Sanctions for Ukraine and our truck production
KAMAZ 65225. Without imported components for the 16-speed ZF gearbox, its production turned out to be impossible. Wikipedia photo
The consequences of the special military operation in terms of industrial production are beginning to show. This material concerns the production of such products necessary for the economy and the army as trucks.
Unhealthy start
I must say that the problems here began long before February 24. Since the end of last summer, there has been a shortage of trucks in the Russian Federation, which in turn led to a serious increase in prices for them.
There is only one example of how the price has changed - the Ural 63704 tractor (pictured) has risen in price by 2021 million rubles over the summer of 1 - from 6,3 to 7,3 million rubles. retail average.
This difference in price, of course, fell on the cost of transport services, and it was disproportionately heavy - the vast majority of trucks in the Russian Federation are not bought, but are leased, and there is an overpayment in leasing, which, of course, also fell on the cost.
The reasons were, firstly, the destruction of supply chains of components due to the COVID-19 pandemic, secondly, dollar inflation, which spurred the prices of everything that contains imported components or imported borrowed money, thirdly, some strange problems with the supply of Chinese trucks to the country, which, exactly at the time of the formation of our deficit, began to arrive in the Russian Federation with delivery dates in months, instead of being in stock, and also became a shortage (a strange coincidence, by the way), and fourthly, spring a price rally for the metal associated either with the same dollar inflation, or with a global cartel of ferroalloy suppliers, or with both taken together - depending on who you ask.
The last straw was the sanctions against Belarus with its MAZ, which also affected the delivery time. All these facts are absolutely unknown to the layman, but in terms of the economy and the average check in Pyaterochka, they hit and hit.
By February 24, 2022, the domestic truck market approached in a very unhealthy state - a deficit in many positions, although not the same as in 2021, a price race and generally very high prices, the growth of which very seriously, at times, overtook ruble inflation by more than half a year in a row.
But in general, it was possible to live - the delivery time for the entire range was reduced, there were signs that the shortage would not go beyond the reasonable and would gradually decrease (and it was reduced by many positions), in addition, all these processes did not affect to any extent such an important aspect as the production of vehicles for the armed forces - the army continued to receive those vehicles that it ordered in the right quantities.
And then Russian troops launched a special operation in Ukraine.
sanctions strike
Almost immediately, without waiting for a political reaction from their national governments, foreign companies began to leave the Russian market.
In the case of the automotive industry, the critical exit from the Daimler Trucks market. This made it impossible to continue the production of a line of KAMAZ vehicles manufactured using components from the German concern. We are mainly talking about models 5490 and 65206 in different versions. It also became impossible to produce “Mercedes-shaped” dump trucks, which, despite their high price, were steadily gaining popularity. The refusal of the Germans to supply components covered all these undertakings, the production of machines turned out to be impossible.
KAMAZ itself makes loud promises about his newest line, and apparently his management believes in them themselves, but this is not a quick business anyway. But that was half the battle.
There is reason to believe that ZF is about to leave Russia. This company is a global supplier of gearboxes, and it cooperated with KAMAZ in this capacity. Gearboxes from Tsanradfabrik are produced in many countries, even, for example, in Iran. But everywhere the company adheres to the rule - no full localization. Typically, gearboxes are localized by 80%, and the rest of the components are imported.
Here this German material indicatesthat, on the one hand, ZF requires the use of its checkpoints only on non-military equipment, and on the other hand, that this checkpoint is used on equipment captured by Ukrainians, and on a large scale.
Neither KAMAZ nor ZF announced the termination of cooperation, but judging by the fact that KAMAZ was included in the latest sanctions list, and German checkpoints on Russian military equipment were in the German press, this issue should be considered resolved. And this is going to be a huge problem.
For light-class vehicles with a chassis load capacity of up to 17 tons, KAMAZ puts not only the nine-speed ZF9S, but also its own 10-speed 154 gearboxes. If KAMAZ had a chance to keep the build quality high, it would be a good "box". For the army and export markets, the “ten-step” of the previous generation “152” is still being produced. It is possible to produce a five-speed "144".
