Military Review

Caution, "Pike"

35



An analysis of the possible results of submarine combat ("In the first dive", "Los Angeles" is less ") will be incomplete without representatives of the second generation. It is interesting to consider our submarine project 671РТМ. The rest are more inferior in their armament to third generation ships and have almost no chance in modern submarine combat.

The 671РТМ (“Pike”) project, which I conditionally refer to the “2 +” generation, has six torpedo tubes. Of these, two caliber 650 millimeters and four - 533 millimeter. In this situation, we assume that they are predominantly charged with anti-submarine weapons. We take this option: two PLUR "Waterfall" 83P, 3 most common, although the old SET-65 and one self-propelled submarine simulator. Among the remaining 18 spare units, we assume that there are four more PLUR “Waterfall” 83Р and six SET-65.

Consideration will begin with the possible nature of the actions of our submarine against a third-generation submarine - "Los Angeles". The detection range of our submarine "American" is much smaller, due to the higher noise of the "Pike" and not so effective GAK. Therefore, in favorable hydroacoustic conditions, we are talking about 35 – 60 kilometers in the infrasonic range and 15 – 20 kilometers in sound. If the submarine and its target are on opposite sides of the jump layer, the mutual detection range is reduced to three to eight kilometers.

We take three options for the conditions of occurrence of the battle of our submarine with "Los Angeles". The first one is detection in the infrasonic range at a distance requiring convergence to reach the “sound” contact. The second - “American” is heard, but it is outside the zone of effective use of our torpedo weapons. The third option is the sudden detection of an enemy submarine at a short distance.

Distance matters

In the first version, our submarine is likely to be detected with a high anticipation by “Los Angeles”. Nevertheless, the chances that the enemy will be identified in the infrasound channel of the GAK before its entry into the salvo position are quite substantial. Although the likelihood that the project 671РТМ will find "Los Angeles" at a distance exceeding the effective range of torpedoes Mk-48, is extremely small. Most likely, “Los Angeles” will take a position for a volley at a distance, ensuring the effective use of its weapon (18 – 20 km), while remaining unnoticed. But the fact of the shot and the movement of torpedoes from such a distance will be revealed by the SJC of the 671РТМ project. Our submarine, having a time reserve of 10 – 12 minutes, will use the active path GAK, which will make it possible to recognize the attacking submarine and the simulators used by it with a relatively high probability. According to this data, she will be able to apply her PLUR and GAP facilities. Under such conditions, taking into account hydroacoustic interference, the probability of hitting Los Angeles by one PLUR can be estimated at 0,15 – 0,25, and by two - respectively 0,28 – 0,48. The enemy will be forced to maneuver, evading PLUR, apply the means of active hydroacoustic suppression. As a result, the torpedo telecontrol will likely be disrupted. The probability of the destruction of our submarine is 0,4 – 0,5.

Further, the contact may be lost by both sides in connection with the use by the adversary of means of the gap and intensive maneuvering. Therefore, the "duelists" will find out the results of the battle, and if the target is not destroyed, a new exchange of blows will follow. Further rapprochement will put in the best position the "American" with its more effective torpedo weapon.

In the second version, “Los Angeles” will be dialed by our submarine at a distance equal to or less than the most effective range of its torpedoes - 12 – 15 kilometers. This means that the enemy will secretly take his position and use the weapon, remaining undetected until the moment of salvo. Nevertheless, the relatively long time of the torpedoes (8 – 10 minutes) will allow the “Pike” to use PLUR. If the enemy succeeds in moving closer to a still smaller distance, having entered the dead zone of our missiles, which is about seven to eight kilometers, it remains to use three ETS-65 according to the direction finding and the active path of the GAK. Shooting in such conditions and from such a distance does not ensure effective destruction. Its probability, taking into account the highly effective means of enemy GAP, will be 0,07 – 0,12.

