Anti-missile scam in the "shop on the couch"
The Pentagon is exploring the possibility of creating space-based interceptor missiles and new tracking spacecraft to counter the growing threats from the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China in the field of "high-speed rocket attacks," said Michael Griffin, deputy defense minister for research and development.
Writes about this informed American journalist Bill Hertz from the conservative edition of The Washington Free Beacon. What is it and what threatens - we are with you now and we'll figure it out.
The Pentagon and the American administration do not teach bad previous experience. It can be seen that the saying "a smart one learns from the mistakes of others, a fool on his own" is not about them, they don’t learn from their own. And the “success” of leaving the ABM Treaty did not teach, which did not allow to create at least some really workable missile defense system in the territory of the country. After all, neither GBI nor SM-3 are capable of intercepting SLBMs and ICBMs under any conditions, even manipulated interceptions of similar missiles were not carried out, and they are unlikely to intercept all other missiles in the face of countermeasures against modern missile defense systems. On the other hand, the "shackles" fell off the hands of our missile defense system developers, which led to the final stage of work on creating a strategic missile defense system A-235 with stationary and mobile components, as well as a universal long-range intercept C-500 interceptor system capable of effectively striking and BB ICBMs / SLBMs, and low-orbit satellites, and a variety of aerodynamic targets, including, in some cases, hypersonic. I didn’t teach the result of the started "hypersonic race", when instead of "fast global strike" in "probable partner number one" as a result, while there are a lot of closed programs for creating demonstrators, a lot of open OCDs and practically no real success, while Russians don’t the first hypersonic system, and a few more on the way. And even China, and that one, from where it is unknown, took technologies (strikingly similar in places to the decisions of the past decades recognized by us as unpromising) and is catching up with America. But after all, Russia warned about the serious consequences of torpedoing the ABM Treaty, and about the “quick global strike”. And with the INF Treaty, it will turn out exactly the same. But I also wanted to worsen my position in space, and based on the same desire to improve them, gaining an advantage over the enemy - that is, Russia. But back to Michael Griffin and what he once again uttered.
In fact, the personality of Griffin is quite curious, for those who are interested in all sorts of slippery types. Michael Griffin in narrow circles is a legendary personality in his own way. At one time, this figure was engaged in the development of the budget for the program "SOI", which in itself was one big cut without the slightest possibility of realization. Then the Americans portrayed the case that the PIO, they say, was a chimera invented for the Politburo, and they believed in it and were frightened. And so they were “scared” that the measures taken on the 4 generation generation missile systems of the Strategic Missile Forces (Voevoda, Molodets, Topol, for example) effectively leveled this unrealized threat, and about the 5 generation DBK ("Topol-M", "Yars") and there is nothing to say.
Then Griffin spoke openly against the participation of Russians in the ISS project, but Clinton did not understand this demarche, and Michael flew out of work. Then he joined the non-profit In-Q-Tel counter in the roof of the CIA, and so lived up to the presidency of Bush Jr., who appointed a useful frame to lead NASA, where he turned around.
We will not remember the minor pranks and sins of youth like stories with Griffin's dissertation. But let us recall how he suggested creating a bundle of RKM SSME and the ship CEV instead of Shuttles, where the rocket was Frankenstein from the Shuttle program accelerators and other things that were in stock, the flight pattern was two-launch, etc. And where is this wonderful system, I ask?
In general, if it were not for Ilona Mask, Griffin could claim the dubious title of "space rocket Mavrodi number one." However, such Masks and the chimera of the “effective” supposedly private astronautics were embodied precisely because of people like him.
At one time, when he was director of NASA, Griffin was actively pushing the idea of returning space launches to private hands, and in fact the transition to a budget drank by lured private offices with supposedly ingenious and very private (no technology from outside) developments, all of which in aggressive PR.
But here we were not going to engage in applied mascology, and then crowds of believers would come to the holy "Tesla" and the venerable "Falcon", and so on. And the current performance of Griffin, who is now engaged in issues of missile defense and FFP, shows that there is also an old budget sawing party who has gasoline in a chainsaw.
