Minsk "Surprise"
The 16-hour negotiations in Minsk to resolve the conflict in Ukraine broke all negotiation records of modern times. Accredited journalists, having received a card on which was written “Minsk. 11 February 2015 of the Year ”, of course, suspected that the negotiations could be delayed, but so much so! .. As a result, journalistic accreditation for 11 February after 3,5 hours after the start of the negotiations of the“ Norman Four ”turned out to be“ overdue ” . The lengthy discussions in the Minsk Palace of Independence, which by definition could not be simple, seemed to end with the appearance of “white smoke from a chimney” - recalling the tradition of electing the Pope of Rome. Some “white smoke appearances” did not wait and settled into an alarming dream right in the press center hall, someone was located on the floor in the hall of the Palace of Independence. As a result, “smoke” appeared, but its color was such that not everyone, even now, can state with a high degree of unambiguity whether it is white or black - did the “reset” take place and the choice of a peaceful solution, or did the negotiations result in nothing?
Not only those who tried to follow them in Minsk or in any other city of the planet were ambiguous estimated the results of many hours of negotiations, but also those who took the most direct part in the negotiations or represented the organizing side. Perhaps, to those people who exactly saw the “white smoke”, it is safe to refer President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, for whom the very fact of organizing a “Norman” meeting in Minsk is a big plus. Plus, considering the fact that the head of the Republic of Belarus, for years on end, called by the West “the last dictator” of Europe and receiving one portion of sanctions after another, February 11-12 became a handshake for the EU leaders - Germany and France. Smiles, flowers, everything ... How long? - a separate question, but the fact is that the rating of Lukashenko after the organization of such serious negotiations in Belarus has grown significantly in the eyes of the so-called world community.
Alexander Lukashenko after the end of the negotiations of the "Norman Four" said (quote "BelTA"):
This statement by Alexander Lukashenko, which seems to be positive, contains a key phrase, in essence, defining the outcome of the negotiations in the Belarusian capital: “we managed to reach an agreement on STARTING WAR.”
First, without any flowery diplomatic linguistic constructions, war is called a war. Secondly, what is even more important at the moment, it is only about “suspension”. That is, the whole point is that the war does not stop completely, and for some time it can be "frozen." What time is it? How long will the “suspension” last, and will it last at all? There were no answers to these questions before the start of negotiations, and not now.
However, on Thursday 12 February Kremlin official site опубликовал documentWhich is entitled as the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. In order to be able to evaluate the essence of this document in full, you need to submit the document itself, which is called paragraph by point, while taking into account that it is difficult to call a single document for a number of positions. The ambiguity is manifested in the first paragraph of the document, which was originally signed: Leonid Kuchma, Heidi Tagliavini, Mikhail Zurabov, Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko.
1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting from 00:00. (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015.
Ambiguity in the phrase "individual areas". I do not want to be engaged in literalism, but this is not a plan for holding the race in bags, but about human lives! It is clear that the document is preliminary, but if specific areas for a comprehensive cease-fire are not mentioned now, is it worth waiting for a real implementation of this item from the same Kiev in the future? Does this point mean that if some monitoring group will monitor its compliance, then this group will not have a fundamental possibility of monitoring the entire territory of Donbass, because we are talking about certain "certain areas". As the tragedy with the shelling of Kramatorsk shows, such an option can be used by punitive divisions, uncontrolled by Kiev, to carry out further provocations.
2. Removal of all heavy weapons by both sides at equal distances in order to create a security zone at least 50 km wide from each other for artillery systems of 100 mm and more, a security zone 70 km wide for the MLRS and 140 km wide for the MLRS "Tornado-S", " Hurricane "," Smerch "and tactical missile systems" Point "(" Point U "):
- for Ukrainian troops: from the actual line of contact;
- for the armed formations of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine (oh, this political correctness ... - author’s note): from the contact line according to the Minsk Memorandum of September 19 2014.
The withdrawal of the above heavy weapons should begin no later than the second day after the cease-fire and be completed within 14 days.
Stop! Stop! Stop! The item is long - "blah blah blah" a lot. But what strikes the eye in the first sentences, so much so that the eyes are rounded and enlarged to the size of the Soviet metal ruble? - Tornado-S. What, sir, sorry? That same installation of volley fire "Tornado-S", which is in service with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and no one else, no matter how much? .. Paying attention to the fact that the document as presented on the Kremlin website, signed not only by Kuchma, but also by the heads of the DPR and the LPR, plus - by Mr. Zurabov, I would like to ask these people the question: how did this “Tornado” appear in the document along with the words about the need for its withdrawal? Honestly, after such an item it is foolish to blame the accusations of the Ukrainian side on the supply of Russian weapons the militia ... For now, even psaki has an official reason to declare that, they say, see: the document has been signed and published on the Kremlin’s website, which means that the Carpenter, Zakharchenko, and the Kremlin “confirm” that the weapons in service only the Russian army "Tornado-S" may well show up in the Donbass, and that these MLRSs must also be removed "from the line of contact."