In the third variant, the target will be detected within the dead zone of the PLUR and it will be necessary to attack with ordinary torpedoes. Moreover, the enemy preempts our submarine in a volley and she will have to respond with an extreme shortage of time - the bill will go on for minutes. With a retaliatory volley from three ETS-65s, taking into account the intensive maneuvering of the enemy and the use of HAP tools, the probability of destroying “Los Angeles” can be estimated approximately the same as for the 971 project: 0,15 – 0,2.
Beat classmates

In a battle with a submarine of the second generation or equivalent to it, for example, the English "Trafalgar" or the French "Rubis", our 671РТМ project will not have a significant superiority in the detection range of the enemy. Under favorable hydroacoustic conditions, it will be up to 60 – 80 kilometers in the infrasonic range and 25 – 35 kilometers in sound. With adverse - 40 – 50 and up to 20 – 25 kilometers, respectively. The mutual detection range of boats located on different sides of the jump layer is reduced to four to six kilometers.

If the target is detected at a long distance according to the infrasound channel, the submarine of the project 671РТМ approaches it at the distance of contact with the sound path GAK, after which it maneuvers to determine the location of the target and its movement elements in the passive mode. Upon readiness of the source data, one or two PLURs are fired. The probability of hitting a target with a sudden strike and a short time to use GPA tools can be quite high - 0,4 – 0,5. However, there remains a substantial likelihood that the enemy himself will prevent our boat, will be able to secretly go into the position of a volley and use weapons. During the battle, conditions may arise for the exchange of torpedo attacks, in which case the probability of destroying the enemy should be assessed in 0,6 – 0,7.
The second option differs only in the fact that our submarine detects a target already in the sound channel. As the enemy increases the chances of pre-empting the “Pike” in a salvo, the probability of destroying an “Englishwoman” or “Frenchwoman” is less - 0,4 – 0,5.

In the third variant, the submarine will most likely not have the opportunity to use PLUR. And here the superiority of the enemy in the funds of the gap and the quality of the torpedo weapon can affect.

Depth calculations

The analysis of the likely tactics of actions of different submarines allows us to evaluate the possible outcome of the battle. Let's start with the duel of "Los Angeles" and the 971 project in favorable hydrological conditions ("Los Angeles" less "). The main advantage of our submarine is the presence of PLUR, which makes it possible to deliver a preemptive strike. Moreover, favorable hydrological conditions make it possible to realize this advantage to the full: the enemy, being in the zone of destruction of our PLUR, will be forced to approach the Shark for a long time to reach the torpedo salvo with a high probability of being detected and attacked. The superiority of the "American" in the detection range does not give much advantage. Our submarine, although inferior in this parameter, is capable of detecting the enemy before it leaves the salvo position with torpedoes and deliver a preemptive strike. However, "LA" can oppose to our advantage in the firing range the superior quality of the tools GAP. The outcome of the duel can be estimated as follows: the probability of the destruction of "Los Angeles" - 0,5 – 0,6, our project 971 - 0,3 – 0,4.

Under unfavorable conditions, the possibility of the “American” entering the position of the volley increases significantly before the “Shark” finds the enemy and applies the PLUR. In this case, the superiority of our submarine in the range of the weapon is largely leveled, but the superiority of the American Mk-48 torpedoes and GAP vehicles is more noticeable. As a result, the probability of hitting Los Angeles is reduced to 0,3 – 0,35, and our submarine rises to 0,55 – 0,65. The result of the battle when opponents detect each other at a pistol shot distance is uniquely determined by the superiority of the “American” as a torpedo weapon and the tools of the gap: the probability of Los Angeles being killed is 0,2 – 0,3, our 971 is 0,7 – 0,8.

The averaged estimate of the outcome of the Los Angeles battle against the 971 project, taking into account the probability distribution of the options for the hydrological conditions in the proposed operational-critical areas where our submarines can take place against the US, is as follows: 0,35 – 0,55 - the probability of the death of Los Angeles and 0,4 – 0,65 - our 971 project.

Without going into details of the calculation, it can be noted that the outcome of the Los Angeles duel with a second-generation submarine that does not have PLUR, for example, the Chinese 093 Shan project, will be much more sad for the enemy. 0,05 – 0,1 - the probability of the death of “Los Angeles” and 0,85 – 0,9 - project 093.

The submarine battle of the 971 project against the British and French counterparts will proceed under the sign of the overall superiority of our ship in the range of both detection and use of anti-submarine weapons. The only thing that can be recognized is the advantage of these opponents - the means of the gap, which will play their role in mutual detection at a small distance and within the dead zone of our PLUR.

