Military Review

Tehran is not scary

The armed forces of the Islamic Republic are able to neutralize any non-nuclear threat.

Iran’s military potential is one of the largest in the Middle East.

From a military geographical point of view, the position of Iran is very advantageous. It directly borders with countries that, at least at the present time, have not shown willingness to provide their territory under the NATO and Israel grouping for a military operation against their neighbor.

Turkey is unlikely to do this, as it claims a rebirth of influence in the Islamic world and has a complicated relationship with Israel. However, given the involvement in the internal conflict in Syria on the side of opponents of the legitimate government of this country - allies of Iran, as well as membership in NATO under certain conditions, Ankara can provide its territory for such operations.

In Pakistan, anti-American sentiment is strong. Therefore, the deployment of significant contingents of NATO troops is very difficult. However, Pakistan’s economic dependence on the United States and a strong pro-American lobby in the political elite can lead to the fact that under certain pressure the country's leadership will agree to the deployment of groups of troops intended for war with Iran.

Baghdad seeks to maintain at least a neutral relationship with Tehran and, most likely, will not provide an opportunity for invasion of its neighbor.

In Afghanistan, the grouping of NATO forces is not in a position to control the territory of the country, where, moreover, there is a lack of sufficient infrastructure to accommodate and ensure the intensive combat activities of large groups of troops. Saudi Arabia and the neighboring Arab monarchies are likely to agree to become a springboard for operations against Iran. They have a relatively well-developed military infrastructure that allows them to deploy large contingents. However, since these countries do not have a common border with Iran, their territory can be used mainly to house an air force grouping.

Iran’s military potential is one of the largest in the Middle East. The armed forces are distinguished by good training of personnel. Its fighting spirit is very high, which is largely determined by the fact that Iran is a theocratic state, in which Shiite Islam is accepted as the official religion. Today it is one of the most passionary religious movements.

The Armed Forces of Iran consist of two independent components - the army and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). Each of them has its own ground forces, air force and navy with the corresponding system of government bodies of peacetime and wartime.

The total number of regular armed forces of Iran exceeds 900 thousand people, of which about 670 thousand - in the army and the IRGC, up to 100 thousand - in the Air Force, more than 45 thousand - in the Navy, and about 150 thousand - in the Basij forces and special forces "Code". The reserve of ground forces is 350 thousand people with a total mobilization resource 10 million.

Persians - the power!

According to the materials of the open press, in the combat structure of the Ground Forces more than 1600 tanksincluding 540 T-55, 480 T-72, 168 M47, 150 M60, 100 Chiften, 100 Zulfikar (quite modern tanks of their own Iranian design) and 75 T-62. There are 550–670 infantry fighting vehicles, 2085 non-self-propelled artillery guns and 310 self-propelled guns, about 870 MLRS, 1700 anti-aircraft guns of military air defense, a large number of anti-tank guns, and at least 220 helicopters. In addition, 32 Shihab-3 ballistic missile launchers (about 40 missiles available) and 64 operational-tactical missiles (for which there are about 250 Shihab-1 and 100 Shihab-2 missiles).

The basis of the combat power of the Air Force is 25 MiG-29, 65 F-4 fighter-bombers, more than 60 F-5, up to 24 F1EQ Mirage and 60 F-14 (of which about 25 are in flight condition), as well as 30 front-line bombers Su-24. In total, the combat structure of the Air Force has about 30 combat and 100 transport aircraft, more than 400 helicopters for various purposes. The presence of the F-14, which has a powerful radar with a phased array (target detection range of a fighter type - up to 200 kilometers, and a bomber type - 300 kilometers or more) and the possibility of automated data exchange, allows solving radar surveillance and fighter guidance tasks aviation for air targets. That is, the Iranian air defense, when creating a radar field, has, in addition to a very vulnerable ground component, also an air component with significantly greater combat stability.

