"The role of the ram penetrating the thickest German defense, we will get ..."
Russian society on the eve of 1917, was already fully prepared for the huge explosion. However, the big bang needed a detonator, a detonator. To blow up Russia, it was necessary to reveal all the deep-seated contradictions of the Romanov empire. Disrupt the economic development of the country, exacerbate more than the usual calamity of ordinary people, destabilize national suburbs and push the tip of the empire to a conspiracy. In the role of such a detonator made the First World War!
An example has already been - the Japanese campaign. When the war with Japan allowed to initiate the so-called. The first Russian revolution, to raise to the struggle against autocracy the most diverse forces: from liberals to social revolutionaries, anarchists and nationalists. At the same time, a significant part of society was indifferent or even hostile to war with Japan, did not understand its goals. For the majority of the people, Zheltorossiya, like the adventures in Korea and China, did not mean anything. So in the First World War for the peasant majority of Russia the straits (Bosphorus and Dardanelles) will mean nothing.
However, the war with Japan, in fact, was a rehearsal for the demolition of the Russian Empire. The war was at a remote theater, distracted only part of the Russian army and could not shake the empire so that cause its collapse. Need more powerful conflict. He became the war with Germany. To go to war with a powerful, industrially developed enemy, with an excellent army and military-industrial complex was for Russia of that time suicide. Pyotr Arkadyevich Stolypin understood this perfectly well, and many other reasonable people, especially many of them, were among the right-wing traditionalists (their liberals were recorded as “Black Hundreds”). Even the Russian peasant Grigory Rasputin understood this (no wonder his British intelligence was destroyed by the hands of the degenerated Russian aristocrats).
Russia had to fight for the interests of Britain and France, for their loans. There were no fundamental contradictions between Germany and Russia. Only an insignificant part of the German elite demanded a campaign to the East to expand the “living space”. Only after the start of the war, these slogans in Germany will become a program to justify a war with Russia. The main opponents of Germany were France and England. France, the Germans wanted to defeat, to once and for all show who is the master in Europe. But Britain interfered with the global advancement of German economic interests. That is, it was a conflict within the Western world. Russia did not have to climb into it. It was enough to find a common language with Germany, get a quiet rear in Western Europe and go about their business. It is obvious that Germany even having broken the union of England and France (which was doubtful, since, behind them stood the USA), could not establish world domination. The Germans did not have the opportunity to completely swallow and destroy France and England, and especially the United States. In the western project there were two hostile blocs: Germanic (Germany and Austria-Hungary) and Romano-Anglo-Saxon (France, England and the USA). Italy would maneuver between them.
Russia, at this time, made a breakthrough in education and science (eliminating illiteracy, general primary, and then secondary education), start accelerated industrialization, develop agriculture, strengthen defense in the most dangerous areas, pull new railroads, highway, develop North , Siberia, the Far East, Turkestan, go with the goods to the East, etc.
With Germany, Russia could live in the world and cooperate with each other mutually (as with Japan). However, the Germans and the Russians strained them, as before the Japanese and Russians. This is well written in the interesting books of Sergey Kremlev: “Russia and Germany: Bleed! From Versailles Wilhelm to Versailles Wilson. A new look at the old war "; “Russia and Germany: together or apart? USSR Stalin and Hitler's Reich "; "Russia and Germany: the path to the pact"; "Russia and Japan: Bleed!"
In fact, Petersburg was held. The Anglophilian and Francopheic parts of the ruling elite of the empire set up the people and the country. The pro-Western "elite" disrupted all attempts at the natural convergence of Germans and Russians. She torpedoed the Björk Treaty, which was signed during the meeting of Emperor Nicholas II with the German Emperor Wilhelm II in July 1905, near the Baltic island of Björké, on board the imperial yacht Polaris. Emperor Nicholas II could save the empire from great misfortune. But the king's initiative met with resistance from Russian dignitaries and the Foreign Ministry. VN Lamzdorf and S. Yu. Witte managed to convince the emperor of the need to terminate the agreement. The emperor expressed weakness and succumbed to this pressure in the interests of England and France. In return, Russia was finally dragged into the Anglo-French military bloc, the Entente, and tied with large loans.