Averaged assessment of the outcome of the battle of Project 971 with a second-generation submarine in the proposed areas of the Northern operational zone fleet: 0,8–0,95 - probability of death of the “Englishwoman” or “Frenchwoman” and 0,1–0,12 - of our project 971

It remains to assess the possible outcome of the battle "Pikes" with a foreign submarine of the second generation - "Trafalgar" or "Rubis". The 671RTM project will not have a decisive superiority in detection range. And the likelihood of the enemy entering the salvo position with torpedo weapons becomes very substantial. The influence on the outcome of the battle of the superiority factor in the means of the gap increases.

In favorable hydrological conditions, our submarine, due to the relatively high probability of detecting a target at a distance exceeding the firing range of torpedoes, will outstrip the enemy and strike PLUR without entering the zone of reach of his weapon. However, in the future, the probability of approaching submarines at a distance where the enemy will be able to reach our torpedoes will significantly increase. The outcome of the duel of the project .671РТМ with a second-generation foreign woman can be as follows: the probability of the death of "Pike" is 0,2 – 0,3, and her opponent is 0,5 – 0,6.

Under unfavorable conditions, the likelihood of submarines moving closer to the effective use of torpedo weapons in the 671РТМ project increases. In this case, the enemy can preempt. But our submarine even under the most adverse conditions will have time to make at least one salvo of PLUR. Having taken measures to evade the attack, she (if he escapes) will begin to maneuver. Similarly, the enemy will act. With this development, the probability of hitting the 671РТМ project rises to 0,35 – 0,5, and Trafalgar or Rubis decreases to 0,4 – 0,5.

If each other is detected at a short distance - within the dead zone of our PLUR - the situation will develop similarly to the battle involving the 971 project. An essential role will be played by the superiority of the enemy in the combat capabilities of the GAP facilities. Given the comparable quality of torpedo weapons, the result can be 0,5 – 0,7 - the probability of the death of our submarine of the project 671РТМ and 0,3 – 0,4 - “Englishwoman” or “Frenchwoman”.

The averaged estimate of the total battlefield of the 671РТМ project with a second-generation foreign submarine: 0,45 – 0,55 is the probability of the death of the enemy submarine, 0,4 – 0,45 is ours.

Such are the estimates of the likely outcome of the battle of various submarines, in which the superiority of Russian and American third-generation submarines is clearly visible. This is not surprising, since such submarines still exist in large numbers only in the Russian and American fleets. The English and French fleets have just begun to adopt the ships of the third (more precisely, “3 +”) generation. China builds nuclear submarines, which, according to their tactical and technical data, primarily in terms of noise and the capabilities of hydroacoustic reconnaissance and surveillance, still belong to the second generation. The same is true in India, where the production of self-developed submarines began. The rest of the countries do not build nuclear submarines. Meanwhile, the fourth and fourth generation nuclear submarines began to enter service with the American and Russian fleets. The United States with its "Virginia" ahead of us - they have already in the ranks of more than a dozen such ships. We with the 885 project are inferior in quantitative terms, but we are ahead in quality. Were it not for 90, we would not have lagged behind the Americans. However, in our design bureaus, works on projects of the fifth generation are already in full swing.
Author:
Originator:
https://vpk-news.ru/articles/40139
35 comments
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  1. andrewkor
    andrewkor 3 December 2017 06: 30
    +7
    Regardless of the outcome of the discussion of this article and previously published, I respect the work of the Author in analyzing such vast information and intelligibly presented for us users! Thank!
    1. Cat
      Cat 3 December 2017 07: 37
      +2
      Coefficients - the coefficients drive, but it’s fascinating after all! hi
      1. Romario_Argo
        Romario_Argo 3 December 2017 19: 31
        +3
        Konstantin Sivkov has a series on the use of submarines
        specifically for our nuclear submarines, it’s good that this year I remembered about PLURs already + (plus)
        but about our anti-submarine borders for some reason it has not yet reached! - (minus)
        PLURA then on a third-party control center, already with a different coefficient, Elk is drowned.
        there is work to do next year
        1. 2534M
          2534M 4 December 2017 07: 12
          0
          Quote: Romario_Argo
          it’s good that this year I remembered about PLURs already

          it would be better if Sivkov did not touch them with his dirty paws
          Quote: Romario_Argo
          but about our anti-submarine borders for some reason it has not yet reached!