But on heavy vehicles, with a payload of 20 tons or more, only the 16-speed ZF16 is installed. This checkpoint is installed on road dump trucks 6520 with a carrying capacity of 20 tons and on 25-ton 65201, it also helps to move all heavy all-wheel drive KAMAZ trucks, thereby doing the lion's share of transport work in our North.
There is no alternative - its own "big" gearbox "161" has long been discontinued, and there are irreplaceable imported components from the same ZF (like synchronizers). And this meant that domestic trucks with the above load capacity should cease to be produced.
Which, in turn, raises questions from civilian users like “where can I get an all-terrain tractor for a heavy-duty semi-trailer?” - they don’t make new ones, and due to the withdrawal of Western truck manufacturers from the market, they hardly bring them to the country. MAZ and the Chinese will not saturate the market. And without heavy tractors in the north, sooner or later, the oil industry will stop.
But the army will receive the main blow from, apparently, the departure of ZF - chassis 63501 for a mass of military special equipment, was left without a gearbox, without it, the heavy eight-wheeled chassis 6560 was left, on which they put the Pantsir air defense system, and these vehicles will also not be produced yet, and most importantly, the army was left without a 65225 tank carrier, since it is also equipped with a ZF gearbox.
Against this background, the presence in the machines of a mass of imported components is “simpler” and the simultaneous doubling of the cost of both the dollar and the yuan against the ruble already passes under the heading “other problems”, but these other problems cannot be ignored either. The mass of parts of the brake system, all fuel equipment, part of the electrical equipment of KAMAZ trucks are imported. And over the last 4 days of February, their price has increased. The cost of foreign loans also soared, and working with banks outside the Russian Federation became very complicated.
Some jingoistic patriot would have guffawed that, they say, there are no problems, there will be other suppliers or we will do it ourselves. The reality, however, is different - since April, KAMAZ has stopped accepting applications for the production of vehicles of the current model range, these vehicles are being discontinued. Instead of modern light class vehicles with a carrying capacity of up to 17 tons, KAMAZ launches their analogues, which were on the assembly line in the late nineties - the first half of the XNUMXs, in a series. With a corresponding deterioration in performance.
As for heavy vehicles and tractors with Mercedes-Benz units, they are simply taken out of production, without replacement. It’s just that for some time, apparently, the remains of civilian vehicles of the modern model range will still roll off the assembly line in April, but rarities will go from May.
It is possible that equipment for the army will be made for some time on old stocks, but this will not last long either. The same goes for models that had no other engine than Cummins, such as the small 4308.
They won't either. But the country would easily survive this, unlike dump trucks and "Shells".
Time machines
Ahead of us is a certain form of surrealism in reality - as if the VAZ-2107 was put into production again. Old motors without electronics with a capacity of 240 and 260 hp. s., iron cabins without a plastic body kit, the same instrument panels ... Of course, KAMAZ may not produce the same configurations of old models that were 15-20 years ago, and slightly modernized versions of them, such as export models adapted for Russia for African markets. However, the effect will be noticeable. For example, it was - chassis 65115.
It became - chassis 53229.
Photo retrotruck.ru
But, of course, this “change” is worse: it was a dump truck 6520.
After:
What are the consequences for the economy such a primitivization of the model range entails? Well, for example, the fact that in order to transport 45 tons of bulk cargo on a dump truck, it will be necessary to make not two trips to 65201, but three to 65115, which also has a significantly smaller resource. Plus ecology, plus higher fuel consumption in older engines.
This is a very strong blow to our already African labor productivity and the economic efficiency of the transport sector. It has already been said about the consequences for the army - a lot of special vehicles, tractors for transporting armored vehicles and chassis for the "Pantsir" will not be produced. For a complete understanding of the issue, here is a list of models that KAMAZ leaves in production.
53215 "Euro-2" (6x4, load capacity 12 tons),
53229 "Euro-2" (6x4, load capacity 17 tons),
43118 "Euro-2" (6x6, load capacity 12 tons),
43253 "Euro-2" (4x2, load capacity 8 tons),
4326 "Euro-2" (4x4, load capacity 5 tons),
53605 "Euro-2" (4x2, load capacity 13 tons) and vehicles based on them. As well as
truck tractor 65116 "Euro-2" (6x4, saddle load 15 tons),
dump truck 65115 "Euro-2" (6x4, load capacity 15 tons),
onboard 65117 "Euro-2" (6x4, load capacity 14 tons).
