Russian investments for the global market
There is every reason to argue that the global economic crisis has hit not only the exchanges, mortgage offices and banks. As can be seen from the reports of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the global defense industry has suffered. Throughout the two thousand years, the average annual growth of this sector was about ten percent. But over the year 2009 sales growth weapons decreased to 8%, and in 2010, this figure was only one percent. Statistics for last year, the Swedish analysts have not yet submitted. It is unlikely that in just one year the world arms market was able to return to the same pace. Moreover, it may take more than a year or two to restore past growth rates.
While SIPRI calculates the 2011 performance of the year, we can consider the numbers that are already in the public domain. So, Russia for the past year has sold 13,2 weapons of a billion US dollars. This is a quarter more than what was sold in 2010. Thus, at the moment, the Russian defense industry in terms of sales is second only to the US - last year, US exports of weapons cost buyers in 35 billions. However, American exports for several years now, if I may say so, have been marking time and hardly noticeable changes in monetary terms. It turns out that in the next couple of years Russia will definitely be among the main “engines” of arms sales. But not only our country is capable of showing significant growth rates. For example, last year's French defense exports also grew by a quarter, only it is significantly less than the Russian - “total” 6,5 billion euros.
It should be noted that, with all its possibilities, the Fifth Republic is unlikely to be able to take away at least part of the contracts from Russia. The fact is that over the past year the French have expanded the list of their customers with just three countries - India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In turn, our country, represented by Rosoboronexport, last year began to cooperate with Guatemala, Germany, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mali, Uruguay and several other countries. So, despite the loss of possible Libyan contracts, our exports continue to grow. However, if M. Gaddafi had not tried in his time to be cunning and flirting with third countries, his country also contributed to the growth of Russian exports. Now, questions of cooperation with Syria may be called into question, the main thing is for Damascus to have enough strength to withstand military and international problems.
One could simply rejoice at the achievements, however, the "dizziness from success" still did not bring anyone to good. Perhaps the current growth will be enough to maintain positions for several years, but after this period no end of the world is foreseen and it is necessary to create an allotment for the future right now. Especially for this, in the next ten years, in accordance with the federal target program for the development of the defense industry complex, three trillion rubles will be allocated for the needs of the latter. Recently, at the mention of such huge sums immediately emerges the topic of so-called cuts. Indeed, a certain number of corrupt officials in the state apparatus and industrial enterprises are present, and each of them can inflict tangible damage to the state’s defense capability. Deputy Prime Minister D. Rogozin spoke out simply and harshly on this matter. According to him, a corrupt official in the defense industry is a direct accomplice of a potential adversary. Of course, he will not be charged with treason, but the criminal prosecution will go to the upper limit provided by the criminal code. Thus, if properly filed, a dishonest official or merchant will have to think several times whether to cheat with financial flows or take a bribe.
The words “with due process” are not only the cornerstone of the fight against financial violations and crimes. Last year there were a lot of problems with the state defense order, but somehow they coped with them and carried out an analysis. Again, the main conclusion was the need for “proper setting”. In particular, this resulted in the following: poor planning with regard to the capabilities of enterprises, incorrect plans for price changes, poor coordination of relations between the customer and the performer, between individual performers, etc. Thus, much more attention needs to be paid to planning and interaction, otherwise even record-breaking 700 billions of rubles allocated for the state defense order this year may not lead to the desired result. It should be noted separately that improper use of funds and similar problems can have a bad impact not only on the actual armed forces. The domestic defense industry includes more than 1300 enterprises employing more than two million people. That is, the inefficient construction of the defense structure will have negative consequences for several million workers and their families. Too big a price for mistakes.
However, even the available forces and means allow to systematically increase the output of military products. As a result, in the three years since the beginning of the global crisis, the production of our defense industry has grown one and a half times. Moreover, new products were not only in the Russian armed forces, but also for export. As already mentioned, only in 2011, its growth amounted to 26%, and if we take a longer period, starting from 2000, the growth of military exports reaches 220%. The number of foreign countries buying Russian weapons has almost tripled to seventy. The main reason for this success is a number of experts, and with them high-ranking Russian officials see the successful combination of price and quality. If we divide weapons into "business class" and "economy class", then domestic products are more consistent with the second. But weapons and military equipment are among those things that are usually purchased in large quantities, which displays the price parameter in the number of the most important when choosing. At the same time, our defense complex makes a relatively cheap weapon of the "mass" class. With specialized systems for special forces, our situation is much worse. This direction is one of those on the development of which should be focused in the very near future. Yes, such systems are unlikely to be as successful and massive as Kalashnikov assault rifles, but their niche implies completely different usage characteristics.