The Iranian Navy is considered the most capable in the Persian Gulf. They consist of five corvettes, 20 rocket ships (including 10 type Houdong boats equipped with C-802 missiles with 120 kilometers of firing range) and 20 torpedo boats, 13 assault ships, 28 auxiliary ships, three submarines, 22 aircraft and 15XXUMX aircraft and 20 landing craft. . In addition, the Iranian Navy has 10 order of ultra-small submarines and about 70 coastal missile systems equipped with anti-ship missiles with a range from 250 to XNUMX kilometers.

Air defense is represented by missile systems, mainly Soviet (Russian) development. These are about 10 С-200 and 45 С-75, as well as X-NUMX "Tor-М29" and 1 ЗРПК "Pantsir" С-10. Also as part of the air defense system, there are 1 British air defense systems of the short-range "Rapier" and American-made Improved Hawk 30 air defense systems, for which the production of missiles and spare parts was mastered (these air defense systems were modernized according to the Iranian project, called "Shahin"). A certain number of Soviet “Kvadrat” air defense systems and 150 mobile outdated British air defense systems “Taygatt” are also known. In total, the country's defense consists of about 15 anti-aircraft fire units. As is known, Russia supplies C-3000 to Iran.

Enviable potency

The combat capabilities of the Iranian armed forces are carefully hidden. However, on the basis of an analysis of their combat strength and strength, it is possible to sufficiently estimate their ability to resist external aggression.

The Iranian Air Force and Air Defense, provided effective masquerading measures are in place, can effectively resist even the most modern air enemy, in particular, they can easily disrupt the air offensive operation of the NATO and Israel air forces with participation of up to 300 – 350 aircraft and 500 cruise missiles. At the same time, the expected losses of the air defense system and the Iranian Air Force will not exceed the critical ones and they will retain their combat effectiveness, while the aggressor will miss 5 – 12 percent of its aircraft.

At the same time, the Iranian armed forces themselves can launch missile strikes using MRBMs at targets in the operational depth of the grouping of the armed forces of the enemy and disable up to four to six airfields for up to two to three days with the destruction from 10 to 15 of the aircraft and helicopters.

Iranian Navy is able to withstand a powerful naval enemy (for example the fleet USA) only in coastal areas, at a distance of up to 150 kilometers from the coast. According to the estimates of the American military experts, which they did after the exercises with computer simulation of military operations, the loss of the US Navy in the event of their entry into the Persian Gulf can turn out to be very significant with a favorable development for Iran - up to one aircraft carrier and up to four to five class surface ships destroyer cruiser. Losses of the Iranian Navy will also be very significant and may exceed 70 percent of the initial combat strength.

At a distance of more than 300 kilometers from the coast, it is effective to resist the US Navy. Iran is capable of only non-nuclear Russian-made submarines of the 877EKM project and mines. weapons. These forces and means of the Navy will at best be able to destroy or disable one or two enemy surface ships.

The Iranian ground forces, when fully mobilized, will provide in defensive operations a reflection of the blow of large groups of enemy troops. If these are troops of the most developed countries of the world, such as the USA, operating with the support of allies from the Arab world, then the Iranian Armed Forces will be able to repel the blow of a group of up to 200 – 250 thousand people.

The military-political analysis shows that the existing composition of the Iranian armed forces is in general consistent with today's threats against the country and makes it possible to neutralize them even taking into account not only military, but other factors.

You can swear, fight - no

The potential of the countries of the region, which are open opponents of Iran, does not allow them to oppose independently or even in a coalition. For example, Saudi Arabia, having a powerful technical equipment for the Armed Forces, is significantly inferior in spiritual potential and combat training of troops (which was well demonstrated by the conflicts in which the troops of the kingdom participated). Turkey, having a Kurdish problem in the rear, is unlikely to decide on a war against Iran, even in alliance with the Saudis and other Gulf monarchies. Israel, being an open enemy, is too far from the territory of the main adversary to be able to carry out more or less serious aggression against it with reasonable political goals.

