An analysis of the possible results of submarine combat ("In the first dive", "Los Angeles" is less ") will be incomplete without representatives of the second generation. It is interesting to consider our submarine project 671РТМ. The rest are more inferior in their armament to third generation ships and have almost no chance in modern submarine combat.
The 671РТМ (“Pike”) project, which I conditionally refer to the “2 +” generation, has six torpedo tubes. Of these, two caliber 650 millimeters and four - 533 millimeter. In this situation, we assume that they are predominantly charged with anti-submarine weapons. We take this option: two PLUR "Waterfall" 83P, 3 most common, although the old SET-65 and one self-propelled submarine simulator. Among the remaining 18 spare units, we assume that there are four more PLUR “Waterfall” 83Р and six SET-65.
Consideration will begin with the possible nature of the actions of our submarine against a third-generation submarine - "Los Angeles". The detection range of our submarine "American" is much smaller, due to the higher noise of the "Pike" and not so effective GAK. Therefore, in favorable hydroacoustic conditions, we are talking about 35 – 60 kilometers in the infrasonic range and 15 – 20 kilometers in sound. If the submarine and its target are on opposite sides of the jump layer, the mutual detection range is reduced to three to eight kilometers.
We take three options for the conditions of occurrence of the battle of our submarine with "Los Angeles". The first one is detection in the infrasonic range at a distance requiring convergence to reach the “sound” contact. The second - “American” is heard, but it is outside the zone of effective use of our torpedo weapons. The third option is the sudden detection of an enemy submarine at a short distance.
In the first version, our submarine is likely to be detected with a high anticipation by “Los Angeles”. Nevertheless, the chances that the enemy will be identified in the infrasound channel of the GAK before its entry into the salvo position are quite substantial. Although the likelihood that the project 671РТМ will find "Los Angeles" at a distance exceeding the effective range of torpedoes Mk-48, is extremely small. Most likely, “Los Angeles” will take a position for a volley at a distance, ensuring the effective use of its weapon (18 – 20 km), while remaining unnoticed. But the fact of the shot and the movement of torpedoes from such a distance will be revealed by the SJC of the 671РТМ project. Our submarine, having a time reserve of 10 – 12 minutes, will use the active path GAK, which will make it possible to recognize the attacking submarine and the simulators used by it with a relatively high probability. According to this data, she will be able to apply her PLUR and GAP facilities. Under such conditions, taking into account hydroacoustic interference, the probability of hitting Los Angeles by one PLUR can be estimated at 0,15 – 0,25, and by two - respectively 0,28 – 0,48. The enemy will be forced to maneuver, evading PLUR, apply the means of active hydroacoustic suppression. As a result, the torpedo telecontrol will likely be disrupted. The probability of the destruction of our submarine is 0,4 – 0,5.
Further, the contact may be lost by both sides in connection with the use by the adversary of means of the gap and intensive maneuvering. Therefore, the "duelists" will find out the results of the battle, and if the target is not destroyed, a new exchange of blows will follow. Further rapprochement will put in the best position the "American" with its more effective torpedo weapon.
In the second version, “Los Angeles” will be dialed by our submarine at a distance equal to or less than the most effective range of its torpedoes - 12 – 15 kilometers. This means that the enemy will secretly take his position and use the weapon, remaining undetected until the moment of salvo. Nevertheless, the relatively long time of the torpedoes (8 – 10 minutes) will allow the “Pike” to use PLUR. If the enemy succeeds in moving closer to a still smaller distance, having entered the dead zone of our missiles, which is about seven to eight kilometers, it remains to use three ETS-65 according to the direction finding and the active path of the GAK. Shooting in such conditions and from such a distance does not ensure effective destruction. Its probability, taking into account the highly effective means of enemy GAP, will be 0,07 – 0,12.
In the third variant, the target will be detected within the dead zone of the PLUR and it will be necessary to attack with ordinary torpedoes. Moreover, the enemy preempts our submarine in a volley and she will have to respond with an extreme shortage of time - the bill will go on for minutes. With a retaliatory volley from three ETS-65s, taking into account the intensive maneuvering of the enemy and the use of HAP tools, the probability of destroying “Los Angeles” can be estimated approximately the same as for the 971 project: 0,15 – 0,2.
In a battle with a submarine of the second generation or equivalent to it, for example, the English "Trafalgar" or the French "Rubis", our 671РТМ project will not have a significant superiority in the detection range of the enemy. Under favorable hydroacoustic conditions, it will be up to 60 – 80 kilometers in the infrasonic range and 25 – 35 kilometers in sound. With adverse - 40 – 50 and up to 20 – 25 kilometers, respectively. The mutual detection range of boats located on different sides of the jump layer is reduced to four to six kilometers.
If the target is detected at a long distance according to the infrasound channel, the submarine of the project 671РТМ approaches it at the distance of contact with the sound path GAK, after which it maneuvers to determine the location of the target and its movement elements in the passive mode. Upon readiness of the source data, one or two PLURs are fired. The probability of hitting a target with a sudden strike and a short time to use GPA tools can be quite high - 0,4 – 0,5. However, there remains a substantial likelihood that the enemy himself will prevent our boat, will be able to secretly go into the position of a volley and use weapons. During the battle, conditions may arise for the exchange of torpedo attacks, in which case the probability of destroying the enemy should be assessed in 0,6 – 0,7.
The second option differs only in the fact that our submarine detects a target already in the sound channel. As the enemy increases the chances of pre-empting the “Pike” in a salvo, the probability of destroying an “Englishwoman” or “Frenchwoman” is less - 0,4 – 0,5.
In the third variant, the submarine will most likely not have the opportunity to use PLUR. And here the superiority of the enemy in the funds of the gap and the quality of the torpedo weapon can affect.
