F-16 in the sky of Ukraine: they think for a long time, they do it quietly
If you calmly and carefully look at how events are developing with the supply of military equipment to Ukraine, then it is already quite possible to conclude that the F-16 will fall into service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A scarecrow, a carcass, with mercenaries in the cabins, but they will fall. And with the F-16, it will be realistic to see Mirages in the Ukrainian sky.
Why not? The plane is very expensive. To give away the old one in order to get a new one in its place - this is God himself (the Minister of Finance) ordered, because it is very profitable: local enterprises are loaded, workers plow and so on. True, all this is valid for those countries who have their own aviation industry.
Therefore, the simply wild initiative of the Netherlands and Poland looks very intricate. However, everything is much simpler than it seems.
In the United States, they are still “thinking” whether to give Ukraine planes or not. A normal plot plot, if you remember how support for Ukraine by the NATO bloc began in general.
- We will give only the old Soviet weapons.
- We will give the old Soviet weapons and quite a few Bayraktar-type UAVs.
- We'll give you some Javelins.
- We will give just a few artillery systems. And several counter-battery stations.
- We will give as many artillery systems as we can and a couple of HIMARS /
- HIMARS will give more, but without long-range missiles. And think about tanks.
- We'll give tanks, but not today. But we will. BMP? And what about BMPs, these are not tanks ...
- We'll give tanks, yes. We will not give planes, although we will think about it.
I think the analogy works quite well. While the United States is now saying out loud that the supply of aircraft to Ukraine is a matter of the distant future, if at all possible, Poland and the Netherlands are already seriously considering options for transferring their F-16s to Ukraine.
Yes, and in the States themselves, support for the idea of \u16b\uXNUMXbspending aircraft and training crews is gradually growing. The F-XNUMXs will be used to patrol Ukrainian airspace and will be especially useful against Russian cruise missiles. At least, that's what the Ukrainians say, who motivate the supply of aircraft to their armed forces.
Indeed, the F-16, whose design comes from the 80s of the last century, looks quite normal in this form. It is not as costly and dangerous as, say, sending the same F-22s and F-35s to Ukraine.
As one US military official said, "Let's face it, nuclear war is not going to happen over F-16s."
It is possible that it will not happen. And it may happen otherwise. The drawing of "red lines" by the Russian authorities may sooner or later end (all with the same zero result), the question of the use of nuclear weapons (which, we note, have long been threatened by some Russian politicians of the second echelon) can be staged in a new and not entirely beautiful perspective.
Ukraine started the war not with the best Air Force: 43 MiG-29s and 34 Su-27s. Plus about 30 Su-25s and 16 Su-24s. Not much. Moreover, all the aircraft were built in Soviet times and at the time of the outbreak of hostilities, the age of the aircraft was 30 years or more.
Yes, the air forces of the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, and now NATO members, generously shared spare parts and even entire aircraft. However, a year of hostilities depleted the supplies needed both in NATO countries and in the Ukrainian Air Force.
As a result, that side came to the understanding that in 2023 either Ukraine will be left without aircraft at all, or the allies simply have to do something so that the Ukrainian Air Force continues to be at least something combat-ready.
One of these solutions was the option of transferring F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters to Ukraine. The F-16, originally designed as a low cost fighter, has evolved over the past four decades into an effective multirole strike fighter. Previously popular among the NATO Air Force due to its simplicity and low price, the F-16 is gradually being replaced in their units by the F-35 "Lightning II".
Today, many want to change the F-16 to the F-35. And here we get a simple scheme: as new F-35s arrive in the air forces of NATO countries, such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Poland and others, the military departments decommission their F-16s, presenting the possibility of sending them to Ukraine.
Accordingly, this process will free up and give away a large amount of spare parts and ammunition that are no longer needed by F-35 operators.
To what extent can the F-16 strengthen the Ukrainian Air Force?
Much. Fighters are generally dual-purpose aircraft: they can be used offensively to seize control of the airspace of another country, and are no less effective in defending their own space.