In principle, aggression by the United States is possible against Iran. It may be caused, for example, by Tehran’s active expansion of its influence in the Persian Gulf zone. Such an aggression will most likely be carried out in the form of a large-scale air campaign of the type that took place in Yugoslavia. The US Army will try to avoid action, fearing serious casualties. Such an operation can pursue the goal of complete destruction of the Iranian nuclear complex and destruction of its economic facilities. It will be conducted by a coalition led by the United States. Its main participants can be Turkey and Saudi Arabia, whose territory and military infrastructure will form the basis of the necessary springboard. It is extremely important to involve Pakistan, without which it is extremely difficult to ensure effective impact throughout Iranian territory by tactical aviation forces.

The growing crisis in Europe and the USA themselves, as well as pressure from the international community in the event of a delay in the operation, may force it to collapse before the goals are achieved. That is, perhaps it can end in failure.

To prevent this from happening, the United States and its allies will have to ensure the overwhelming superiority of their air force in quantitative and qualitative terms over air defense and the Iranian Air Force. That is, it is necessary to create a grouping of aviation with a total number of at least 1500 machines, including up to 300 of aircraft wing aircraft and up to 40 – 50 strategic bombers. In addition, the release of 1500 – 2500 cruise missiles is likely, mainly for strategic aviation.

The total amount of cargo that will need to be delivered to the area of ​​the forthcoming hostilities (according to the experience of military operations against Iraq) may exceed two to three million tons. And the total cost of such an operation, according to the most careful estimates, will exceed one trillion dollars. Even for the USA it is very sensitive.

Strikes on Iran will cause a spike in oil prices, which will exacerbate the unfavorable economic situation in Europe and cause a negative reaction from China. At the same time, it is impossible to disrupt Tehran’s nuclear program only by air operations, since its most important objects are located in rock shelters, which cannot be hit even by the most powerful conventional ammunition. And the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable for political reasons.

It will be difficult to create an anti-Iranian coalition today. For all potential partners of the United States, being involved in such a war is fraught with serious aggravation of internal problems.

It is unlikely that it will be possible to hold a resolution permitting an operation against Iran through the UN Security Council. It will also seriously dampen the desire of US regional allies to join the coalition.

That is, Iran has created conditions under which large-scale aggression against it is practically impracticable.
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 3 March 2016 05: 40 New
    Remains nuclear weapons against Iran. And you think the United States will not do this? It will be chaos to all chaos, to which they strive.
    1. just exp
      just exp 3 March 2016 08: 16 New
      if they want to roll it out, Iran has not enough quantitative strength, but their equipment is weak in quality, everything is old, only the tori and so on still represent something, but without a full echelon of air defense they will also do nothing.
  2. andre
    andre 3 March 2016 05: 41 New
    The only thing that chills the ardor of all sorts of ragamuffins "NATO" is the opportunity to lose their flyers, even 10%, from the air defense system of Iran. They probably piss in their pants at the very thought. Because they can buy infantry among Muslim fanatics.
    1. sa-zz
      sa-zz 3 March 2016 06: 01 New
      Definitely, and with thoughts of the presence of the S-300, also
      1. nimboris
        nimboris 3 March 2016 06: 26 New
        ... and run around the ceiling laughing
    2. KCA
      KCA 3 March 2016 08: 03 New
      Yes, it’s not the loss of airplanes that cool the fervor, not even the probability, but the confidence that Iran will begin to drown all tankers in the bay in every possible way, this is much more significant than the loss of airplanes and soldiers
  3. Bongo
    Bongo 3 March 2016 05: 44 New
    Tehran is not scary

    It is unlikely that a full-scale aggression is now possible against Iran, as, say, against Iraq in 2003. But strikes against Iranian targets with cruise missiles and even raids of modern fighter-bombers are quite. And now Iran has no way of repelling them without radically improving the air defense system. The given data on the Iranian Air Force and Air Defense is absolutely not reliable. The publication itself is very superficial with hasty conclusions, from me an article "-".
    1. Professor
      Professor 3 March 2016 07: 31 New
      I will connect to your minus. I read a couple of Abazians and realized what the "strategist" wrote "who understands the intricacies of the region."

