Who will be the master of the Pacific Ocean?
The United States is seriously concerned about the increase in the number and quality of ships of the Chinese fleet... Another brick was thrown into the information lake by specialists from FAS, a non-profit independent organization that worked out data from the US Naval Intelligence Agency.
FAS provides assistance in planning the US military budget and the information obtained by the organization's specialists can have a significant impact on the formation of costs.
The PRC fleet is today considered in the United States to be the main factor capable of neutralizing the United States' provision of control over the Western Pacific.
Indeed, today China is demonstrating the ability not only to build ships, but also to operate them competently. In addition, what is known about the programs of the PLA fleet for equipping it with ships, aircraft and various types of weapons, training various specialists - all this greatly strains military analysts in the United States.
Yes, they do not yet extol their rival, seriously believing that China still has a lot of problems and weaknesses in the organization of the fleet, but American experts admit that China is taking huge steps to eliminate them.
Today, the PRC's navy outnumbered the US fleet. At the beginning of this year, the PLA navy consisted of 333 warships against 296 in the United States, but the Americans still have a high-quality strike force.
And by 2025, the PRC will have 400 warships. 2030 - 425. And we are not talking about diving bots, but about warships.
However, the patrol boats, corvettes and frigates that guard China's borders at sea are more than enough to make it difficult for the same submarines to operate near the Chinese coast.
Yes, the striking power of the US Navy in the form of missile cruisers and destroyers supported by aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines is still power and strength. Even with the state of many ships, the US Navy is still a force.
Another question is that even today the Americans are urgently transferring everything that is possible to the Pacific Ocean, fortunately, there seems to be no one to fight in the Atlantic.
The main task of the United States is to balance the forces in a region as tense today as the Pacific Ocean. This is a very serious task, and the States still have the opportunity to solve it. Even at the expense of the transfer of ships and crews, which will cause congestion at the bases of the fleet in the Pacific Ocean.
This will still have to be done, since China's fleet is growing at the expense of new ships. Today, the United States recognizes that much of what China produces today is quite comparable to American models.
So the staff at the Pacific bases will have to be very stressed, but there is no other way out. Plus, of course, the attraction of allies. Fortunately, China has natural ill-wishers in the person of the same Japan and India.
So the desire of US military specialists to develop new concepts for countering the PRC navy is understandable. It is impossible to fully rely on the forces of allies in the region, even if they exist and share the American belief that China's growing navy is a dire threat.
But in this case, it is necessary to imagine the real capabilities and capabilities of the fleets of the two countries and add potential allies. As mentioned above, simply comparing the quantitative composition of Chinese and American ships is not entirely correct. The same applies to the total tonnage of the fleets.
The main thing is the number of strike ships capable of solving operational tasks in the region and the ability of the bases to support, repair and supply these ships.
The huge numbers regarding the US Navy here are not an axiom indicating that America has such a clear advantage, no. The number of ships that the naval command is able to deploy, if necessary, is significantly less than that indicated in the statistics.
After all, if you take the same cruisers "Ticonderoga", then of the 22 remaining in service, 10 must be disposed of within the next 6 years. This speaks, among other things, of how American cruisers are in general combat units. Considering that the youngest ships of this class entered service in 1993, and the oldest - exactly 10 years earlier, it is clear what conclusions are drawn regarding American missile cruisers.
Yes, they are. On the paper. Whether these are real combat ships today that meet all the requirements of our time is generally a separate conversation.
And if we compare "Tikonderoga" and the same destroyer of Project 055, it is very difficult to say who will win. I would really bet on the Chinese. It is both younger and thicker in terms of displacement (a destroyer is larger than a cruiser - it's funny) and more tools to harm the enemy.
However, comparing Ticonderoga, Arleigh Burke and Project 055 is a completely different topic. And it is worth adding Japanese destroyers to it. At least "Atago", although this is the same "Arlie Burke", but with a Japanese filling.
In any case, there are three countries that want to control, if not the entire Pacific region, then a significant part of it. And two out of three countries are in this part. Japan and China.
You can also add South Korea with its also very dynamically developing fleet, which over the past 10 years has received 7 missile frigates, 3 destroyers and 6 submarines. But South Korea at least does not have such pronounced ambitions, unlike Japan and China.
The Japanese fleet does not want to yield to the Chinese one in terms of dynamics and will soon acquire aircraft carriers as well. Converted from the newest (2015 and 2017) helicopter carriers. Plus 2 destroyers and 11 submarines in the last 10 years.