In general, the range of products for their quality is very heterogeneous. In the area of rocket technology, including anti-aircraft, or space forces, our defense industry is ahead of the rest. But in a number of other areas there is not only parity, but also a significant lag. As an example of this, one can cite the long-known problems with the radio electronic element base. Moreover, sometimes the leading world countries have something that we do not yet have. The most recent example of this is the recently created US cyber command, designed to combat high-tech threats. In those areas where we are in the lead, I must say, not everything is beautiful and rosy either. For example, the Bulava rocket has been created for nearly fifteen years, and all disputes and even scandals around it will long be remembered. However, one should not forget that during these 15 years two economic crises happened at once: the default of 1998 and the global crisis of 2008-09. It is clear that such “surprises” never have a positive effect on the creation of new equipment or the production already done. But the "Mace" is brought to mind and will soon be adopted. And still there are a lot of problems, for example, in space. The difficult situation of the nineties, crises, etc. led to a serious lag in electronics, and our armed forces are in need of modern space technology. It is possible to purchase components, but there is a certain risk. About three-quarters of the reliability of the spacecraft "keeps" on its electronic part. It is hardly worth trusting such an important area of imported products, and this is not only a matter of national prestige. If necessary, the component manufacturer can make a so-called. “Bookmarks” and in case of deterioration of relations with us, bring them into action, which will lead to disruption of the functioning of the spacecraft. It turns out that the development of electronics should also become one of the priorities when investing in the defense industry.
Finally, people. No matter how good the technique, without a man it costs nothing. The financial issues of military allowances are already being resolved, now defense industry workers are in line. Over the next few years, in the course of the target program for the development of the defense industrial complex, the average salary in the industry should be reduced to a size comparable with payments to the military. Also, employees of defense enterprises with state support will build housing, funding will be allocated for the training of scientists, engineers, etc. Now in the leadership of the country there is an opinion that wages in the defense industry, and even more so at its main enterprises, should be brought to the level at which it will be comparable to wages in foreign companies. Thanks to this, according to supporters of this opinion, it will be possible to significantly reduce the so-called. brain drain, and then even completely get rid of it.
Three Trillion investments in the development of the Russian defense industry in fact are not only an investment in the defense industry itself. This money, if they are properly utilized, will be “caught by the fragments” by a large number of people, the state’s defense capability, and, if we take even larger scales, the world economy. The second place in the rating of arms and military equipment sellers cannot but affect the development of this market. And if the share of our deliveries continues to grow in the future, then the money invested will be returned earlier and can be invested again. The main thing is that the current three trillions should be invested wisely and benefited, and this can be very difficult.
While SIPRI calculates the 2011 performance of the year, we can consider the numbers that are already in the public domain. So, Russia for the past year has sold 13,2 weapons of a billion US dollars. This is a quarter more than what was sold in 2010. Thus, at the moment, the Russian defense industry in terms of sales is second only to the US - last year, US exports of weapons cost buyers in 35 billions. However, American exports for several years now, if I may say so, have been marking time and hardly noticeable changes in monetary terms. It turns out that in the next couple of years Russia will definitely be among the main “engines” of arms sales. But not only our country is capable of showing significant growth rates. For example, last year's French defense exports also grew by a quarter, only it is significantly less than the Russian - “total” 6,5 billion euros.
It should be noted that, with all its possibilities, the Fifth Republic is unlikely to be able to take away at least part of the contracts from Russia. The fact is that over the past year the French have expanded the list of their customers with just three countries - India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In turn, our country, represented by Rosoboronexport, last year began to cooperate with Guatemala, Germany, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mali, Uruguay and several other countries. So, despite the loss of possible Libyan contracts, our exports continue to grow. However, if M. Gaddafi had not tried in his time to be cunning and flirting with third countries, his country also contributed to the growth of Russian exports. Now, questions of cooperation with Syria may be called into question, the main thing is for Damascus to have enough strength to withstand military and international problems.
One could simply rejoice at the achievements, however, the "dizziness from success" still did not bring anyone to good. Perhaps the current growth will be enough to maintain positions for several years, but after this period no end of the world is foreseen and it is necessary to create an allotment for the future right now. Especially for this, in the next ten years, in accordance with the federal target program for the development of the defense industry complex, three trillion rubles will be allocated for the needs of the latter. Recently, at the mention of such huge sums immediately emerges the topic of so-called cuts. Indeed, a certain number of corrupt officials in the state apparatus and industrial enterprises are present, and each of them can inflict tangible damage to the state’s defense capability. Deputy Prime Minister D. Rogozin spoke out simply and harshly on this matter. According to him, a corrupt official in the defense industry is a direct accomplice of a potential adversary. Of course, he will not be charged with treason, but the criminal prosecution will go to the upper limit provided by the criminal code. Thus, if properly filed, a dishonest official or merchant will have to think several times whether to cheat with financial flows or take a bribe.
