Give now, receive later. Poland on the eve of the tank crisis
Polish Tanks T-72M on the way to Ukraine, April 2022. Photo by Telegram / ChDambiev
Since April, Poland has transferred several hundred of its main battle tanks to Ukraine, and more deliveries are expected. At the same time, the Polish army orders foreign armored vehicles of current types. Due to these processes, it is supposed to help the allied state and update its tank fleet. However, in reality the situation is more complicated. So far, Warsaw has only succeeded in reducing the number of its own tanks, and achieving other results takes time and money.
Starting positions
Until recently, Poland had one of the largest tank fleets in Europe, second only to Russia and Ukraine. According to The Military Balance 2022, at the beginning of this year, the Polish army had 797 main tanks. This number included machines of several types of different origins and different ages.
The most numerous were the T-72 MBTs of several modifications. There were 318 such machines in service, which were distinguished by their great age. The last T-72s were manufactured in Poland under license back in the mid-nineties. Also in service were 232 of the newer PT-91 Twardy, the Polish version of the T-72M upgrade.
To date, Poland has purchased 247 German Leopard 2 tanks of several modifications. The most numerous so far are Leopard 2A4 - 126 units. They are followed by 105 newer "2A5". There is also a pre-production batch of upgraded Leopard 2PL. According to this project, in the future they are going to rebuild the equipment of the fourth modification.
In order to help
In April, Warsaw expressed its readiness to transfer to the Kyiv regime a certain amount of MBT from the presence of its army. In early May, it was announced that such assistance had already been sent to the recipient. According to various reports, about 230-250 T-72 tanks of various modifications were allocated to Ukraine. The further fate of the remaining cars was not specified.
Solemn event on the occasion of the modernization of a new batch of T-72M tanks, 2019. Photo by Defence24.pl
In early July, reports appeared in the Polish media about the possible continuation of such assistance. It was alleged that now Poland plans to transfer newer PT-91 tanks to the ally. Moreover, all 232 cash machines of this type can be included in the next assistance package. Until a certain time, this information did not receive confirmation, but it was not refuted either.
On July 24, the Ministries of Defense of Poland and Ukraine almost simultaneously announced the start of deliveries of the PT-91. The first batch has already been sent to the recipient. At the same time, the size of the lot and the volume of the next deliveries have not yet been reported. Whether Warsaw will decide to give up all its Twardy is unknown.
Thus, in just a few months, the Polish tank fleet was reduced by 230-250 units. No more than 565 MBTs remain in stock, and their number may decrease again. At the same time, it is easy to see that the oldest cars were written off and sent abroad in the first place. After serviceable T-72s, newer PT-91s began to be shipped. In turn, modern Leopard 2s remain in service and will not be touched.
American replacement
It should be noted that the MBTs transferred to Ukraine in recent months would have been decommissioned anyway. Poland is planning a major upgrade of its tank fleet, which involves the replacement of obsolete Soviet-style vehicles with modern foreign-designed and manufactured vehicles. Against the backdrop of assistance to the Kyiv regime, relevant contracts are being prepared and signed.
The ceremony of signing the contract for the supply of American M1A2C, April 2022. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Poland
For some time it was discussed and in early April an agreement was signed with the United States. In accordance with it, in 2022-25. the Polish side will receive 250 M1A2C / SEP v.3 Abrams tanks, as well as auxiliary vehicles and related equipment. The total value of the contract is PLN 23,3 billion (more than USD 6 billion).
Deliveries of tanks from the United States will begin at the end of 2024 and will take about two years. With the help of 250 imported vehicles, they plan to rearm four tank battalions, now equipped with Polish T-72M1R and German Leopard 2A5. It is curious that the process of training personnel is already beginning. For training, 28 M1A2 SEP v.3 tanks, temporarily transferred to Poland, will be used. The first three vehicles have recently arrived at one of the Polish bases.
On July 15, it became known that Warsaw was going to purchase an additional batch of Abrams. This time we are talking about 116 MBTs from the presence of the US armed forces. Deliveries of this equipment should begin next year and will ensure the rearmament of two additional battalions. According to unconfirmed information, the United States may sell Poland M1A1 tanks, recently retired from the Marine Corps.
Korean contract
Over the past few years, Poland has been considering the possibility of acquiring K2 Black Panther tanks from the South Korean company Hyundai Rotem. In 2020, the development company even presented a layout of the K2PL MBT, modified in accordance with Polish requirements.
