The NATO fighter (Turkey - a member of the alliance) knocks down a Russian bomber. In response, the Russian Aerospace Forces, in cooperation with the Syrian forces, destroy terrorists in the area where our pilot was shot. Some of the militants come from Turkey. Given the critical importance for Ankara of the "black boxes" of the Russian aircraft, special forces groups of the Turkish army were sent to the place. They were probably eliminated by the Russian-Syrian aviation and artillery strikes.
Bridgeheads around the perimeter
NATO is building up its potential at our borders without any intelligible explanation. In the Baltic republics, bases are permanently deployed at which weapons and military equipment are stored for large military units - divisions and brigades, with a minimum number of personnel that maintain and protect this equipment. The main contingents in a short time (within a week) can be transferred by air from the United States and in a few days full-fledged units are ready to begin hostilities. So do not be mistaken about today's contingents of personnel in Eastern Europe.
“Fighters of the Ukrainian special forces are especially important for NATO. Having one language with us, they are indispensable for special operations in Russia ”
The potential of the American tactical nuclear weapons. The re-equipment program of the F-16 and Tornado fighters of the Air Force of the five NATO countries with the equipment allowing the use of the B61-12 bombs is at the final stage and will be completed by the year of 2018. Aircraft of the countries that were previously considered non-nuclear - Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey, Germany and Italy, will become carriers of such weapons. This alone is a gross violation of the NPT. And prospective F-35 fighter jets purchased by some NATO countries were originally designed for use of nuclear weapons as well.
Our military-political leadership is taking emergency measures. Unprecedentedly large financial and other resources have been allocated for the re-equipment of the Armed Forces over the past quarter century. Efforts are being made to recreate the industrial potential of the country, primarily the defense-industrial complex. The patriotic vector in the media and official rhetoric has radically strengthened, which should have a beneficial effect on the moral and psychological state of society, in particular on the citizens' readiness to defend their homeland.
Who do we bother?
Fears of a possible clash with NATO appeared for the first time since Soviet times. The reality of the third world war, in its classical sense, and the need to prevent a catastrophe began at the highest level. The probability of an armed conflict with individual NATO countries and even local wars with them is actively discussed in the expert community. However, everyone emphasizes that Russia is a nuclear power and its potential guarantees us security from NATO aggression. Even recognizing the reality of the armed struggle with Turkey in Syria, experts and politicians are sure that the matter will not come to a full-scale war with NATO - we have a “nuclear club”.
On the other hand, almost everyone recognizes that for the United States, Russia is the main obstacle to global domination. At the same time, Washington is losing its “peripheral strategy”. The Arab Spring ultimately turned out to be a failed operation, and Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict and the successful actions of the Assad army put an end to American influence in the Middle and even Middle East, the influence of our country sharply increases there. Saudi Arabia’s hopes are crumbling to strengthen its position in this region, and Turkey has to say goodbye to the idea of reviving the Ottoman Empire. For these states, the situation is getting worse. Ankara is likely to get Kurdish autonomy in Syria along the southern borders of the country, which actually puts Turkey on the verge of collapse. In Saudi Arabia, given the internal contradictions with the Shiite minority and the confrontation with Iran, as well as the obvious failure of the Yemeni campaign, there is also a high risk of destructive processes that can destroy a relatively fragile state.
Readiness is a matter of time
In such conditions, the likelihood of non-standard, sometimes poorly calculated anti-Russian actions of both the Western elites and Ankara with Riyadh is growing. However, the projected attack is considered, as a rule, in the economic and informational-political aspects, since NATO troops are very sensitive to combat losses. There is no readiness for tough confrontation among the population of these countries, which is largely determined by the lack of an ideology of war. The West today is weak both morally and ideologically. Afghanistan and Iraq showed it.
However, the experience of the 30s of the last century, when the German and other peoples of the fascist bloc turned into cruel aggressors due to the powerful propaganda campaign in a few years, shows that the unreadiness of the NATO countries is very relative. Information warfare technologies have gone far ahead since Goebbels. Therefore, it is not worthwhile to particularly count on the peaceful mood of the population.
Remains the trump card - nuclear weapons. This is a key deterrent. But only under certain conditions. The first is the continuous and reliable operation of the nuclear force management system. Its violation will mean for the aggressor that the threat, even with a nuclear-ready arsenal, is eliminated. The second is the determination of the highest military-political leadership, or rather one person - the president to use it. It is extremely difficult. The third condition is the preservation of combat sustainability by the systems of nuclear weapons. They can be destroyed, captured or neutralized by other means. With ground installations, this will be done by sabotage groups. Strategic aviation is blocked at the airfields. Submarines with ballistic missiles are disabled in the bases.
If you look at the problem from this point of view, then it is possible to develop a scenario in which the key factors deterring NATO from military aggression against Russia will be eliminated. And this means that everything has already been calculated at the headquarters of the alliance.
In order to decide on a direct attack, the aggressor must be sure that, taking into account all the essential factors, he will be able to win with guarantee. With the overwhelming economic and military-strategic superiority of NATO, primarily the United States, in general-purpose forces over the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the creation of conditions for an armed invasion of Russia is as follows:
1. Moral and psychological preparation of the population of NATO countries to conduct a large-scale military campaign.
2. Suppression of the will to resist the ruling elites and the people, the disorganization of government.
3. Neutralization of our nuclear potential, when possible, combined with the disorganization of the military administration as a whole.