          :) I think it will be a notable GAP
          1. Romario_Argo
            Romario_Argo 4 December 2017 10: 58
            +2
            I think it will be a noble BREAK

            This article is about a hypothetical situation that cannot be.
            1. the entire maritime border has 2 submarine boundary with hydrophones
            2. our anti-submarine aviation keeps track of the preemptive entry of the enemy nuclear submarines
            3. all of our submarines leave the bases after driving by Minesweepers and IPC
            4. PLAT PR 971 is inextricably linked with RRC 1164, TARK 1144, 949 PLAR and accordingly SSBNs
  2. shinobi
    shinobi 3 December 2017 09: 19
    +3
    All this is very interesting, the author has respect for the analysis and the article. But the battle of submarines is an extremely rare occurrence. Not for this they were created and their goals are different. upon detection, they will try to quickly break the contact of detection and drain information to anti-submarine ships. In modern realities, boats go alone only for reconnaissance. This does not apply to missile carriers on combat duty. But they are not intended for combat at all.
  3. navy33
    navy33 3 December 2017 09: 42
    +7
    Greetings to all! Thank you for the article, although I served in the warhead-1, but visited the nostalgia, thank you. Sorry, but our RTM B-524 is gone.
    1. rudolff
      rudolff 3 December 2017 11: 44
      +8
      B-524, 33 DiPL ?! One of the most famous ships of the legendary division! My respect and honor!
      Warhead-1? Already worked on Dipper?
      1. navy33
        navy33 4 December 2017 11: 29
        +3
        Yes, the navigator worked for her, and I served in boatswain. hi
        1. rudolff
          rudolff 4 December 2017 12: 15
          +3
          Well ... The boatswain on the submarine is probably the most respected person after the commander! I am also a warhead-1, only in the 971s. 24th DIPL.
          drinks
          1. Andrey NM
            Andrey NM 4 December 2017 13: 16
            +2
            And I, I - "Chinese" :). But the boatswrights were always on my watch in front of my nose. What's in the CPU, what's on the top. Oh, youth!
      2. stas-xnumx
        stas-xnumx 5 December 2017 12: 37
        +1
        91-93, warhead-5, electrician, with me commanders k.2 p. Babayan, then k.1r. Sufferers, I welcome everyone!
  4. zoknyay82
    zoknyay82 3 December 2017 10: 07
    +3
    ... The USA with its Virginia got ahead of us - they already have more than a dozen such ships in service. Project 885 and I are inferior in quantitative terms, but ahead in qualitative ones. Were it not for the 90s, we would not be behind the Americans. However, work on fifth-generation projects is already in full swing in our design bureaus ... This is only what pleases.
    1. 2534M
      2534M 4 December 2017 07: 12
      0
      Quote: zoknyay82
      but ahead in quality.

      don't bullshit hurt her
  5. rudolff
    rudolff 3 December 2017 11: 38
    32
    It would be necessary to ask the site administration that authorship should be indicated next to the title of the article. That would not waste time once again. Sivkov, this is a rare yap and balabol, whose opuses are taken seriously, do not respect yourself. These are not calculations, but digital nonsense.
    671 calls RTM Pike, and the 971th Shark. But if you use our classification, then use it, why jump to the NATO?
    The claim that Moose is superior in terms of performance characteristics over pikes is more than controversial. It is necessary to compare specific series (Blocks) of LA and Pike. It was with RTM / RTM (K) that, for the first time, for the main characteristics, we came close to the Amer MCLs, including noise and detection range. It was on Shchuki that the Skat Hook appeared for the first time, which in fact was in no way inferior to the Elk Huck and which subsequently, along with Ursa Major and Omnibus, migrated to the 971 project. After Aport and Atrina, the Americans were shocked by the capabilities of the RTMs, they did not expect such a quantum leap. No wonder RTM (K) is still standing.
    All these calculations, who will be the first to discover whom, are nonsense. Everything is an order of magnitude more complicated and to operate with absolute numbers, to put it mildly, a little harsh. We sometimes found “contact” on the BS in the 971s only after anti-submarine maneuvering and “unexpected” semicirculation. How much they previously hung on our “tail”, only God knows. The first thing the Americans did when establishing a “contact” was to determine the course and, in the low noise, go into the back hemisphere, away from Skat's bow antenna. A towed antenna is far from always available, and it has a wagon and a small trolley. In this position, the Elk could attack us almost point-blank, and if at a distance it is not a fact that we would immediately detect the launch of a torpedo. They have them leave with TA. In the same way we caught them and in the same way "grazed". And sometimes without little sides they rubbed without hearing or seeing anything, neither we of them, nor they of us. Everything seems to be clean, but then suddenly, at someone’s side, an alien echo-meter is cut. Regarding the inclusion of the active HAC tract after shooting simulators, this is generally cool. Why the hell do you need these simulators if, with the active impulses of the HAK, torpedo boats will be tied to the target by iron ropes!
    As Sivkov rose to two gaps on uniform, HZ.
    1. NEXUS
      NEXUS 3 December 2017 12: 44
      +6
      Quote: rudolff
      The claim that Moose is superior in terms of performance characteristics over pikes is more than controversial.

