In more than three years of confrontation in the Donbass theater of military operations, the degree of unpredictability of the forthcoming actions of the Ukrainian military formations has practically reached its apogee. If, for example, in the summer-autumn period of 2014, it was relatively easy to predict the operational-tactical plans of the Ukrainian armored and artillery units because not so numerous military units of the Armed Forces of the New Russia and the Armed Forces of Ukraine operated on both sides, but on the western the boundaries of the Donetsk-Makeevka and Gorlovsk-Enakiy agglomerations were not yet powerful and tightly located fortified areas of the NM DPR, today the situation has changed dramatically in the opposite direction. The successful closure and liquidation of the “Debaltsevskiy boiler”, as well as the deployment of powerful strongholds of the 1 Army Corps of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR in the areas of Kominternovo and Vodyany (the height of “Daring”) in the Novoazovsk operational direction, finally became the 53 of the separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces (OMB ) and the 36-th separate brigade of marines (36-th OBMP) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a powerful deterrent against the background of plans to conduct local offensive operations on the Southern and Northern fronts of New Russia.
The number of reconstructed artillery and armored trophy weapons seized from Ukrainian formations in tactical boilers, as well as quite rightly received due to the presence of the “Northern wind” in response to unofficial lethal supplies weapons from the USA and Western Europe, in the corps of the People's Militia of the republics by 2017 exceeded the thousandth mark, which, fortunately, allowed the armies of the republics to give a worthy counter-battery response to the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as to suppress most attempts in advance tank and infantry attacks on settlements located 3-7 km from the line of contact. Attempts to carry out similar local offensive operations by the forces of one or two tank companies and infantry platoons, we have more than once observed in relation to the villages of Kominternovo (Novoazovskoe ON), Belaya Kamenka (Telmanovskoe ON), Verkhnetoretskoe (Donetsk operational directions), as well as Gladosovo and Travnevoe. But if the latter, staying in the "gray zone", were taken under the control of Ukrainian militants in just a few hours due to the absence of anti-tankmen in the settlements and the necessary number of snipers of the NM DNR, then such actions in relation to the Cominternovo and Verkhnetoretsky would have resulted in huge losses for the Ukrainian militants as in technology, and in personnel. Several similar actions by the Azov regiment, the nationalist formations of the Right Sector and the 36th Marine Brigade were suppressed in the 15th and 16th years.
Nevertheless, to relax in the current operational-tactical situation is absolutely not necessary. Washington’s military-political defeat at the Syrian theater of military operations, where the “Syrian democratic forces” (represented by the Kurdish YPJ / YPG formations) ultimately failed to overcome the Euphrates and take control of the most important highways in the southern part of Deir ez-Zor province, As a result, the Pentagon’s geo-strategic “focus” shifted from the Middle East to the Donbass. But this time, after the debacle of pro-American forces in the mainstream of the Euphrates, the political positions of the administration of the head of the White House became much shakier, due to which the “hawks” in Congress and the State Department were able to finally “spread their wings”, receiving even more tools of political pressure on Donald Trump, whose rating by December 2017, fell to 37%.
The results were not long in coming: just three weeks in December was enough for Trump to approve the delivery of the “Square” American lethal weapons. The first military aid package worth a total of 41,5 million dollars, providing for the transfer to Kiev of large-caliber Barrett M12,7A82 1 rifles, was approved by the US Department of State 21 December 2017 of the year. The second, most widely distributed in the “Square”, package is authorized by 23 December, and provides for the delivery of 35 transport-launching “tubes” of the Javelin FGM-148 complex, as well as 210 anti-tank missiles for them. Its value is close to 47 million. A few days earlier, the Government of Canada at the legislative level ratified a document providing for Ukraine to be included in the list of Allied Allies that can receive Canadian lethal weapons through NATO military sales. Naturally, this means only one thing: Kiev will be able to informally receive almost all types of anti-tank and artillery American weapons, using Ottawa as a transit transshipment point, not burdened with responsibility to the “Minsk” or “Norman” formats.
