Is the military department in a hurry to adopt a new ICBM?

7 October 2010 from the atomic submarine "Dmitry Donskoy" from a submerged position was made 13 th in a row on a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile "Bulava". It started from the White Sea and successfully hit conditional targets at the Kura training ground in Kamchatka. Two more launches of these ICBMs are planned for the current year, the date of which is still unknown.

Bulava launches in the 2010 year, frozen on the 10 months after the failure of 9 in December 2009, were regularly postponed. Initially, their renewal was planned for the spring of 2010, but then they were postponed due to the need to carefully monitor the assembly of the missiles to identify possible production and engineering errors. At the end of July, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that the ICBM starts in the middle of August 2010, but then the tests were again postponed to a later date. This time the cause was forest fires and, as a result, high smoke pollution of the air, which could interfere with the visual tracking of the rocket flight.

The nuclear submarine Dmitry Donskoy of the 941 Shark project entered the White Sea to continue testing the Bulava on the night of October 6. Initially, the launch was planned to be held until the 10 number, but later the date was specified and assigned to October 7. This is an accident or an exact calculation, but the next test of the rocket, which turned out to be successful, the military department suited the birthday of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

DID THAT WHICH COULD

The next launch of the Bulava was preceded by long 10 months of preparation, during which the manufacturing quality of the promising ICBMs was thoroughly checked. According to Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, it was necessary in order to collect three identical missiles, which are scheduled to start in 2010 year. One of them has already completed the task of October 7, the second is expected to fly in late October, while nothing is known about the time of testing the third rocket.

So, just for today, 13 launches Bulava, only six of which were considered successful. At the same time, the 13 test of the ICBMs was the first in the 2010 year, and it was preceded by a long series of failures. The last time the rocket safely reached the Kamchatka test site 28 November 2008 of the year. This launch (the ninth) of the military was undoubtedly called successful, since the Mace not only reached Kura, but also hit all the targets intended for it.

During the seven unsuccessful launches, each time a failure occurred in a new rocket node. This “floating” problem gave rise to many assumptions. In particular, the opinion was expressed that the Bulava’s difficulties were related to mistakes made in the design: the work on the rocket in 1997 was transferred not to the Miassky Design Bureau named after Makeyev, specializing in the development of sea-based missile weapons, but to the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering (MIT), previously created the land-based ICBM "Topol-M". It was also said that the Bulava’s failures were due to the fact that MIT was in a hurry to complete the missile bench tests (only one of its bench launches took place), transferring them to a submarine.

Another version, voiced by a number of Russian officials, stated that the manufacture of a rocket regularly allowed marriage, which explains the "floating" problem. A more detailed answer to the question of who jinxed the Bulava was given in the spring of 2010 by the then chief rocket designer, Yuri Solomonov, the former head of the Moscow Thermal Engineering Institute. According to him, the unsuccessful launches of the rocket are connected with the lack of materials necessary for its creation in the country, as well as with manufacturing defects and insufficient quality control at all stages of manufacturing. In turn, this could have been caused by the devastating 90s, during which many specialists either changed their occupation or retired.

Nor should we forget about the corruption component. At the end of September 2010, the court in Bryansk sentenced to two years of imprisonment conditionally two former employees of a certain factory, because of which the equipment intended for the Armed Forces was staffed by civilian, not military electronics. Neither the names of the convicts, nor the name of the enterprise were announced, but Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported that the plant also produces electronics for the Bulava missiles. He collects both civilian and military chips. All products are virtually indistinguishable. However, the latter have higher reliability and, therefore, cost considerably more.

At the end of July 2010, the production defect version was confirmed by a state commission that studied the unsuccessful launch of the Bulava, which took place on December 9 2009. Then the rocket painted the sky over the Norwegian Tromso with a firework unprecedented until then - during the flight the sliding nozzle of the Bulava between the first and second stages failed to get into a regular position. The cause was not an engineering error, but a manufacturing defect - during the previous flights of the rocket the nozzle was advanced as intended by the designers. In order to combat anti-bribery, the Ministry of Defense not only conducted a thorough inspection of enterprises involved in the manufacture of ICBMs, but also threatened to revise the whole scheme of its creation.

