New weapons for Ukraine: a fairy tale or reality?
We often publish materials, often critical, in which we consider the senses and peremogi of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. But we do it from our own, from the Russian side.
Today I propose to discuss the material “from that” from the Ukrainian side. Kirill Danilchenko (Ronin), a patriot of that Ukraine (without a gram of malice, in a country where a different worldview, which is different from ours, could be patriots of him), publishes from time to time news army and military industrial complex of their country.
Naturally, in that light in which the patriot is obliged to do it.
However, fully understanding Cyril, I note that in his latest article ("New weapons for Ukraine") there are a few points that I would like to comment on.
Without any jumps and grimaces, just an opinion from the “other side”.
Actually, Cyril writes very soberly. Sometimes. Sometimes he puts in, but, nevertheless, his opinion is very valuable, because the truth in such matters as the military-industrial complex of Ukraine is always somewhere in the middle of opinions dangling.
What is the whole article about? Description of the positive and negative points in military life in Ukraine. As well as quantitative and qualitative prospects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Translate? Easily. The question of how good the Ukrainian army is "in case of anything." It is clear that the “incident of what” is the Russian army, which either plow and roll the APU into black soil in three days, or not.
Come on.
“Naturally, not all our news is good - flashed and lost on the site Tanks, from which two departments immediately rejected, people died in exercises, there were unpleasant flights at the front. But, in principle, we are all used to the fact that there is reality, but there is a point of view on it. "
Perfectly. Very good approach, all the same happens with us. And people die at the teachings, and the technique is lost. Here, the point is not how much, but how quickly the technique was found and conclusions were drawn for people.
Mortars
The analysis of mortar questions began. Yes, mortar today in Ukraine - weapon on a par with self-propelled guns and barreled artillery.
“For example, the reality is that there were 2B11“ Sledge ”incidents in the APU with 4, and with“ Hammers ”- 8 ...
But “Hammers” is a deadly “artisanal” hand-made article, while “Sani” is a classic that has been proven over the years and you don’t ask. And no one is interested that, for example, Sanya was already in 2016 year, according to The Military Balance, there were only 200 pieces, and since that time they have also been actively developing a resource and scrapping, while the series in 280 pieces M -120-15 "Hammer" was delivered completely, and, most likely, there were more orders. It is quite logical that there, with 2016 to 2018, a year is twice as much an emergency (just the troops are already twice as large).
There, in theory, there is simply nothing to break, it is just a copy of the same “Sled”. There are no sophisticated technologies, new sights, rifling, shutter. Hulking paint or a curved seam cannot make a mine in the barrel, and a charge or expelling charge will not be fatal if a fuse does not start, but public opinion has already been formed. And often not only among the people who saw the “Hammer” in the picture, but also those who actually fought or served in the army. ”
Well, just like in a joke: “You won't spoil the Masha Castle!” - “It depends on what kind of castle ...”
If you believe the Ukrainian Anatoly Tapolsky, who seemed to shoot from these "Molotov", everything is not so luxurious. More precisely, on the couch is the very same thing, this "Hammer". But in a trench ... Yes, even assembled by "skilled hands" ... Yes, in non-core enterprises like the Starokramatorsky Machine Repair Plant ...
Well, I'll just leave it here:
Do you know where I saw such a sight? Yes, in the museum in Padikovo. On the Soviet mortar 1945 year of release.
Who is interested in the continuation, welcome to Tapolsky: (here). Make sure at the same time that I did not lie.
"Hammer" - really artisanal fake "Sled", dangerous for calculations. And the press service of the Ukrainian parliament is blatantly lying, hiding the true number of cases. As always, however. Like colleagues from other countries. Lies performed by the PS of any defense ministry in any country is normal.
We will not talk about crooked hands and excessive alcohol use by officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line. The author did not raise this issue, and I will not. I do not see the meaning, the Internet and YouTube are filled with relevant photos and videos. With the motto “they drank, we drink and we will drink, otherwise we will not live” they fight in the Ukrainian army, but so far the green snake is winning.