The M1A1 tank of the American ILC is Poland's new desire. Photo by the US Department of Defense
On July 24, a representative of the Polish Ministry of Defense revealed current plans for the Panthers, and on July 27 a corresponding contract was signed. According to him, the Polish army will receive a total of 1000 South Korean vehicles. Purchases will begin with 180 South Korean-assembled K2 tanks. The first can be received already this year, and the last are expected in 2025. With their help, Poland will make up for the losses in the form of tanks transferred to Ukraine. In the second half of the decade, these K2s will have to be upgraded under the K2PL project.
In 2026, the army will have to receive the first of 820 planned K2PLs. This technique is proposed to be built by joint efforts. Part of the components and assemblies will be sent by South Korea, while the production of others will be mastered by Poland. For their production and final assembly of tanks, it is planned to build a new plant.
In the distant future, Poland and South Korea may develop a new MBT, so far referred to as K3PL. It is assumed that this will be a deep modernization of the existing K2, characterized by increased performance. Again, it is proposed to establish joint production.
Disputes with Germany
Back in April-May, when handing over its T-72 tanks to the Kyiv regime, Warsaw turned to Germany and Switzerland with a demand to compensate for such “disarmament”. Poland wanted to get the latest German Leopard 2 modifications.
First of all, Poland showed interest in the latest Leopard 2A7, but Germany refused to supply it due to the small number of such tanks and the impossibility of quickly building additional batches. Discussions then began on the delivery of 42 Leopard 2A4 tanks, which had previously served in Switzerland and are now in storage at German sites. In addition, the Swiss army was offered to give equipment from its units.
One of the first M1A2 SEP v.2 for training Polish tankers, July 2022. Photo by the Polish Ministry of Defense
Switzerland predictably refused to reduce its tank fleet, but allowed Germany to ship its former Leopard-2A4s. However, even in this case there were problems. In mid-July, it turned out that the German side, for one reason or another, could only allocate 20 MBTs. The first of them will be handed over to Poland only next spring. Whether Warsaw will agree to such conditions is unknown.
Challenges and problems
The situation with the tank fleet of the Polish army in just a few months has acquired an extremely interesting look. So, from April to July, at least 230-250 tanks were decommissioned and transferred to Ukraine - about a third of the previously available number. At the same time, the initiated transfer of PT-91 can further increase the absolute and relative indicators of write-offs and assistance.
In accordance with the old plans, instead of given tanks, new ones should appear in the army. However, obtaining them is associated with a number of problems of various kinds. In addition, the solution of these problems does not exclude the emergence of new difficulties of a different nature in the future.
First of all, the problem of timing attracts attention. The old T-72s and PT-91s have already been sent to Ukraine, and a replacement for them is still late. The first deliveries of foreign tanks will begin, at best, only by the end of this year. At the same time, the number of South Korean K2s received will be small, and the bulk of this equipment will arrive even later.
Obsolete American M1A1 will be available only next year, as well as not the newest Leopard 2A4. Modern M1A2C in sufficient quantities will appear only in 2025-26. Of great importance for the army is the upcoming contract for 820 K2PL machines - but they will be assembled only in the second half of the decade. As a result, all the desired 1366 tanks of foreign types could be obtained no earlier than the end of the twenties.
Based on the results of these processes, Poland will be armed with three types of MBTs, created in different countries by different schools of tank building. At the same time, up to six to seven different modifications of such equipment are expected. Obviously, disunification will lead to additional financial and organizational problems.
Model of the South Korean MBT K2PL. In the background - K2 in the original version. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of South Korea
It is reported that a new plant will be built to produce the new K2PLs. Whether it will be possible to prepare this site and put it into operation within the specified time frame is a big question. The current energy crisis and the associated economic difficulties call into question all projects of this magnitude. Even in the best case scenario, the new Polish plant will start operations months or years late.
A characteristic feature of the current situation is the actual rejection of our own tank building as an independent industry. Instead, Polish enterprises will only assemble and service foreign equipment. Perhaps the situation will change during the K3PL project, but it will not contribute to the preservation and development of its engineering school.
However, there will be positive consequences as well. Previously, the basis of the Polish tank fleet were Soviet tanks or their modified versions. The newest of these modifications appeared a quarter of a century ago and has long been obsolete. By abandoning these MBTs, the Polish army gets the opportunity to purchase modern foreign-made tanks, and in larger quantities.
tank crisis
Thus, a real tank crisis begins in the Polish army. She quickly lost at least a third of her available tanks, and is now forced to urgently look for a replacement for them. The most daring plans are being made, but a number of objective factors will hinder their implementation - or even frustrate the implementation of some intentions.
How the situation will develop, and what awaits the Polish army, time will tell. And before that, it will be possible to observe what excessive zeal in solving political problems and demonstrating loyalty to foreign partners leads to. Whether Poland will be able to get out of such a crisis without serious losses is a big question.
Information