Now try to prove that there are no Tornado-Ss in the Donbass ... If Poroshenko does not understand the military equipment, he said that Kramatorsk was fired from Tornado, then from Tornado - and no nails, let even the Ukrainian military tried to explain to him that the type of MLRS was completely different. It turns out that Poroshenko was the one who managed to push this clearly anti-Russian point into the document, and the leaders of the DPR and the LPR signed it? .. If they did not sign the document, then why was the wording issued on the Russian president’s website:
There is another point, to put it mildly, at this point: “withdrawal of the listed heavy weapons (blah blah blah) no later than the second day after the cease-fire”. What is the vicious circle? - Heavy weapons will be withdrawn after the cease-fire, but this fire is unlikely to be able to really stop, because heavy weapons are not diverted ... Or is it a matter of a cease-fire solely from weapons of smaller calibers?
Further in the text:
This process will be facilitated by the OSCE with the support of the Tripartite Contact Group.
3. To ensure effective monitoring and verification of the cease-fire regime and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the OSCE from the first day of withdrawal, using all necessary technical means, including satellites, UAVs, radar systems, etc.
4. On the first day after the challenge, start a dialogue on the modalities of holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions", as well as on the future regime of these regions on the basis of this law.
Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing this document, adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine indicating the territory covered by the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary procedure of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts" in the Minsk memorandum of September 19 2014
That is, it first talks about some particular areas of Donbass, and then about the fact that the Rada needs to adopt a resolution on what exactly these territories are and on which of them to hold elections. Rada, of course, will accept ... She thinks there every day, how can she accept ... a document on the temporary order of local self-government.
5. Provide pardon and amnesty by the enactment of a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
Under this point, apparently, trying to push through the release of Nadezhda Savchenko, who in Russia is accused of involvement in the death of Russian journalists.
6. To ensure the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons on the basis of the “all for all” principle. This process should be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the challenge.
7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to those in need through an international mechanism.
8. Defining the modalities of the full restoration of social and economic relations, including social transfers, such as payment of pensions and other payments (revenues and incomes, timely payment of all utility bills, tax resumption within the legal framework of Ukraine).
To this end, Ukraine will restore management of a segment of its banking system in areas affected by the conflict, and perhaps an international mechanism will be created to facilitate such transfers.
9. Restoration of full control over the state border by the Government of Ukraine in the entire conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and end after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions based on the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) by the end 2015 of the year, subject to the implementation of the item 11 - in consultation and in consultation with representatives of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
“After a comprehensive political settlement” ... Does anyone really believe that? How do any of the right people believe that an item with the 10 number will work:
10. The withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarm all illegal groups.
This is exactly how Petro Poroshenko disarms the battalion “named after Dzhokhar Dudayev”, “Azov”, “Aydar” and expels Polish, Swedish, Finnish, Baltic, American and other mercenaries ... Peter Alekseevich’s powers are so extensive that he can afford letting one take it like that, and disarm all the mercenaries and turn them out of the "nenka" ...
11. Conducting a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of 2015 of the new constitution, which assumes decentralization as a key element (taking into account the peculiarities of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with representatives of these regions), and the adoption of permanent legislation on the special status of certain regions Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
I don’t want to discuss the constitutional reform in Ukraine at all, because in terms of “observance” of the constitution, Ukraine is an outstanding state. Only in Ukraine you can make an unconstitutional coup, raping all the basic laws of the state, then use the same laws to come to power, then to declare that the current constitution is anti-Ukrainian, and it needs to be replaced by another ... Next - again in a circle ...
12. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions" issues relating to local elections will be discussed and agreed with representatives of individual districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with relevant OSCE standards when monitored by the OSCE / ODIHR.
"OSCE standards"? It's funny, isn't it ... This is not the standards on the basis of which Kosovo without a referendum was recognized as an independent state, and the Crimea on the basis of a referendum is still not recognized as Russian territory. Strong standards of this OSCE, and most importantly unambiguous - you will not say anything ...
13. Intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the creation of working groups to implement relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
For some reason, after these negotiations and the document presented on the website of the Russian president, the feeling that at least one foot fell into dog shit doesn’t leave - and something not with the smell of lavender and daisies is dripping from above ... I would like to hope that such a bad feeling only the author of the material, and that in fact, everything is much more optimistic, because nobody spoke about the implementation ...
Not only those who tried to follow them in Minsk or in any other city of the planet were ambiguous estimated the results of many hours of negotiations, but also those who took the most direct part in the negotiations or represented the organizing side. Perhaps, to those people who exactly saw the “white smoke”, it is safe to refer President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, for whom the very fact of organizing a “Norman” meeting in Minsk is a big plus. Plus, considering the fact that the head of the Republic of Belarus, for years on end, called by the West “the last dictator” of Europe and receiving one portion of sanctions after another, February 11-12 became a handshake for the EU leaders - Germany and France. Smiles, flowers, everything ... How long? - a separate question, but the fact is that the rating of Lukashenko after the organization of such serious negotiations in Belarus has grown significantly in the eyes of the so-called world community.
Alexander Lukashenko after the end of the negotiations of the "Norman Four" said (quote "BelTA"):
They (Putin, Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko - author's note) are just great, they have withstood this marathon, but you do not exaggerate the fact that these negotiations went on for such a long time. Questions of war and peace are solved for months, or even years, and here it was possible to reach agreement on suspending war for only 15 (16) hours. Well done!
This statement by Alexander Lukashenko, which seems to be positive, contains a key phrase, in essence, defining the outcome of the negotiations in the Belarusian capital: “we managed to reach an agreement on STARTING WAR.”
First, without any flowery diplomatic linguistic constructions, war is called a war. Secondly, what is even more important at the moment, it is only about “suspension”. That is, the whole point is that the war does not stop completely, and for some time it can be "frozen." What time is it? How long will the “suspension” last, and will it last at all? There were no answers to these questions before the start of negotiations, and not now.
However, on Thursday 12 February Kremlin official site опубликовал documentWhich is entitled as the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. In order to be able to evaluate the essence of this document in full, you need to submit the document itself, which is called paragraph by point, while taking into account that it is difficult to call a single document for a number of positions. The ambiguity is manifested in the first paragraph of the document, which was originally signed: Leonid Kuchma, Heidi Tagliavini, Mikhail Zurabov, Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko.
1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting from 00:00. (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015.
Ambiguity in the phrase "individual areas". I do not want to be engaged in literalism, but this is not a plan for holding the race in bags, but about human lives! It is clear that the document is preliminary, but if specific areas for a comprehensive cease-fire are not mentioned now, is it worth waiting for a real implementation of this item from the same Kiev in the future? Does this point mean that if some monitoring group will monitor its compliance, then this group will not have a fundamental possibility of monitoring the entire territory of Donbass, because we are talking about certain "certain areas". As the tragedy with the shelling of Kramatorsk shows, such an option can be used by punitive divisions, uncontrolled by Kiev, to carry out further provocations.
2. Removal of all heavy weapons by both sides at equal distances in order to create a security zone at least 50 km wide from each other for artillery systems of 100 mm and more, a security zone 70 km wide for the MLRS and 140 km wide for the MLRS "Tornado-S", " Hurricane "," Smerch "and tactical missile systems" Point "(" Point U "):
- for Ukrainian troops: from the actual line of contact;
- for the armed formations of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine (oh, this political correctness ... - author’s note): from the contact line according to the Minsk Memorandum of September 19 2014.
The withdrawal of the above heavy weapons should begin no later than the second day after the cease-fire and be completed within 14 days.
Stop! Stop! Stop! The item is long - "blah blah blah" a lot. But what strikes the eye in the first sentences, so much so that the eyes are rounded and enlarged to the size of the Soviet metal ruble? - Tornado-S. What, sir, sorry? That same installation of volley fire "Tornado-S", which is in service with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and no one else, no matter how much? .. Paying attention to the fact that the document as presented on the Kremlin website, signed not only by Kuchma, but also by the heads of the DPR and the LPR, plus - by Mr. Zurabov, I would like to ask these people the question: how did this “Tornado” appear in the document along with the words about the need for its withdrawal? Honestly, after such an item it is foolish to blame the accusations of the Ukrainian side on the supply of Russian weapons the militia ... For now, even psaki has an official reason to declare that, they say, see: the document has been signed and published on the Kremlin’s website, which means that the Carpenter, Zakharchenko, and the Kremlin “confirm” that the weapons in service only the Russian army "Tornado-S" may well show up in the Donbass, and that these MLRSs must also be removed "from the line of contact."
