Patriot air defense systems on their way to Ukraine: are these systems capable of affecting the course of the NWO
On March 10, Russian media, citing the Financial Times newspaper reported that Ukraine allegedly received one of two Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) promised by the United States and Germany, but has not yet put it into operation. As a result, this information turned out to be unreliable, because after some time the Financial Times journalists made corrections to the material and made a clarification in the footnote below - “the initially reported information that Ukraine had already received the first Patriot system does not correspond to reality.”
The material in the English newspaper itself was a bit different: it said that Ukraine needed modern air defense systems, since those Russian missiles that were shot down over Ukraine were mainly subsonic cruise missiles, while high-velocity and ballistic missiles, including "Daggers" always hit targets. Because the Ukrainian Air Force does not have the ability to shoot them down. Appeals in the spirit of “give Ukrainians more modern weapons” can often be found in materials on the pages of the Western media, this has already become commonplace.
According to the Financial Times journalists, Ukraine's air defense has improved markedly over the past year, but it still lacks ground-to-air capabilities to intercept fast-moving ballistic missiles, primarily Kinzhals. In general, the English newspaper praised the Kinzhal missile, but they did not understand why it was used to strike at the energy infrastructure of Ukraine.
The Kinzhal is a scarce and highly sophisticated ballistic missile designed to overcome the most advanced air defense systems. It can fly at 10 times the speed of sound. This is one of the few specialized systems that would require NATO, in the event of a clash with Russia, to be careful about how it decides to use them… Using precious sophisticated weapons to strike infrastructure when weaker weapons could be used , confusing",
- writes the edition.
So, the Patriot air defense system is not yet in Ukraine, but there is no doubt that it will appear there soon. And it is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles and aircraft.
How effective is this complex? And how much can he influence the course of a special military operation? These questions will be discussed in this article.
SAM Patriot: the first experience of use
The first Patriot air defense systems were deployed by the US Air Force in the mid-80s. The Patriot was one of the first theatre-of-war (TOD) air defense systems designed to defend U.S. troops and U.S. allies stationed overseas against short-range missiles.
Developments in this area were spurred on by the experience of the 1991 Gulf War. During this conflict, Iraq fired up to 88 Al-Hussein missiles at cities and military bases in Israel and Saudi Arabia. Al-Hussein was a modified Scud-type missile with a range of approximately 600 km, a small conventional warhead, and extremely low accuracy [1].
The first of the theater missile defense systems - the Patriot complex in the PAC-2 variant, designed to equip the US Ground Forces - by the time the Iraqis invaded Kuwait in 1990, had just begun to enter service. The pace of production was accelerated, and the complexes were rushed to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia: they arrived just in time to intercept 44 of the missiles launched by the Iraqis (the rest were too far off course, and there was no point in destroying them) [1].
During the course of the war, the Patriot was touted as a highly effective weapon, which may have been part of the reason Israel stayed out of the conflict. In fact, the Iraqi Scuds were too fast and (accidentally) too maneuverable for PAC-2 missiles, and most of the interceptions were unsuccessful [2].
The unsuccessful experience of using the Patriot complex during the 1991 Gulf War contributed to the fact that the Americans modified this complex. In particular, the PAC-2 variant used a radar-guided interceptor missile with a conventional warhead, and was originally developed for air defense missions, but was subsequently modified, as a result of which it received a new warhead and fuse for use against ballistic missiles. After 1991, the Patriot air defense system in general and the PAC-2 anti-missile in particular underwent a series of significant upgrades.
In addition, in 2001, the US Army began to receive a new anti-missile PAC-3. This interceptor missile, specifically designed for missile defense missions, has a smaller size, greater maneuverability, range and height reach than the PAC-2, and it is equipped with a contact-strike warhead [1].
It gave results. For example, during the war with Iraq in 2003, the Iraqi Armed Forces launched 9 Scuds at the positions of the Americans and their allies, and all of them were shot down.
Modern modernization of the Patriot complex and its characteristics
In 2002, the only massive land-based air defense systems in the US armed forces (BC) were the Patriot PAC-3 long-range air defense systems and the Stinger MANPADS. At the same time, the only short-range means were FIM-92 missiles from Stinger MANPADS, and they were used from various platforms: Stinger MANPADS (MANPADS, Man-ponable air-defense system), short-range air defense systems M1097 Avenger, infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) air defense M2 Bradley, universal launchers MML (Multi-Mission Launcher) [3].
At the moment, the Patriot complex remains the main air defense system against a wide range of air targets at medium and high altitudes. In addition to this, the Patriot air defense system plays the role of a ballistic missile interceptor. The Patriot air defense system includes air interception missiles and a multifunctional radar subsystem. At the moment, an improved version of this air defense system is being operated - the Patriot PAC-3, which was put into service in 2001. The AN/MPQ-53 multifunctional radar is used in the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system for detecting, tracking and illuminating targets, tracking missiles and transmitting commands to them [3].
The main performance characteristics (TTX) of the AN / MPQ-53 radar are as follows:
– operating wavelength 5,5–6,7 cm (4–6 GHz);
– view sector in search mode: in azimuth from +45° to –45°;
- detection range: with EPR targets: 0,1 m² (small UAVs or missile warhead) - 70 km; 0,5 m² (medium UAVs - missile) - 100 km; 1,5 m² (large UAV or fighter) - 130 km; 10 m² (bomber) - 180 km;
- the number of simultaneously tracked targets - up to 125;
- maximum speed of tracked targets - 2 m / s;
- target detection time - 8-10 seconds.