Everything. For those who do not understand, search engines can easily find both photos and technical characteristics of any of these cars.
Why did KAMAZ do just that? After all, at first glance, everything is solved simply. No ZF-16 gearbox? We put the Chinese Fast Gear 16JS, the quality is the same, the parameters are the same, it fits the engine normally according to the “bell”, the SAE standard is the same for everyone.
There is no way to install BOSCH fuel equipment? There is AZPI, and it was this equipment that saved KAMAZ at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, when imports turned out to be impossible.
But the auto industry doesn't work that way. The produced machine must have a complete set of documentation, on the basis of which it is produced. If this kit is not available, then it means that the imaginary model-alteration cannot be put into production. A set of documentation must first be developed. This time.
You can switch to the specifications for the old chassis simply by order, and the production, which has all the documentation and stocks of spare parts for "African" and military vehicles, will be able to quickly reorganize. On an imaginary model from another checkpoint - no.
In this regard, the decision of KAMAZ may not be critical for the economy - if there is a quick return to "normality". If the plant decides to take its time and stick with the old lineup while trying to launch its ultra-modern 54901 with the new KAMAZ in-line engine, then this will hurt the economy, and possibly defense capability.
Such a decision is quite possible, since the domestic manufacturer will have almost no competitors on the market, MAZ, if only, but it has its own niche. And there were precedents in the world - for example, in the photo below, a truck manufactured by Iran Khodro Diesel from Iran, squeezed by sanctions, this car is still being produced.
And here it is necessary to voice two possible ways out of the production impasse, each of which is technically feasible, only one is fast, easy and not very useful for the country, which will continue to live like a besieged fortress, and the second is complex and problematic, but much more correct from the point of view of the country's long-term interests.
Before moving on to consider both options, we need to take a look at KAMAZ's competitor, UralAZ, and its engine supplier, Yaroslavl Motor Plant, YaMZ.
Ural
UralAZ has not yet done anything similar to KAMAZ, but no deadlines are given for those positions that could fall under Western sanctions. That is, you can order a tractor with a ZF gearbox (“Urals” of a number of models come with them), but no one names the dates when the car will be shipped. In fact, they can be very long. But for now, modern in-line diesel engines YaMZ - 536 and 653 are being produced. Iveco cabs for the cabover series are manufactured in Miass, Next cabs, common to all cars of the GAZ group (the hood is different), are also still available.
So far, in addition to the ambiguity with machines that have a German gearbox, some unpredictability has appeared about what can be obtained at the factory and what is not. But in general, production is underway, cars are being handed over, if everything goes on as it goes on, then there will simply be unstable deliveries of those models that are equipped with the Yaroslavl checkpoints YaMZ-236 and YaMZ-1105. But the prospects for light class cars with a ZF gearbox and the entire heavy class (there is no replacement for the German gearbox yet) are very vague.
You can, of course, hope that ZF will continue to supply checkpoints to URALAZ - the money doesn’t seem to smell, but there was no talk of Urals in the EU, and military Urals are not used from this checkpoint in Ukraine. They talked only about KAMAZ trucks.
But you should not hope for this, and problems with ordering cars confirm this.
For some time, there may be problems with BOSCH fuel equipment, which YaMZ engines are equipped with today - up to the loss of the ability to use it in principle. In this case, YaMZ will have to look for a way out, and apparently, it will be AZPI.
Another problem will affect the road line of UralAZ - non-wheel drive "Urals" 6x4. It cannot be said that these cars were very popular, but now, in the conditions of the withdrawal of foreign manufacturers from the domestic market, there will be a shortage of cars for some time, which will have to be filled.
However, in addition to fuel equipment, parts of the brake system and the RBL steering mechanism, road Urals have a very large and expensive imported unit - Chinese-made drive axles. The same ones that recently began to be installed on their "Mercedes-like" KAMAZ vehicles.
There are no problems with obtaining these bridges - China will supply as many as needed, but, as in the case of Chinese trucks, the ruble exchange rate becomes a problem - it has fallen since February, and the bridges, accordingly, have seriously risen in price.
