Last week, during the visit of Petro Poroshenko to Turkey, Prime Minister Ahmed Dovutoglu called Ukraine a “strategic ally”. Ankara has promised support for Kiev in the return of the Crimea under Ukrainian jurisdiction. Earlier, the notorious Mustafa Dzhemilev told the Ukrainian media that he had given the letter from the Turkish Defense Ministry to the Minister of Defense that they were ready to consider the supply of the necessary equipment without specifying which one. There is no doubt that Petro Poroshenko agreed with the Turks on military cooperation.
In the 17th century, something similar was already happening. The namesake of the current Kiev ruler Hetman Little Russia Peter Doroshenko then started a military alliance with the Turks. First, he achieved the election of the right-bank Ukraine to be the hetman, this happened in 1665, which was approved by the Cossack Rada in 1666. Then the new ruler began to subordinate to himself the left bank, Kiev and the lands of Seversk, which by that time were in Moscow citizenship. There he managed to raise an uprising against Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich and subjugate the entire Hetman Little Russia in the summer of 1668. Then Doroshenko turned to the Turkish Sultan Magomed IV for help, in fact, handed the shaky sovereignty of the hetman in the hands of the Ottoman ruler, without the consent of the Cossack Rada. Sultan from 1671 to 1676 year undertook several campaigns to the north and for some time supported his new subject with fire and sword.
The Turks helped Doroshenko not only to fight with Moscow and the Poles, but also to suppress unrest among their Cossacks. During the reign of Peter Doroshenko, the hetman Little Russia fell into complete decay and became popularly known as the Ruin. The right bank, the Left bank, Kiev and its districts were empty, the inhabitants from these places fled east to the borders of the Great Russian state, to areas at that time sparsely populated, which are now within the borders of Kharkiv and Voronezh regions.
More recently, Turkey has quite seriously considered the possibility of starting a war against Russia. This is evidenced by the repeated sharp remarks on this subject by President Recep Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Dovutoglu. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt авavusoglu was more specific in his judgments, he bluntly stated: "If necessary, I assure you, we can occupy Russia with NATO and our regional allies in less than seven days." In a tone to him as recently as last week, Ahmed Dovutoglu also made a tough statement: “I again warn Russia, which has recently given air support to advancing the Kurdish self-defense forces in Azazaz and subjecting innocent people to intensive bombing, using a terrorist organization against civilians and Turkey . Let those who intend to use the pawns of terror against Turkey know: this, like a boomerang, will turn against you. ” These words were not spoken anywhere, but during the speech of the Prime Minister in front of almost the entire composition of the Turkish General Staff.
It is no accident that Ukraine was among the so-called regional allies. At a recent meeting between President Erdogan and his colleague from the Kiev spill, Petro Poroshenko, the high parties agreed on comprehensive cooperation. During this meeting, the Turkish leader assured that "Turkey will always support the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea." Ankara promised Kiev a small loan of $ 50 million, of course, for humanitarian needs - but what else. Meanwhile, the flagship of Ukrainian fleet the Getman Sagaidachny patrol ship (project 11351) went to the shores of Turkey to deliver "humanitarian aid" to their homeland, which this time became military uniform with a total value of about 800 thousand dollars
Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Skachko assures that Erdogan and Poroshenko are trying to convince the whole world that there is some anti-Russian coalition that not only speaks from political positions, but is also ready to fight Russia and "Russian imperialism."
Of the entire pleiad of “regional allies” in the spirit of the militant, Ukraine was not the closest to the Turkish leadership. The statement of Verkhovna Rada deputy Sergei Pashinsky, who heads the parliamentary committee on national security and defense, of Kiev’s readiness to impose martial law in the southeast and declare war on Russia cannot be interpreted in two ways. Moreover, the deputy assures that this decision has already been made, but was postponed solely for economic reasons. They say the snag is that the IMF can not give money.