      Quote: Bongo
      But the attacks on Iranian targets with cruise missiles and even the raids of modern fighter bombers are quite. And to reflect them without a radical improvement of the air defense system, Iran now has no opportunity.

      Not a single air defense system in the world is capable of repelling "attacks on Iranian targets with cruise missiles and even raids of modern fighter-bombers." It is only intended to reduce damage from takid strikes. And since we know about the quantity and quality of the means of attack of a potential aggressor, even if the Islamic State of Iran spends ALL of its money on air defense, nothing will shine for them, they will simply be crushed.
      1. iouris
        iouris 3 March 2016 11: 31 New
        Saddam and Gaddafi have already been "run over". What's next?
      2. alicante11
        alicante11 3 March 2016 13: 32 New
        And since we know about the quantity and quality of means of attack of a potential aggressor, even if the Islamic state of Iran spends ALL of its money on air defense, they still don’t have anything to shine — they’ll simply be crushed.

        Ayatollahs do not need to spend money. There is such a situation in BV now that when attacking Iran by the United States or Israel, they will have to deal not only with Iran, but also with Russia. And in this coalition, they can’t get off with one air strike. And this is where the number of Iranians will affect, which we can fully equip.
        1. Professor
          Professor 3 March 2016 14: 03 New
          Quote: alicante11
          Ayatollahs do not need to spend money. In BV now there is such a situation that when attacking Iran by the SSA or Иthey will have to deal not only with Iran, but also with Russia. And in this coalition, they can’t get off with one air strike. And this is where the number of Iranians will affect, which we can fully equip.

          Yeah. Russia will stand up for the Islamic state of Iran and unleash the third world war. I believe. lol
        2. Talgat
          Talgat 3 March 2016 19: 38 New
          Quote: alicante11
          will have to deal not only with Iran, but also with Russia

          That's right!

          In the article, by the way, they forgot to mention this factor.

          The main factor of Iran’s stability is the proximity to Russia, Turkmenistan (the recently built railway passes through it) and Kazakhstan (communication through the Caspian Sea and along the railway itself is a joint project of the KZ and Iran.

          If any external aggressor builds up the invasion potential, Russia will have enough time. to transfer across KZ-Iran railway (plus via the Caspian Sea by sea) everything necessary to nullify the threat

          It is very naive to think that Russia "will not fit in" and will calmly watch as the aggressor destroys a friendly neighbor - in fact, an ally

          At the same time - you can even not join the war yourself - Iran has enough human and other resources. It’s enough to simply supply all that is missing and weapons with advisers - and Vietnam will seem to Amers a paradise

          But this is certainly a gloomy scenario - so that it does not come - and so that no one would have the temptation to start an aggression - for this they are fighting in Syria - and supply S-300 to Iran, and build a railway, and set a course for "strategic partnership "translated into ordinary language - friendship and alliance. etc
    2. kapitan92
      kapitan92 3 March 2016 09: 05 New
      Quote: Bongo
      The publication itself is very superficial with hasty conclusions,

