Hypersonic weapons of the DPRK: facts and assumptions
Juche country on the way to hypersound
At the beginning of the year, the DPRK conducted two launches, which, as always, attracted a lot of attention from Pyongyang's neighbors, especially since this time it was about tests of hypersonic weapons. North Korea made its first start of the new year on January 5th. Second test held 11th, and in the latter case, the range of the rocket was about 1000 kilometers.
By themselves, these launches did not come as a surprise. On September 28, North Korea for the first time tested a new Hwaseong-8 hypersonic missile with a hypersonic glide unit. The tests were carried out at one of the test sites in the north of the DPRK in the province of Chagando. Experts confirmed the maneuverability and stability of the rocket, and also tested its gliding characteristics. In addition, North Korea was convinced of the stable operation of the engine and fuel system.
For obvious reasons, there is no detailed official data about the new complex. It is known, however, that the rocket was developed at the Academy of Military Sciences of the DPRK. It became part of a five-year plan for the development of strategic weapons systems.
Not only the fact of testing is interesting, but also an open demonstration of the complex at the autumn exhibition "Self-Defense-2021". On it you could see a rocket, a hypersonic unit and the platform on which they are installed.
By the way, other achievements of the DPRK defense industry could be seen at the exhibition. For example, a tank that was previously nicknamed "North Korean T-14". (In any case, visually it really looks like the Russian model).
One system - two missiles
First January test allowed look at the issue of creating hypersonic weapons by the DPRK more broadly. As reported in North Korea, the missile "accurately hit the target at a distance of 700 kilometers". It was reported that for the first time in her stories North Korea used ampoule storage of liquid fuel.
The missile received "lateral maneuvering technology" and a controlled detachable hypersonic warhead. The launch was carried out from a mobile unit on a multi-axle wheeled chassis.
Much more official statements about the rocket say its appearance. Apparently, the complex received a hypersonic warhead, which is different from the Hwaseong-8 warhead. Compared to the earlier model (as well as the rocket used in the latest tests), the warhead has less sharp contours and a different look of aerodynamic surfaces.
If we talk about accelerating elements, they are very similar or identical. This applies to all three samples involved in the tests.
As in the case of the Hwaseong-8, the rocket launched on January 5 could be seen at the Self-Defense 2021 exhibition. In any case, it is very similar to the tested sample.
The visual similarity of the new hypersonic missiles with the Hwaseong-12 and Hwaseong-14 intercontinental ballistic missiles is noteworthy (this, of course, does not apply to combat units). The range of the Hwaseong-12, according to some reports, can reach 6000 kilometers: if these data are correct, the missile could reach northern Australia and parts of Alaska.
Thus, purely theoretically, both North Korean hypersonic systems can have a range that allows them to inflict significant damage both on US allies and directly on American territories.
Another question is the capabilities of the hypersonic unit itself. Apparently, Hwaseong-8 uses the so-called glider - a glider capable of controlled flight and maneuvering in the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds. In theory, it allows you to level air and missile defense due to speed and maneuverability. Roughly speaking, "unpredictability" for the enemy.
Help "neighbor" and internal problems
To create such a weapon is not a trivial task for any country, including Russia, the United States and China. This, in particular, requires structural materials capable of withstanding enormous temperatures. The question of guidance is acute.
The same Americans are facing huge problems in the development of hypersonic systems. Suffice it to recall the partially successful and unsuccessful tests of the Boeing X-51 Waverider. In addition, all three flight tests of the latest AGM-183 ARRW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon) air-launched system ended in actual failure. More recently, it was going to be adopted "soon." Now the future of the entire project raises a natural question.
Option two. The first is the “borrowing” of technologies. This is often talked about in the media, in particular, the newspaper "Vzglyad" in its material "North Korean hypersound poses a big mystery". It is no secret that North Korea is a poor and backward country, even against the backdrop of not the most developed countries in the world. Theoretically, China could help her. However, one should not forget how difficult relations between Beijing and Pyongyang are and how fragile “friendship” turns out to be when it comes to solving practical problems.
On the other hand, there is Russia, which has “stable normal” relations with the DPRK. In addition, Moscow has a similar development, namely the Avangard strategic missile system, equipped with a hypersonic guided warhead. It is launched using an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) UR-100N UTTKh. According to open sources, Avangard develops speed up to M = 28.
But it is too early to draw far-reaching conclusions. Moreover, the explanation of the successes (or "successes") of the DPRK may lie in a slightly different area. It's no secret that hypersonic weapons are one of the most "fashionable" trends. All players want to make themselves known in this field, regardless of their real scientific and technical capabilities.
It should also not be forgotten that North Korea is now facing serious difficulties in supplying the population with food, exacerbated by quarantine measures. At the end of 2021, Kim Jong-un said that the country was threatened by "great battle for life and death”, promising that improving the living conditions of the country's citizens will become one of the priority tasks in the coming year.
In such a situation, the authorities need new achievements and victories more than ever, even if they are only on paper.
As for third-party analysts, their opinions on this matter vary. Thus, in South Korea there is no doubt that the DPRK really tested a new weapon. At the same time, speaking about the tests on January 5, Seoul called a different, more “modest” range.
Be that as it may, it is premature to talk about the appearance of real hypersonic weapons in the DPRK. Obviously, the country will continue to work in this direction, but it is impossible to say with certainty how the "hypersonic campaign" of the young leader of the Juche country will end.
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