Now try to prove that there are no Tornado-Ss in the Donbass ... If Poroshenko does not understand the military equipment, he said that Kramatorsk was fired from Tornado, then from Tornado - and no nails, let even the Ukrainian military tried to explain to him that the type of MLRS was completely different. It turns out that Poroshenko was the one who managed to push this clearly anti-Russian point into the document, and the leaders of the DPR and the LPR signed it? .. If they did not sign the document, then why was the wording issued on the Russian president’s website:
There is another point, to put it mildly, at this point: “withdrawal of the listed heavy weapons (blah blah blah) no later than the second day after the cease-fire”. What is the vicious circle? - Heavy weapons will be withdrawn after the cease-fire, but this fire is unlikely to be able to really stop, because heavy weapons are not diverted ... Or is it a matter of a cease-fire solely from weapons of smaller calibers?
Further in the text:
This process will be facilitated by the OSCE with the support of the Tripartite Contact Group.
3. To ensure effective monitoring and verification of the cease-fire regime and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the OSCE from the first day of withdrawal, using all necessary technical means, including satellites, UAVs, radar systems, etc.
4. On the first day after the challenge, start a dialogue on the modalities of holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions", as well as on the future regime of these regions on the basis of this law.
Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing this document, adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine indicating the territory covered by the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary procedure of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts" in the Minsk memorandum of September 19 2014
That is, it first talks about some particular areas of Donbass, and then about the fact that the Rada needs to adopt a resolution on what exactly these territories are and on which of them to hold elections. Rada, of course, will accept ... She thinks there every day, how can she accept ... a document on the temporary order of local self-government.
5. Provide pardon and amnesty by the enactment of a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
Under this point, apparently, trying to push through the release of Nadezhda Savchenko, who in Russia is accused of involvement in the death of Russian journalists.
6. To ensure the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons on the basis of the “all for all” principle. This process should be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the challenge.
7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to those in need through an international mechanism.
8. Defining the modalities of the full restoration of social and economic relations, including social transfers, such as payment of pensions and other payments (revenues and incomes, timely payment of all utility bills, tax resumption within the legal framework of Ukraine).
To this end, Ukraine will restore management of a segment of its banking system in areas affected by the conflict, and perhaps an international mechanism will be created to facilitate such transfers.
9. Restoration of full control over the state border by the Government of Ukraine in the entire conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and end after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions based on the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) by the end 2015 of the year, subject to the implementation of the item 11 - in consultation and in consultation with representatives of individual regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
“After a comprehensive political settlement” ... Does anyone really believe that? How do any of the right people believe that an item with the 10 number will work:
10. The withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarm all illegal groups.
This is exactly how Petro Poroshenko disarms the battalion “named after Dzhokhar Dudayev”, “Azov”, “Aydar” and expels Polish, Swedish, Finnish, Baltic, American and other mercenaries ... Peter Alekseevich’s powers are so extensive that he can afford letting one take it like that, and disarm all the mercenaries and turn them out of the "nenka" ...
11. Conducting a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of 2015 of the new constitution, which assumes decentralization as a key element (taking into account the peculiarities of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, agreed with representatives of these regions), and the adoption of permanent legislation on the special status of certain regions Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
I don’t want to discuss the constitutional reform in Ukraine at all, because in terms of “observance” of the constitution, Ukraine is an outstanding state. Only in Ukraine you can make an unconstitutional coup, raping all the basic laws of the state, then use the same laws to come to power, then to declare that the current constitution is anti-Ukrainian, and it needs to be replaced by another ... Next - again in a circle ...
12. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions" issues relating to local elections will be discussed and agreed with representatives of individual districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with relevant OSCE standards when monitored by the OSCE / ODIHR.
"OSCE standards"? It's funny, isn't it ... This is not the standards on the basis of which Kosovo without a referendum was recognized as an independent state, and the Crimea on the basis of a referendum is still not recognized as Russian territory. Strong standards of this OSCE, and most importantly unambiguous - you will not say anything ...
13. Intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the creation of working groups to implement relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
For some reason, after these negotiations and the document presented on the website of the Russian president, the feeling that at least one foot fell into dog shit doesn’t leave - and something not with the smell of lavender and daisies is dripping from above ... I would like to hope that such a bad feeling only the author of the material, and that in fact, everything is much more optimistic, because nobody spoke about the implementation ...
Information