      Subscribe! The article ignored another "best friend" of Iran, Israel!
      Israel has a modern and powerful aviation component and it is hard to imagine that in a conflict it will not be involved, like the airfield network of this country. However, air strikes can also be difficult, as it is difficult for aircraft to reach targets. Israel has air tankers that it may need to refuel its planes on a long-distance flight to Iran, and its F-15s and F-16s are undergoing massive training for air refueling. To get to Iran by the most direct route, Israel will have to "sneak" on its planes through Jordan and Iraq. There is no doubt that the issues with Jordan and Iraq will be resolved without any problems with the help of the United States. How can Iran respond in a situation of combined attacks from several directions by the Air Force and cruise missiles? With the current state of the Iranian Air Force and Air Defense - nothing. Air defense will be suppressed in a matter of hours, and Iranian aviation will be destroyed at airfields. In the "far" sea zone, the hope for 3 p / l also does not cause optimism.
  4. Andrey Yuryevich
    Andrey Yuryevich 3 March 2016 05: 48 New
    The armed forces of the Islamic Republic are able to neutralize any non-nuclear threat.
    Iran’s military potential is one of the largest in the Middle East.
    well, yes, well, yes ... we have already seen Saddam's "invincible" army, and Gaddafi ... it is possible to butt with neighbors, but in real business, with real "guys", in a month the ruins remain, even if desired, without a ground operations. K. Sivkov, once again confused warm with soft ...
    It is unlikely that it will be possible to hold a resolution permitting an operation against Iran through the UN Security Council. It will also seriously dampen the desire of US regional allies to join the coalition.
    That is, Iran has created the conditions under which large-scale aggression against it is practically impossible.
    and this is generally a masterpiece "thought"! "Libya was raskherachili", and the UN was not asked, the US wanted to go to the UN .... it all depends on whether the states need it at the moment, or not, if necessary, then the crazy 1500 planes will not be needed ... ( damn, what nonsense ...)
  5. Igor39
    Igor39 3 March 2016 05: 55 New
    With 300 and Armor faster and more they need to put and let them then fight, at least there will be something to see.
  6. Cobra77
    Cobra77 3 March 2016 06: 13 New
    Quote: Igor39
    With 300 and Armor faster and more they need to put and let them then fight, at least there will be something to see.

    In general, Russia does not need a very strong Iran. Rather even harmful. It is still a religious fundamental state with not very small ambitions for the role of a regional superpower. This is now with us on the way. Nobody knows what will happen in 5 years. This is the east ... For us, the ideal option would be a sufficiently combat-ready Iranian army, which is able to inflict serious damage even by the State during the intervention, but not strong enough to dictate its terms in the region. And certainly without nuclear weapons. There are enough Saudis already, who either have or do not have nuclear weapons. They also financed Pakistan's nuclear program, and this gives a lot of room for thought. You just have to remember that Iran is not our friend or ally. And it won't be in the foreseeable future. He's just a fellow traveler. Iran essentially differs from the Saudis only in that it is poorer and it is "our son of a bitch."
    1. Igor39
      Igor39 3 March 2016 06: 26 New
      I think if there is a war in BV involving Iran and the SA, it’s okay, oil will fly up, demand for weapons will increase, and if nuclear weapons are thrown, this oil-bearing region will leave the game for a long time.
  7. Mera joota
    Mera joota 3 March 2016 06: 17 New
    The state of the Iranian Armed Forces corresponds to the state of the Iraqi Armed Forces in January 1991. The author enthusiastically talks about the F-14 which both the cat wept and the living unit flies, not to mention the fact that this is an ancient car known to the alleged enemy to the screw. The same about the MiG-29, which once escaped in horror from the US Air Force to Iran, but like now they can ...
    With regards
    The combat capabilities of Iran’s armed forces are carefully concealed.

    These military capabilities are visible in Syria, putting so many generals is simply incomprehensible to the mind, it seems that the rank of general in a sergeant school is awarded. And if no jokes, then so many dead generals indicate the absence of any controllability of the units, and the US + Israel should be afraid of this army (the author naively believes that Israel will remain on the sidelines)?
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 3 March 2016 06: 21 New
      Quote: Mera Joota
      MiG-29 koi once escaped in terror from the US Air Force to Iran

      It was not the MiGs that escaped, but the "pilots" on them ... the MiGs themselves, they would not run, they are not of those ...
  8. Cobra77
    Cobra77 3 March 2016 06: 26 New
    Well, Iran's combat capability is greatly exaggerated by the speaker. Although they are not Arabs with their carelessness, they do not have much training and technique. Especially with technology. All the same, with a bare heel opposite the "tamahawk" you will not trample. If the United States had the task of gouging Iran into a nut, no problems would arise. Yes, there would be losses, who can argue. But the Yankees should not be considered cowards and whiners. If necessary, they know how to fight. Yes, these are not Germans or Russians of the Great Patriotic War. Here they are, of course, like cancer to the moon. But their army is well equipped, and the training of personnel is high. There is experience in military operations. Yes, mostly with the Papuans, but still there. Iran has no chance if it comes to a serious showdown. Even with some C300, Armor and T-90. It's just that with them they will inflict slightly more losses on the Yankees. Well, you should not count on the intervention of the Russian Federation or China as in Korea or Vietnam. Not those, not there and not then ...
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 3 March 2016 07: 03 New
      Quote: cobra77
      no problems whatsoever.

