How many more Swift flights will there be?
The question of whether the Ukrainians will launch Drones on our territory, as it were, and not worth it. And so it is clear that they will not go anywhere, they will launch.
It is clear (from conversations with representatives of our air defense) that they are not launching them for the purpose of causing damage, this is too presumptuous when launching one or two devices, but to analyze the work of Russian air defense on their territory. But if the test was “excellent”, then the question “should we bang” is also not a subject for controversy. Of course, bang. The world into dust, of course, will not work, but the noise in the information field is useful noise. They give money for it.
We take as an example the last blow to Kireevsk, Tula region. Seven houses were damaged and three people were injured. Meaning? None. At first sight.
We are waiting for something like this in Voronezh after the first attack. We are in no way worse than Engels, and certainly a city of a million inhabitants, a fatter target than Kireevsk with its population of 25 people.
Hidden sacred meaning? Obviously yes. Millionaire Voronezh covers an air defense regiment plus aircraft. Initially, there are few chances, because the training of the military personnel of the 108th Tula anti-aircraft missile regiment is personally well known to me and cannot be doubted. Therefore, I perfectly understand the enemy on the other side - what's the point of breaking if they shoot down? And ours will be shot down. They know how.
One of the telegram workers made a map on which he marked the points where the downed UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed. Good work, which clearly shows that there is a constant probing of the country's air defense. Sometimes successful, sometimes not.
The question is why?
The answer is simple: because someone has developed appropriate plans. Plans to strike at targets in the country. What is the third question, the main thing is to know where and how. And therefore, drones from the territory of Ukraine are probing directions that are relatively safe for flights.
What then will fly along these routes is still difficult to say, but in the world, not only Iran produces effective attack drones. And this fact is beyond doubt.
And until this joyful moment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the old Tupolev scouts will try to break through the Russian air defense. It is really important here to know how far a hypothetical strike UAV can fly before it is noticed, identified and destroyed.
Or not destroyed. This can also happen, as shown by the state of emergency in some Russian settlements. In Tuapse, for example. It is clear why Ukrainian devices fly in such a wide fan, from the Krasnodar Territory to the Tula and Ryazan regions. To Moscow? No, why? So far, everything is clear with the capital. There is nothing to do there.
Routes of safe flight over the territory of Russia. It will turn out to cause some damage, as in Tuapse or Engels - well, no - more than enough intelligence information. In the centers it will be processed and on its basis conclusions and calculations will be made.
What then?
It is very difficult to predict something. Let's start with what the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently operating with. That is, Tu-141 "Swift" and Tu-143 "Flight".
Tu-141 Swift
Actually, a participant in 90% of the shares in the territory of the Russian Federation. Flying 1000 km at a speed of 1000 km/h, a drone weighing almost 5,5 tons is a serious thing. The ability to fly at altitudes from 20 to 6000 meters makes it a problematic target, despite its size.
But the two "highlights" of "Strizh" are not in this.
The first is that today the Tu-141 flying from Ukraine to Russia is not the drone that was created in the 80s of the last century. And this stems from the second "zest": the birthplace of the Tu-141 "Strizh" is the city of Kharkov.
Yes, in the shops of the Kharkov Aviation Plant, where graduates of the Kharkov Aviation Institute worked mainly, with the support of the Kharkov Technical University of Radio Electronics, they created and assembled a very good device for those times.
Collect today? Easy. Yes, there have already been opinions that “everything is stolen and lost”, I wanted to be sure of this, but something tells me that everything is not so simple. And you should not count on it indiscriminately. All the documentation could easily have been preserved, which means that it is quite possible to produce new Swifts and modernize the old ones.
By the way, I hope no one will make round eyes about the fact that today's Swift is somewhat different from the one forty years ago? Naturally, they completely changed the navigation systems from inertial to more modern ones, otherwise it would have been simply impossible to achieve fairly accurate hits in Tuapse, Diaghilevo and Engels.