The words “with due process” are not only the cornerstone of the fight against financial violations and crimes. Last year there were a lot of problems with the state defense order, but somehow they coped with them and carried out an analysis. Again, the main conclusion was the need for “proper setting”. In particular, this resulted in the following: poor planning with regard to the capabilities of enterprises, incorrect plans for price changes, poor coordination of relations between the customer and the performer, between individual performers, etc. Thus, much more attention needs to be paid to planning and interaction, otherwise even record-breaking 700 billions of rubles allocated for the state defense order this year may not lead to the desired result. It should be noted separately that improper use of funds and similar problems can have a bad impact not only on the actual armed forces. The domestic defense industry includes more than 1300 enterprises employing more than two million people. That is, the inefficient construction of the defense structure will have negative consequences for several million workers and their families. Too big a price for mistakes.
However, even the available forces and means allow to systematically increase the output of military products. As a result, in the three years since the beginning of the global crisis, the production of our defense industry has grown one and a half times. Moreover, new products were not only in the Russian armed forces, but also for export. As already mentioned, only in 2011, its growth amounted to 26%, and if we take a longer period, starting from 2000, the growth of military exports reaches 220%. The number of foreign countries buying Russian weapons has almost tripled to seventy. The main reason for this success is a number of experts, and with them high-ranking Russian officials see the successful combination of price and quality. If we divide weapons into "business class" and "economy class", then domestic products are more consistent with the second. But weapons and military equipment are among those things that are usually purchased in large quantities, which displays the price parameter in the number of the most important when choosing. At the same time, our defense complex makes a relatively cheap weapon of the "mass" class. With specialized systems for special forces, our situation is much worse. This direction is one of those on the development of which should be focused in the very near future. Yes, such systems are unlikely to be as successful and massive as Kalashnikov assault rifles, but their niche implies completely different usage characteristics.
In general, the range of products for their quality is very heterogeneous. In the area of rocket technology, including anti-aircraft, or space forces, our defense industry is ahead of the rest. But in a number of other areas there is not only parity, but also a significant lag. As an example of this, one can cite the long-known problems with the radio electronic element base. Moreover, sometimes the leading world countries have something that we do not yet have. The most recent example of this is the recently created US cyber command, designed to combat high-tech threats. In those areas where we are in the lead, I must say, not everything is beautiful and rosy either. For example, the Bulava rocket has been created for nearly fifteen years, and all disputes and even scandals around it will long be remembered. However, one should not forget that during these 15 years two economic crises happened at once: the default of 1998 and the global crisis of 2008-09. It is clear that such “surprises” never have a positive effect on the creation of new equipment or the production already done. But the "Mace" is brought to mind and will soon be adopted. And still there are a lot of problems, for example, in space. The difficult situation of the nineties, crises, etc. led to a serious lag in electronics, and our armed forces are in need of modern space technology. It is possible to purchase components, but there is a certain risk. About three-quarters of the reliability of the spacecraft "keeps" on its electronic part. It is hardly worth trusting such an important area of imported products, and this is not only a matter of national prestige. If necessary, the component manufacturer can make a so-called. “Bookmarks” and in case of deterioration of relations with us, bring them into action, which will lead to disruption of the functioning of the spacecraft. It turns out that the development of electronics should also become one of the priorities when investing in the defense industry.
Finally, people. No matter how good the technique, without a man it costs nothing. The financial issues of military allowances are already being resolved, now defense industry workers are in line. Over the next few years, in the course of the target program for the development of the defense industrial complex, the average salary in the industry should be reduced to a size comparable with payments to the military. Also, employees of defense enterprises with state support will build housing, funding will be allocated for the training of scientists, engineers, etc. Now in the leadership of the country there is an opinion that wages in the defense industry, and even more so at its main enterprises, should be brought to the level at which it will be comparable to wages in foreign companies. Thanks to this, according to supporters of this opinion, it will be possible to significantly reduce the so-called. brain drain, and then even completely get rid of it.
Three Trillion investments in the development of the Russian defense industry in fact are not only an investment in the defense industry itself. This money, if they are properly utilized, will be “caught by the fragments” by a large number of people, the state’s defense capability, and, if we take even larger scales, the world economy. The second place in the rating of arms and military equipment sellers cannot but affect the development of this market. And if the share of our deliveries continues to grow in the future, then the money invested will be returned earlier and can be invested again. The main thing is that the current three trillions should be invested wisely and benefited, and this can be very difficult.
Information