Redistribution of the global arms market and major contracts
It is no secret that the volume of the international market for armaments and military equipment is growing every year. As noted by the staff of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), part of this growth is a consequence of the fall of the dollar, the currency in which all assessments are made. Nevertheless, the economic situation allows, and military-political events in the world force some states to pay more attention to defense problems. And in the light of the latest coups in the Middle East region, the market weapons may change a little.
First of all, it is worth noting the new government in Libya. Previously, this country purchased the bulk of weapons and military equipment from the USSR and Russia. Other suppliers are France, Italy, the former Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. During last year's civil war, mostly after the NATO forces entered the fighting, the Libyan army lost a lot aviation and armored vehicles. The new government of Libya, despite a number of dubious features, is gradually starting to make attempts to restore, or even increase the combat potential of its army. In the near future we should expect the announcement of tenders for the supply of a particular weapon. At the same time, one cannot fail to note one characteristic feature of the new Libya: its ambiguous economic condition. Therefore, the very fact of future purchases can now be called into question. However, if there are any, then there are certain grounds for assumptions on the topic of supplier countries. Most likely, given the foreign “aid” during the war, the new Libyan authorities will prefer Western weapons. Unless, of course, the budget of the new country is enough for such purchases.
In other Arab countries - Tunisia, Egypt, etc. - last year's "Arab Spring" was held with much less losses in military equipment. Therefore, the renewed power of the country is not so badly in need of procurement of new weapons. At the same time, it should not be forgotten that the renewal of the materiel of the armed forces must go on constantly and systematically. In other words, in the near future, these countries (of course, with the correct leadership of the new governments) will begin competitions and order weapons. And again, you can draw approximate conclusions about the favorites of these tenders. Take for example the Egyptian air force: on the air bases of this country there are vehicles of Soviet, American and French production. Moreover, the aircraft and helicopters manufactured in the USA and France are the most new. It is unlikely that the new government will “inflate” the range of equipment in use. Moreover, the existing "Mirage" and F-16 various modifications with a number of reservations suit the Egyptians.
In general, a number of facts regarding the change of government in Arab countries suggest that some foreign countries will increase their share of the global market for weapons and military equipment. First of all, it is the United States, Great Britain and France. Obviously, the cost of the same air operation in Libya will pay off with interest. Nevertheless, any changes in the volume of military exports of European countries will not have a serious impact on the overall rating of exporters. The largest European manufacturers and suppliers of weapons and military equipment - Germany, France and the United Kingdom. According to the results of 2011, they were from third to fifth place in the overall ranking. At the same time, these European countries have relatively small market shares: Germany took about 9% of the total global supply, France - 8%, and the United Kingdom was limited to four percent. As you can see, Germany and France this year may be swapped in the general list. However, they will not rise above the third place. First of all, for the reason that the first two places in arms sales are firmly occupied by the United States and Russia with 30% and 24%, respectively. Thus, in order to get closer to second place, Germany must select market shares for both France and Great Britain combined. To do this in a year, as well as in the short term, is simply impossible.
As for the buyer countries, India has been the leader in their ranking for several years. As of last year 2011, she bought weapons and military equipment for the equivalent of one tenth of the entire world market. In the current and next years, New Delhi is going to continue this "tradition." On the fiscal year 2012-13, the country's budget provides for the allocation of 1,95 trillions of rupees for weapons purchases. This amount is approximately equal to 40 billions of dollars. Naturally, such plans of India attract the attention of exporting countries. It is also worth noting that, in addition to the amount allocated for 2012-13 years, New Delhi is constantly increasing funding for its army. So, compared with the previous financial period, 17% more was allocated for the purchase of weapons and equipment. Moreover, from 2007 to 2011 a year, India bought weapons for more than 12,6 a billion dollars, and now, for just one year, almost double the amount. One can only guess what the volume of contracts will be India in 2015 year.
I am glad that from the above-mentioned 12,6 billion 10,6 billion went to Russia. Most likely, the current trend will continue in the future. At the same time, foreign states are already showing their interest in Indian contracts. A striking example of this is the recent tender for the supply of a new fighter, which ended with the victory of the French Dassault Rafale aircraft. This fighter bypassed the European Eurofighter Typhoon, the American F-16 and F / A-18E / F, the Swedish Gripen and the Russian MiG-35. At one time, a scandal of local significance almost broke out with this competition. The exit of the domestic fighter from the competition even before the final stage of the latter caused a lot of questions and not less criticism. A little later, the Russian helicopter Mi-28H lost the tender to the American AH-64 Apache. However, in addition to these two models of aviation technology, Russia and India have a number of other “points of contact” in the military-technical field. For example, now the Indian military are choosing the most suitable light and heavy helicopters. From Russia in these competitions participate Ka-226T and Mi-26, respectively. If it is possible to argue about the Kamov machine, then the Mi heavy helicopter is a clear favorite in its competition - in terms of payload, the Mi-26 has no analogues in the world and the very fact of its participation in the competition transparently hints at the results.
It should be noted that the approximate list of suppliers of weapons for India has long been formed. New countries appear in it quite rarely. At the same time they have some chance to get through and get orders. First of all, this concerns countries that have developments on missile defense topics. The fact is that a potential enemy of India - Pakistan - in recent years has been actively developing ballistic missiles capable of delivering warheads to any point in their region. Due to such unfriendly activity, Indians have to show interest in anti-missile systems. Currently, India is armed with PAD and AAD antimissile systems. Due to the fact that this is the first Indian development in the field of missile defense, the complexes have a lack of reliability of destruction. It is possible that in order to strengthen its strategic defense, New Delhi will soon turn to foreign countries for help. In addition, there is a small chance of simply ordering missile defense systems abroad.
Opportunities to expand the range of products supplied - this is certainly good. However, we should not allow the loss of existing and potential contracts. First of all, because of the unstable situation with other states that buy weapons from Russia. Over the past couple of years, our country has already lost enough money because of problems with supplies to Libya or Iran. Moreover, in both cases, the causes of the disruption of deliveries are directly or indirectly related to Russia's direct competitors in the global arms market. Obviously, it is these competitors that can occupy the vacant "places" of suppliers. Therefore, India, steadily ordering new equipment and increasing procurement funding, is such a good partner that should not be lost. In principle, this thesis applies to all countries with which military technical cooperation is conducted. Just because of the volume of orders of small countries, they fade into the background. Moreover, not all of the countries that most buy weapons cooperate with Russia. So, over the past five years, the five leaders by orders are as follows: India, South Korea, Pakistan, China, Singapore. Of these five countries, only India and China have established ties with Russia. Accordingly, our country needs to preserve its relationship with them.
One way or another, the world arms market lives and develops. Constantly concluded contracts and negotiations. From time to time, military and political events take place that influence the share of deliveries of individual countries and the creation of new military-technical ties. However, as practice shows, most often such things do not have a significant impact on the market. Arms shipments to purchaser countries are already generally divided between producer countries and it is rather difficult to break the existing ties. However, the achievement of a threshold of 60 billions of dollars for the year planned by the Americans is quite realistic. The increase in the Russian market share looks the same real. True, both tasks may not be as simple as they seem.
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