      Rudolph, friend, welcome. hi
      Well, what can I say ... Kazan was taken out of the dock. We are already waiting for the serial Ash-M and, God forbid, they will surrender it faster than the head one. Well, there you look, after the 20th year, the laying of the head Husky may loom, who knows ... in any case, it arrived in our regiment, although it has not yet been surrendered to the fleet.
      1. rudolff
        rudolff 3 December 2017 14: 50
        +4
        Good day, Andrey! Kazan will be “rolled” for another year and a half, no less. Husky is still at the formative stage. Those. taking into account the preliminary (outline), further technical design, development of working technical documentation, before laying the lead ship for about ten years. And it is very optimistic. Soon all hulls of the ordered Ashen series will be in operation. Whatever the "pit" is formed on Sevmash, the series of Ash-trees must be at least doubled, no matter how expensive it may be.
        1. NEXUS
          NEXUS 3 December 2017 18: 29
          +3
          Quote: rudolff
          Whatever the "pit" is formed on Sevmash, the series of Ash-trees must be at least doubled, no matter how expensive it may be.

          I absolutely agree with you. At the same time, I believe that if the series is increased, and the price will be optimized. But still, 2 lard per unit is too much for us.
    2. 2534M
      2534M 3 December 2017 13: 41
      +1
      Quote: rudolff
      Sivkov, this is a rare yap and balabol, whose opuses are taken seriously, do not respect yourself

      agree
      Quote: rudolff
      The claim that Moose is superior in terms of performance characteristics over pikes is more than controversial.

      and here it is just like that
      Pikes are inferior, and very significantly
      Quote: rudolff
      It was with RTM / RTM (K) that, for the first time, for the main characteristics, we came close to the Amer ICLMs, including in terms of noise and detection range. It was on the Pikes that the Skat Hook first appeared, which was practically in no way inferior to the Elk HOOK

      does not correspond to reality
      1. From one document of the end of 80 - “Sturgeon is a well-noisy RTM” (about “Losa and comparison with them and there’s no talk)
      2. See for example Dudko - one of the key factors of his success was “brulik”, but without “brulik” the effectiveness of “Skat” was extremely low
      1. rudolff
        rudolff 3 December 2017 14: 38
        +3
        If interested, here about Skat and RTM:
        https://memoclub.ru/2012/10/ot-karpovki-do-norvez
        hskogo-morya /
        1. rudolff
          rudolff 3 December 2017 15: 19
          +4
          And here is more about the HAC Los Angeles:
          http://commi.narod.ru/txt/1995/0802.htm
          1. rudolff
            rudolff 3 December 2017 15: 45
            +6
            Our main problem has always been computing systems as part of the SAC. Affected by a general lag in radio electronics. It was not enough physically to “hear” someone else’s submarine, it was also necessary to isolate these characterizing sounds, signals, correctly identify, select, etc. Those. HAK physically “heard” the target, but did not understand it at the hardware level. This was partially solved by increasing the mass and dimensions of computer systems. This is a problem and on RTM (K) was also on the 971th, 949Ath migrated, although to a lesser extent.
            1. jjj
              jjj 3 December 2017 18: 49
              0
              Only adversary ships have a constant tendency to crash into something: into a rock, a trawler, a dry cargo ship
    3. Xaron-a
      Xaron-a 3 December 2017 13: 46
      +2
      Real naval stories are very interesting. Maybe stir up the article on IN?
      Without sarcasm and irony. hi
    4. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 4 December 2017 00: 31
      +3
      Quote: rudolff
      As Sivkov rose to two gaps on uniform, HZ.