If you look at the coverage of Russian issues in the Western media, you can confidently assert that the first of these tasks there seems to be already being actively solved. Measures are being taken to suppress the will of the power elite to resist. This, in particular, the embargo and sanctions lists. It is worth emphasizing that the West is going to restrictions, even causing serious damage to its own economy. This demonstrates the determination to bring the matter to a logical end at any cost.
There is also active work inside Russia. Representatives of the intellectual elite of the pro-Western camp are trying to prove to the president the need to return to the liberal course, the economic strategy of 90. Others - from among the representatives of big business, middle and top managers in federal and regional bodies - contribute to the emergence of problems leading to a significant reduction in the quality of life of the population. Presidential instructions are sabotaged almost openly. The discussion of the only possible way for the revival of industry — a radical increase in the role of the state in the economy — was buried. Moreover, a new wave of privatization is being initiated, now enterprises and objects of strategic importance. Even Uralvagonzavod will have to become private on 25 percent. Foreign participants are actively invited for privatization. There is no doubt that those (or their representatives in Russia) will not remain on the sidelines and, becoming co-owners of defense enterprises, will be able to get not only access to developments, but also the opportunity to influence the industry’s activities. And the planned denationalization of infrastructure, especially transport (major airports and Russian Railways) will allow foreign companies to control the movement of cargo in the interests of the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, extremely expensive and absolutely nothing for the economy are initiated, but projects leading to an increase in social tension, such as biometric passports, which also allow the United States to receive complete and reliable information about the state of our society. That is, the solution of the second most important task - the suppression of the will to resist the ruling elites and the people, the disorganization of government - is in full swing. This is the first stage of the preparation of the military invasion of Russia. It will be completed when, against the background of mass expressions of discontent, federal authorities will be largely discredited, and centrifugal tendencies will gain power and political shape.
Blow to the head
At the second stage, with the transition to the power confrontation of the protesters with law enforcement agencies, the task of collapsing the government and suppressing the will of the ruling elites to resist will be finally resolved. Disorganization of the nuclear force control and airspace control systems will provide the conditions for a direct military invasion.
In the UN, other international organizations, in the media, hysteria will rise about Russia's loss of control over weapons of mass destruction, the threat of its falling into the hands of terrorists. The United States and NATO may well decide to use special operations forces, a squadron, tactical and strategic aviation to physically neutralize Russian nuclear forces, first of all their command and control centers and communications systems. This will be the first stage of a direct military invasion. Under the guise of insurgents, the NATO special operations forces can solve the problem of neutralizing the elements of the control system even in large cities, including Moscow. Such actions are feasible regardless of whether there is a UN mandate or not.
In case of large-scale unrest, the transfer of units and subunits of special operations forces can be carried out by air, by land, and from the sea. Influence agents in Russia will provide favorable conditions for solving combat missions. After the initial neutralization of the nuclear potential, the NATO rapid reaction force will be introduced to consolidate the success of the country’s territory.
Probably, in connection with a similar scenario in the border areas of Russia, the grouping of special forces and rapid deployment forces is growing. Their current small number, as already mentioned, should not be misleading.
What is Ukraine prepared for?
The appearance of foreign troops on the territory of Russia, of course, will cause massive anger of the population, the most active part of which will take up arms. Separate units and subunits of the Armed Forces and the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and other security agencies will independently begin hostilities against the invaders. But their actions will be poorly coordinated. NATO forces will be able to neutralize resistance, probably with little casualties. But this will give a reason to move to the second stage of the war: the massive invasion of Russia.
Scripts worked out in other countries. Initially, an air offensive operation is conducted with the aim of the final destruction of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense. But they will already be disorganized, and such a campaign is most likely not required. For the same reason, NATO is unlikely to expect organized resistance to their ground formations. For operational surprise, the grouping of the invasion is initially formed from the composition of the peacetime forces, possibly after partial covert formation. Its further build-up is carried out as needed.
In such a context, the assertions of Kiev politicians and the military about the possibility of returning the Crimea are completely understandable in a completely different situation. The Ukrainian army will become the most important component of the NATO group. Naturally, after its complete reorganization with the replacement of the current personnel, especially the commanding, with loyal to the West and the current government, which is actively being implemented today. Especially important for NATO fighters Ukrainian special forces. Being identical ethnoculturally, having one language with us, they are indispensable for conducting special actions on the territory of Russia with a preliminary covert deployment of the necessary grouping of forces. The rest of the Ukrainian army will be one of the main components of the first echelon of NATO ground forces, which they will try to use in the most dangerous areas to reduce losses among contingents from Europe and the United States. The same forces can form the basis of punitive units to ensure control over the occupied territories.
Naturally, the peoples of Russia launched a partisan struggle. However, without external support, it will not last long. The indigenous population is likely to be subjected to the most brutal genocide, which no one can resist or even dare to condemn.
The scenario presented is hypothetical, but feasible. There is little chance of its implementation under the current conditions. However, they are. A war between Russia and NATO can be. Not in sight tank wedges of the 1941 model, and in a more complex, complex and multifaceted form, at the first stages, very secretive. Preparing for an attack should be identified in a timely manner and countered in the early stages.