“The social revolution, in its most extreme manifestations, is inevitable with us”
In his note, Durnovo accurately noted that Russia and Germany do not have fundamental contradictions: “The vital interests of Russia and Germany nowhere collide and provide a complete basis for the peaceful coexistence of these two states.” Germany’s interests were to expand their colonies and spheres of influence in the world in order to gain new markets and stocks of raw materials. That is, first of all, the interests of Germany faced the interests of Britain and France, which had huge colonial empires. Germany received the necessary resources from peacefully, through trade, there was no need to fight.
It is clear that in Germany there were hotheads who dreamed of colonizing the Baltic states, about the “living space” in the East. However, then they were in the minority. These ideas were developed only during the war, when it became necessary to justify a heavy war.
The Russian Empire did not need to expand its territory, especially in densely populated Europe. The seizure of the Polish lands belonging to the German Empire only intensified the Polish problem in Russia itself. A similar situation was with respect to Galicia belonging to the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Galicia was part of ancient Russia. However, at this time, this area lost its “living connection” with Russia. Russia could teach large communities of Poles, Jews and Ukrainianized Uniates. As noted by Durnovo: “The so-called Ukrainian or Mazepa movement is not scary now, but we should not let it grow, increasing the number of restless Ukrainian elements, since in this movement there is an undeniable embryo of extremely dangerous Little Russian separatism, under favorable conditions that can reach completely unexpected sizes ".
For a long time, the main goal of our diplomacy was to open the straits from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. For this it was necessary to defeat Turkey and take the straits from it. However, for this it was not necessary to fight with Germany. Our main enemy, which prevented Russia from solving the problem of the straits, was England. If desired, Russia could take the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles in 1878, but retreated under pressure from the British. Germany did not have strong contradictions with Russia in the Middle East. As you know, Bismarck also had a catch phrase that for Germany the Balkan question was not worth the bones of one Pomeranian grenadier. Therefore, Durnovo noted: "there is every reason to expect that the Germans would be easier than the British, would go to provide us with straits, in the fate of which they had little interest and at the cost of which our union would gladly buy."
The note by Durnovo stated that in the field of economic interests, Russian interests did not contradict German interests. It was possible to establish mutually beneficial trade relations with Germany without war. At the same time, the military defeat of the German Empire was in the economic interests of England, and in part, of France, and not of Russia. England destroyed a competitor who oppressed it in world markets, while maintaining its economic well-being and world leadership. And Russia, in the face of a devastated Germany, was losing a consumer market that is valuable to us and a source of technology, equipment necessary for the industrialization of the Russian state. “It is profitable for England to kill the German maritime trade and industry of Germany, turning it into a poor, if possible, agricultural country. It is to our advantage that Germany develops its maritime trade and the industry it serves in order to supply the remotest world markets and at the same time open up the domestic market to the products of our agriculture to supply its numerous working population. ”
The peaceful relocation of the Germans to Russia (colonization), as it was in the past, does not pose a threat to Russia. It is known that the Germans in Russia are fasting down, and so-called. “Russian Germans” are quite loyal subjects who are engaged in industrial and rural affairs and crafts. Among the Russian Germans there were many people who brought their new homeland great benefits in the field of economic development or in military affairs and in public service. The “German dominance” in the field of our economic life did not have such a danger as the penetration of French or English capital.
First, Russia was too poor in both capital and industrial enterprise, so that it could do without a wide inflow of foreign capital. And some dependence on one or another foreign capital was inevitable until Russia implemented industrialization and created national capital, which would make it possible to abandon foreign capital and foreign entrepreneurial activity.
Secondly, “German capital is more profitable for us than any other.” This capital is the cheapest of all, as content with the smallest percentage of entrepreneurial profits. Germans go to those areas that bring a relatively small income. Germans more often leave profits in Russia itself, continuing the development of production - “a greater number of Russian rubles remain in Russia.” The British and the French transfer all profits to themselves, abroad. In addition, unlike the British or French, German capitalists for the most part, together with their capital, move to Russia themselves. Therefore, in Russia there are many German industrialists, compared with the British and French. It is also worth noting that it was possible to eliminate foreign, including German, dominance in the Russian economic life without any war. It was necessary only to start accelerated industrialization, to rely on domestic sources.
Even the victory over Germany did not promise the Russian empire great economic benefits. Harm was more than good. Russia was losing its German market. The war led to huge expenses, that is, financial dependence on France and England increased even more. And utterly ruined Germany could not recover our costs. Our share would be, in comparison with the military costs, crumbs. The unfortunate outcome of the war threatened the collapse of the economy of the empire. Durnovo prophetically remarked: "The financial and economic consequences of a defeat are not amenable to accounting, nor even to foresight, and no doubt will be reflected in the complete collapse of our entire national economy. So in reality it will happen.
Durnovo also noted that Britain and France, who triumphed in Germany, undoubtedly exploited the economic difficulties and industrial and technological weakness of Russia. After the collapse of the German Empire, Russia will no longer be needed by the "allies." The Russian Empire will have to repay military loans: “we will fall into the same financial economic bondage to our creditors, compared to which our present dependence on German capital will seem ideal.”
However, the economic perspectives opening up as a result of the alliance with Britain and the war with Germany recede into the background before the political consequences of the great European war. Russia and Germany were in Europe "representatives of a conservative principle in the civilized world, the opposite of the democratic one, embodied by England and, to a much lesser extent, France. " Thus, the struggle of Russia and Germany led "to the weakening of the world conservative principle, the only reliable stronghold of which are the two great powers mentioned." The great war in Europe was deadly both for Russia and for Germany, since "in the defeated country a social revolution will inevitably break out, which, by the force of things, will spread to the victor country".