The plant is working on expanding its production of bridges, and it was funded by the government, but even before the start of the operation in Ukraine, the first bridges were expected in 2023, now, apparently, they will be later.
It is also impossible not to note that if YaMZ switches to AZPI products, and then KAMAZ also returns to Euro-5, then AZPI may not be able to pull out. It must be borne in mind that its power is not infinite.
MAZ
Finally - Belarusian brothers. In conditions of unclear prospects for KAMAZ and UralAZ, and Westerners who left the market, they become monopolists in several classes, albeit not for long. For example, China has all-wheel drive dump trucks in general, but they don’t have single-wheel tires and 16.00R20 tires. And in the north, this is often what you need.
Previously, they were made by MAZ, KAMAZ and Ural, the last one from this list was the best, MAZ had the worst proposals in terms of the sum of qualities. But now it doesn't matter. As soon as the available warehouse balances and production reserves run out, there will be no alternative to MAZ.
And, by the way, the sanctions that Belarus fell under do not interfere with the production of MAZs of any configuration, they simply complicate the financial part of the issue. But not technological. Motors "Mercedes" except that they will not be now, but this, in fact, is a trifle.
Well, now - the actual solutions.
"Return to normal" or a step forward?
There are two ways to solve the problems that have arisen and to prevent a “rollback to the past”. One of them is faster, easier and cheaper in the short term. The second one is more difficult, more expensive in the short term, will require greater organizational efforts from manufacturers and state intervention in the process. But more correct.
Let's briefly review both options.
"Back to normal". This is simply a matter of switching suppliers in collapsed supply chains.
Roughly speaking, instead of the ZF gearbox, the Chinese Fast Gear gearbox comes, either to KAMAZ or to Ural, then YaMZ updates the design of its engines, changing the fuel equipment to AZPI, some of the KAMAZ engines, however, continue to come out in the variant until AZPI will not be able to fully compensate for the dropped out BOSCH. Then everyone returns to Euro-5.
Instead of currently unavailable Cummins engines, KAMAZ can find a supplier in China, after all, it already has a partnership with the Chinese concern Weichai, the largest manufacturer of diesel engines in the world. Some of the Chinese engines can replace Cummins engines on the smallest KAMAZ trucks.
Only the need to sort things out can get in the way. relations with Americans from Federal Mogul, with which KAMAZ has a joint production of piston group parts for its modern V-shaped eights. On old machines, they have a working volume of 10,85 liters, on the current ones, which will temporarily go “into the shadows” - 11,86 liters and not quite domestic piston. But here the permission to ignore other people's patents can help, and it will have to be used. However, the media has not yet reported any problems with this partner.
UralAZ is still simpler: replacing BOSCH with AZPI in Yaroslavl, instead of the nine-speed ZF gearbox, modification of its 9-speed YaMZ-239 gearbox, instead of the 16-speed ZF - the same Chinese gearbox as the future heavy KAMAZ trucks. Chinese bridges will just buy expensive until they start making their own. And that's it, the issue is closed, it takes several months to develop new modifications and put them into production. By the end of the year, the lineup will return to normal, minus the change of main suppliers.
Everything, the matter is closed, everyone returned to "business as usual." But is it right?
Step forward.
There is an alternative that is more difficult, but more correct. Self-reliance. True, the state cannot be dispensed with here. Let us briefly list what KAMAZ needs:
- restarting their Euro-5 engines (meaning the 740th series), with a working volume of 11,86 liters and modern fuel equipment. What is needed for this? Yes, by and large, nothing, such engines are already mass-produced, just not all components are available. What are the big issues that need to be addressed? Yes, three - the required number of sets of AZPI fuel equipment, somehow settle issues with Federal Mogul (if they exist at all), start buying various small things somewhere else;
– Gearbox to replace ZF-16. The correct option would be to purchase 16JS as a palliative, while simultaneously restarting the production of a 14-speed gearbox in Tutaev, at the Tutaev Motor Plant. Once it was known as the YaMZ-330, and its modification may well replace the ZF16 and the Chinese gearbox too. At the same time, you need to return to the checkpoint "161" and slowly bring it to mass production, and without imported components, since the presence of a 14-speed gearbox will allow you to take your time.