      He served in the Brilliant Headquarters in the group of vigorous planning, however ... It surprises me more how he stayed completely ... bully
      1. Andrey NM
        Andrey NM 16 December 2017 22: 12
        0
        We have most of the "experts" - graduates of political schools or political students. By the way, a lot of Lviv political. And try in biographies to find where they served.
    5. Serg65
      Serg65 4 December 2017 10: 51
      +3
      hi Hello master of the depths!
      Quote: rudolff
      As Sivkov rose to two gaps on uniform, HZ.

      This type of civilian appearance is very strange! In the 76th he graduated from Popovka, at the 92nd General Staff Academy, between the graduation and the General Staff Academy, and also VMA i.e. 3 years (combat drill?) To VMA and 3 years between academies ....... here without a furry mittens, well, not like that!
      Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
      What surprises me more is how he remained a capra ...

      bully So I’m tormented by the question of how I didn’t get the pants with stripes as a “talent”, with two academies in the asset ???
      1. rudolff
        rudolff 4 December 2017 11: 54
        +1
        Hello Serge! Yes, a muddy person. On the one hand, a hectic career. School, two academies, almost without military service. On the other hand, he reached the General Staff and did not even receive a counter. But he wiped his pants there for more than ten years. Apparently, the pusher behind his shoulders broke.
        I remember how he hysteria live about the Mistral. Like, for this money it would be possible to build a whole division of Ash-trees with Boreas. If only the cost of these Ash-trees looked, before carrying such a blizzard.
        But by the way, they will be surprised. When Sivkov was in the General Staff, there probably were all of them. It is enough to recall the first and second Chechen, Kursk, the reform of the army under Ivanov, the stupid war with Georgia.
        1. Andrey NM
          Andrey NM 4 December 2017 13: 27
          +3
          Rudolph, do you remember Kumzhu? I somehow took part with the crew so as not to lie, in 1989, I don’t remember a month, but there was no snow. This is after the 949th rocket was launched during the time limit. It struck me that there were 2 lieutenant colonels in the graduates, one of them was a tanker. I remember him, because going down through the hatchway, he smacked "oh, like in a tank, only very large." In general, it was amusing to watch how the comrades in green uniform tried to go into the stern of the ship along the lower decks and holds and were surprised that there were no bulkhead doors.
          1. rudolff
            rudolff 4 December 2017 14: 48
            +2
            Kumzhu remember, of course. It was periodically held, although we were not always attracted. But not the 89th year for sure, I appeared a little later than you in the North. Also the "green" climbed the boat. They from the Academy of the General Staff for these exercises probably rolled under a hundred.
        2. Andrey NM
          Andrey NM 16 December 2017 22: 20
          0
          Rudolph, you can talk for a long time about all these "experts." The same Cherkashin often acts as an expert, but even with all due respect after some of his statements about submariners ... When he "called" the remote control, using a personal breathing device ... Well, what else can I say. He writes beautifully for the average person, but there are so many mistakes. The same Baranets, Litovkin, they know and judge everything and everything.
          And if you really want to get an expert opinion on submarine issues, then in St. Petersburg and Moscow there will be a sufficient number of pensioners for commanders, mechanics, and flagship specialists, and they will find how to properly convey information to the average man without revealing too much. It is the same with other branches of the armed forces.
  6. Nemesis
    Nemesis 3 December 2017 11: 45
    +2
    In the same way, the western Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks were praised until they took part in real hostilities.
  7. 2534M
    2534M 3 December 2017 13: 37
    +1
    Quote: Kotischa
    Coefficients - the coefficients drive, but it’s fascinating after all!

    like dope;)
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 4 December 2017 00: 36
      +2
      Quote: 2534M
      like dope;)

      It seems that there was already this publication on the site a week ago ... Something the admins overlooked here, it seems to me ... repeat
  8. Wolka
    Wolka 3 December 2017 17: 08
    0
    very informative, thanks to the author
  9. The comment was deleted.