Griffin first complained to aggressive Russia and China, saying that the Chinese allegedly "conducted dozens of tests of hypersonic weapons"(which is a lie, there are far fewer, especially successful ones), and the Russians" are rapidly moving in this area. "Well, yes, they just put into service the 15А35-71 drone with the Avangard 15Ü71, the hypersonic aeroballist rocket" Dagger " “having a few more systems on the way, in particular, the Sarmat DBK with the same Avangard as an option. And since, they say, such things, then you need, you must have means to detect such missiles, Griffin said.
The fact is that geostationary and high-elliptical spacecraft (SC) missile attack warning systems (MNS, although in the Russian literature this is the name of our system, and the American - SPRNW, but this is from a series of its scouts and alien spies) such as DSP or SBIRS are incapable target designate missile defense systems, they only detect threats. The low-orbit satellites of the SBIRS-Low system (SBIRS high-elliptical then called SBIRS-High), which during the “successful” development at the beginning of the millennium, transformed into STSS, and then when the demonstrators showed its uselessness, into the PTSS, which , allegedly due to budget constraints, quietly slaughtered in a dark alley in 2013. And now, Griffin suggests once again, as stated in a near-decency, but funny joke, “dig up a stewardess” named PTSS, referring to technical advances about Still, that it will work. This time for sure, you just believe and give me the money.
In reality, PTSS in the same way could not solve the tasks set before it, therefore it was stabbed to death. As Los Angels Times wrote in due time:
PTSS satellites in their equatorial orbits would not have seen the BB flying over the Arctic, that is, flying from Russia to the US, or from the DPRK (although it is easier for northerners to shoot across the Pacific Ocean). A system equipped with a maximum 12 KA could not provide continuous tracking even in the northern hemisphere, as promised. For this, at least twice as many satellites are needed, and their Americans could not afford it, and they cannot even now. PTSS was expected to be unable to solve the main task - to distinguish the BB from false targets. This is even without taking into account the latest ABM PRO, a complex of means for overcoming ABM, which was created in Russia approximately in those years, then tested and put into service and continues to be improved. He makes such a task unsolvable in the medium term by any means.
And, as usual, the estimated cost provided by the ABM Agency - 10 billion dollars over 20 years, turned out to be “slightly” underestimated, approximately 2.5 times, and then, they say, these are only initial estimates of the commission of Congress. But, given the unsolvability of the main task, the system was simply not needed, all the rest and the existing ground and space means can somehow be done. The Americans are firing anti-missiles on tests on the control system from the ground-based radar - and even sometimes they hit, although the achievement is not great. You'll think that a missile defense system without this component is useless, even if it were workable - it was not built for combat work. "Monya, these trousers should not be worn - they should be earned," as the old Odessa tailor taught the young.
Here are a couple of opinions on the PTSS coffin:
That is, it was necessary to estimate on the napkin and immediately forget, like a bad dream, and burn a napkin in an ashtray. But Michael Griffin, apparently, decided that 5-6 years is enough time for the failure to be forgotten and it was possible to take a shovel and dig up a corpse. In addition, the country has a new president, who forgets what he wrote on Twitter yesterday, and who sincerely believes that with him "America's nuclear power has grown to unprecedented heights." By the way, I really want to read the new report by the US Department of Energy somewhere at the end of the year or the beginning of the next - we will find out how many warheads there was a negative growth this year.
Mr. Griffin is an experienced traveling salesman and knows how to push old goods to rustic consumers, he would have to work in a “store on the couch”. Using the usual presentation style for such establishments - only today you will receive not only PTSS in the new wrapper, the same “workable” as it used to be (it is unlikely that the fundamental shortcomings of the system can be defeated by the new element base and other achievements of this decade), but you will get it cheaper !!! You get it for just 20 billion dollars, Griffin promises. It is now, when the prices for the decade in the military-industrial complex of America have increased by several times, when a transport plane and even a heavy helicopter cost as much as a frigate had recently cost! And it promises the system is cheaper than it would have cost earlier, and, most likely, at times.
Moreover, he promises not only her for the money. Griffin advocates the deployment of 1000 (!) Missile defense interceptors on satellites, they say, without them, hypersonic CDs and Avant-garde systems will not be able to withstand them. And all for the ridiculous 20 of billions. Call now!
