Empty talk: NATO-style tanks for Ukraine
The Kyiv regime continues to beg for tanks from foreign partners. First of all, he wants to get modern NATO-style armored vehicles with high performance characteristics. However, so far only obsolete equipment of Soviet standards has been transferred to Ukraine. And instead of foreign MBT Abrams and Leopard, she receives only dubious promises and assurances of friendship and help.
Empty talk
The Ukrainian authorities started talking about the need for an urgent delivery of foreign tanks back in February-March. In the future, this topic was repeatedly raised by both Kyiv and foreign officials. The Kyiv regime seriously said that foreign countries were obliged to provide it with modern tanks like M1 Abrams or Leopard 2. They promised to protect Europe and the USA, democratic values, etc. with their help.
As you know, requests for the supply of tanks were heard, but executed in a specific way. Ukraine received several batches of MBT with a total number of hundreds of vehicles. At the same time, it was only about Soviet-style equipment, moreover, morally and physically obsolete. Another episode of such assistance is taking place right now. Slovenia decided to give Ukraine the M-55S tanks, which are a deep modernization of the old T-55.
Tank M1A2 at the signing ceremony of the Polish-American agreement. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Poland
In recent weeks, new interesting information has been received about the hypothetical deliveries of modern MBTs. Immediately, two foreign states capable of providing modern armored vehicles revealed the current state of affairs. They noted the fundamental possibility of transferring tanks and indicated that they were considering such a scenario. However, nothing was said about the start of deliveries. Probably not planned at the moment.
Recent statements
In mid-September, the German press reported that disputes continued in the German government over the possible transfer of tanks and other armored vehicles to Ukraine. The idea of supplying "Leopards", and both major versions, is gaining more and more support. However, she also has detractors, and at that time it was not clear whether she would receive approval.
A few days later, German Defense Minister Christina Lambrecht clarified plans of this kind. She did not rule out the transfer of MBT Leopard 1/2 to the Ukrainian regime, but such measures can only be taken after consultation with foreign partners. Germany does not want to act alone.
One of the M1A2 SEP v.2 tanks transferred to Poland for training, July 2022. Photo by the Polish Ministry of Defense
On September 19, at a press conference at the Pentagon, the opinion of the American authorities was voiced. A representative of the department said that in the previous week, several Ukrainian parliamentarians had been negotiating with US congressmen and the military on the topic of military assistance. Tanks were also discussed along with other samples.
A Pentagon spokesman agreed that the Ukrainian army needed tanks. He also recalled that the American side made every effort to supply Ukraine with Soviet-style MBTs from European countries. In the future, the transition of the Ukrainian army to NATO armored vehicles is not excluded. Similar scenarios are being considered by the US military, but no decision has been made.
In fact, Germany and the United States reported that they were not going to transfer modern Abrams and Leopards to Ukraine yet. In addition, they did not specify whether such plans might change in the future. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian authorities reacted predictably. They again requested foreign armored vehicles and promised to win with its help.
Reasons for failure
Hypothetical deliveries of NATO tanks to Ukraine have been discussed for several months, but this topic does not receive actual development. Foreign partners assure Kyiv of their support and readiness to help with equipment and weapons. At the same time, not all samples can be transferred.
Tanks Leopard 2A4. KMW Photos
It has been mentioned in the recent past that certain modern weapons could over-strengthen the Ukrainian army. Third countries are afraid of Russia's reaction to such processes and therefore refrain from part of the supplies. It is likely that modern MBTs are viewed in this way, and their transfer is associated with potential risks.
Foreign ministries of defense should understand that any piece of equipment that falls into the hands of Ukrainian forces is a potential trophy for the Russian army. For the most interesting products, incl. tanks Abrams or Leopard 2 will open a real hunt. Having received such a trophy, Russian specialists will carefully study it, which will lead to understandable consequences.
It has been repeatedly noted that Ukrainian servicemen have no experience with NATO tanks. They will have to be trained, and a high level of training is required. Otherwise, all possible risks increase, incl. the probability of hitting equipment to the enemy.
It is also necessary to take into account the financial aspects of military-technical assistance. Modern tanks are expensive, and supplying enough vehicles would be prohibitively expensive. A battalion or regimental set of MBTs can be more expensive than any of the previously allocated military aid packages.
Newer Leopard 2A6. KMW Photos
So, in April, Poland and the United States signed an agreement on the supply of 250 M1A2C tanks, related equipment and equipment. The total value of the contract reached 4,75 billion dollars. The average cost of a tank under this contract is 19 million dollars, and the rearmament of one battalion requires more than a billion. Modern versions of the Leopard 2 tank are also not cheap and are hardly suitable in this regard to provide assistance.
Scarce item
The rapid delivery of a large number of tanks is also hampered by other factors related to the state of the available fleet and production capabilities. It turned out that modern MBTs are almost in short supply, and it is not so easy to find the required amount of equipment, even if we are talking about deliveries on a commercial basis.
Thus, since the spring, German officials have repeatedly reported that the supply of Leopards-2 threatens the security of Germany. The available tanks are barely enough for the Bundeswehr, and the reduction of such a fleet carries certain risks. The production of new tanks or the restructuring of existing ones also face significant restrictions, as well as additional time and money.
Poland has already suffered from these processes. According to the agreements of the previous months, she had to transfer to the Kyiv regime all her T-72s of various modifications. To make up for such losses, Germany was supposed to provide Warsaw with the Leopard 2 MBT. However, it later turned out that the German side could provide only 20 tanks, and with delivery next year.
The last version of the German tank is the Leopard 2A7V. KMW Photos
The situation with the American M1 Abrams also has its own characteristics. Thus, it was reported that under the latest contract, Poland will receive 250 new tanks. However, the production of "Abrams" has long been closed, and in fact we are talking about the restructuring of the MBT of old modifications, removed from storage or taken from combat units.
In general, foreign tank-building powers are experiencing serious difficulties with the production or modernization of equipment. Under such conditions, any new order for combat vehicles is of known interest to the manufacturer, but its execution may be postponed indefinitely.
The situation has not changed
Over the past few months, the Ukrainian authorities have been demanding that they be supplied with modern foreign MBTs of NATO standards. Foreign countries, in turn, help only old Soviet-style equipment and, it seems, are not going to transfer modern Abrams or Leopard 2. Such equipment is only mentioned in various statements so far and only in the future tense.
It is easy to see that in recent months, despite all the past events, the situation with tanks has not changed, and the rhetoric of the parties has remained the same. This suggests that nothing will change in the foreseeable future either. The Kyiv regime will continue to beg for tanks, and foreign partners will again assure of their readiness to help and at the same time look for excuses.
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