The deputies of the Rada went further, a proposal was made to break the diplomatic relations with the eastern neighbor in the Rada, so far they have only registered, but the first step is trouble! Turchinov still 28 February 2014 of the year demanded to declare war on Russia. Yatsenyuk throughout his activities has repeatedly stated that Kiev is at war with Moscow, and he did it so often that even the most loyal friends stopped paying attention to him. Perhaps the leadership of the Square had an idea to carry out the next step. And how can he not be done if an experienced fighter, Russophobe Saakashvili, assures his listeners that the Ukrainian army can easily occupy Russia by providing the American weaponthat the morale of the Ukrainian soldiers, more than ever, is high and they are taught by the same Pentagon military specialists, who trained the Georgian soldiers in their time, and this is a guarantee of an inevitable victory in a possible forthcoming war between Ukraine and Russia. Yes, there is still fuel to the fire poured by the senior officer of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Colonel Fedichev, assuring the public that the troops of Nezalezhnaya are able to defeat the Russians if the latter approach, which, according to Fedichev, will be strictly waged from the border in a western direction along the coast Azov and Black Seas.
TURKEY DIDN'T DECIDE ON OPEN WAR WITH RUSSIA
The initial military fervor of Ankara, which reached its peak in the first months after the death of the Russian front-line bomber in Syria, cooled somewhat after it became clear that NATO was not going to unconditionally support Turkey. The discrepancy occurred in relations with regional allies, all but one. The nearest of them, Azerbaijan, was very restrained in accepting the desire of Turkey to restore the former glory of the Ottomans in confrontation with Moscow with arms in hand. The wise Ilham Aliyev prefers not to get involved in any kind of coalition wars, he lacks Nagorno-Karabakh in excess. In the end, though, Shiite Azerbaijan is a brother of Turkey, but not very native, by the way, the Turks make it clear to Azerbaijanis quite often at the household level. Permanent enemy of Russia Sakartvelo (the self-name of Georgia) is not averse to taking revenge for the 2008 year, but not by using its own resources, Tbilisi is ready to cede this right to anyone and, of course, morally. Of all the regional allies, only his Ukrainian counterpart reacted with understanding to the needs of President Erdogan.
Let's see what Turkey itself has. From the shock forces can be distinguished missiles J-600T operational-tactical class. Ankara has three versions of this type of weapons with a range of actions: Yildirim 1 - up to 150 km, Yildirim 2 - up to 300 km and Yildirim 3 - up to 1000 km. The Yildirim 4 rocket is under development and is capable of traveling about 2500 km. The combat part of these missiles weighs about half a ton, the self-propelled launcher is made on the basis of the MAN 26 372 all-terrain vehicle. There is one more self-propelled tactical missile system (OTRK) - the MGM 140 "ATACMS", the combat part of the missiles of this complex has several modifications. Version M39 - cassette, equipped with 950 submunitions M74 (radius of impact 15 m) with a range of up to 165 km. Modification MGM 140В with a flight range of up to 300 km with a lightweight warhead. Everything else flies no further 100 km. In any case, there is a job for Russian missile defense forces.
Turkish aviation it does not have bombers, from the entire fleet of attack aircraft it is possible to distinguish light F16C (180 units) and F16D (56 units) fighters, if additional tanks for fuel are hung on them, their maximum flight range will be 2450 miles, while the combat load will be insignificant. All other fighters are outright junk. Turkish aviation will be able to operate effectively only near its bases. Russia has significantly more powerful air forces, which include light and heavy fighters, as well as long-range bombers and missile carriers, and are able to create a strong enough aviation group to achieve complete domination in the sky in a short time. In addition, Russia has the latest air defense systems.
The entire territory of Turkey is achievable for strikes by Russian mid-range Caliber missiles, sea-based, and ХХNUMX, air-based, whose combat qualities have been successfully demonstrated not so long ago. Russian long-range aviation can make combat missions from bases in the Crimea (up to the Black Sea coast of Turkey in a straight line just 101 km), in Mozdok and Engels.
The rather strong Turkish fleet, including 16 frigates, 8 corvettes, 13 diesel submarines and many other ships, is concentrated in a small area in the southern Black Sea, eastern Aegean, on a small patch of the Marmara Sea . At first glance, this gives an advantage in actions against the Russian fleet, which will have to gather forces for a war on water from remote areas (the Northern Fleet - the Arctic, the Pacific Fleet - the Far East, etc.), but in fact tighten the naval forces of Russia unlikely to be necessary. The concentrated deployment of the Turkish Navy is their weakness, the war on the sea will be solved by strikes of Russian ballistic and cruise missiles on surface and underwater targets, so that the fleets will not have to fight in the old fashioned way. A new Sinop or Chesme battle will not require a rapprochement of ships to the distance of direct artillery fire. The ships accidentally breaking through to our shores (this can be assumed, so, purely hypothetically) will be destroyed by the forces of the Black Sea Fleet, first of all, by the coastal missile systems "Bastion".