Griffin's calculations are just phenomenal. In his opinion, an estimate of the deployment of space interceptors can be calculated at the sum of 20 000 dollars per kilogram - this is the cost of sending materials to a low near-earth orbit. Where did the cost of the missiles and satellite satellites and satellites of the new PTSS iteration go, he forgot to say. Why go into such trifles?
But seriously, 1000 rockets will require dozens, if not hundreds, of satellites. And it’s impossible to hit them flying along flat trajectories and unpredictably maneuvering Avangards and similar systems (we recently announced the development of the next AGGB Anchar-RV). The Americans had already developed the concept of a spacecraft with interceptor missiles on board, and within the framework of the PIO, and a little later, when there was the same, just as “real” program Brilliant Pebbles, nothing happened. Why should it happen now? Yes, even for the funny 20 of billions of portraits of long-rotten presidents.
In fact, everything is much easier. The main thing is to open a topic for financing. Then you can milk the client, promising that you have to pay extra, and more, and more - and then there will be a result. Until he gets bored and the list of unsuccessful programs is not replenished with the next lines. In this case, you can be sure that the list of prisoners in US federal prisons will not exactly fill up the names of neither Griffin, nor those associated with him from Congress or the US Department of Defense.
Writes about this informed American journalist Bill Hertz from the conservative edition of The Washington Free Beacon. What is it and what threatens - we are with you now and we'll figure it out.The Pentagon and the American administration do not teach bad previous experience. It can be seen that the saying "a smart one learns from the mistakes of others, a fool on his own" is not about them, they don’t learn from their own. And the “success” of leaving the ABM Treaty did not teach, which did not allow to create at least some really workable missile defense system in the territory of the country. After all, neither GBI nor SM-3 are capable of intercepting SLBMs and ICBMs under any conditions, even manipulated interceptions of similar missiles were not carried out, and they are unlikely to intercept all other missiles in the face of countermeasures against modern missile defense systems. On the other hand, the "shackles" fell off the hands of our missile defense system developers, which led to the final stage of work on creating a strategic missile defense system A-235 with stationary and mobile components, as well as a universal long-range intercept C-500 interceptor system capable of effectively striking and BB ICBMs / SLBMs, and low-orbit satellites, and a variety of aerodynamic targets, including, in some cases, hypersonic. I didn’t teach the result of the started "hypersonic race", when instead of "fast global strike" in "probable partner number one" as a result, while there are a lot of closed programs for creating demonstrators, a lot of open OCDs and practically no real success, while Russians don’t the first hypersonic system, and a few more on the way. And even China, and that one, from where it is unknown, took technologies (strikingly similar in places to the decisions of the past decades recognized by us as unpromising) and is catching up with America. But after all, Russia warned about the serious consequences of torpedoing the ABM Treaty, and about the “quick global strike”. And with the INF Treaty, it will turn out exactly the same. But I also wanted to worsen my position in space, and based on the same desire to improve them, gaining an advantage over the enemy - that is, Russia. But back to Michael Griffin and what he once again uttered.
In fact, the personality of Griffin is quite curious, for those who are interested in all sorts of slippery types. Michael Griffin in narrow circles is a legendary personality in his own way. At one time, this figure was engaged in the development of the budget for the program "SOI", which in itself was one big cut without the slightest possibility of realization. Then the Americans portrayed the case that the PIO, they say, was a chimera invented for the Politburo, and they believed in it and were frightened. And so they were “scared” that the measures taken on the 4 generation generation missile systems of the Strategic Missile Forces (Voevoda, Molodets, Topol, for example) effectively leveled this unrealized threat, and about the 5 generation DBK ("Topol-M", "Yars") and there is nothing to say.
Then Griffin spoke openly against the participation of Russians in the ISS project, but Clinton did not understand this demarche, and Michael flew out of work. Then he joined the non-profit In-Q-Tel counter in the roof of the CIA, and so lived up to the presidency of Bush Jr., who appointed a useful frame to lead NASA, where he turned around.
