American analysts: by 2030, the Chinese Navy can catch up and overtake the American fleet
According to new studies and estimates, by 2030 the tonnage of the Chinese naval fleet can almost double. This is the opinion of many American experts, including the well-known Kyle Mizokami and Nash Cummins. Independently of each other, both analysts mentioned, based on data from the US Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), which, by pure chance, is located in Washington, DC, next to Admiral Farragut Square. That is, in a straight line 400 meters to the White House.
And in such a cozy place, ladies and gentlemen are sitting, who are calculating variations for the US Air Force and Navy. And they’re probably calculating well, because they’ve been sitting there since 1983.
So, according to CSBA research, China can increase the size and tonnage of its naval group, including aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines, by almost 40 percent in just eight years. That is, by 2030.
This conclusion was made on the basis that over the past less than nine years, China has almost doubled its composition, and if the process of building up forces continues at the same pace, then in another eight years the PRC fleet can again double both the composition and the tonnage.
Experts believe that with proper spending planning (something that the United States does not currently have), China can build two more aircraft carriers and at least four nuclear submarines armed with ballistic or cruise missiles.
In addition, many experts strongly draw attention to China's commercial fleet, which, if necessary, with a light wave turns into a huge anti-submarine fleet capable of paralyzing the actions of American submarines in the entire water area of China's near sea zone. And with a long-range swing, since fishing trawlers are equipped with an almost complete set of search tools. Yes, trawlers work to catch fish, but sonar doesn't care if it's a school of fish or a submarine.
The CSBA used an online tool it created, China's Strategic Choice Tool, to model how the Chinese government could fund its ongoing military expansion through 2030. The tool assumes a regular rise in defense spending of 3 percent and allows users to make certain strategic choices—say, forgo funding the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Ground Forces to fund the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy. In this program, the user can prioritize aircraft over ships, aircraft carriers over other ground combatants, and nuclear weapons. arms before the usual.
CSBA analysts concluded that China could afford to increase its carrier fleet from three to five by 2030, and the number of cruisers and destroyers from 36 to 60. It could also increase the number of Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines from six to ten . The total tonnage, or total weight, of the Chinese Navy's ships will increase from today's 1,3 million tons to around two million tons.
What about the USA? And the US has certain problems.
The US Navy in the Pacific Fleet has six aircraft carriers and 50 cruisers and destroyers. In addition, the fleet has eight nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles. This is a decent striking force, moreover, it can also be strengthened by the ships of the Atlantic Fleet.
The total tonnage of the US Navy worldwide is about 4,5 million tons. China has almost half. Bye.
Craig Hooper, head of the US Navy's Themistocles advisory group, speaking with analysts at Popular Mechanics, said it's important to keep the Chinese fleet under constant monitoring today.
The five aircraft carriers, if produced, would be in line with other estimates of Chinese military growth. These five full-fledged aircraft carriers, if built, will not only withstand the US carriers, but also the Japanese and South Korean carriers, as well as the new aircraft carriers of France and the UK, so as far as the military balance is concerned, I don’t see it changing much.
However, Mr. Cooper is clearly disingenuous. The Japanese "aircraft carriers" are the Kaga and Izumo helicopter carriers, which are being converted to carry the F-35B. However, in terms of quantitative composition, two Japanese ships will correspond to one Chinese ship, the Shandong.
"South Korean aircraft carrier" is still a project. Yes, considering how things are set in South Korea, they will build an aircraft carrier at their factories, it's only a matter of time. That's just how much of this time it will take to design and build - this is a separate conversation.
British aircraft carriers are sadness materialized. Not only are they still not armed, but they are constantly being pursued by breakdowns and improvements. And to call these ships combat ones is the same as putting them next to the Admiral Kuznetsov or the Chakri Narubet, a Thai aircraft carrier.