The analysis of the likely tactics of actions of different submarines allows us to evaluate the possible outcome of the battle. Let's start with the duel of "Los Angeles" and the 971 project in favorable hydrological conditions ("Los Angeles" less "). The main advantage of our submarine is the presence of PLUR, which makes it possible to deliver a preemptive strike. Moreover, favorable hydrological conditions make it possible to realize this advantage to the full: the enemy, being in the zone of destruction of our PLUR, will be forced to approach the Shark for a long time to reach the torpedo salvo with a high probability of being detected and attacked. The superiority of the "American" in the detection range does not give much advantage. Our submarine, although inferior in this parameter, is capable of detecting the enemy before it leaves the salvo position with torpedoes and deliver a preemptive strike. However, "LA" can oppose to our advantage in the firing range the superior quality of the tools GAP. The outcome of the duel can be estimated as follows: the probability of the destruction of "Los Angeles" - 0,5 – 0,6, our project 971 - 0,3 – 0,4.
Under unfavorable conditions, the possibility of the “American” entering the position of the volley increases significantly before the “Shark” finds the enemy and applies the PLUR. In this case, the superiority of our submarine in the range of the weapon is largely leveled, but the superiority of the American Mk-48 torpedoes and GAP vehicles is more noticeable. As a result, the probability of hitting Los Angeles is reduced to 0,3 – 0,35, and our submarine rises to 0,55 – 0,65. The result of the battle when opponents detect each other at a pistol shot distance is uniquely determined by the superiority of the “American” as a torpedo weapon and the tools of the gap: the probability of Los Angeles being killed is 0,2 – 0,3, our 971 is 0,7 – 0,8.
The averaged estimate of the outcome of the Los Angeles battle against the 971 project, taking into account the probability distribution of the options for the hydrological conditions in the proposed operational-critical areas where our submarines can take place against the US, is as follows: 0,35 – 0,55 - the probability of the death of Los Angeles and 0,4 – 0,65 - our 971 project.
Without going into details of the calculation, it can be noted that the outcome of the Los Angeles duel with a second-generation submarine that does not have PLUR, for example, the Chinese 093 Shan project, will be much more sad for the enemy. 0,05 – 0,1 - the probability of the death of “Los Angeles” and 0,85 – 0,9 - project 093.
The submarine battle of the 971 project against the British and French counterparts will proceed under the sign of the overall superiority of our ship in the range of both detection and use of anti-submarine weapons. The only thing that can be recognized is the advantage of these opponents - the means of the gap, which will play their role in mutual detection at a small distance and within the dead zone of our PLUR.
Averaged assessment of the outcome of the battle of Project 971 with a second-generation submarine in the proposed areas of the Northern operational zone fleet: 0,8–0,95 - probability of death of the “Englishwoman” or “Frenchwoman” and 0,1–0,12 - of our project 971
It remains to assess the possible outcome of the battle "Pikes" with a foreign submarine of the second generation - "Trafalgar" or "Rubis". The 671RTM project will not have a decisive superiority in detection range. And the likelihood of the enemy entering the salvo position with torpedo weapons becomes very substantial. The influence on the outcome of the battle of the superiority factor in the means of the gap increases.
In favorable hydrological conditions, our submarine, due to the relatively high probability of detecting a target at a distance exceeding the firing range of torpedoes, will outstrip the enemy and strike PLUR without entering the zone of reach of his weapon. However, in the future, the probability of approaching submarines at a distance where the enemy will be able to reach our torpedoes will significantly increase. The outcome of the duel of the project .671РТМ with a second-generation foreign woman can be as follows: the probability of the death of "Pike" is 0,2 – 0,3, and her opponent is 0,5 – 0,6.
Under unfavorable conditions, the likelihood of submarines moving closer to the effective use of torpedo weapons in the 671РТМ project increases. In this case, the enemy can preempt. But our submarine even under the most adverse conditions will have time to make at least one salvo of PLUR. Having taken measures to evade the attack, she (if he escapes) will begin to maneuver. Similarly, the enemy will act. With this development, the probability of hitting the 671РТМ project rises to 0,35 – 0,5, and Trafalgar or Rubis decreases to 0,4 – 0,5.
If each other is detected at a short distance - within the dead zone of our PLUR - the situation will develop similarly to the battle involving the 971 project. An essential role will be played by the superiority of the enemy in the combat capabilities of the GAP facilities. Given the comparable quality of torpedo weapons, the result can be 0,5 – 0,7 - the probability of the death of our submarine of the project 671РТМ and 0,3 – 0,4 - “Englishwoman” or “Frenchwoman”.
The averaged estimate of the total battlefield of the 671РТМ project with a second-generation foreign submarine: 0,45 – 0,55 is the probability of the death of the enemy submarine, 0,4 – 0,45 is ours.
Such are the estimates of the likely outcome of the battle of various submarines, in which the superiority of Russian and American third-generation submarines is clearly visible. This is not surprising, since such submarines still exist in large numbers only in the Russian and American fleets. The English and French fleets have just begun to adopt the ships of the third (more precisely, “3 +”) generation. China builds nuclear submarines, which, according to their tactical and technical data, primarily in terms of noise and the capabilities of hydroacoustic reconnaissance and surveillance, still belong to the second generation. The same is true in India, where the production of self-developed submarines began. The rest of the countries do not build nuclear submarines. Meanwhile, the fourth and fourth generation nuclear submarines began to enter service with the American and Russian fleets. The United States with its "Virginia" ahead of us - they have already in the ranks of more than a dozen such ships. We with the 885 project are inferior in quantitative terms, but we are ahead in quality. Were it not for 90, we would not have lagged behind the Americans. However, in our design bureaus, works on projects of the fifth generation are already in full swing.