Tactical aviation of the Ukrainian Air Force: dubious plans and real degradation
The current state of the Ukrainian Air Force cannot even be called acceptable. A limited number of older types of aircraft and helicopters remain in service, mostly still Soviet-built. In recent years, Kiev has been actively working on the issues of updating the Air Force and restructuring the tactical aviation – and even drew up a program of action for 2021-35. However, there is every reason to believe that even in the best case, it will be implemented only partially.
Actual problems
At the moment, "Povіtryanі sili" cannot boast of large size or high combat capability. According to The Military Balance 2021, the tactical combat aviation of the Air Force is distributed among four fighter and two bomber-assault brigades. The total number of combat aircraft was estimated at about 125 units.
The MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters remain the most massive in the Air Force - about 35 units. each type. There were also more than 30 Su-25 attack aircraft and a dozen Su-24 front-line bombers. For reconnaissance tasks, approx. 10 Su-24MR aircraft. The newer World Air Forces 2022 guide from Flight Global gives different numbers, but in general, the two publications do not contradict each other.
A characteristic problem of the Air Force of Ukraine is the unacceptable obsolescence of available equipment. All combat aircraft and almost all other aviation equipment went to the Ukrainian army during the collapse of the USSR. Accordingly, the newest fighters and bombers celebrated their thirtieth anniversary last year. This negatively affects the performance and capabilities. In addition, the real combat readiness of the machines is questionable.
Repeated attempts have been made to repair and modernize aircraft, but there are specific problems in this area. Thus, a major overhaul cannot fundamentally solve the problem of the age of equipment. In addition, such events are extremely difficult or even impossible without the participation of Russia. The involvement of third countries allows solving some issues, but it is also associated with difficulties and problems.
Thus, the Air Force is in poor condition and cannot fully solve the assigned tasks. In addition, there are all the prerequisites for further deterioration of the situation - economic, organizational, corruption, technical, etc. In the absence of any measures, the combat-ready fleet of the Air Force, already not the largest, will continue to decline with no hope of recovery.
big program
In the spring of 2020, the Air Force development plan was formed and published under the name "Vision of the Air Force 2035" ("Vision of the Air Force 2035"). This document proposes a number of measures that will make it possible in the distant future to re-equip the Air Force and return its capabilities to an acceptable level.
In this regard, the main attention is paid to the renewal of combat aviation. Based on the results of the implementation of the plan, the Air Force is going to have four tactical aviation brigades equipped with a single type of multi-role fighter. The required amount of equipment is estimated at 72 to 108 aircraft. The total cost of the program will be 200 billion hryvnia, and most of this money is expected to be spent on tactical aircraft.
The modernization of the Air Force is divided into three stages - preparatory, executive and fixing. Each of them, according to the plan, will solve its own problems and create the basis for the next stage. Despite the different complexity of the tasks set, it is expected to spend five years on each stage.
The first preparatory stage of the program is designed for 2021-25. In the context of tactical aviation, its goal is the selection and development of a new fighter. The tender for the purchase of foreign equipment was supposed to be held in 2021-22, and a contract should appear in 2022. From 2023 to 2025, the Air Force was going to receive from 6 to 12 aircraft for study, development and trial operation.
In 2025, the "executive" stage of the program should start. Its goal is to regularly purchase and supply new equipment while decommissioning obsolete equipment. Up to 10-12 aircraft are expected to be purchased and put into service annually. By the end of the stage, two tactical brigades should completely switch to the new equipment.
The "fixing" third stage, scheduled for 2031-35, will continue the activities of the second and ensure the completion of all transformations and retooling. According to its results, the Air Force must acquire the final form with the required number of formations and equipment. In addition, by this time they will completely get rid of obsolete Soviet-made equipment.
It is curious that the previously published plan does not describe measures to upgrade the infrastructure in accordance with the requirements of new aviation technology. Also, the issue of updating the arsenals of weapons with the transition to new standards has not been disclosed. Obviously, a full-fledged modernization of the Air Force will not do without such measures, and their implementation is associated with additional costs and requires some time.
Missing Successes
The first phase of the new plan was supposed to start last year. This stage will last for several more years, but the main features of the work and key trends are already visible and understandable. Moreover, it becomes possible to make predictions for the future, up to the end of the third stage.
According to the plan "Visions of the Air Forces 2035", in 2021-22. must go through a tender, during which a new fighter-bomber will be selected for further rearmament. The first half of this period has already passed, but nothing is known about the competition. Various contenders for the purchase were named, but the matter has not yet progressed further than talks. Accordingly, one should not expect that by the end of 2022 the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to carry out all the necessary measures and select a new aircraft.
Probably, the tender is being postponed for the most banal reasons: due to the lack of necessary funding, as well as in connection with political and corruption processes. The emergence of such factors is typical and expected for modern Ukraine. In addition, it can be expected that they will continue in the future. This becomes a threat to both the first and subsequent stages of the program.
The main problems of the modernization plan are related to the lack of necessary funding. The military budget of Ukraine recently reached the level of 120 billion hryvnias, while 200 billion are needed to upgrade the Air Force. Whether it will be possible to release 15 of the current annual budget for only one program in 1,7 years is a big question. It is very likely that the actual spending on aviation will be lower than planned.
An additional "threat" for rearmament is the lack of clear plans for infrastructure, command and control equipment, weapons, etc. Their renewal is rather complicated and expensive. The implementation of such measures may be included in the overall budget of the program, which will affect other purchases.
In matters of financing, Ukraine can rely on foreign assistance. In addition, it is possible to transfer or purchase used equipment from the presence of the air forces of third countries. International contracts of recent years show the fundamental possibility of such purchases, despite the very limited benefit from them.
A future without a future
Thus, Ukraine sees and understands all the problems of its “Reinforcement Forces”, and also realizes the need to update and improve them. To solve this problem, a bold long-term plan was drawn up and adopted, covering all issues of updating the Air Force, and tactical aviation occupies the main place in it.
It is easy to see that the plan of "Viziya Resurrection Forces 2035" is too bold for the Ukrainian economy and the armed forces in their current state. It turns out to be too expensive and complicated, and the distribution of purchases over the next 15 years as a whole does not solve these problems. It is possible that Ukraine will turn to foreign countries for help, but this does not guarantee the timely and full-scale implementation of all plans.
When and how all existing problems will be solved, and whether it will be possible to do this, is unknown. Meanwhile, tactical aviation in the form of morally and physically obsolete aircraft will continue to degrade. If the necessary measures are not taken in the coming years and real steps are taken, Ukraine runs the risk of being left even without a small and limitedly combat-ready Air Force. However, the military-political situation transparently hints that such a scenario is negative only from the Ukrainian point of view.
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