Anti-tank weapon
“He is always lacking, always short and always for a month of conflict if it starts. This was heard by almost everyone who was interested in the topic. In the APU from 2014 to 2017, the 66 ATGM was handed over. In 2018, the number of ATGMs was classified (quite logical in connection with the transfer of “Darts”, a large-scale order for emerging parts and SRW). We will not fantasize about the growth of production, as long as there are no concrete facts - even if over the course of the months of 6 months we transferred another two dozen launching units. Plus a minimum of 35 PU 3 generation, who came to us in the framework of military-technical cooperation from the United States. 121 launch unit. Before the war, too, there were purchases, but imagine that we lost them in LAP, and they failed as a result of the hostilities. But do not forget about the transfer of weapons to the GPSU and NSU (for example, only in the NSU - around the 40 ATGM, starting with the 2014 year). Total for all departments - up to 180 – 200 of new ATGMs. ”
Well, not bad, I guess. What is the BC to the "starting units"?
“They produced more than 2000 ATGM, which is much more portable ammunition to the ATGM, and this is quite a decent figure. In addition, more than 600 TOUR - such guided missiles were commissioned.
I remind you that Poland, which is actively transplanted from its “bovup” to KTO Rosomak, has bought all 2003 units since 570, spending on defense three times more money during 15 years ”.
New and old ATGMs ... Well, they did everything. Plus, the "Javelin" United States planted. There are charges. Poland overtook-overtaken. Peremoga?
You know, and maybe yes. Watching something peremogat.
As I understand it, this is an old song. The fact that Ukraine is a European shield against the Russian aggression. And that ukrosoldaty first stand in the way of armadas and hordes of the Russian army. Well and, accordingly, the first and will lay down.
Europe, as I understand it, does not mind at all. It is clear that the devil knows, these hordes will go, or not, and they will have an extra shield on their way.
Logical, right? As in the good old days of ATS was, remember? With the same, in general, the goal - to enable the Soviet army to turn around and save manpower and equipment.
Now Europe is happy to use Ukraine in this form, if that.
The most remarkable thing is that no one asked Ukraine about this. They themselves volunteered to die under the tracks of Russian tanks, taking with them as much as they could.
Question to Cyril: how much can?
And a little bit. And that's why. Ban Danilchenko is very good at finding numbers and opportunities. Very logical and sensible. But he forgets about one such "little thing." If Russia comes to a hypothetical war, it is unlikely that this war will follow Ukrainian laws. This is not the Donbass ...
Ask what I came up with for the Ukrainian laws of war? Yes, I did not invent them. Time came up with them. The laws of poverty, if so.
Nothing 200 ATGM Ukrainians will not be able to do the Russian tanks. They will simply die, and most likely, very ugly and useless. The Russian army has too much scrap today, against which the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not and will not have.
I’m sorry in advance not only for the ATGM calculations, but also further in the text of all those who would die aimlessly under bombs and missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces, under the blows of Tornado, Uragan and other MLRS, under artillery shells and tactical missiles.
No offense - zero chance.
Indeed, if Ukraine does not have an air force, are we also airplanes and helicopters funny? Kirill, are you serious? On the contrary, to plow up everything that is possible, then podtrovtovat artillery, and then, for loyalty - "Buratino" and "Sunlight".
And, by the way, in conditions of complete impotence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as they hardly have an idea how many wonderful surprises are prepared by these unhurried EW guys.
Next, Cyril argues that a fairly large number of anti-tank weapons placed on the mobile chassis. The fact that Luch Design Bureau is doing both Stugu, Corsairs, Barriers, and Barriers-B for helicopters, and issues an export order to Algeria and Azerbaijan, and completes the “desert” modification of Ukrainian ATGMs "Skiff" that KB works almost on the verge of its capabilities.
Excuse me, but what's the point? The sense of your 600-odd platforms, if they are nothing more than teddy bears in the dash for the videoconferencing and (worst) army aviationsharpened just for such entertainment?
“And, of course, this is not a“ coffin, coffin, cemetery ”, it’s time for many people to thoroughly treat their brains.”
Well, no, this is a "coffin, coffin, cemetery." Unless Vanuatu attacks Ukraine. Or someone from the Balts.
Helicopters
“We wrote a lot about helicopters, even a separate article came out - those who wanted it received communion. So, there are two directions for growth points. Put storage on the wing, modernize and remotorize vehicles from transport vehicles to surrogate Mi-8MSB-B, from bare Mi-24, “chemists” and commander modifications to PU-1, and later to all-weather and nightly. Plus, to buy new models abroad, as do, for example, Georgians in the field of air defense, not expecting the secret developments of the domestic military-industrial complex, which do not know analogs, two teaspoons a year. Which, by the way, is well done. For example, only for 2017 year passed 12 machines. Among them are as well as Mi-24 PU-1, and Mi-8MSB-B. Plus, a sensational contract with the French on 55 multi-purpose machines - of course, they will be used in the east of Ukraine, as in the summer battles used the technique of DSNS and GPSU ”.