In 2017, the Patriot air defense system began to undergo a large-scale modernization program under the PBD8 (Post-Deployment Build 8) project, and by 2019, 2/3 of the complexes in service with the US BC have already undergone modernization. The main modernization works include the replacement of the radar with a new multifunctional station AN / MPQ-65A and the transition to digital signal processing. This will ensure an increase in the detection range of air defense systems up to 230–240 km, as well as increase the noise immunity of the radar. About this, in particular, "Military Review" Reported in August 2019 of the year.
The main means of defeating the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system is the MIM-104 ZUP. The maximum firing range of this missile at a ballistic target is 20 kilometers, and at an aerodynamic target 80 kilometers (minimum 3 km), the maximum height of the target is 24-25 km, the maximum speed of the air targets hit is 1 m / s.
Modern experience in the use of Patriot air defense systems
September 2019 attack drones at one of the world's largest oil refineries, Abqaiq in eastern Saudi Arabia caused a lot of media noise because the Patriot and Hawk systems could not cope with the UAVs. This allowed, among other things, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to criticize the low efficiency of the American Patriot air defense systems, which could not repel an attack on the Saudis' largest oil facilities.
As Doctor of Technical Sciences Sergey Makarenko notes in his monograph “Counteraction to Unmanned Aerial Vehicles”, the negative experience of the combat use of the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system against UAVs during their attack on September 14, 2019 of oil refineries in Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudi Arabia showed that that these air defense systems have extremely low effectiveness against small-sized low-flying UAVs [3].
But the fact is that the Patriot air defense system is not designed to destroy drones. "Patriot" must first of all provide protection against enemy bombers and operational-tactical missiles. As noted by the same S. Makarenko, the characteristics of the radar of this air defense system do not allow detecting and tracking small-sized UAVs at a long range with high reliability.
Small-sized UAVs are, in principle, a problem for any air defense system, including the Russian one. For example, the results of field tests of the same Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system demonstrate that firing missile weapons at small-sized UAVs is practically impossible, and the Strela-10MZ air defense system turned out to be capable of hitting obsolete mini-UAVs only in daytime conditions with low efficiency [3].
Patriot air defense systems are purchased from the United States mainly not to combat drones. Taiwan, in particular, purchased these systems from the Americans for the reason that the Patriot PAK-3 air defense system is capable of firing not only at aerodynamic targets, but also at missile warheads in a passive flight path (at the fall stage). Given the modern equipment of this complex, its radar is quite capable of detecting launches of ballistic and other missiles not only from the territory of the DPRK (under the pretext that North Korea had nuclear missiles, these systems were sold to Taiwan), but also from neighboring China.
As for aircraft and ballistic missiles, here the Patriot air defense system has proven itself relatively well. So, according to open sources, in September 2014, the Israeli Patriot air defense system shot down a Syrian Su-24 bomber that flew into the Israeli-occupied territory of the Golan Heights, and in October 2017, a Saudi Arabian Patriot shot down a ballistic missile with a range of 750 kilometers launched by the Houthis near the Riyadh metropolitan airport.
To what extent will the Patriot complexes affect the military conflict in Ukraine?
Now let's consider the main question - how much can the Patriot complexes affect the course of the military conflict in Ukraine?
It should be emphasized right away that this complex has not been tested against the Russian Kinzhal ballistic missiles, and the Americans themselves do not know how effective it will be.
In particular, the coordinator for strategic communications at the US National Security Council, John Kirby, noted in an interview with CNN that the American anti-aircraft missile system will not help Ukraine repel Russian cruise missile attacks.
“Patriot is really designed to fight ballistic missiles. It is not as effective against cruise missiles and certainly cannot be effective against drones.”
he said, adding that the ability to repel attacks with hypersonic missiles is "limited."
That is, with a high probability, Patriot air defense systems will not be very effective against Russian missiles. However, even if we assume that the effectiveness of these air defense against missiles will be high, then two Patriot systems will be able to close the sky only over a very limited area, for example, over part of Kyiv.
Where will the Patriot air defense system pose a greater threat to the Russian aviation, however, taking into account the fact that the Russian Air Force has not been able to gain air supremacy in Ukraine, and the number of sorties of our aircraft and helicopters is already limited (mostly they strike directly on the front lines), it is unlikely that two complexes somehow seriously affect the situation.
Quite often one can come across the opinion that the United States is delaying the transfer of the Patriot air defense system to Kiev, because they are afraid that it may end up in the hands of the Russian army, but it has nothing to do with reality. At the end of last year, Mikhail Khodarenok, a military observer for Gazeta.Ru, rightly noted that the Patriot is a weapon far from the front line, and its starting positions will most likely be located deep in the rear of the Ukrainian army, for example, on the cover of Kiev or objects on Pravoberezhnaya Ukraine.
“To capture the Patriot in this case, it is necessary to carry out almost a front-line offensive operation, but even in this case, success is far from obvious. In any case, not a single M142 HIMARS combat vehicle has yet fallen into the hands of the Russian military, what can we say about the Patriot air defense system, ”
- noted expert. Moreover, Khodarenok expressed doubt that the Russian Armed Forces would be able to destroy this complex, given that this is a highly mobile system, and it will most likely not be in the same position for a long time.
Summing up, we can state that the presence of two Patriot air defense systems in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, although it will strengthen Ukrainian air defense, will not seriously affect the overall situation in the zone of military operation.
References.
[1]. Missile defense: confrontation or cooperation? / ed. A. Arbatov and V. Dvorkin; Moscow Carnegie Center. - M.: Russian Political Encyclopedia (ROSSPEN), 2012.
[2]. See Lewis GN, Postol T. Video Evidence on the Effectiveness of Patriot during the 1991 Gulf War // Science and Global Security. - 1993. - Vol. 4. - No. 1. - P. 1–64.
[3]. Makarenko S. I. Counteraction to unmanned aerial vehicles. Monograph. - St. Petersburg: Science-intensive technologies, 2020.
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