We will not remember the minor pranks and sins of youth like stories with Griffin's dissertation. But let us recall how he suggested creating a bundle of RKM SSME and the ship CEV instead of Shuttles, where the rocket was Frankenstein from the Shuttle program accelerators and other things that were in stock, the flight pattern was two-launch, etc. And where is this wonderful system, I ask?
In general, if it were not for Ilona Mask, Griffin could claim the dubious title of "space rocket Mavrodi number one." However, such Masks and the chimera of the “effective” supposedly private astronautics were embodied precisely because of people like him.
At one time, when he was director of NASA, Griffin was actively pushing the idea of returning space launches to private hands, and in fact the transition to a budget drank by lured private offices with supposedly ingenious and very private (no technology from outside) developments, all of which in aggressive PR.
But here we were not going to engage in applied mascology, and then crowds of believers would come to the holy "Tesla" and the venerable "Falcon", and so on. And the current performance of Griffin, who is now engaged in issues of missile defense and FFP, shows that there is also an old budget sawing party who has gasoline in a chainsaw.
Griffin first complained to aggressive Russia and China, saying that the Chinese allegedly "conducted dozens of tests of hypersonic weapons"(which is a lie, there are far fewer, especially successful ones), and the Russians" are rapidly moving in this area. "Well, yes, they just put into service the 15А35-71 drone with the Avangard 15Ü71, the hypersonic aeroballist rocket" Dagger " “having a few more systems on the way, in particular, the Sarmat DBK with the same Avangard as an option. And since, they say, such things, then you need, you must have means to detect such missiles, Griffin said.
The fact is that geostationary and high-elliptical spacecraft (SC) missile attack warning systems (MNS, although in the Russian literature this is the name of our system, and the American - SPRNW, but this is from a series of its scouts and alien spies) such as DSP or SBIRS are incapable target designate missile defense systems, they only detect threats. The low-orbit satellites of the SBIRS-Low system (SBIRS high-elliptical then called SBIRS-High), which during the “successful” development at the beginning of the millennium, transformed into STSS, and then when the demonstrators showed its uselessness, into the PTSS, which , allegedly due to budget constraints, quietly slaughtered in a dark alley in 2013. And now, Griffin suggests once again, as stated in a near-decency, but funny joke, “dig up a stewardess” named PTSS, referring to technical advances about Still, that it will work. This time for sure, you just believe and give me the money.
In reality, PTSS in the same way could not solve the tasks set before it, therefore it was stabbed to death. As Los Angels Times wrote in due time:
Proponents of this system, which was scheduled to include 9 to 12 satellites rotating in high orbit above the equator, promised that it would read missile launches and track the warheads with high accuracy and identify real and false targets. And all this should have been much cheaper than alternative approaches.
"Based on these promises, the Obama administration and Congress have invested more than 2009 million dollars in the development and technical design of PTSS, launched in 230. After four years, the government quietly covered the program without waiting for at least one satellite to launch," the missile defense agency said. The United States announced that the PTSS fell victim to budgetary constraints. In fact, its entire concept was hopelessly defective, and the promises of its advocates were wrong. It was the last in a series of costly failures of a rocket agency. "
"Based on these promises, the Obama administration and Congress have invested more than 2009 million dollars in the development and technical design of PTSS, launched in 230. After four years, the government quietly covered the program without waiting for at least one satellite to launch," the missile defense agency said. The United States announced that the PTSS fell victim to budgetary constraints. In fact, its entire concept was hopelessly defective, and the promises of its advocates were wrong. It was the last in a series of costly failures of a rocket agency. "
PTSS satellites in their equatorial orbits would not have seen the BB flying over the Arctic, that is, flying from Russia to the US, or from the DPRK (although it is easier for northerners to shoot across the Pacific Ocean). A system equipped with a maximum 12 KA could not provide continuous tracking even in the northern hemisphere, as promised. For this, at least twice as many satellites are needed, and their Americans could not afford it, and they cannot even now. PTSS was expected to be unable to solve the main task - to distinguish the BB from false targets. This is even without taking into account the latest ABM PRO, a complex of means for overcoming ABM, which was created in Russia approximately in those years, then tested and put into service and continues to be improved. He makes such a task unsolvable in the medium term by any means.