The danger of war with Germany to the tsar was reported not only to P. Stolypin. Former Minister of the Interior and Member of the State Council Pyotr Nikolayevich Durnovo shortly before World War I warned Nicholas II against speaking out against Germany, believing that this war would be disastrous for the monarchy. This is reflected in the famous “Note of Durnovo” of February 1914. Durnovo accurately predicted the course of the World War, indicating that Russia would get the main burden of the war and “the role of a battering ram breaking through the very thickness of the German defense”, just as accurately noting “the insufficiency of our military reserves” (which gave rise to the “shell and gun hunger” of 1914-1915. ) Durnovo noted that in the event of defeat, Russia would fall into "hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which is difficult to foresee." No wonder in historical Durnovo’s note to journalism is called “prophetic”: it is believed that all the main predictions of the former minister came true.
P.N. Durnovo (1845 — 1915)
Durnovo noted: “The central factor in the period of world history that we are experiencing is the rivalry between England and Germany. This rivalry must inevitably lead to an armed struggle between them, the outcome of which, in all probability, will be fatal for the defeated side. The interests of these two states are too incompatible ... ” It was a long-standing clash of the "continent" and the "sea". The power of Britain was based "on dominion over the seas, world trade and countless colonies." And Germany defied this power, claiming a place in the first violin in a concert of the Western powers. The Germans quickly developed the fleet, the British tried to maintain superiority at sea. German goods everywhere crowded the British, undermining the economic prosperity of England. However, given the power of German industry, sooner or later the Germans would have taken up this rivalry.
Thus, between England and Germany, the struggle is inevitable not for life, but for death. However, neither England nor Germany could deal a killing blow to each other. The Germans could try to cause an uprising in Ireland, Persia, India, economically press the British in Latin America. The German fleet, especially underwater, could by blockade create some economic difficulties for the English metropolis. But the powerful British fleet interfered with the landing of the German army in England and could block the sea communications of the Second Reich and capture the German colonies. With the greatest luck, the British could have drowned the German fleet in a decisive battle. But this forced Germany to the world was impossible. England, as it has already been in history more than once, requires “cannon fodder”.
For the British on the continent were to fight the French and Russian. France, after the war 1870-1871, had strong contradictions with Germany, dreamed of revenge. In addition, France and Germany (Prussia) were traditional rivals in Europe. For France, Russia's support was of paramount importance, diverting significant forces of the German army on the Russian (Eastern) front. Germany could not by all means pounce on France. The British army strengthened the French. The English and French fleets together could carry out a naval blockade of Europe. The French and British economies, the colonial empires had more resources than the powers of Central Europe.
Russia was the traditional opponent of the Anglo-Saxons. It was England and the United States that pushed Japan into the war with the Russian Empire. As Durnovo rightly noted: “In essence, Russia and Japan are created to live in peace, since they have absolutely nothing to divide. All the tasks of Russia in the Far East, correctly understood, are completely compatible with the interests of Japan. ... Too wide scope of the fantasies of overblown executors who had no basis for the real interests of the state - on the one hand, excessive nervousness and impressionability of Japan, which mistakenly took these fantasies for a consistently carried out plan, on the other hand, caused a clash that more skillful diplomacy could have avoided ". Thus, the mistakes of St. Petersburg and the skillful policy of England led to a clash between Russia and Japan. In reality, the world and close cooperation between Japan and Russia in the Far East is a completely natural process.
In other regions, Russia and England were rivals. Our interests clashed in Tibet, Persia, Turkey and the Balkans. The British were afraid of the penetration of Russians into India, although Petersburg did not show interest in South Asia. Moreover, the rapprochement between Russia and Britain sharply aggravated relations with Germany. The status quo was broken. Germany was forced to aggravate, while it was possible to turn the tide in their favor.
As Durnovo wrote: “It cost, however, we set out on the path of close rapprochement with England, as immediately followed the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which could be so easily and painlessly implemented in 1905 or 1906, then the Albanian question arose and a combination with Prince Weed. Russian diplomacy tried to respond to the Austrian intrigues with the formation of the Balkan Union, but this combination, as one would expect, turned out to be completely ephemeral. In theory, directed against Austria, she immediately turned against Turkey and fell apart on the division of captured from this last prey. As a result, there was only the final attachment of Turkey to Germany, in which, not without reason, she sees her only patron. Indeed, the Russian-English rapprochement, obviously, for Turkey is tantamount to England abandoning its traditional closure policy for us the Dardanelles, and education, under the auspices of Russia, of the Balkan Union was a direct threat to the continued existence of Turkey as a European state. ” As a result, the Anglo-Russian rapprochement did not bring anything useful for us, intensified Austria’s actions in the Balkans, increased discord among the Balkan states, led Turkey into the German bloc and in the future led to war with Germany.