USA. 1 aircraft carrier, 12 destroyers (two of them Zamvolta, which did not work out very well), 14 nuclear submarines.
Of course, there is no comparison with what China is doing. 20 destroyers of various series, 1 aircraft carrier, 3 submarines, 26 frigates and 63 corvettes in 10 years.
Well, for comparison, it is worth mentioning here what the Pacific Fleet of Russia has enriched in this regard. 3 corvettes, 2 nuclear submarines of the Borey project, 2 diesel-electric submarines of the Varshavyanka class. Everything. More boats are being built, but in general everything looks very unfortunate.
The Pacific Fleet is not capable of playing on the same board with modern players. Alas. We have too few ships for that, and they are too old. Unfortunately, Russia can no longer be considered a full-fledged political player on the Pacific board.
However, we have no interests outside our borders in the Pacific Ocean. There is a controversial issue about the Kuriles, as they say, it would be kept in an upright position, if it was put.
It is worth asking the question: who needs it, this redistribution of the Pacific Ocean? After all, this is not the Suez Canal, not the Persian Gulf, there are no special minerals and transport routes ... But is it worth it?
In any case, if someone wants to fight for spheres of influence and control, it is not us. In principle, Russia is unable to maintain the growth of its naval forces that all participants in this review demonstrate. And you could fold your hands and calmly watch how events will unfold, but ...
But we have Japan at our side, intensively training its new army and navy. Equipped, we note, with new, brand new ships. And the imperial ambitions of Japan, multiplied by revanchism, will sooner or later be directed towards the Kuril Islands. Moreover, it is clear why. Because China, against which Japan is simply obliged to be friends with the United States, may not just give back, but do it very painfully.
Again, we are not talking about the use of nuclear weapons, with this question everything is clear and understandable: the world will be partially brought to the brink of complete destruction, or rather, everything depends on those who will brandish nuclear clubs. Another question is whether a few islands are worth starting a nuclear Apocalypse?
Not worth it. That is why the Americans are transferring ships to the Pacific Ocean, although one could easily get by with missile submarines. But submarine destroyers of civilization are a bad means of curbing Chinese ambitions, and Washington is well aware of this. And in Beijing too, that's why they continue to build up their fleet.
Today, the United States is seriously afraid that tomorrow in Beijing they may decide to try to change the established order in the Pacific Ocean, more precisely, in its most "fun", western part. This is a completely possible option, the control of shipping in this region can greatly complicate the existence of some states, which are very much tied to maritime transport supplies.
We can only watch what is happening, because we are unlikely to be interesting to any of the participants in the unfolding actions for the role of an ally. Alas, an old cruiser, an old destroyer and four old anti-submarine ships are ridiculous. Especially when compared with the fleets of real maritime powers.
But this is precisely the place of contemporary Russia in the Pacific Ocean. There, in shallow water, near their own shores. In the hope that the "Borei" will frighten the Japanese and 40 Japanese destroyers will not come to the Kuril Islands "for their own".
However, half of the Japanese fleet is enough for our Pacific Fleet to turn into scrap metal.
Necessary afterword.
Someone may think that this is another opus on the theme "oh, everything is lost." Perhaps such an assessment would even be fair, if not for a few points. Of course, I would very much like our country to be perceived as great, respected or even feared. Well, as it was before.
Sorry, but they respect and fear the strong. The rich and the strong, who have something to hit, if anything. Of course, all these cartoons about "Poseidon", "Petrel" and so on are very strong, and it may even frighten someone. Children who happened to be on TV screens. But aircraft carriers, cruisers and destroyers do it much better. Yes, intercontinental missiles that can destroy the entire world are not bad. But if you look objectively, then today the Russian fleet is the unsold and unassembled remnants of the once mighty fleet of a country that has been gone for 30 years. There is no Soviet Union, and the ships are still in service.
And who will respect that? Who will be frightened by the large floating target of Project 1144? How about the only destroyer in the Pacific Fleet? To be glad that you didn't cut it? And how can this museum ship surprise the Japanese? The good condition of the museum "Mosquitoes" that make up its striking force? Oh yes, now another big target of Project 1143 will be scaring the whole of Japan. And there will be a little fear for South Korea.
In general, to be respected, you need a fleet. To be afraid - all the more you need a fleet with a capital letter. Unfortunately, we do not have it, and it is unlikely to exist anymore. So, no matter how regrettable it is, Russia's destiny is the role of a coastal shtetl country that cares about the inviolability of its borders and does not get involved in big politics.
Simply because there is nothing to climb into it.
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