And judging by what is happening, this scheme begins to be tested safely in practice. For example, in the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they tried to use a trick, declaring 9 on January 2018 of the year that instead of the Javelin anti-tank systems, the junta’s anti-tankists would receive the TOW-2A / B complexes. This caused a huge resonance in the circles of the Ukrainian militarized formations, because these complexes (except for “TOW-2B Aero”) are equipped with an outdated microwire control system, and also do not allow to work on the “let-forget” principle with hitting targets from the upper hemisphere (in dive mode ). However, the plot turned out to be quite twisted. After all, January 17, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Muzhenko trumpeting, that the Ukrainian formations are preparing for the adoption of the FGM-148 "Javelin", while the operators will use these systems abroad, obviously, operators of Javelins (Lithuania, USA, France, Great Britain, etc.). He also said that the launching “tubes” and anti-tank guided missiles would arrive in the “Square” in 2 — 6 months. After one more day, Poroshenko announced the transfer of “Darts” to the Ukrainian military formations, focusing on the fact that this military aid package would be fully financed by the US defense department; all in the favorite "asking" style Square. Nevertheless, laughter is laughter, and there is a beginning of a new phase of Western military technical support for the current Ukrainian regime, where the militarization of the junta is being transferred from an unofficial form to a fully legal field. From this point on, numerous types of small arms and anti-tank weapons will simply flood officially into Ukraine, while various types of artillery weapons, including adjustable artillery shells, mortar mines, and maybe something more serious, will get to the Ukrainian formations through the “Canadian Voentorg ".
“For a snack” 18 January 280-mi people's deputies The Verkhovna Rada nevertheless accepted the perfidious and to the core criminal bill No. 7163 “On Donbass Reintegration”, the “critical” amendments of which, in fact, finally liquidate any obligations of Kiev to the Normandy Four and the "Minsk format", unleashing the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hands to continue the punitive operation against Donetsk and Lugansk. Boris Gryzlov, Russia's plenipotentiary representative in the “Tripartite Contact Group” to resolve the situation in the Donbas, responded most eloquently to the situation with the ratification of the above-mentioned bill. He called on the LDNR “is preparing for defense.” It is not at all difficult to understand that the recognition of the Russian side as an “aggressor”, in parallel with the official activation of the western military trade union, removes from Moscow any restrictions on the mirror support of the republics. At the same time, it can be provided both directly and through South Ossetia or Abkhazia (a mirror-image of the “Canadian Voentorg”).
It is easy to assume that this development of the situation will soon lead to the next escalation scenario in the Donbas, but not at all on the scale that we observed during the outgoing year. The extremely important point here is the realization by the Nazi “top” in Kiev that the current US regime is in an extremely difficult political situation after blocking the SDF only on the eastern coast of the Euphrates, as well as after the military infrastructure of the USCM based on At-Tanf that finally holds Washington's hands and feet in any attempt to pull the blanket over to his side in the matter of the rapid expansion of the 55-kilometer security zone by the forces of the New Syrian Army or the SSA. Under the circumstances, the only root for preserving Washington’s face is Kiev’s support in the Donbas, and not the usual (with optical-radio reconnaissance near Mariupol strategic drones RQ-4A), but wide-spectrum, with the participation of the Special Operations Forces, transfer of high-precision weapons, etc. . All this in the Square has long been “felt”, and therefore will continue destructive actions for further aggravation.
It is very important to analyze the possible operational directions in which the junta can attempt an offensive operation. Immediately, we note that no general offensive, about which numerous alarmists and other military “experts” of the Runet like to discuss in the comments, is out of the question, because the defense of the new Azov, Donetsk, Gorlovka and Debaltsev directions is today at an unprecedented level as in in terms of local anti-tank "barriers", and in terms of artillery "kulaks", which means that the attempt of their assault on the part of the junta will end in wrecking Ukrainian formations in battles near the line of contact with conductive their "softening" and the transition NM DNR units counterattacked. The fact is that on the western coast of Kalmius, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have a single full-fledged fortified area, except for Mariupol, Volnovakha and the “Kurakhovsky knot”. Even if the Ukrainian units will be able to temporarily break through the front line in the above directions, they will not be able to gain a foothold in new positions, since the depth of the rear areas here varies from 45 to 70 km, which will allow the DNI army to successfully distribute forces and take the enemy into regular tactical "boilers ". As a result, the defeat of the latter in battles will mean the total failure of the junta on the southern front of the DPR.
However, not everything is so simple here. In addition to the 3-x of the above highly protected operational areas, there are also the so-called “risk windows” in the defense of the People’s Militia of the DPR, whose security is almost an order of magnitude worse than that observed in the Svetlodar springboard area. We are talking about the southern sections of the Telmanovsky Isthmus, or to be more precise, about the Pishevik-October-Rosa Luxemburg loopholes, as well as Pavlopol-Sosnovskoye-Konkovo. The operational depth of the rear zones in these areas does not reach 40 km (from the contact line to the Russian border), while the distance from the developed fortified areas 1 of the AK NM DPR in Novoazovsk, Bezymenny and Telmanovo exceeds 10 km. This, in turn, creates significant difficulties for the divisions of NM DPR in organizing direct fire control of the western approaches to the strategic Starobeshevo-Novoazovsk route; It is this highway that is the only “artery” for operational saturation of the Southern Front of the DPR with additional units being transferred from the central part of the republic and the rear areas.
