The transfer of Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine is possible: you should not wait with trepidation, but you need to be ready
Source: rare-gallery.com
As they say, this has never happened, and here it is again. In general, talk about the fact that the German government is already at a low start and is sleeping and seeing how to quickly transfer Leopards-2 to Ukraine appears before each announcement of the next package of military assistance to Kiev. However, even without a reason, such headlines are periodically full of large media.
More recently, a new round of passions around the German steel "cat" has begun, but at a more official level. It all started with the fact that about a week ago, the German newspaper Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung published an article stating that the United States was allegedly not particularly against the fact that Germany would start deliveries of Leopards-2 to Ukraine, they say, if you make such a decision, then go ahead and with a song. Such an unspoken agreement was reached between Biden's national security adviser Sullivan and Scholz's foreign policy adviser Pletner back in October.
News made a lot of noise - mainly among the Ukrainian media. But the long-awaited "Leopards" in the latest package of military assistance to Ukraine at the moment did not appear.
And here the question arises: can they transfer something? And then what to do with this goodness?
Cheaper to exchange than to give directly
There is no need to be under any illusions. In fact, NATO can transfer everything to Ukraine, including the notorious Leopards-2. And practice shows this bad trend. If in the first months of the special military operation, Washington was seriously afraid of the escalation of the conflict and kept Kiev on a cut-down "ration", then later the same HIMARS, self-propelled artillery mounts, air defense systems, and so on have already become an objective reality. Of course, you need to believe in the best, but you need to prepare for the worst - obviously it will not be superfluous.
But in the near future, the Leopards should not be expected, and there are several reasons for this.
So far, quite frankly, a strong deficit tanks for Ukraine no. You can say as much as you like that NATO is literally on its knees from a lack of weapons, but the North Atlantic Alliance is able to send a couple of hundred heavy combat vehicles to its eastern neighbor. Moreover, the Soviet model - without fear of the very escalation of the conflict.
So, for example, preparations are already in full swing for the repair and deep modernization of the T-72 in the amount of 90 units in the Czech Republic. The Pentagon and the Dutch government agreed to buy them for Kyiv - each side will pay for 45 tanks.
Source: topwar.ru
Slovenia is ready to hand over about 30 M-84s (the Yugoslav version of the T-72). The government of this country estimated its military property very cheaply. 28 M-55S (deep modernization of the T-55) have already left for Ukraine in exchange for German trucks and tankers. The “eighty-fourths” can also follow for a bribe in the form, again, of German armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. But here, by the way, one of the limiting factors is not their most satisfactory condition, however, they can put on the move.
Tank M-84. Source: wikipedia.org
The Slovaks will also give their “seventy-two” to the mountain if they wish and with a worthy reward. Previously, the issue with their tanks had already been raised, and the Slovak government was ready to sacrifice its armored vehicles in exchange for the German Leopards-2, but in the end they sent only infantry fighting vehicles to Kiev, but the issue hung with the tanks - they demanded an equivalent exchange from the German side. No progress has yet been observed in this matter, but with a mutual agreement, everything can be resolved.
The situation is similar in Poland. There, the stock of T-72 vehicles is enough for several battalions of a complete set, but, as in the case of the Slovaks, the issue rests on payment in kind.
The Polish PT-91 Twardy is a deeply modernized tank of the T-72 series. Source: wikipedia.org
Croats and even Macedonians also have "seventy-two". Also, Romania, with due "pressure", can provide its modernized T-55s.
The stock of Soviet-type tanks in NATO countries gives some confidence that in the near future our military will not face any Leopard-2s or even Abrams on the battlefield. And for the Germans, this state of affairs is actually quite beneficial. And that's why.
According to The Military Balance 2022, in the German Bundeswehr in active service, that is, actively used and included in the state of mechanized units, there are only 284 Leopard-2 tanks. Of these, 225 vehicles of modifications 2A5 and 2A6, as well as 59 units of modernization 2A7 / 2A7V. Most likely, even the most notorious "hawks" in the German government will not dare to withdraw them from the units, exposing entire battalions.
Hence the conclusion that under the "mobilization" can fall into storage cars - the old "Leopards" of the 2A4 series. At the beginning of 2022, that is, before all the events related to the special operation in Ukraine, the Germans had 55 of them. These are exactly the tanks that are in a state of full complement and after the depreservation can get on the move without any lengthy repair work and so on. At the same time, in addition to the official list number of these tanks, there are a number (perhaps dozens of units) of unaccounted for copies that require deep repairs and bringing them to running condition.
