The state and development of the naval component of China's strategic nuclear forces
One of the Type 094 submarines. Photo US Naval Institute
China is actively developing its strategic nuclear forces, incl. their marine component. Foreign military departments are closely monitoring these processes, tracking changes and trying to make predictions. The current state of affairs in this area was recently disclosed by the Pentagon in the next annual report "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China". Based on data from open sources and from the intelligence community, a big picture is drawn and predictions for the future are made.
Ship composition
The authors of the report note that the PLA Navy pays great attention to the modernization of the submarine forces. For this, shipbuilding is developing, and new technologies are being introduced. According to the results of these processes, there is an increase in all the main indicators, but so far it is quite modest.
At the moment, the submarine forces have six nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles, six nuclear submarines with cruise missiles and almost fifty diesel-electric ships. It is noted that in recent decades, China has been developing nuclear submarine shipbuilding. So, over the past 15 years, 12 nuclear submarines of several projects have been built.
Half of the built nuclear submarines are strategic missile carriers "Type 094" or Jin-class in the NATO classification. Each such boat is capable of carrying 12 Juilan-2 (JL-2) ballistic missiles. It is noted that these are the first Chinese SSBNs capable of fully participating in the processes of strategic nuclear deterrence.
According to intelligence, in the recent past, the construction of the first submarines of the new project "096" or Tang-class could begin. It is believed that a new Tsuilan-3 SLBM is being developed for them, but technical details are unknown. The planned sizes of the series have not been specified either.
JL-2 rockets on parade in 2019 Photo by FAS
The Pentagon believes that by the end of the decade, the PLA will maintain its submarine forces at 65-70 pennants. The number of new submarines under construction will generally correspond to the number of those written off due to obsolescence. The main place in such plans will be occupied by multipurpose and torpedo submarines of various projects, but SSBNs have not been forgotten either.
The authors of the report believe that by the beginning of the thirties, China will build no more than two new Type 096 nuclear submarines. As a result, the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces will include eight submarines of two projects. Due to the high assigned resource of boats "094", such a mixed grouping can be maintained for the next several decades.
Missile weapons
The Type 094 submarines carry modern JL-2 ICBMs (NATO code CSS-N-14). According to various sources, this is a three-stage solid-propellant SLBM, developed on the basis of the DF-31 land-based missile. The product is 13 m long and weighs 42 tons, it carries a monoblock or multiple warhead with a warhead with a capacity of up to 1 Mt. The maximum firing range is estimated at 7200 km.
According to foreign data, patrolling and combat duty of Type 094 SSBNs with Juilan-2 missiles on board began in 2015. Apparently, it used serial missiles, the production of which could begin at that time. The number of SLBMs manufactured and transferred the fleet, as well as deployed on submarines, is unknown. At the same time, the Pentagon report recalls that in 2019, at the parade, 12 JL-2 products were shown at once - a full ammunition load of one SSBN.
In the future, it is expected to adopt the new Tsuilan-3 SLBM. According to foreign sources, the design of such a rocket has already been completed, and flight tests have been carried out since November 2018. According to various estimates, the JL-3 will go into production and take up combat duty in the middle of this decade.
The launch of the Juilan-2 rocket. Photo Defpost.com
It is assumed that the new missile of the Juilan family will again be three-stage and will receive solid-propellant engines. At the same time, a significant increase in the range is expected in comparison with the JL-2. According to various sources, this parameter can exceed 9 thousand km and even reach the level of 11-12 thousand km. Combat equipment, presumably, will include several individually guided warheads.
Operational capabilities
At the moment, there are six 094 submarines in service, each of which is capable of carrying 12 Juilan-3 missiles. Accordingly, the PLA Navy can simultaneously deploy up to 72 ballistic missiles and no less nuclear warheads. By the end of the decade, two new Type 096 SSBNs will increase the theoretical size of the naval component by 24 missiles or more, depending on the size of its ammunition load.
The Pentagon estimates that China's strategic nuclear forces currently have less than 200 nuclear warheads. At the same time, production weapons continues, and arsenals will continually grow. During this decade, at least a twofold increase is expected. The possibility of accelerating production is also assumed, as a result of which by 2030 the PLA will have about a thousand nuclear weapons.
It is not known how many nuclear weapons the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces possesses. Its share in total Chinese arsenals is also unclear. At the same time, JL-2 missiles are considered as one of the main deterrents, which should determine the quantitative and qualitative indicators of production and deployment.
Presumably the launch of a JL-3 rocket. Photo Military-today.com
It is assumed that the main targets for Chinese SLBMs are in the continental United States. To attack most of these objects, SSBN "094" with "Juilan-2" missiles will have to go to the central or eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. There, they risk colliding with the anti-submarine defense of a potential enemy, which can reduce the likelihood of a successful strike and its effectiveness.
The promising Type 096 submarines will have to carry JL-3 missiles with enhanced performance. If the information about the range of 12 thousand km corresponds to reality, then the new submarines will be able to hit targets in most of the United States without moving away from their native shores. At the same time, they will be able to remain under the protection of their fleet and aviation.
Nevertheless, there are still several years before such opportunities are obtained. In the coming years, the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces will include only Type 094 SSBNs, which will have to patrol at a great distance from the coast, incl. in potentially hazardous areas. In addition, the appearance of newer "096" will not immediately change this situation. Until the end of the decade, the Navy will receive no more than two such ships, and the JL-2 will remain the main strategic weapon.
Pending growth
Thus, by now, China has been able to create a full-fledged naval component of the strategic nuclear forces with the necessary combat capabilities. While the group of SSBNs with SLBMs has limited size and potential, but in the future it will continue to grow, receive new weapons and expand its operational and combat capabilities.
According to the Pentagon, Chinese submarine missile carriers are already patrolling and have become a full-fledged element of the strategic nuclear deterrence system. In the context of the developing confrontation with the United States and the general deterioration of the situation in the Pacific region, such a system acquires special significance, and the growth of the indicators of the marine component becomes a vital process.
Subscribe to our Telegram channel, daily additional materials that do not get on the site: https://t.me/topwar_ru
Information