Military Review

Play on nerves

103
Until recently, most residents of the Russian Federation had no particular complaints against Turkey. However, the logic of the conflict makes us think about what will happen if the tension between our countries moves to the plane of direct conflict. Trite comparisons of the forces of the parties to the conflict in terms of number and quality tanksships and planes, like 50 or 100 years ago, give a very distorted picture: suffice it to say that on the eve of 1939 the army of France was considered the “army” of the continent as the “best”, and the USSR was not even included in the top five. So it is today. Truly, these or other armed forces will be visible only in a real war. At the same time, it is much simpler to make forecasts of political relations between the parties, because here the actions of opponents are much more obvious: they are dictated by logic and geography.


Play on nerves


For five months, the Russian aviation made almost impossible in Syria, breaking the seemingly hopeless situation. Approximately the same words can be said of the naval forces, which have demonstrated not only new shock capabilities, but also the ability to supply the group for a long time. Even in Soviet times, such campaigns were very rare, and after 1991 no one dared to think of something similar. At the same time, Russian successes broke the well-known plans of the Sunni powers and provoked an extremely negative reaction from the patrons of the “Syrian opposition”. The transfer of Saudi Arabian F-15 fighters to Turkish airfields by many observers was regarded as preparation for a war with Russia in Syria. F-15 - a fighter for gaining dominance in the air, and it is Saudi cars of this type, which underwent modernization in 2012-13, today are one of the most modern in the world. On February 15, the start of a five-day Saudi-Turkish air exercise was announced, during which the air forces of the two countries will break in coordinated actions. A day earlier, exercises involving 150 troops began in the north of the Kingdom. At the same time, both Ankara and Riyadh, with simply unfriendly rhetoric, switched to the language of outright threats against Russia. For example, Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adele al-Jubair directly stated that it is dangerous to support Shiites in the Russian Federation, in which 20 million Sunni Muslims live.

True, already 16 February from Turkey, which was supposed to be the core of the invasion, sounded notes of uncertainty. They cannot be called dominant yet, because there is clearly a struggle between supporters and opponents of the intervention in the country, but there is definitely no former dashing confidence. Whether the bellicose statements were the original bluff, or the original intervention plans are now hastily adjusted, it is not yet clear. The only obvious thing is that the ground invasion of Syria is still questionable.

So, the first scenario. Russia understands that it and the Syrian government are being driven into a trap, forcing it to stop the destruction of the Islamists. The militants unequivocally use the respite to regroup forces and replenish supplies, and then expect trouble. Awareness of this simple fact makes Moscow and Damascus continue the destruction of terrorists, which is tactically and strategically absolutely true. In response to the actions of Moscow, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are invading Syria. Does this mean that a no-fly zone is no longer important for Russian and Syrian aviation?

The war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even one by one, is an extremely difficult task. And together this is an opponent of quite a serious level, incomparable with any country in the post-Soviet space, with the exception of Russia itself. If such a collision becomes a reality, the transport question will remain a critical moment for our group: namely, how many supply ships Russia will have time to pass through the Bosphorus before the start of the war. It depends on the promptness of the Russian military logistics, as well as on how long the enemies (this term is already appropriate) took the time for their own preparatory activities. In any case, the expeditionary corps of Russia in Syria will be in an extremely difficult situation, and its ability to repel coalition attacks will be exhausted in a few days, after which you will either have to admit defeat, or from the territory of mainland Russia strike directly at the interventionist countries, which will conflict at a fundamentally different level.

Scenario two. Moscow gives in to threats, curtails the bombing and unscrews the hands of the Syrians, so that they stop the offensive. Militants get a breather, replenish supplies, carry out the regrouping of forces. In fact, this is already a defeat. It should be understood that even completely leaving the entire Middle East, Russia will lose, because Ankara and Riyadh, having received their own, will pay attention to the post-Soviet, and then the Russian space itself. In the East, frank weakness is not forgiven, and nobody has canceled banal revenge, let alone objective geopolitical ambitions.

Moreover, the surrender of positions under threat of war will very badly affect the reputation of the Russian Federation in the world. And the reason is not important here. The bell itself will sound loudly and unequivocally from the Arctic to the Caucasus, from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean: “Akella missed.” And then already to try for a tooth the Russian determination will have a desire already very, very many. And, most importantly, all at once. The prospect of an open war with the Turks and the Saudis at once, compared to this threat, is simply child talk.