Leopard-2A7. Source: mavink.com
It seems to be not a steel horde, but they will be able to give out about a hundred cars to the mountain. However, do not forget that Germany is bound by "circular deals" and is obliged to replenish the armed forces of NATO countries with equipment in exchange for the one that was sent by them to Ukraine. For example, already 30 "Leopard-2A4" are reserved by iron - half will go to the Czech Republic for their T-72, and the second half will go to the Slovaks for their 30 transferred infantry fighting vehicles. And the list will grow.
Under such conditions, it is much more profitable for the German government to continue this exchange, since one Leopard for two pieces of equipment is somewhat cheaper than raking out all the stocks for shipment directly. So far, this scenario is the most likely.
In this vein, the statements of German representatives that, they say, we will send tanks to Ukraine only when other countries start doing the same, look quite logical.
Firstly, the appearance of Western-style tanks on the fronts of the Northern Military District is, no matter what they say about the red lines, a clear escalation factor. Germany will not do this alone with tacit approval.
And secondly, it’s much more profitable for the Germans to pool their efforts so as not to deprive the Bundeswehr of equipment - NATO countries have plenty of Leopard-2s, they can share it too. The only question is who will pay for the banquet.
This collective decision is obviously still a long way off, if it is taken at all. So many hundreds of "Leopards-2" on the railway platforms in Lviv is an extremely unlikely phenomenon so far. But if Germany decides to take such a step alone and sends about a hundred tanks (more is unlikely to succeed), is it worth it to be afraid?
What if they do pass it on?
As mentioned above, the possibility of transferring Leopards-2 to Ukraine should not be ruled out in any case. However, even if these combat vehicles are sent to the zone of a special military operation, some difficulties of a practical nature may arise.
Here, of course, I would like to mention the need to train crews for German "cats". In fact, this is not such a big problem. Yes, even for experienced Ukrainian tankers, mastering the Leopards-2 will not do without thorough practical training. This includes not only the actual operation of the tank itself - driving, the interaction of crew members, working with the fire control complex and other things. You also need to be able to make repairs in the field. But all this is solvable and can only affect the time period from the announcement of sending tanks to Ukraine until they appear there.
The whole snag is in the variety and all the consequences that follow from it. "Leopard" is not a Soviet car, therefore, it is logical that there is no wide range of spare parts for it in Ukraine. The West, of course, will put them on stream, but there are big doubts that this will make it possible to "spray" German tanks in different parts on different sectors of the front. Still, no one canceled the logistics, as well as the headache of the suppliers, which with the "Germans" in this case will only intensify.
However, spare parts are not so bad. After all, ammunition is a much more actively consumed material. And if the abundance of variegated T-64, T-72 and T-80 is still completely unified in terms of caliber and shells, then Leo with its 120-mm rounds is knocked out of the common track, like the M-55S with their caliber 105 mm.
Leopard-2A4 is so far the only possible tank that Germany can transfer. Source: wiki.warthunder.ru
Of course, the Leopards will not become useless from this, so we will not support the general trend of capping. Tanks are serious. And, as Aleksey Kuznetsov, an expert at Military Review, noted, the same conditional hundred of these vehicles (depending on how much they give) will be concentrated on one or two sectors of the front to minimize logistical delays. So they won’t trample on the entire contact zone with a shaft, you shouldn’t panic. But it will be necessary to provide reconnaissance and maximum operational training in dangerous areas.
Difficulties will also arise with the repair of this German equipment. So far, there is no certainty that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to create full-fledged repair bases that will provide a full cycle of repair of the "Germans". Most likely, completely killed tanks will be sent to Poland, where there are all conditions for the restoration of these vehicles. And this, again, is the time spent in the interval from “went in for repairs” to “back in service”. In such circumstances, it is not necessary to talk about possible ongoing clashes with hordes of Leopards.
But we shouldn't be complacent either. Most likely, if the transfer of tanks is ever approved, then Kyiv will receive Leopards in the 2A4 modification. In terms of the level of armor, they do not bypass the T-72B3 or T-90A / M as a whole, but due to a fairly good fire control complex and a wide range of ammunition, they can do things not only in terms of anti-tank combat (which is actually not the case in the NWO zone already common), but also in the aspect of “picking” fortified positions with manpower, which has already become a classic. So the anti-tank gentlemen - ATGM operators, RPG shooters and other "nightmare" tanks - have the last word.
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