. Thus, a number of foreign countries have already completely used up the available stocks of some products. First of all, these are Soviet-made equipment and weapons. They began to be sent before everyone else and in large quantities, which predetermined the imminent end of stocks.
Poland has become one of the most active arms suppliers for Ukraine. Last year, she handed over almost all of the available 300 T-72 tanks of several modifications, and also promised to give similar PT-91s. The delivery of a certain number of Leopard 2 MBTs was also announced. Of the 80 AHS Krab self-propelled guns available, 18 units were given to the ally. It is reported about the possibility of transferring all the remaining MiG-29 fighters.
Germany played a significant role in the aid program. She sent several thousand MANPADS to Ukraine - all stocks of old Soviet-type products. The possibility of transferring old Leopard 1 tanks, incl. all remaining in stock.
Brimstone missile system. Photo Telegram / BMPD
Of interest is the assistance from Slovakia. She provided a small number of old-model Soviet-style helicopters. In addition, after negotiations, she agreed to decommission her only S-300 air defense system in exchange for the supply of a foreign system of a similar purpose.
Thus, the stocks of old Soviet-made weapons in Ukraine and Europe were reduced to a minimum. If current trends continue, they will be completely used up in the coming months. Stocks of NATO-standard products are also suffering, but not to the same extent. However, their exhaustion is only a matter of time.
Replenishment attempts
One of the prerequisites for the formation of the current situation was the rash decisions of the past. After the end of the Cold War, on a wave of optimism, European states sharply cut defense spending. Even the NATO countries have stopped allocating the recommended 2% of the gross domestic product for the needs of the army. As a result, the armed forces have decreased, the volume of purchases of materiel for them has decreased, and the pace of development of new products has fallen. In matters of security, they began to rely only on help from abroad.
In recent years, European governments have been constantly talking about the "Russian threat" and urging to fight it, but the real steps have been minimal and in fact have not produced any result. As a result of this, now Europe and NATO, who want to help the Kyiv regime, have to not only reduce stockpiles, but also write off weapons from combat units.
However, the leaders of the countries see and understand this problem, and even offer ways to deal with it. Thus, Germany and France have already announced a gradual increase in the military budget to the required values. Similar plans are being drawn up in other countries.
Armored car Mastiff British production. Photo Telegram / Dambiev
States that have their own defense industry are working on the issues of its modernization and the launch or expansion of production. Germany, UK, France, etc. are going to independently or with the help of foreign allies to produce the necessary products and carry out rearmament.
For example, Poland, having written off a significant part of its tanks, is forcing the acquisition of new ones. A contract with the United States for the supply of M1A2 MBT with one of the latest modifications has been signed and is being prepared for execution. South Korea will sell its K2s, as well as help with the localization of production at Polish enterprises. In parallel, orders are loaded on their own developers and manufacturers of weapons and equipment.
Large purchases of new weapons to replace those sent to Ukraine are planned by the US Army. She needs artillery shells, ATGMs, MANPADS, etc. In addition, American industry receives orders from European countries for the production of various military products. For example, all the same Poland wants to purchase a large number of modern MLRS M142.
Obvious Problems
The proposed and already implemented plans have a number of problems that will prevent their full implementation. First of all, this is the high cost of any program of mass production or purchase of equipment and weapons. For example, the Polish government plans to spend approx. 3,75 billion US dollars, for which it was necessary to increase and rework the military budget.
ARTHUR radar of one of the Ukrainian air defense units. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
It should be expected that ready-made materiel or its independent production will rise in price significantly. Europe is left without inexpensive energy carriers, which in itself is a big problem. Supply chains are also disrupted and some of the problems that emerged during the pandemic still persist. All these factors can lead to an increase in the cost of products or even to the impossibility of its production.
With all this, foreign states plan to continue to support the Kiev regime. This means that they will have to simultaneously produce weapons and equipment for themselves and for Ukrainian formations. As a result, some new ones will be added to the already known problems. It will be necessary to increase the pace of production, which will lead to an increase in overall costs, etc.
Useless expenses
Thus, the United States, NATO countries and other states that support the Kyiv regime have independently created big problems for themselves. They gave Ukrainian allies a significant part of their weapons, equipment and ammunition, as a result of which their own defense capability suffered. At the same time, such deliveries did not help Ukraine, and the need for new ones remains.
Further shipment of weapons at the same pace poses a direct threat to the own armies of the supplying countries. So they have to take action and order new products. However, in the current economic and political situation, replenishment of voluntary “losses” is associated with a lot of problems. If they cannot be fully resolved, foreign countries will also face demilitarization or, at the very least, a sharp drop in defense capability.
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