And now the most important thing is that the government, which has limited ability to influence KAMAZ through Rostec, must force PJSC KAMAZ and the GAZ group to cooperate. What for? Well, for example, because if the launch of a 14-speed gearbox in Tutaev or the 161st gearbox in Chelny turns out to be impossible within a reasonable time, then the production of a nine-speed gearbox capable of transmitting the torque of any of the KAMAZ engines is quite established in Yaroslavl, minimal modifications are needed for "merging" the Yaroslavl checkpoints with KAMAZ. Yes, from a technical point of view, the solution is so-so, but it allows you to restart the production of heavy machines very quickly.
And YaMZ also has an alternative to Chinese-American diesel engines - more or less modern in-line six-cylinder engines that completely cover all the needs of KAMAZ that it can only have. Of course, KAMAZ, which has its own Euro-5 engines with a capacity of 260 to 420 hp. from. and bringing to the market an even more powerful in-line “six” for mainline tractors, it is unlikely to purchase the entire line of engines from YaMZ, but it is more than possible to replace Cummins on light two-axle vehicles 4308, 43253, 43255 with the Yaroslavl 536th series, this is a complete analogue and according to power, and in terms of weight and dimensions, and in terms of working volume, but KAMAZ does not have its own such engine.
As it appears, it will be another conversation, but for now it would be nice if the money went not to China, but to Yaroslavl. The KAMAZ 5-speed "144" or some version of the YaMZ-1105 adapted to another car can be used as a gearbox for these cars.
There is also a reverse option - KAMAZ has drive axles for road vehicles, both for two-axle and three-axle (twin bogies). And here it is already logical to persuade UralAZ to use KAMAZ axles in their models, until it is possible to launch a new production of drive axles, which is currently being worked on.
Moreover, if KAMAZ manages to put into production a 14-speed gearbox in Tutaev or a 161st gearbox in Chelny within a reasonable time, then these gearboxes can already get on the Ural, replacing both real ZF and virtual Chinese gearboxes. .
The disadvantage of this whole scheme is that the iron will of the state is needed, which will have to achieve effective cooperation between competitors, since they themselves will not do this.
Pros.
Firstly, the fact that in the conditions of the most severe economic sanctions, the Russian Federation will not fall into additional dependence on a foreign supplier, which also has to be paid in foreign currency.
Secondly, the fact that the country will develop its production of auto units, and from this one step to their export independent of cars - to the same MAZ, which now puts on its cars both German, and Chinese, and ours (YaMZ-239) transmissions, however, are ours only for a few models and not much. Own production will make it possible to turn the tide and increase the export of the same gearboxes, and other units.
And there, you see, you can enter some other markets - there are decades of industrialization of Africa ahead, including the creation of your own car industry there, and it would be quite nice to show up there instead of Eaton and the like.
Let's summarize. In a few months, both KAMAZ and URALAZ may well close their weaknesses with subcontractors and resume the production of normal vehicles again in the case of KAMAZ and the entire Ural model range, including both heavy-duty vehicles and road cars. This also applies to military vehicles. The most important fact here is that it is possible to get out of this crisis with the help of real import substitution, giving impetus to the development of our own industry.
At the same time, KAMAZ has such an option as the production of modern models, but with engines without electronics. It is also possible to develop documentation for the production of such machines very quickly, and they also do not need to develop new units, everything is there. This move may well neutralize any difficulties with the expansion of production at AZPI, which will need to supply the entire country with fuel equipment, and will allow not to reduce the production of trucks while the Altai plant is increasing the production of its products. For engines without electronics, fuel equipment is made by YAZDA, and the problems of AZPI in this regard will be indifferent to KAMAZ.
Yes, and UralAZ has such an option with its V-shaped six. If something happens, it is quite possible to put YaMZ-236NE Euro-2 on the old bonneted Urals with an iron cabin, at least also as a half measure.
And when they start doing everything in the right quantities in Altai, go back to Euro-5.
In general, the fact that the production of trucks in Russia has found itself in the most severe crisis since the fire at the KAMAZ engine plant (not so bad, of course) is a fact. The fact that these problems are not only solvable, but also can make the auto industry less dependent on imports and more developed is also a fact.
And this must be done in the shortest possible time. We need to stop relying on foreign countries, especially where we can do everything ourselves.
Information