"Of course, Russia is a particularly fertile ground for social upheavals, where the masses of the people undoubtedly profess the principles of unconscious socialism. Despite the opposition of Russian society, just as unconscious as the socialism of the broad sections of the population, the political revolution in Russia is impossible, and every revolutionary movement will inevitably degenerate socialist. There is no one behind our opposition, it has no support among the people who do not see any difference between a government official and an intellectual. The Russian commoner, the peasant and the worker are equally not looking for political rights, both unnecessary and incomprehensible.
The peasant dreams of granting him a foreign land, the worker - of transferring to him all the capital and profits of the manufacturer, and beyond that their desires do not go. And it is worth only throwing these slogans widely into the population, as soon as the government power is free to allow agitation in this direction - Russia will undoubtedly be plunged into anarchy that it experienced during the memorable period of 1905 - 1906 distemper. The war with Germany will create extremely favorable conditions for such agitation. As already noted, this war is fraught with great difficulties for us and cannot be a triumphal march to Berlin. Inevitable and military setbacks, hopefully partial ones, one or the other shortcomings in our supplies will also be inevitable. With the exceptional nervousness of our society, these circumstances will be given exaggerated importance, and with the opposition of this society, everything will be blamed on the government. ” Thus, Peter Nikolaevich predicted everything that will happen during the First World War.
The Russian statesman further notes that it is good if this government does not surrender and “firmly declares that during the war no criticism of state power is permissible and will resolutely stop all opposition actions”. Strong power could have suppressed the speech of the February liberals, since they had no support among the people. The liberal-bourgeois opposition “does not represent any real power. The Russian opposition is completely intelligent, and this is its weakness, since there is a deep abyss of mutual misunderstanding and mistrust between the intelligentsia and the people. ” But in the worst case (as it will in reality), the government will make concessions and "try to enter into an agreement with the opposition." This will lead to the destabilization of the empire, anarchy, since the feminists cannot calm the people down. The peasants and workers have no confidence in the Octobrist landowners and the cadet factory workers who sit in the Duma.
According to Durnovo, “if the war ends victoriously, the pacification of the socialist movement in the end will not present insurmountable difficulties.” Agrarian unrest and labor unrest can be quenched by providing some indulgence at the same time. A completely different situation would be if Russia were defeated, then "The social revolution, in its most extreme manifestations, is inevitable here."
Consequences of the defeat in the war Durnovo sees as follows: "... begin with the fact that all the failures will be attributed to the government. A fierce campaign against him will begin in the legislative institutions, as a result of which revolutionary appearances will begin in the country. The latter will be immediately launched socialist slogans, the only ones that can lift and group the general population, first black redistribution, and then we are also the general section of all values and assets. The defeated army, which, moreover, lost its most reliable cadre of personnel during the war, covered in the most part by the spontaneously common peasant desire for land, would be too demoralized to serve as a bulwark of law and order. Legislative institutions and opposition-intelligent parties deprived of real authority in the eyes of the people will not be able to contain dispersed popular waves, they also raised, and Russia will be plunged into hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which is not even predictable. "
The forecast of Durnovo for Germany itself in case of its defeat looks no less gloomy: “Germany, in case of defeat, will have to face no less social upheavals. An unsuccessful war will have a hard effect on the population too, so that its consequences do not cause the destructive aspirations deeply hidden now to surface. ... With the defeat of Germany, it will lose world markets and maritime trade, for the goal of the war, - on the part of its real instigator of England - is the destruction of German competition. With the achievement of this, deprived not only increased, but also all wages, suffered during the war, and, naturally, the embittered working masses will become the susceptible ground for anti-agrarian, and then the antisocial propaganda of the socialist parties.
In turn, these latter, given the offended patriotic feeling and the national irritation that has accumulated as a result of the war that was lost, against the deceived hopes of the population of militarism and the feudal-burgher system, are turning away from the path of a peaceful revolution, on which they have so steadfastly held on to way. Will play its role, especially in the case of socialist agrarian actions in neighboring Russia, and the landless class of agricultural farm laborers, numerous in Germany. Regardless of this, the separatist aspirations that now lurk in southern Germany will be revived, Bavaria’s concealed hostility towards Prussia’s dominion will manifest itself in its entirety, in a word, a situation that is not much inferior to Russia in its tensions. ”
Thus, Durnovo predicted that a rapprochement with England would not promise any benefits to Russia, and the pro-British orientation of Russian diplomacy is inherently deeply flawed and will eventually lead to the Romanov empire’s catastrophe. Russia in the European war will play the role of "anti-German ram", which will lead to devastating consequences in the financial, industrial and socio-political sphere. Defeat in the war will make the revolution in Russia inevitable. And the seizure of power by liberal-bourgeois circles (the Februaryists) will only increase the chaos and collapse, since the pro-Western liberal-bourgeois circles and intellectuals have nothing in common with the masses who will support the slogan of social justice.
Most The best option for Russia in foreign policy is a close rapprochement with Germany. France and Japan will be attracted to this alliance sooner or later (the latter needs Russia to fight with America in the Pacific). “Such a political combination devoid of any aggressiveness with respect to other states for many years will ensure the peaceful coexistence of cultural nations threatened not by Germany’s belligerent designs, as British diplomacy tries to prove,” but by England (and the USA) striving for global domination.
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