Durnovo correctly determined that the Ottoman Empire would side with Germany. Italy will seek to expand its territory, due to political and economic interests, and will not speak for Germany. And the expansion of the land and the sphere of influence of Italy can be made only at the expense of Austria-Hungary and Turkey. Therefore, “the possibility of Italy acting on the side of the anti-German coalition, if the lot of the war was inclined in its favor, in the form of securing the most favorable conditions for participating in the subsequent division, is not excluded.” In this, Italy’s position is similar to Romania. Bucharest will remain neutral “until the scales of happiness lean on one side or the other.” Then Romania, guided by political egoism, will join the winners in order to be rewarded either at the expense of Russia or at the expense of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Serbia and Montenegro will undoubtedly oppose Austria. Bulgaria will oppose Serbia, that is, on the side of the German bloc. "Greece, in all likelihood, will remain neutral or take the side opposing Turkey, but only when the outcome is more or less predetermined." Indeed, Greece entered the First World War on the side of the Entente 2 July 1917 of the year, before that it remained neutral. America and Japan will be hostile to Germany. And the weakening of Russia, its diversion to the West from the East, meets Japanese and American interests. Moreover, the possibility of the United States and Japan opposing Germany, with the aim of seizing the “badly lying German colonies,” is not excluded.
Further Durnovo noted: ““ Under such conditions, the struggle against Germany presents enormous difficulties for us and will require innumerable victims. The war will not take the enemy by surprise, and the degree of his readiness will probably exceed our most exaggerated expectations. ” At the same time, Germany itself does not strive for war, since it can achieve its goals peacefully. But "Germany will not retreat before the war and, of course, will even try to call it, choosing the most advantageous moment for itself."
Durnovo accurately indicated that The main burden of the war will undoubtedly fall on Russia, since “England is hardly capable of accepting wide participation in the continental war, and France, poor in human material, with the enormous losses that will accompany the war under modern conditions of military equipment, is likely to adhere to strictly defensive tactics. The role of the battering ram, penetrating the thickest German defense, we will get and meanwhile, how many factors will be against us and how much we will have to spend on them both effort and attention. ”
Among the unfavorable factors that will be intensified during the war, the Russian statesman noted: “An explosion of hostility against us in Persia, the possible unrest among Muslims in the Caucasus and Turkestan, the possibility of speaking out against us is not excluded, in connection with the latter, Afghanistan, finally very unpleasant complications should be foreseen in Poland and Finland. ” ... “As for Poland, we should expect that we will not be able to hold it in our hands during the war. And now, when she finds herself in the grip of the opponents, they will undoubtedly make an attempt to cause an uprising, in substance, for us, and not very dangerous, but which will still have to be taken into account among the factors unfavorable to us, especially since the influence of our allies to encourage us to take such steps in the field of our relations with Poland, which are more dangerous for us than any open uprising. ” So in reality will happen. In Turkestan there will be an unpleasant uprising. Poland against us is first used by Germany and Austria-Hungary, and then our "allies" in the Entente. Finland will again be a stronghold of the revolution. The Caucasus during the war will be destabilized and after the revolution there will be an explosion on the basis of nationalism and banditry.
Durnovo also accurately noted that although Russia was preparing for a new war after the war with Japan, but not enough was done “with those unprecedented dimensions in which a future war would inevitably flow.” “To a large extent, our young legislative institutions, amateurishly interested in our defense, but far from imbued with all the seriousness of the political situation, are to blame for this insufficiency,” which Russia found itself due to the actions of the Foreign Ministry, which was actively pursuing an alliance with Britain and France, with the "patriotic" mood of society. First of all it should be noted “The insufficiency of our military reserves,” as the procurement plans were not fulfilled due to the “low productivity of our factories.” The problem of the army’s ammunition "is of greater importance because, in the embryonic state of our industry, during the war, we will not be able to replenish the nedochvats with home remedies. ” At the same time, the enemy blocks communications in the Baltic and Black Seas during the war, which will worsen the supply of necessary materials to Russia.
Quite rightly noted excessive dependence of Russian defense on foreign industry, our shortage of heavy artillery and machine guns, the significance of which was proved by the experience of the war with Japan. The network of strategic railways is insufficient, and the railways have rolling stock sufficient for normal movement in peacetime, but inadequate to the enormous demands that will be made to us in the event of a major European war. Also “we should not lose sight of the fact that in the upcoming war the most cultural, technically advanced nations will fight. Every war has always been accompanied by a hitherto new word in the field of military equipment, and the technical backwardness of our industry does not create favorable conditions for us to assimilate new inventions. ”
To be continued ...
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