And, as usual, the estimated cost provided by the ABM Agency - 10 billion dollars over 20 years, turned out to be “slightly” underestimated, approximately 2.5 times, and then, they say, these are only initial estimates of the commission of Congress. But, given the unsolvability of the main task, the system was simply not needed, all the rest and the existing ground and space means can somehow be done. The Americans are firing anti-missiles on tests on the control system from the ground-based radar - and even sometimes they hit, although the achievement is not great. You'll think that a missile defense system without this component is useless, even if it were workable - it was not built for combat work. "Monya, these trousers should not be worn - they should be earned," as the old Odessa tailor taught the young.
Here are a couple of opinions on the PTSS coffin:
"This is an example of failed defense procurement: huge sums can be thrown to the wind, paying for something that should not have gone further than research," said physicist David K. Barton, who was a member of the commission of the National Academy of Sciences, which audited American anti-missile programs.
Philip E. Coyle III, former Pentagon director of field trials, expressed the opinion that the program’s fiasco could have been avoided if the concept had been thoroughly worked out from the very beginning. “It could have been done even on a napkin,” said Coyle. “It was just necessary to get the pencil to the paper.”
Philip E. Coyle III, former Pentagon director of field trials, expressed the opinion that the program’s fiasco could have been avoided if the concept had been thoroughly worked out from the very beginning. “It could have been done even on a napkin,” said Coyle. “It was just necessary to get the pencil to the paper.”
That is, it was necessary to estimate on the napkin and immediately forget, like a bad dream, and burn a napkin in an ashtray. But Michael Griffin, apparently, decided that 5-6 years is enough time for the failure to be forgotten and it was possible to take a shovel and dig up a corpse. In addition, the country has a new president, who forgets what he wrote on Twitter yesterday, and who sincerely believes that with him "America's nuclear power has grown to unprecedented heights." By the way, I really want to read the new report by the US Department of Energy somewhere at the end of the year or the beginning of the next - we will find out how many warheads there was a negative growth this year.
Mr. Griffin is an experienced traveling salesman and knows how to push old goods to rustic consumers, he would have to work in a “store on the couch”. Using the usual presentation style for such establishments - only today you will receive not only PTSS in the new wrapper, the same “workable” as it used to be (it is unlikely that the fundamental shortcomings of the system can be defeated by the new element base and other achievements of this decade), but you will get it cheaper !!! You get it for just 20 billion dollars, Griffin promises. It is now, when the prices for the decade in the military-industrial complex of America have increased by several times, when a transport plane and even a heavy helicopter cost as much as a frigate had recently cost! And it promises the system is cheaper than it would have cost earlier, and, most likely, at times.
Moreover, he promises not only her for the money. Griffin advocates the deployment of 1000 (!) Missile defense interceptors on satellites, they say, without them, hypersonic CDs and Avant-garde systems will not be able to withstand them. And all for the ridiculous 20 of billions. Call now!
Griffin's calculations are just phenomenal. In his opinion, an estimate of the deployment of space interceptors can be calculated at the sum of 20 000 dollars per kilogram - this is the cost of sending materials to a low near-earth orbit. Where did the cost of the missiles and satellite satellites and satellites of the new PTSS iteration go, he forgot to say. Why go into such trifles?
But seriously, 1000 rockets will require dozens, if not hundreds, of satellites. And it’s impossible to hit them flying along flat trajectories and unpredictably maneuvering Avangards and similar systems (we recently announced the development of the next AGGB Anchar-RV). The Americans had already developed the concept of a spacecraft with interceptor missiles on board, and within the framework of the PIO, and a little later, when there was the same, just as “real” program Brilliant Pebbles, nothing happened. Why should it happen now? Yes, even for the funny 20 of billions of portraits of long-rotten presidents.
In fact, everything is much easier. The main thing is to open a topic for financing. Then you can milk the client, promising that you have to pay extra, and more, and more - and then there will be a result. Until he gets bored and the list of unsuccessful programs is not replenished with the next lines. In this case, you can be sure that the list of prisoners in US federal prisons will not exactly fill up the names of neither Griffin, nor those associated with him from Congress or the US Department of Defense.
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