Ok, pull. Mi-24 is still a good car. In 2016, it seems that Ukraine had more than a hundred cars. On paper. In fact, according to Kirill (I believe), today in the Ukrainian Air Force, all 60 machines are working. That's all, Mi-24, Mi-8 and Mi-2.
What, in fact, congratulations.
Of course, to fight with the militia in the Donbass is a number. Die under the first (the second is not needed) blow VKS RF - also enough. To a serious conflict ... 60 machines ... Well, yes, for a couple of days, I guess.
“In the same Poland, for example, attack helicopters even with the possible purchase of Apache in the United States are less than twice, not to mention Romania and other Eastern European countries (albeit with a large GDP). When 55 multipurpose turntables arrive in France, there will be more 120 flying helicopters in Ukraine - an impressive figure for Eastern Europe, how not to twist and don’t try to pull it here. ”
Easily pull. Not “when,” but “if.” If there is money, and the French will sell. And the question is how. And then maybe Mi-24 still Soviet heritage more abruptly will. In addition, a lot of time will take the development of new technology. Considering that it is not new in time, but in essence ...
Poland, oddly enough, is not going to fight with Russia with one helmet. To do this, there is NATO, in which the Poles are, because they do not need to break up the GDP and so be purchased. Everything is in NATO. Brought, if necessary, and if they have time.
Artillery
“Against the background of the hysterics about the procurement of“ Polish scrap metal, ”we should also look intently into the eyes of reality. Britain, whose military experts like to write about how to repel the Russian threat, has an 86 SAU. In Germany, their 101. Yes, these are modern cars with LMS, with automatic loading and excellent rate of fire. But even with the frontiers of Germany and Britain, their situation with Gulkin’s nose, and if you take line repairs and training units, is still more than bad, despite their space budgets. The Polish "Crab" ordered 40 pieces (obtained 14 and 8), the deadline of the contract - in the 2019 year, but not the fact that they have time. In Ukraine, in the ranks, as of 2018, the year 606 units of ACS, not counting the “Non” of the AAS. When the whole Carnation party of 2C1 from Poland arrives, it will be almost 700. 700 self-propelled guns.
Interesting counting system. And a comparison with Germany and Britain. It seems that these two countries live on the motive “If tomorrow is war ...”. No, this is how Ukraine lives. And Danilchenko measures everything just such a measure, but in vain.
Britain, if Cyril forgot, then I recall, is not in Europe. This, forgive, is an island empire, which is separated by a fairly wide strait from the mainland. And in whom, according to Danilchenko, the British need a bullet from the ACS, I do not understand. And for expedition trips to Afghanistan or Iraq, this is more than enough.
And the British have a fleet ... With guns, rockets and torpedoes. And the Air Force. That is what is not in Ukraine, and the lack of which they are trying to compensate for the ACS.
With Germany the same. They are not going to fight, but even if the Russian hordes rush across the border, they will have to go through Poland and ... Ukraine!
I do not know how real the figure in 700 SAU in the APU, in my opinion - fantasy. Or fantastic. For why then buy Soviet junk across Europe and get barreled artillery from the store?
"Nona" is generally ridiculous. Well, let's also "Cornflowers" few, too, in the receiver artillery we write. In general, then the beauty will be on paper.
Tanks
“Everything is quite transparent here. Despite the shoals with the stabilization system and the OMS at the T-84 competitions in Germany, these armored vehicles (for years, now stored, now in line for modernization and in-line repair) do not particularly affect the combat capability of the tank forces. All fantasies about 100 tanks "Oplot" to 2018 year, the tables from "Ukroboronprom" for years how much BM "Oplot" should come out of the workshops, and how many - T-84 and so on remained on paper, and thank God. Why? They wrote the same way more than once, we will not repeat. A company of “Oplotov” a year is, of course, good, but the T-64 battalion is tactically more flexible under our conditions, and they can more easily close more tasks; money will come later - new tanks will appear. As of 2017, about 180 of modernized vehicles was commissioned - with the replacement of the engine, remote sensing, the installation of a sight and a night vision device. The rest were raised from the grass, from the storehouses, after a medium or major overhaul. The exact figure is difficult to call, so as not to catch repeated repairs. "
Fair. Well done. Indeed, these T-84 and “Oploty”, and with them the Bogdana self-propelled guns, are not able to produce them in Ukraine. Give cheap and cheerful: T-64! Upgraded as much as the strength (that is, a little).