The Kharkov aircraft factory produced 152 Swifts. The figure is not large, but there is information that the plant has a very decent (up to a hundred) stock of hulls and engines. Is it possible to make suitable drones out of this? Naturally. But this is a very slow business, because we observe the use of "Swifts" sporadically. Obviously, when ready.
Tu-143 Flight
This device is inferior to the "Swift" in everything, less range, height, speed (slightly), dimensions. However, not everything is so clear, although some have already sentenced the "Flight" as unable to fly more than 300 km. Although the figure "300" is more than enough to keep the air defense of the front-line regions of Russia in suspense.
Specialist from Kharkov (surprisingly, right?) S. V. Skorokhod in his report "Standing the prospects for a distant development of the military technology of reconnaissance of the Reconnaissance Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" paid attention to the refinement and modernization of Soviet reconnaissance UAVs of the Reis and Swift types in accordance with the requirements of our time.
Among other things, in his reports, Skorokhod said that the range of the Tu-143 "Flight" could be increased by placing additional fuel tanks. In total, the UAV has four compartments for equipment. Reconnaissance equipment is located in compartment F1, the compartment was removable. Consider - a place for warheads. The second compartment, F-2, was filled with control and power supply equipment. And the front landing gear was retracted into this compartment. Compartment F3 - fuel. Compartment F4 - engine and container with a brake parachute.
Instead of a rack compartment, you can place the first tank. Instead of a parachute - the second. The third and fourth tanks - instead of landing gear in the wing consoles. Why does a cruise missile need a landing gear? And according to preliminary calculations, the placement of these additional tanks can increase the flight range up to 400 km.
It is not a very pleasant moment that, unlike the Tu-141 "Swift", "Reisov" riveted almost a thousand at one time. And they were made, including in Kharkov. And besides Ukraine, "Reisy" was supplied to our former allies, now supplying Ukraine with everything they can: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania.
But in 2009, Belarus bought 50 "Reisov" from Ukraine for its own needs. It is simply unrealistic to say how many of them are still at the disposal of Ukraine, because an uncomplicated and unpretentious flying machine was generally in demand. And it is simply unrealistic to even roughly estimate the number of operational "Reiss" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the fact that they exist, and not in single quantities, is an indisputable fact.
Very approximately, based on very inaccurate data, it is possible to voice a figure from 150 to 250 Tu-143s in varying degrees of suitability. As subject to repair and restoration to flight condition, and no.
With Tu-141 it's easier. According to open sources, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already used 29 Swifts to date, including the one that flew to Zagreb. That is, the maximum that can be at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is about 30-50 devices in varying degrees of suitability, plus an uncertain prospect of repair and assembly of new devices. But she is.
What is it all for?
What is visible on the map says only one thing - by raiding its drones, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are probing the capabilities of Russian air defense. The question is why?
Here it is worth immediately dismissing the plans for a hypothetical retaliatory strike, nothing will work: the Armed Forces of Ukraine have too few UAVs at their disposal that can fulfill the role of cruise missiles. Even a hundred or two plainly can not change anything. Thousands of missiles and "Shaheds" were flying from the Russian side, seemingly tormenting the infrastructure, but the trouble is that the energy system of Ukrainian cities was restored faster than the stocks of missiles in the Russian army were replenished.
A hundred cruise missiles from Reys and Swifts is dangerous, but not as much as Kyiv would like. Yes, Soviet drones can fly at ultra-low altitudes, avoid terrain, and so on. But cruise missiles can do it too. And the Caliber warhead of 400-450 kg is not 127 kg of the Swift warhead made with the help of an air bomb. But the Swift is also significant, of course.
So, there is no retaliation. There is an opinion that a diversionary maneuver will be carried out, simulating an attack on Russian territory, and UAVs will carry out a "massive" attack on strategic objects on our territory.
It doesn't look very good either. Of course, there are many strategic facilities on the territory of Russia, obviously more than the Swifts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, the map created by the blogger makes you think about this: why are the strikes being made on such strange objects? They can be divided into two categories: useful and useless.