The catch is that in order to ensure that the fire control of country roads along the Pishevik-October-Rosa Luxemburg line, where the APU has the most chances for a breakthrough, the positions of the DPR anti-tank artillery batteries with 2A29 "Rapier" guns are in service should be deployed near such settlements as Ukrainian, Chumak and Samsonovo. It is from these lines that the more or less effective use of the 100-mm "Rapier" against the Ukrainian armored "fists" is possible. Moreover, calculations of Konkurs-M ATGMs capable of effectively striking Ukrainian T-64БВ not only in side projections, but also in frontal ones (using tandem ATGM 9М113М with armor penetration 750 mm for dynamic protection). At the same time, the provincial infrastructure of the above-mentioned villages does not allow NM DPR units to create powerful fortifications in the south of the Telman district, especially against the background of the 2,5-multiple superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the number of vehicles. In favor of ukrov here also plays the proximity of Sartana and Volnovakhi. These large settlements are located closer to the “risk windows” in 2 — 2,5 are times closer than Novoazovsk or Bezmennoe; It is logical that the tactical advantage here will be on the side of the APU. Moreover, in Volnovakha and Sartan, mixed formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, foreign PMCs, and volunteer battalions of more than 5500 — 7000 militants are deployed, which is 3 — 5 times the number of brigades and battalions of the DPR army responsible for the defense of Telmanovsky Isthmus.
The increased likelihood of escalation of the conflict in the “risk windows” “Pavlopol-Sosnovskoye” or “Pishevik-October” is indicated not only by the geography of the southern regions of the Donbas theater of operations conducive to Ukrainian forces, but also by the operational information received from eyewitnesses, military officials and representatives of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR for 2017 year. In particular, at the beginning of the year, a battery of 203-mm self-propelled 2-XNNXX “Peony” ultra-long-range 7-mm self-propelled artillery guns was transferred to Pavlopol (northeastern environs of Mariupol) at the beginning of the year. About this with reference to the operational command of the National Assembly of the DPR, the republican media, as well as the community “Militia briefs”, stated. Later, information about the availability of ACS data under Mariupol became forgotten, nevertheless, the fact remains: the most formidable barreled artillery units in the post-Soviet space continue to remain near the southern part of the contact line. For what? Not hard to guess.
Long-range self-propelled guns 2С7 "Peony", which are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Considering the fact that standard 203-mm high-explosive fragmentation projectiles ZOF43 have a range of 37400 m, and active-reactive ZOF44 - 47500 m, the APU will be able to use "Peonies" to deliver long-range punches on transport hubs and armored columns near Novoazovsk, Telmanovo and even located in the rear area Starobeshevo. The availability of the APU more than 80 ACS 2C7 puts at risk not only the operation of the NM units of the NPT far from the contact line, but also the lives of the civilian population of almost the entire North Azov region, including the border areas of Russia in the Rostov region. Moreover, the mixed artillery unit from 40 guns (MT-12 "Rapier", "Acacia", "Gvozdika", "Hyacinth-B" and D-30) was deployed in the settlements of Rybatskoye and Melekino (Belosaray Spit). Without a doubt, Kiev holds these formations in the Azov region for artillery preparation before the coming offensive in the direction of the southern villages of the Telmanovsky district, while from the north support will be provided by batteries deployed near Volnovakha.
Information regarding the transfer of assault units that are part of the volunteer regiments and the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Mariupol Fortified Area (sector “M”) comes from witnesses almost daily. Thus, over the past 2 weeks, increased activity of the formations of the “Azov” regiment was recorded, information about which for unknown reasons did not appear in the operational reports of the defense department of the Donetsk People's Republic. So, from the last days of December to 15 in January 2018 of the year, more than 62 — 4 of armed squadrons in the number of 6 — XNXX — were deployed to the MAZ tent van on the large left-bank training base Azov, on the territory of the former secondary school No. 150 , which indicates preparation for intense clashes with the use of infantry units in the vicinity of Mariupol.
The success of the People’s Militia Corps in repelling such a “throw” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will depend solely on the correct understanding of the tactical situation in the Mariupol-Volnovakha segment on the left side of the Kalmius River by the command of the DPR army. Reinforcement on the Wavekhivsky direction does not tolerate delays, because quite recently, according to data from eyewitnesses from Kherson region, an enormous KrAZ column of the Ukrainian Armed Forces followed the Nizhny Tagil 14 on semi-trailers on the semi-trailers, and this already says a lot.