      Well, yes, first the jamming begins, then all the radio-emitting devices are carried out, and then the hunt for targets begins
      1. just exp
        just exp 3 March 2016 07: 58 New
        with proper command of air defense, flying hunters can become victims.
  9. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 3 March 2016 07: 48 New
    And why does the article say that there are no NATO bases nearby? They are full of them in Saudi Arabia, though not NATO, but staff ..
    1. BARKHAN
      BARKHAN 3 March 2016 12: 28 New
      And what about the Persians with chemical and bacteriological weapons? If you press the weak endlessly, there will always be a way out. Always, something happens for the first time.
  10. Ramzes33
    Ramzes33 3 March 2016 08: 23 New
    I think in the near future military operations in Iran will not be conducted. This is not necessary for the Nobel Peace Laureate Obamych, and the rail of Iran (mountainous-desert) is very difficult to conduct military operations. US resources are getting smaller, hence the news about various threats in the hope of receiving additional funding from the military-industrial complex and the US intelligence community.
  11. shelva
    shelva 3 March 2016 09: 00 New
    So amerikosy - break off!
    1. 0255
      0255 3 March 2016 09: 55 New
      Quote: shelva
      So amerikosy - break off!

      Read the comments above, it is reasonably said that Iran is not as formidable as it is described in the article. Iran's equipment is mostly old, surviving the Iran-Iraq war. MiG-29s are clearly the very first export modifications, NATO has experience in dealing with them after Desert Storm and Yugoslavia. The time of the S-75 air defense system has long passed, they were formidable in the Vietnamese conflict and the Yom Kippur War.
      In the Iran-Iraq war, by the way, the Iranians had problems with spare parts for American equipment, for the 1980s it was not as obsolete as it is today, Ayatollah Khomeini did not hesitate to accept secret assistance from his enemies - the United States and Israel. Do you think the Persians have no problems with spare parts? In the event of a war with the United States, no one will help the Iranians with spare parts.
  12. alicante11
    alicante11 3 March 2016 11: 49 New
    Sivkov just disappoints me.

    The armed forces of Iran, even compared with Iraq, do not even look at 2003.

    By 1990, the Iraqi army was considered one of the most combat-ready in the Middle East. The army of Saddam Hussein numbered more than 1 million soldiers and officers, were armed with 6-6,7 thousand tanks, 5-8 thousand BRMs, BMP and armored personnel carriers, 3-5 thousand towed guns and heavy mortars, 1,5 thousand XNK thousand guns of anti-aircraft artillery.

    In the 2002 year, the Iraqi army numbered about 430 thousand people, the elite Republican Guard, formed from representatives of the tribes of the province of Salah al-Din, the homeland of Saddam Hussein, - 80 thousand people, trained reservists - 650 thousand. In service were 2,2 thousand tanks, 2,4 thousand artillery barrels, 4,4 thousand armored vehicles. The Air Force consisted of 350 combat aircraft and 500 helicopters. There was an extensive network of security services.
    At the same time, Iraq was rolled into a thin pancake twice. What Iran’s resistance to the Americans can we talk about? Against the Saudis and other local clowns - they are drawn out. Israel will spoil a lot of blood, but amers can only resist if we help, then it is real to resist.
  13. Cobra77
    Cobra77 3 March 2016 12: 16 New
    Quote: just EXPL
    with proper command of air defense, flying hunters can become victims.

    Well, they will fill up even a couple of dozen of these hunters, what does it change then? What will the Yankees do around their trousers and run away?