Secret deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, known and possible
One of the AGM-88 missiles shot down in August. Photo Telegram / "Military informant"
Over the past months, the US and its allies have regularly reported on new military-technical assistance packages for Ukraine, and then reported on the shipment of promised supplies. Now it became known that some of these deliveries are carried out behind the scenes and without prior announcement. One episode of such clandestine assistance has already been confirmed, and there are speculations about the possibility of continuing such deliveries.
The secret becomes clear
At the end of July, the Ukrainian military leadership spoke about receiving foreign aviation anti-radar missiles. However, in the official lists of foreign deliveries of military-technical assistance, such weapon was missing. As a result, doubts arose in the Ukrainian reports.
In early August, new information appeared. It became known that Ukraine really has American-made AGM-88 HARM missiles and is trying to use them. In the future, fragments and fragments of such weapons were repeatedly found in different parts of the front, which indicated the transfer of a certain batch of these missiles.
The presence of debris and the lack of official information led to the obvious conclusion. The United States has begun supplying a new type of missile weapon and, possibly, auxiliary systems, but for some reason hides this. However, the situation soon cleared up.
MaxxPro armored cars on the wrong terrain. Photo Telegram / ChDambiev
On August 19, Washington approved another $775 million aid package to Ukraine. Along with other military products, it included AGM-88 missiles. Moreover, their transfer was announced openly for the first time. At the same time, a Pentagon representative noted that this is the second batch of such weapons. The first was secretly delivered earlier, and now these missiles are used with Ukrainian aircraft.
secret armor
In parallel, a similar story with armored vehicles. So, on August 10-11, trailers with American-made International MaxxPro armored cars were seen on the roads of Poland. Published photos and videos from random witnesses made it possible to talk about a batch of 15-18 cars. Obviously, this equipment was taken to the Ukrainian border for transfer to the Kyiv regime.
Soon all these assumptions were confirmed. In the new videos, MaxxPro have already traveled, allegedly, through Ukraine. In addition, a funny video appeared showing the peculiarities of the use of armored cars on the roads: one of them got stuck in the black soil, and they tried to pull it out with another car.
It should be noted that at the time of the appearance of such filming, the United States did not announce the delivery of MaxxPro armored cars. Officially, this equipment was included in the aid package approved on August 19, which provides for the dispatch of 40 vehicles. However, at the time of signing the document, almost half of the provided equipment was already in Ukraine.
New assumptions
On August 21, the American edition of Yahoo News continued the topic of unannounced deliveries. It recalled the recent attacks on Russian targets in Crimea. The Ukrainian side claims that they were carried out by saboteurs, but an alternative version is offered. Yahoo News cites the opinion of two former US special forces soldiers who believe that the strike could have been carried out by a long-range ATACMS missile for the HIMARS or MLRS complex. It is speculated that the US may have smuggled such weapons into Ukraine. However, no evidence is provided.
ATACMS missile launch. Ukraine is not given such weapons
On August 22, new interesting data was published by Politico in the National Security Daily section. From two unnamed sources familiar with the situation, they learned that the latest aid package, dated August 19, also had a covert element. Without an official announcement, the Pentagon is going to ship a number of M982 Excalibur guided artillery shells to Ukraine.
However, Politico makes a reservation and notes that this information is not confirmed. Moreover, if clandestine deliveries are actually being carried out or planned, official structures will not talk about them until they see fit. In this regard, it is proposed to monitor the situation and wait for new information.
The topic of covert deliveries of American weapons appeared in other foreign publications. It was also considered by the Russian press. Different opinions, forecasts and risk assessments are expressed. At the same time, new models of weapons that could be delivered to Ukraine without publicity or could be transferred in the near future have not yet been named.
Unspoken perspectives
Thus, two cases of covert delivery of weapons or equipment to Ukraine that have taken place in recent weeks are reliably known. First, anti-radar missiles were handed over to the Kyiv regime, and then deliveries of armored cars began. And only after their transfer and the start of operation, such deliveries were confirmed or included in the official plan.
Against the background of these events, which have confirmation, versions and rumors arise. Foreign experts and the press suggest that the United States could secretly ship other weapons required by Ukrainian formations. In the publications of recent days, operational-tactical missiles and corrected artillery shells are mentioned in this context. Moreover, the expansion of the range of such supplies is not excluded.
In general, a specific situation is emerging, and it is not yet clear how it will develop in the future. It appears that the US has tried out a new aid mechanism and may well use it again. At the same time, it is not known which samples will be supplied without publicity and how often they will resort to this method. However, another scenario cannot be ruled out, in which all deliveries will be carried out openly, even if with an announcement immediately before they begin.
The M982 guided projectile is another dream of the Kyiv regime
Alleged novelties
The American media mention the possibility of a secret supply of long-range and precision-guided weapons for the missile forces and artillery. Such assistance to Ukraine in the form of ATACMS missiles or M982 projectiles is associated with certain risks and should be considered separately.
It should be recalled that talks about ATACMS missiles began a few months ago - at the stage of discussing the possibility of transferring HIMARS or MLRS MLRS to the Kyiv regime. Later, military vehicles and standard rockets were sent, but operational-tactical ammunition has not yet been transferred. Moreover, just a few days ago, the Pentagon again stated that they did not see the point in sending them.
The situation is similar with the Excalibur shells. Their first mentions refer to news about the future transfer of M777 howitzers. In the future, such shells were repeatedly mentioned in forecasts and estimates; there were unconfirmed reports of their appearance in Ukraine. However, in fact, such products were not transferred - and it is not known whether they plan to transfer them.
It turns out that the Pentagon, both in the recent past and now, is not going to allocate Excalibur shells and ATACMS missiles. Accordingly, secret or open deliveries are not planned. At least for now and for the very near future.
It is not entirely clear why the US would have to keep the transfer of such weapons secret. Each time, sending this or that novelty to Ukraine, Washington says that it will definitely have an impact on the Russian army and help the Ukrainian one. Such attempts to intimidate Russia look dubious, but there is a peculiar logic in them. What is the point of deliveries without prior “intimidation” is a big question.
Potential challenges
It is now known that, under certain conditions and circumstances, the United States and its allies can provide weapons to Ukraine without a prior public announcement. There are two examples of this kind, and at the level of rumors, the possibility of more coming soon is mentioned. Whether the United States really plans to continue this practice is unknown.
However, secrecy of supplies is not of fundamental importance. The samples of equipment and weapons transferred to the Kyiv regime will quickly appear. Our intelligence will detect them, or the enemy will try to use them in the war zone. In any case, such assistance will become known, and then worked out scenarios of forced demilitarization will come into play.
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