Thus, in mid-September 2010, Anatoly Serdyukov said that if the unsuccessful Bulava launches continued, the production and quality control system for the assembly of missiles would be completely changed. What specific changes are foreseen, the Minister of Defense did not tell. It is possible that they meant personnel changes within the team involved in the project, as well as a complete change of all enterprises engaged in the production of test rockets. Currently, Bulava is produced at the Votkinsk plant, in the same place as Topol. A few days after the statement by the head of the military department, it became known that Yuri Solomonov had lost his post as chief designer of the rocket and headed the division of the Moscow Thermal Engineering Institute, which develops ground-based missiles. Alexander Sukhodolsky was appointed chief designer of the Bulava.

FUTURE TESTS

Apparently, the threat of Anatoly Serdyukov and all previous efforts to control the quality of the assembly had the desired effect. In any case, according to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, the launch, carried out on October 7 2010, was completely in normal mode and all warheads arrived at their destination at the Kura test site. If we proceed from the assumption that, under the control of the military department, three identical Bulavs were created, then the following two launches should also be crowned with success. In this case, we can confidently assume that the experts discovered the “curse” of the failed missile. Whether it will be possible to get rid of him is another question.

In the meantime, according to the plan, the launch of the Bulava, the second in 2010, will also take place in the White Sea. The rocket will launch from the Dmitry Donskoy nuclear submarine, and if the flight is successful, the third launch will take place from the strategic nuclear submarine Yury Dolgoruky of the Borey 955 project. She is a regular carrier of advanced weapons and has already passed all factory tests. In fact, this third, undoubtedly, the most important launch of the Bulava will be not only the testing of ICBMs, but also the test for combat use of the submarine itself. Indeed, in this case, both the effectiveness and accuracy of the interaction between the missile and the weapon systems of the submarine will be checked.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense was not slow to make quite optimistic assumptions about the near future of the “Mace”. So, shortly after the 13th launch of the rocket, the Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov reported on the success to President Dmitry Medvedev, after which it was announced that two more tests of ICBMs were necessary and could be put into service. And at the General Staff of the Naval fleet they even specified: this will happen in mid-2011, if all launches of the Bulava in 2010 will end successfully. Around the same time, Yuri Dolgoruky will be included in the Russian Navy.

It should be noted that these conclusions seem premature. Apparently, in order to be able to talk about the successful completion of the program, it is necessary to carry out much more successful launches of the Bulava, so that their number significantly exceeds the number of unsuccessful ones. Otherwise, according to the logic of the military, the rocket should have been adopted five years ago - three successful tests in a row took place on 23 September 2004 of the year, 27 of September and 21 of December 2005. However, shortly thereafter, a black line arrived - three failures in a row in 2006. Given the novelty of most of the components of the rocket and its very design, it’s better to refrain from the hasty decision of the Bulava’s fate.

NO EXIT

It should be noted that there is little reliable information about the technical characteristics of the rocket. It is a three-stage, with all three steps solid. "Mace" is designed in such a way that its launch is made in an inclined plane, this allows the ICBM to start under water from the board of a moving submarine. The rocket carries from six to ten nuclear units with a power of 150 kilotons and a total mass of up to 1,15 tons. Curiously, all warheads will be able to maneuver in yaw and pitch. Together with the "scaling" third stage, this feature will increase the chances of the Bulava to overcome the missile defense system of a potential enemy. The flight range of the ICBM is about eight thousand kilometers.

In the future, the Bulava should become the main armament of the strategic submarines of the 955 / 955 / 955U Borey project, each of which will carry from 16 to 20 missiles. In particular, "Yuri Dolgoruky" is equipped with 16 rocket mines. Nuclear submarines of the Borey project have a displacement of 24 thousands of tons and are capable of sinking to a depth of 450 meters. Submarines can reach speeds up to 29 nodes. In addition to the missile silos for the P-30, submarines will receive six torpedo tubes. Currently, the submarines “Vladimir Monomakh”, “Alexander Nevsky” and “St. Nicholas” are in the shipbuilding enterprise of Sevmash in varying degrees of readiness.

