Billion dollar plans: artillery shells from Europe for Ukraine
Howitzers M777 one of the first batches. Photo by the US Department of Defense
Foreign states intend to continue to support Ukraine with the supply of arms and ammunition. Recently, another plan of this kind was approved. Several European countries decided to jointly provide the Kyiv regime with 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Deliveries will start in the near future and will cost European taxpayers a significant amount.
Billion dollar plans
Over the past year, the United States and European states have regularly transferred to Ukraine various Soviet and NATO-style artillery systems, as well as ammunition for them. Such deliveries continue to this day, but now there are difficulties and problems. Thus, batch sizes have been gradually reduced, and some countries are already talking about the depletion of their stocks.
A few weeks ago it became known that the European Union, its member states and several non-member states are discussing a joint plan to continue the supply of artillery shells. Later, some details of the upcoming plan and the corresponding agreement appeared in the media.
On March 20, a major meeting was held in Brussels with the participation of representatives of the military and political leadership of European countries. The event discussed the previously mentioned plan for the supply of artillery shells. As a result of the meeting, 17 EU countries and Norway signed an agreement on further joint work.
On the same day, the structures of the European Union disclosed basic information about the new plan. The signed document provides for the supply to the Kyiv regime of 1 million artillery rounds of NATO standards in caliber 155 mm. Deliveries will be made within the next year.
Polish 155 mm self-propelled guns Krab. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
The total cost of ammunition will exceed 2 billion euros. This money is planned to be taken from the Peace Fund at the European Defense Agency. The fund is formed at the expense of payments from EU member states, i.е. spending on shells will fall on the whole of Europe.
It is reported that shells for Ukraine will be purchased from stock and produced specifically. Thus, 1,04 billion euros are allocated for the purchase of ammunition from countries that have the necessary stocks. Another 1 billion will be spent on the production of new products. The number and proportions of shots purchased and planned for production have not yet been specified.
The AFP publication, citing its sources in the EU leadership, reports that the first batches of ammunition from warehouses will go to Ukraine in May. In turn, for the production of new shells, appropriate contracts are needed - they will be signed no later than the beginning of September.
Potential Suppliers
The joint plan of 18 European states provides for the prompt delivery of the required shells from stock. Which countries will provide such assistance has not yet been specified. However, practically all EU and NATO states, both those that signed the new document and others, can play this role.
It should be recalled that active deliveries of NATO-standard shells to Ukraine began by the middle of last year. As a result, almost all NATO and EU countries joined these events. To date, the total account of the transferred ammunition is in the hundreds of thousands.
Imported howitzer FH-70. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Such deliveries, in theory, can continue further. However, in practice there are serious difficulties. Thus, a number of European countries have exhausted free stocks of shells, and further shipment will leave their own artillery without ammunition. Other armies still maintain sufficient stocks, but continued assistance to the Kyiv regime will have similar consequences.
Whether the existing stocks of shells will be enough for deliveries under the new plan is not yet clear. NATO and EU countries, for obvious reasons, do not talk about the state of their arsenals, and in addition, they do not publish the exact features of the new aid program. However, the supplier countries will receive compensation for the allocated shots.
Almost half of the allocated money will be spent on the manufacture of new shells specifically for delivery to Ukraine. Apparently, now the participants of the plan are looking for manufacturers with the necessary competencies, solving organizational issues, etc. Appropriate contracts will reportedly appear in the coming months.
Several European countries now have their own production of 155 mm artillery ammunition. These are Germany, France, Czech Republic, Slovakia, etc. Other states, such as Bulgaria and Romania, also have an ammunition industry. However, their enterprises cannot yet produce NATO rounds and need to be restructured.
It cannot be ruled out that some of the orders will go to foreign enterprises. These can be factories from the USA or foreign "daughters" of the German industry. So, finished products can come from Australia or South Africa, depending on the available opportunities.
Howitzer M777 moments before the defeat. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
However, the production of shells at all available sites does not guarantee the solution of the tasks in the required volumes and within the desired time frame. European industry is already facing rising prices for resources, raw materials and energy, which in itself makes it difficult to work. In the future, an additional deterioration in the situation is possible, which also will not help the mass production of shells.
Needs and opportunities
In early March, the American edition of the Financial Times called the current needs of Ukrainian formations in artillery rounds. With reference to the documents and statements of the Kyiv regime, it was reported that more than 350 NATO-caliber shells are required monthly to continue the defense and counteroffensive. So far, the consumption of 155-mm products does not exceed 11 thousand per month, and the share of Soviet-style ammunition remains high.
It is easy to calculate that at the current level of consumption, the million shells promised by the European Union will be enough for several years of hostilities. However, Kyiv wants dozens of times more ammunition. At the same time, it is not difficult to calculate exactly how desires diverge from possibilities. Thus, the supply of a million shells per year implies the transfer of an average of 83-85 thousand items per month - this is still below Kyiv's desires.
Whether the European industry will be able to reach the required production rates is a big question. Perhaps enterprises from several countries can jointly fulfill their part of the overall plan. However, it should be borne in mind that the industry will not only have to work for Ukraine, but also replenish the depleted reserves of their own countries.
Profitable contracts
Attention should be paid to the financial part of the new European plan. More than 2 billion euros are going to be spent on the purchase of shells for Ukraine. More than half of this amount is allocated for the purchase of ready-made ammunition from stock. The supplying countries, having provided the shots, will receive compensation for them. How much is due for each projectile has not yet been reported. But there is no doubt that the participants in such purchases will not suffer financially.
Destroyed M777 howitzer. Photo Telegram / Dambiev
A similar situation is expected in the context of new production. The cost of products of new series will definitely include the increased price of energy and raw materials. This will lead to a reduction in the possible volume of purchases, but the contractors of the contracts will not suffer. In addition, responsible persons who contributed to the emergence of production plans will benefit.
Purchases and production of shells will be paid for by the European Peace Fund. Considering all the circumstances, there is reason to talk about a banal redistribution of "pan-European" funds in favor of individual enterprises and officials associated with them. Even in the conditions of the energy crisis and the deterioration of the international situation, they do not forget about their own interests and implement various schemes.
Help and benefit
Thus, European countries do not refuse further assistance to the Kyiv regime and even drew up another plan. It provides for the transfer of 1 million shells during the year, which, as expected, will cover the bulk of the needs of Ukrainian artillery in the near future.
The feasibility of such a plan is still questionable. The situation is such that its execution may face certain difficulties that will negatively affect the timing and / or volumes of deliveries. However, the main thing in the new plan is funding. And the development of money will definitely pass without problems and delays.
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