The French "Charles de Gaulle" is no better than its British counterparts. A candidate for the Fukushima Prize, frankly sick of his constant breakdowns, as a combat unit has about the same value as all of the above (except, of course, Shandong).
So if you look at the situation honestly, then the Americans should not count on the help of the allies, honestly.
Hooper also believes that more carriers will make the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy more predictable, grouping individual ships into carrier task forces and leaving fewer ships available for lower priority missions.
If we assume that China is building a naval force along the American lines, the emergence of Chinese carrier battle groups will reduce the number of independent Chinese surface fighters available for solo or small group missions. Carrier battlegroups are big sponges that absorb a lot of escort forces.
Let's say the solution here is simple: build more ships. There is no doubt that China will cope with this. The country has everything for this: labor, factories, resources. What is missing in terms of resources is that Russia stands behind it, which will easily help its neighbor, moreover, for yuan.
However, the US understands this. And they do not build illusions, because they are well aware that the potential of China in terms of production is great. As for human resources, here the PRC simply has a gigantic advantage over the United States, where a crisis of underproduction in the military sphere is clearly beginning. That is, the Americans do not have time to produce even what they need. The prospect is a catch-up-and-overrun race that China has every chance of winning.
In addition, the United States pays great attention to the so-called irregular fleet, which is able to mobilize China from its commercial and fishing fleet. The irregular fleet numbers several thousand ships and is a force to be reckoned with.
Hooper: “Until we start dealing with irregulars, we will miss the real forces that are changing the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region”.
Meanwhile, China continues to lay down and launch its warships.
Xu Zhen Zun, Chinese Emperor of the Song Dynasty, said: “Endure what is hard to bear and follow those who are constantly making serious efforts to stand on their own feet”. The emperor, by the way, in his era spent more time on the throne than other emperors, which means he was worth something.
Perhaps Americans should do what the ancient Chinese emperor said. Especially if they do not want to see the dominance of the Chinese fleet in the Pacific.
In the meantime, the Chinese fleet has one and a half aircraft carriers (Liaoning should not be taken seriously), but Fujian has already been launched in June this year and work on it is in full swing. We will see how quickly the Chinese shipbuilders will succeed, the Shandong was built for six years, the Fujian was laid down in November 2018.
If Chinese shipbuilders continue at this pace, then yes, by 2030, having five aircraft carriers is quite realistic.
Moreover, the PLA Navy has 44 destroyers, 6 of which are (according to many) actually missile cruisers of project 055. The seventh ship of the series is preparing to enter service, the eighth is already being completed. Considering that the Chinese are not going to stop on eight ships, the upgraded project 055A has already been announced, and the construction of one ship of the series took 2-3 years (hello, Russia!), The conclusions can be drawn disappointing for the Americans.
In terms of surface ships, by 2030 China may actually have 5 aircraft carriers, 16 Project 055 and 055A guided missile cruisers, and up to 60 destroyers if tested Project 052 ships are built.
As for the nuclear submarines of projects 094/094A "Shan" (we deliberately do not look in the direction of strategic missile carriers), then everything is very opaque here. But given that the construction of a series of 6 ships began in 2001, the first boat went into operation in 2005, the construction of the series was completed in 2013, then doubling the number is quite realistic.
American experts are not in vain sounding the alarm. Already today, given the possibility of turning the fishing fleet into an anti-submarine one, China is at least no weaker than the United States in the region. Given the proximity of their shores and the created airfields on the islands, the alignment may not be in favor of the United States at all. And even more so in the future.
It's no secret that today the United States is not able to build and repair ships at the same pace as before. Unlike China. And in fact, here you can’t do anything quickly. It's like putting before the Russian shipbuilding industry today the task of building two aircraft carriers within 8 years. You can deliver, but you can do it... Roughly the same in the USA: shipyards are overloaded, factories do not have time to repair ships.
Therefore, it remains to "express concern" about China's shock communist pace. And hope for the help of allies. But we will talk about allies separately, this is a really different, no less fun topic.
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