The invasion of Turkish territory by Russian ground forces is unlikely to be necessary, but let's see what Turkey has here. Structurally, the Ottoman land forces consist of four field armies, which include 10 army corps, four motorized infantry divisions (of which two are incomplete), one infantry division, and an army aviation group. Housings are formed from tank, mechanized, artillery brigades, battalion composition. There are separate commando and mountain rifle brigades, artillery and engineer regiments, regional defense brigades. The number of ground forces is about 200 thousand bayonets (the total number of the armed forces is estimated, according to various sources, from 600 to 760 thousand bayonets, with an active reserve of about 430 thousand people and an operational mobile reserve of about 2,5 million people). The ground forces are armed with 354 Leopard 2 tanks; 932 M60 Patton tanks and about 1150 obsolete tanks. Frankly, not a lot. There are more than 5,6 thousand combat armored vehicles from various suppliers, and slightly more than 2 thousand light armored vehicles. The artillery park consists of 1013 self-propelled guns with a caliber of 203 mm, 175 mm, 155 mm, 105 mm; about 700 towed guns (including mortars); there are also over 800 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Army aviation is armed with over 200 transport and 64 combat helicopters. You see for yourself, with such strengths, the Turkish armed forces alone cannot fight Russia. Besides, Ankara has enemies besides Moscow.
The main enemy of Turkey is the partisan formations of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and the armed structures of Syrian Kurdistan interacting with them. The forces of the latter are now distracted by the fight against the Islamic State (IG) terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation and the radical armed groups in Syria like it. But the PKK detachments are fully concerned with the struggle with the Turkish government. Recently, I was able to talk with a representative of the PKK. He gave a very unflattering assessment of the Turkish army’s combat capability and stated that 20, thousands of Kurdish militia fighters (and this is a battle-hardened, active, highly motivated armed contingent) is able to arrange a bloodbath for the Turks if Ankara decides to go to war with Russia. In addition, the PKK planned to launch active hostilities throughout Turkey in 2016, so Erdogan will have no time for Russia. The representative of the PKK said: “We will descend from the mountains to Turkish cities”.
In addition, one must take into account Ankara’s complex relations with its neighbors. No wonder the Turkish Armed Forces deployed their most powerful First Field Army against Greece, their NATO ally. A solid military contingent is in Cyprus. The Turks occupied the northern part of the island in the summer of 1974, and are not going to leave from there. And if you consider that Cyprus is a member of the European Union, which Turkey is so eagerly seeking, the situation with this blatant occupation looks very delicate. Now on the occupied part of the island there are 11 army corps (about 40 thousand bayonets, 450 tanks, 627 BBM, about 200 artillery units, there are helicopters and combat boats), which include two motorized infantry divisions (28-I and 39- i), 14 Tank Brigade, 49 Special Regiment, 41 Regiment Commandos, 109 Artillery Regiment, Marine Corps Battalion, Engineering Battalion and Logistics Subunits. A few words should be said about how Ankara relates to the decisions of the European International Court of Human Rights (ECHR). At the ECHR ruling on the recovery in favor of the Republic of Cyprus 90 million euros from Turkey for violating the convention on human rights in northern Cyprus Ahmet Davutoglu replied: "We will not pay this amount to a country that we do not recognize." Ankara aimed the third field army (which is slightly smaller than the first in strength) against the eastern neighbors of Armenia and Iran.
Apparently, the war with Russia could be a catastrophe for Turkey, comparable to the one to which her participation in the First World War led her. At this disappointing background for Recep Erdogan, and he had an alliance of regional significance with Petro Poroshenko. I hope you don’t have to answer the question whether this alliance received approval from overseas. Outwardly, it looks like Ankara (which because of a number of wrong political decisions of its leadership turned out to be in some isolation) and Kiev (which already fed Europe, and the United States somewhat cooled to it) agreed on some indefinite cooperation. The real alliance of Ukraine and Turkey, which has a veiled military character, is directed against Russia.