And if there is enough power (money), then even from such a junk as T-64, you can get a sweetie. Well, as in Russia with the T-72. Stretched to T-72B3? Fine? What prevents the same with the T-64 turn? Only money and hands.
It is worth noting, of course, that Russia still has T-90MS, but let's not talk about sad things. As well as about 3 000 potential T-80U in storage and 450 in service. Yes, in Ukraine, T-80 also seems to exist, but in more modest quantities (146 and 22, respectively), and even then, if not sold.
“Today, Ukraine is in the ranks up to the 17 tank battalions and 12 – 13 separate companies in all departments, and together with the tanks for the reserve corps battalions is about 800 machines T-64, T-72 and T-80 of various modifications. We are experiencing problems with spare parts, mobilization stocks of spare parts and the ability to carry out field repairs, but this number is greater than that of Germany, Britain and a couple of Eastern European countries in the appendage. At the very least, we can pin down the enemy in the red zone on the LBS and be able to operate with reserves to the north and on the isthmus if the Russian Federation wants to raise the stakes. ”
Wow ... Shivers sneaks. 800 machines are serious. It is no less serious that there are no spare parts for them, there is no possibility to start the production of these spare parts, no hands to make repairs, no heads, to arrange proper maintenance of T-72 uncharacteristic for Ukraine. Yes, nothing.
Where are these tanks will hold down the army of Russia and on what land there (apparently, if they trample the Crimea), I don’t know. I only know that, most likely, they will be burned on the first day of the war (Staver and I wrote that the tank was, is and will be a valid goal for all who can write it down) Russian Mi-24, Ka-52, Mi-28H, Su-25 and Su-34.
It would be better if Cyril wrote his ideas, than the APU are going to cover their tanks and stuff. Because I understand that they will restrain Russian troops as long as it takes time to destroy them from the air. That is - a little.
“Due to the removal of C-125, C-300B1,“ Torah ”and“ Cuba ”from storage, the number of complexes on combat duty will be increased by a third”.
I read and thought. Is C-125 and “Cuba” Serious? Interestingly, there is no C-75 in the stash? Then, probably, the air will surely be intact in Ukraine. There is something to fear.
“To summarize. Up to 700 SAU in the foreseeable future, in the ranks and the gradual deployment of production under 155-mm caliber, 120 helicopters in the next 3 of the year, dozens of upgraded MRLS, hundreds of artillery barrels, 400 new BTRCs, “Barrier-V” launches with helicopter, Barrier-V helicopters with helicopter, Barrier-V helicopters with helicopter pre-production models of VET-complexes.
800 tanks, more than 1500 vehicles, not counting 300 armored; If you take the cars of NSU and GPSU, this number will double.
Imperceptibly serious modernization of the machine park on Vizar, Artem, in Luch Design Bureau, Pavlograd, where the plant was lifted from its knees from the state of half-dead workshops to 1,5, thousands of personnel and solar panels on the roof, the launch of the hull production facility to the BTR- 4 in Kharkov. The 4 EW helicopters were not overly publicized in terms of SSO, and the fact that EW complexes are already working on the front end, and they are working efficiently in the fight against UAVs. In the meantime, the whole industry comes to life - the production of powders, primers, sleeves. They are purchasing equipment for the production of 155 mm caliber shells, they have begun production of 30-mm and 40-mm grenades, mines of all calibers, repair and upgrade missiles to three types of air defense missiles.
And many simply too quickly forgot the Ukrainian fighters of the 2014 format of the year, in sneakers, with the flag of Germany, not fixed on the uniform, with the beds on the “mess” and what our security forces look like today.
Summer 2018 of the year. The military-industrial complex of Ukraine still needs more effort and funding, but there is solid and confident progress that is hard to miss. ”
But this is clever. Here such a question can even be applauded. Good feed. Smart. Not just “Has not yet died, now has not died out”, but quite a normal story that problems are complete, but they will be solved sooner or later.
That is, the reader is given what he wants. Half-truth or almost no lie. Indeed, one cannot but agree that the APU-2018 and the APU-2014 are fundamentally different things. And the APU-2018 is already an army.
Yes, an army fit for a war pattern from the beginning of the last century or with countries of the third or fourth world, but an army. And this can not be denied.
But for war with the Russian army - more than doubtful.
But if you so want to believe in it - why not? Can? Can. This is not harmful, until it comes to a real collision.
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