Useful ones are Tuapse, Engels, Diaghilevo. In Tuapse, the effect was more political than economic, but it was. In Diaghilev and Engels, it was political, and even played into our hands: finally, the airfield command tore the carcasses off the sofas and began to mask and disperse the planes, ceasing to portray the parade and exhibition formation near the runway.
Guards, Buturlinovka and Yeysk - it is clear that cities with aviation stuffing. But it didn’t work out with the approach, large Swifts were shot down, but in Yeysk, smaller Chinese Mugin-5s broke through and set up explosions.
But this is the sane part. And the other part looks really weird. Kendzhe-Kulak - village, 1100 people. New - settlement, 889 people. Kazanskaya Lopatina - farm, 338 people. Muravlevo - a village, 168 people. Airfields, strategic objects of a different plan - but there are shops not everywhere!
Plus, separately Kaluga and Moscow regions, where UAVs generally fell outside the settlements.
Testing new navigation systems? Quite possible. And where there will be no counteraction to air defense and electronic warfare. And, if this is the case, then it can be noted that the flight range of Ukrainian vehicles is so-so, despite all the tricks and upgrades.
It is clear that the same "Strizh" in its original, Soviet form, would hardly have hit the Engels airfield. Obviously, new modern autopilots and means of orientation of the device were installed. And those were problems, otherwise the Strizh with an air bomb would not have fallen near Zagreb, in Croatia. This, by the way, is just about a thousand kilometers, only to the west, a little in the other direction.
But the same "Flights" quite normally tried to attack Kursk and Belgorod.
Apparently, everything was changed: flight controllers, navigation systems, possibly with satellite adjustments. And logically, tests are going on, including where no one will definitely interfere. Farms and villages.
The first tests went very well so-so. It could be much worse, in the same Engels.
But any systems, if you work on them, will sooner or later be debugged and start working the way they are required to. But the number of "Reys" is small, and "Swifts" is even less. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine stubbornly continue to send their vehicles on flights to our side. Knowing full well that there is nowhere to get new devices.
Stop. And where did we get the idea that Ukraine has nowhere to get devices to replace the Swifts? Above, I already expressed the opinion that not only Iran makes good UAVs. Made by Israel, USA, China.
Who will sell and how - and it does not matter, it is important that in the end more advanced UAVs may be at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Or rockets. Winged. How? Yes, everything is the same: in the holds of bulk carriers, and then by rail.
Doubtful? Well, yes, we didn’t really believe in the supply of precision-guided projectiles, and now Excaliburs and Hymars have become commonplace. So long-range missiles can come. After planning bombs. Easy.
And here the situation will not be very beautiful: the corridors for safe flights have been identified and tested, the routes have been fixed. Charge and run.
And then, instead of the Swifts, something else can fly. More perfect and accurate.
And here it is worth considering not only the desire of Kyiv to have such weapon (I’m sure, give them a nuclear warhead today - tomorrow we’ll blaze in full somewhere), but also the presence of it (and it is undoubtedly) among those who can arm the Armed Forces of Ukraine with such weapons.
And this is where our problems begin. We really won’t be able to protect ALL valuable objects within the reach of the Swifts (or something else). We simply do not have so many air defense systems.
In total, what we have:
1. Ukraine is studying the capabilities of Russian air defense by launching the Strizh and Reis UAVs on Russian territory.
2. Probably, there are attempts to resume the production of UAVs at the Kharkov Aviation Plant or to obtain similar devices from the allies.
3. Russia will not be able to protect all important objects in the frontline, at least this will require the creation of a single radar field and an increase in the number of aircraft that will fight UAVs.
Of course, it is somewhat sad that there are no statements from Ukraine regarding “weapons of retaliation”, “weapons of the last blow” and stuff like that. Usually this indicates that things are getting worse than ever, and this, by analogy with the Second World War, is followed by attacks on the civilian population.
However, the painstaking work carried out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the help of modernized Soviet drones leads to certain reflections. Namely, that we can again find ourselves in the position of reacting and catching up. And this is not the best way to win.
So the flights of Swifts and Flights will still continue. Until the devices are completely used up or the tasks set are completed - but they will.
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