Imported air defense systems for the development of air defense of Ukraine: urgent problems and useless plans
SAM Patriot PAC3 + in position
The current state of Ukraine's air defense is far from ideal. Samples of Soviet production still remain in service, some of which have long become obsolete morally and physically, and the number of combat-ready complexes is constantly decreasing. In recent years, various solutions to these problems have been proposed, but none of them has come to fruition. For example, this year the possibility of obtaining foreign air defense systems was actively discussed - and so far there is no further talk.
Actual problems
According to various sources, the armed forces of Ukraine have a fairly large, but outdated air defense system. The bulk of the anti-aircraft systems is concentrated in the object defense, which is under the authority of the air force. The ground forces also have their own air defense, but it is less numerous and faces different restrictions.
According to The Military Balance 2021, the air defense units of the air force have approx. 250 launchers of the S-300P / PS / PT system. Defense at medium ranges is carried out using 72 Buk-M1 complexes. Also, an indefinite number of long-obsolete S-125 air defense systems remains in service.
Military air defense has a number of S-300V long-range systems. In the near zone, the defense is carried out with the help of the "Strela-10", "Osa-AKM" and "Tunguska" complexes - a total of approx. 150 units Also, the presence of only 6 combat vehicles "Tor-M" is noted. Still in service are towed and self-propelled systems of 23 and 57 mm caliber.
A large number of equipment and weapons is leveled by a number of negative factors. This is moral and physical obsolescence, lack of proper maintenance, lack of trained personnel, etc. As a result, the overall potential of the Ukrainian air defense system is limited and does not meet modern requirements and anticipated tasks.
Help Wanted
Since 2014, the new Kiev regime has regularly spoken about the need for military-technical assistance from friendly foreign states. It is argued that Ukraine heroically protects all of Europe from "Russian aggression", and therefore everyone should help her with money, political measures and the supply of equipment. Among other things, air defense systems were repeatedly mentioned in this context.
Once again, foreign air defense systems were remembered in mid-April this year. Then one of the high-ranking Ukrainian officials criticized the United States for plans to transfer Patriot complexes to the Polish armed forces. According to this official, such systems should be deployed in Ukraine - to ensure the security of the entire West.
Similar statements were made in mid-August. During a meeting with foreign partners, another representative of the Kiev authorities once again recalled the Russian threat and the leading role of Ukraine in its "containment". Then, in this context, a wish was voiced about the deployment of American air defense systems on Ukrainian territory.
Launch of the Patriot rocket
Statements by Ukrainian officials about the need to supply the Patriot air defense system attracted attention, but did not lead to anything. Foreign organizations and officials, on whom the sales of military equipment depend, have not responded to them in any way. Negotiations or other events have not yet begun and are probably not even planned. Accordingly, in the foreseeable future, deliveries of complexes should not be expected - if they ever begin.
Profitable proposition
A few days ago, new reports appeared in the American media about possible military-technical assistance in the field of air defense. The US Congress is currently working on a military budget for the next FY2022, and a curious amendment was recently proposed by the House of Representatives.
Under this amendment, the Pentagon must determine which of the systems and weapons received in recent years for testing will not be deployed in the near future. Then he will have to work out the possibility of transferring or selling "unnecessary" products to Ukraine. The prospects for such a proposal are not yet clear, but it can be approved and accepted for implementation.
The amendment to the bill does not define specific models and systems - this will have to be done by the relevant bodies of the Pentagon. At the same time, the American media quoted an unnamed employee of the Congress, who claims that the Iron Dome anti-missile defense systems ("Kipat Barzel" / "Iron Dome") may be transferred to the Ukrainian army.
Israeli Iron Domes during Operation Wall Sentinel, May 2021
In 2020-21 The US Army received two Iron Dome battery packs from Israel for testing and evaluation. If positive results were obtained, purchases should have continued. The complexes were planned to be deployed at overseas bases at risk of being fired upon by unguided missiles.
For a number of reasons, the tests ended with unsatisfactory results, and new purchases are no longer planned. The further fate of the two received batteries has not yet been determined. They can be put into operation at one base or another, or, as congressmen suggest, sold to a third country.
Doubtful prospects
The current state of the Ukrainian air defense system is such that any supply of any modern air defense system will be useful. At the same time, a full-fledged restoration of the entire defense system and its bringing to NATO standards is more than a difficult task. Its solution takes a lot of time and is associated with prohibitive costs for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian leadership expresses a desire to receive the Patriot air defense system, but the likelihood of this is extremely small. Such deliveries, first of all, are hindered by the high cost of the complex. Thus, the current Polish-American contract provides for the supply of two air defense missile systems with a full range of the latest modifications worth $ 4,75 billion.
For a full upgrade and modernization of the air defense of Ukraine, two batteries of "Patriots" will not be enough. At the same time, it will not be possible to include the purchase of even one battery in the Ukrainian military budget, which does not exceed $ 4-4,3 billion. In turn, the United States is unlikely to transfer such expensive equipment for free or on preferential terms.
Similar problems should be expected in the case of the Iron Dome. The US Congress proposes to transfer or sell these complexes to Ukraine. Selling looks like a more successful step, even on preferential terms and at a discount. The purchase of two batteries for testing cost the Pentagon about $ 200 million, and they should be returned - at the expense of a third country.
Against the background of the Patriot air defense system, the Iron Dome missile defense system looks like a more profitable purchase. In addition, the cost of a pair of batteries does not exceed Ukraine's annual military budget. However, two stationary batteries may not be enough to organize defense even in the most dangerous areas, and the purchase of additional systems is associated with an increase in costs, incl. to an unacceptable level.
It is noteworthy that hypothetical purchases of the Patriot or the Iron Dome may not only be prohibitively expensive, but also impractical. The fact is that the tactical and technical characteristics of such air defense systems do not fully correspond to the tasks at hand.
Ukraine plans to use the Patriot complex against Russian aerospace forces, but the effectiveness of such a use is questionable. Air defense systems are becoming a priority target for a first strike using various systems, from aviation weapons of destruction to operational-tactical missiles. The absence of an echeloned defense and a small number of complexes in positions will simplify the combat work of a potential enemy. However, Russia is not going to attack, and therefore Ukraine will be able to talk about the Patriots as an effective deterrent.
The Iron Dome system is both redundant and insufficient. With its help, the Ukrainian army could defend itself against the rocket artillery of the unrecognized republics, which have a limited number and firepower. However, after the signing of agreements on the withdrawal of the republic's troops, such weapons are not used - and the Iron Dome runs the risk of standing idle, raising doubts about the need to purchase them.
In the event of a full-scale conflict with a developed enemy, such complexes, like other air defense systems, will be knocked out by the first strikes. Moreover, they do not have to be amazed. The defense of the "Dome" can be broken through with the help of massive rocket and artillery strikes, and a small number of complexes will only simplify this task.
Useless plans
Thus, another attempt to modernize the armed forces of Ukraine and increase their defensive capability risks failing already at the stage of preliminary planning. Kiev again dreams of obtaining modern advanced air defense and missile defense systems, but the likelihood of this is small. Self-purchase of equipment in sufficient quantities is simply impossible, and one cannot count on foreign aid in sufficient volumes. The lack of technology, in turn, will limit the possible growth of defenses.
As a result, the likelihood of any rearmament of the air defense system is sharply reduced. However, small chances remain - but the scope of re-equipment will be limited. And even the most modern technology with high characteristics will not be able to realize its potential and positively affect the state of air defense and defense capability in general.
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