If Ukraine gets F-16s, they are unlikely to be limited to a defensive role. This is not the HIMARS complex, for which it is enough not to give tactical missiles. But here difficulties arise with the use, since aviation operations in the NVO zone are generally hampered by air defense counteraction from both sides.
You can consider the F-16 as an air defense component. Considering that the F-16, like all 4th generation aircraft, was originally designed for use against bombers and attack aircraft, it can also be effective against Russian Caliber, 9M729 and Kh-101 cruise missiles. The F-16C AN / APG-68 radar can detect such targets in view mode at a distance of up to 50 kilometers.
Russia in 2022 has repeatedly demonstrated the effectiveness of massive missile strikes. The F-16, armed with AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, which have already demonstrated their worth when launched from NASAMS ground-based launchers, could patrol the airspace over Ukraine, quickly responding to cruise missile launches at targets and intercepting them before approaching the cities.
Poland and the Netherlands have said they will send F-16s as both countries are already on the F-35 customer list. Poland is ready to transfer 36 late-model F-16s in exchange for 32 Lightning II F-35s, which, according to the contract, should begin arriving in 2026.
Unlike other F-16 operators, Poland was not preparing to decommission its F-16s anytime soon, with 2026 still a long time away. However, Poland's offer to transfer the F-16 to Ukraine could be the very cornerstone that triggers the avalanche. As at one time, the first self-propelled guns "Crab" from Poland caused acts of donation of other artillery systems from NATO member countries.
With the Netherlands even more interesting. The country had a very impressive air force, consisting of more than two hundred of the same F-16s. Over time, the country's air fleet was reduced to 68 aircraft, but from among those decommissioned, a fair amount of aircraft could easily be allocated for transfer to Ukraine. Especially considering that the Netherlands will receive their F-35s before Poland.
Many experts (including those in Ukraine) believe that Ukrainian pilots will need about six months of training to master the F-16. The Ukrainian military department selected about 50 people from among the Air Force pilots with a decent knowledge of English.
Biden says no, but does that mean no?
And US President Joe Biden, when asked if the United States would send F-16s to Ukraine, said no. But we remember very well that he answered the question about the transfer of M1A2 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in exactly the same way. However, as soon as the level of approving noise reached its maximum, Mr. Biden immediately reversed his original decision.
Therefore, such a development of events will be quite natural, as in the case of tanks. The US public will raise a fuss, express approval and ... planes will go to Ukraine.
More precisely, they will not come from the USA. For the first time, at least.
It will turn out approximately like with German tanks. Everyone, from Kyiv to Washington, really wanted the Leopards to be in the Ukrainian army. Berlin resisted as much as it could, but in the end the Germans were outplayed. The Americans and the British announced the supply of their tanks to Ukraine, the Germans simply had nowhere to go. And the Leopards will be at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Whether this is good or not is a separate discussion.
So even if Biden continues to say no, American planes could still end up in Ukraine. They just come from the bins of Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark and other countries. And then, as expected, the United States will catch up. Actually, nothing of the kind is needed from the States, the retraining of flight personnel and the modernization of existing aircraft. Well, the release of the F-35, which will have to replace the F-16 transferred to Ukraine.
And there, the same Germans and French can catch up. The French have completely unnecessary Mirage 2000s, which it would be nice to replace with Rafales, and the Germans have Tornados, which they would also like to donate to the altar instead of the F-35.
So the Ukrainian Air Force will have planes. It is not so important whether it will be F-16, Mirage or Tornado. The important thing is that the West will do its best to drag out this war with arms supplies, the purpose of which is completely clear today: the destruction of the Russian world does not matter under what banner.
And while various U.S. officials continue to say "no" to arms supplies to Ukraine, others will train Ukrainian pilots, recruit mercenaries from other countries' pilots, and repair and upgrade old F-16s in other countries.
Nothing personal, just business.
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