Both nuclear submarines and new missiles will become the most important element of Russia's nuclear triad. It is believed that the adoption of the Bulava and submarines of the Borey project into service will correct the disturbed balance of forces in the Russian nuclear triad, and also bring the naval component of the strategic forces to a new level. This will be provided by a fundamentally new Bulava design and its capabilities, as well as the capabilities of fourth-generation nuclear submarines.

At the end of 2009, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov announced that over 40% of Russia's defense budget was spent annually on the Navy. It's simple. The autonomy of sailing atomic submarines is limited only by the endurance of the crew and the supply of provisions. In addition, the submarine’s important quality is stealth. Thus, strategic submarines have the ability to quietly deliver nuclear weapon almost anywhere in the oceans. In this case, the submarine is extremely difficult to detect until the very moment of launching the rocket.

At the same time, the failures of Bulava, if they continue, will again endanger the Borey project. At the end of 2009, a number of Russian media reported that the construction program for the nuclear submarines of this project could be frozen, or even completely closed. However, rumors spread soon dispelled the Ministry of Defense of Russia, which, however, did not confirm and did not refute the information about a possible suspension of the implementation of "Boreas". But in anticipation, when the "Bulava" will be adopted, the submarines themselves do not become younger. In addition, there is no longer any possibility of abandoning Borea - too many funds were spent on the creation of submarines, one of which completed all the tests and was preparing to launch the Bulava.

Last year, some experts expressed the opinion that Russia should abandon plans for the Bulava, and rebuild built 955 submarines for existing missiles, for example, RSM-54 Sineva. In particular, it was stated that this missile was already in service, tested by numerous test launches, capable of delivering warheads to a distance of 8,3 thousands of kilometers and carry up to eight warheads. True, it did not take into account that the replacement of rocket mines on submarines is a laborious and very expensive business. In addition, Sineva is significantly larger than the Bulava in size and is vulnerable to a promising multi-layer anti-missile defense system. Such a system, for example, is being formed today by the USA with the assistance of NATO.

It should also not be forgotten that successful tests of the Bulava are a kind of prestige issue for the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering, previously engaged in the creation of only ground-based missiles. Initially, the Bulava project provided for a high degree of unification with the ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles Topol-M and RS-24 Yars. Currently, the degree of unification of missiles is significantly reduced, but they still have some common elements. For example, for these missiles produced at the same factory in Votkinsk, the platforms for the breeding of warheads are almost identical. Thus, in fact, subsequent failures of the Bulava could damage the reputation of Topol and Yars. For this reason, the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering, no less than the Ministry of Defense, should be interested in carefully controlling the quality of the rockets assembled in Votkinsk.

On the one hand, it is possible to understand the failures of the Bulava - after all, when creating a rocket, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology decided to abandon the classical schemes for building liquid fuel missiles for submarines. The “Bulava” is a solid-fuel rocket, more compact than the same “Blue”. In addition, according to the institute, the rocket has a lower flight profile and is capable of unexpectedly and dramatically changing the flight path to overcome the enemy anti-missile shield. According to Solomonov, it is also resistant to nuclear explosion factors and the effects of laser weapons. By the way, the laser component of missile defense has been created in the United States for several years and has even been tested. However, the effectiveness of laser weapons against strategic missiles is in question.

On the other hand, before when testing new missiles for submarines, such a large number of failures were never noted. For example, a total of X-NUMX test launches of the P-42PM (later became the basis of the “Blue”) were made, of which 29 was successful, and when testing, say, the X-NNXX in 31, all 27 submarine launches were successful . Against this background, the performance of the Bulava - 60 / 24 - are not outstanding. However, the chances of all its failures related to a manufacturing marriage are quite high, but it’s still premature to fully confirm this assumption - it is necessary to wait for the test flight of the remaining two rockets identical to the one that flew on Vladimir Putin’s birthday.