KIEV AND ANKARA
These piles of scrap metal were once Ukrainian military equipment. Reuters Photos
I have no doubt that Petro Poroshenko enlisted the support of Recep Erdogan, in case Ukraine declares war on Russia. The calculation is simple: to initiate a quarrel and declare to the whole world that “aggressive Russia” has finally shown its true face and began an open invasion of the territory of an independent “peace-loving Ukraine”. When the fight begins, the West will not understand who started it and why, for him the enemy has long been defined. In this action, the possible goal of Kiev, which has already ceased to receive sufficient assistance from the European Union and the United States, is to revive and, if possible, increase interest in itself, and at the same time attract NATO as a bully with a club that stands behind a juvenile Kiev bully. The pretext for the war, in fact, has already been voiced - Petro Poroshenko was not for nothing persistently speaking to his Turkish counterpart about the return of the Crimea. It remains for the small: to decide on an extremely desperate step - a declaration of war, which can only happen under the pressure of extraordinary circumstances.
Turkey is interested in squeezing Russia out of Syria and is ready to do it by any means. Partial withdrawal of the Russian military contingent may be considered by Ankara as the first success, stimulating further actions. If Ukraine declares war on Russia, the latter will have to decide whether to fight on two theaters, which will be a serious burden for the country's budget, or curtail its actions in Syria and fully switch to the defense of their frontiers. Such a course of events will allow Turkey to draw NATO into its confrontation with Moscow, to close the Bosphorus for Russia, to act more decisively on Syrian territory.
Ankara is able to supply arms and ammunition to Ukraine (just as it supplies the Syrian Islamist groups), especially since it has the need to attach its old tanks and other military equipment somewhere. Ankara can send to the Square and the military contingent, however, this will not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces, whose weakness is obvious and irreparable.
On the possible supply paths should be said separately. To transport military cargo by sea and troops will be problematic. The Black Sea Fleet can prevent such attempts even without the use of surface, submarine warships and aircraft. The coastal anti-ship missile system "Bastion", located in the Crimea, reliably covers almost the entire water area of the Black Sea. This means that the supply will be carried out by land on the territory of Bulgaria and Romania.
Ukraine is ready to fight with Russia, but how
Kiev’s intentions to initiate the military background of its relations with Moscow have been heard more than once from various Ukrainian politicians more than once. On top of that, the representative of the Square in the political subgroup of the tripartite contact group at the negotiations in Minsk, Roman Immortal, in a recent interview stated that Ukraine must recognize the existence of the Russian-Ukrainian war in order to receive support from the international community. Petro Poroshenko and his entourage persistently convince the West that the Ukrainian army is strong and ready to fight. Kiev triumphantly reports that over the past few months, Ukrainian defense enterprises have managed to restore 9 combat aircraft, 9 helicopters, 316 tanks, 251 BTR and BMP units, 220 artillery pieces of various calibers, etc. But even Western journalists point out that the news of the fabulous fighting capacity of the Ukrainian troops is simply fiction. According to European media, the supply of armored vehicles by the Ukrainian defense industry has been disrupted. Armored cars obtained from Great Britain and the United States turned out to be of insufficient quality and, moreover, partially “dissolved in the air.” The only thing that really has the Ukrainian army (APU), so it is infantry, armed with small arms, as the Soviet models, and the newly produced licensed, large-caliber sniper rifles of western production, anti-tank melee weapons, large-caliber machine guns and automatic grenade launchers.
The number of troops Square fluctuates around 300 thousand bayonets. Available there are self-propelled, towed (including mortars) artillery and MLRS, of satisfactory quality, as well as fairly battered, but working armored vehicles. And, like a cherry on top of a cake, there are outdated tactical and operational-tactical missile systems in the arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian aviation and the fleet, as they were in a non-operational state, remained so in it.
A legitimate question arises: what can Kiev expect if he wants to declare war on Moscow? Indeed, such a move, at first glance, is simply incredible, there is nothing to fight. Nobody doubts that Russian troops will immediately secure their supremacy in the sky. The presence of the latest ballistic and cruise missiles, powerful artillery and armored vehicles will provide an opportunity for our Ground Forces to advance quickly and with minimal losses. And the Russian army has already proven its ability to conduct a dynamic, maneuverable war.
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS
Suppose the war between Russia and Ukraine has begun. The most likely scenario for events looks like a disaster for Square. In the case of decisive actions of the Russian troops, according to the most pessimistic forecast, on the seventh day of hostilities, the wreckage of the last aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force will burn down, by that time the whole, until the last boat, will be sunk, and the main military targets and groupings of troops destroyed by bombing attacks , the fields will smoke piles of twisted metal, which before the start of the war was military equipment and heavy armament. Small scattered groups of "Svidomo" fighters will seek salvation in a retreat to the west. Here is the moment to use the secret weapons of Kiev. Do you remember about the plan of the senior officer of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Colonel Fedichev, which says that the Russian army will be defeated upon reaching the banks of the Dnieper?
Once again I will return to the plan of Colonel Fedichev. He relies on high fighting spirit, the combat capability of his troops and the availability of modern weapons, it is clear that all of the above is not mentioned. The APU will not even be able to render weak resistance to Russian troops, especially after an avalanche from Iskander, Calibrov, other missiles and artillery ammunition clouds falls from the sky. In addition, in Zaporozhye, in the Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions, the Russian militia will be supported by local militia, the backbone of which already exists and operates in an illegal situation. For Kiev, the population of these areas will become the same "separatists" worthy of destruction, as the inhabitants of the Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk regions. You remember how in 2014, Yulia Tymoshenko offered to destroy the Crimeans and the Pitmen, I quote her words: "They must be shot with atomic weapons." How much cynicism in this phrase! What a mocking denial of the value of human life! At that time, no one took Tymoshenko’s words very seriously, but in vain. The Ukrainian atomic weapon is the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and three other operating nuclear power plants. Most likely, the plan for the defeat of the Russian troops of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is designed precisely for this factor, since there are no others. According to the forecasts of the Kiev military theorists, the ZNPP is exactly on the way of the Russian troops, and it has as many as six power units. The explosion of only one reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant caused the strongest radioactive contamination of a large area. The effect will be stronger if two such blocks or more blow up at once. Russian troops and “separatists” will be exposed to strong radioactive effects, maybe this will not stop their offensive, but it cannot do without large losses. And polluted territories will then be immeasurably long unsuitable for human life. Hot heads, capable of taking such a step, will be found among the warriors in Square.
In the future, Kiev will accuse the Russian military of undermining the power units, and the West will surely believe it.
By the way, you should carefully listen to the statements of Ukrainian politicians. And to act according to the principle “it is better to overdo it with preventive measures, but to prevent even the intended catastrophe than to allow it”. I remind you that the armed forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have tactical missile systems (TRC) “Point U” with a range of up to 120 km; Scud, whose firing range reaches 600 km; "Elbrus", which sends a deadly cargo at a distance of 200 km. Of course, modern Russian missile defense systems are able to effectively resist these fuel dispensers, but the point is that it is necessary to take into account the possibility of Ukraine using these weapons. For example, the Kursk NPP is just 61,23 km from the border with the Sumy region. This distance rocket TRK "Point U" overcomes quickly - a little longer than one minute. And within 210 km of distance from the Ukrainian border there are three more Russian nuclear power plants: Novovoronezh, Rostov and Smolensk.
In the summer of 2014, many Ukrainian functionaries (including President Poroshenko) spoke of the need to train subversive groups, since the APU did not have to wage war on the battlefield against the Donbas militia. Recently, this idea was further developed; the leader of the Ukrainian nationalists, Yarosh, announced that he was starting to prepare saboteurs for action in Russia. The objects of their attacks may be nuclear power plants, so additional measures for their defense should be bothered in advance.
CALCULATION FOR THE REACTION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
It is possible that the war will only be formally declared. This is the most preferred scenario for Kiev. Testing for itself the diplomatic, political, economic pressure of the West, Moscow does not dare to conduct hostilities realistically. All limited to small clashes on the line of opposition. Others will remain in the form of a status quo: both gas transit and some minimal contacts. But at the same time, Ukraine will regain the former heightened interest and can count on increasing aid from the West, since it will already need it to wage an officially declared war. Ankara will also be an active participant in the process and will be able to count on the West to forgive its past pranks. The United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are intensifying actions aimed at finally squeezing Russia out of Syria. NATO will continue to increase its forces in the Baltic countries and in Norway.
The sluggish course of the armed confrontation with Russia will allow Kiev to keep its western partners in constant high tension under the pretext that at any moment war can enter an active phase. For example, if we assume that military actions will cover the entire territory of the Square, there is a danger of accidents at all four Ukrainian nuclear power plants, and these are 15 units. And if all of them are destroyed, then a huge region will be exposed to radioactive contamination, including the countries of Eastern Europe. Can you imagine what will happen to the nervous system of European politicians when they hear about the possibility of implementing such an apocalyptic scenario?
In such an environment, Kiev can expect to receive any preferences.