In fairness, I must say that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are no better than the Russian. Each of these countries leads a hopeless war on its territory. Turkey with the Kurds, Saudi - with the Hussites who invaded from the territory of the former North Yemen. Both of these wars are depleting, despite the fact that not one of these regional powers is close to the Soviet Union at the time of the entry of the 40 army into Afghanistan. The invasion of Syria for Ankara and Riyadh will also be quite a local catastrophe: a new front will require additional resources that still need to be obtained from somewhere.

Actually, for this reason, the allies in the anti-Syrian coalition went to large-scale military blackmail of Russia, in the hope that Moscow would tremble and begin to retreat again. In fact, this is most likely only a large-scale bluff. How this bluff succeeded, will show the very near future. Now we can say that most failed. The paradox of the situation is that in the conditions of direct military blackmail, it is almost safer for Russia to take the risk of war than to show weakness to the whole world for the second time in two years. This simple and unpretentious thought would not hurt to convey through diplomatic channels to the right people who imagined themselves to be the Napoleons of the East.

For now, the actions of Russia can be praised carefully. Nobody gives in to blackmail, attack aircraft and front-line bombers continue to do their jobs. Around the Turkish shelling of Syrian territory raised due diplomatic noise, which is also correct. In the event of an aggravation, it is Turkey that will have the halo of the aggressor in the public opinion of many countries.

Turkey’s invasion of Syria can hardly count on NATO assistance. In any case, legal obligations for such a case are not provided for, since the Alliance formally must stand up only for the victim of an attack. How it will actually depend on the firmness of the Russian position and the readiness to defend your interests by force weapons. The fate of the unfortunate Yugoslavia and Libya, who did not attack anyone, should always remind us what the Alliance is capable of when it feels its own impunity. The weak are always beaten and no contract is valid here.

At the same time, when a collision with a relatively serious opponent loomed on the horizon, NATO found a reason not to get involved. This happened during the invasion of Indonesia into the Netherlands New Guinea or during similar Indian actions against Portuguese Goa. Yes, formally these territories did not fall into the Alliance’s area of ​​responsibility, but the spirit of unity was completely undermined. Surprisingly, in 1975, the annexation of Western Sahara, organized by the authorities of Morocco, has already fallen into the geographical scope of the Alliance, but he did not react at all. If you wish, you can remember other interesting episodes. All of the above does not mean that NATO is an inefficient organization with indecisive leadership - not at all, but a couple of touches to the overall picture of this organization should be added for reasons of fairness. There are other legal subtleties. Military assistance, prescribed in the agreement on the creation of the Alliance, does not imply the mandatory dispatch of troops, but only the provision of military assistance, which may include, say, the supply of fuel or ammunition.

Among other things, in NATO there is such a Trojan horse, like Greece. Of course, this country will not openly stand on the side of Russia, but for some time it will be able to sabotage the work of Alliance structures. Athens has its own interests. If the victorious march to Constantinople is still fiction, then helping Cyprus in the elimination of the Turkish garrison against the background of a general struggle is a quite solvable task.

An additional front for Russia threatens to be the same Ukraine, which in small steps restores its own armed forces for continental war. However, the main problem lies not even in the possible participation of Kiev. More precisely, not only in it. As we all remember, Russia has frozen conflicts almost along the entire perimeter of the borders, with the possible exception of the Arctic expanses. Only officially we are involved in about 5-6 in such conflicts, unofficially this figure can be at least doubled. If we talk about the possibilities of the opponents to create additional sections of tension for the Russian Federation, then we primarily mean the North Caucasus and Transcaucasia. Moreover, the Transcaucasus will be even more convenient for a number of reasons. The outlines of this logic are literally on-line: on February 17, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Georgia, where he met an exceptionally warm reception, and a day later Recep Erdogan was expected in Azerbaijan.

From the very beginning, the actions of the Turkish-Saudi coalition had the features of provocation in order to force Russia to make concessions through threats. But now the Turks were also trapped, the artillery strikes of which caused discontent in the United States and Europe, which in turn actively supported the Syrian Kurds. How to get out of such a difficult situation, Erdogan and his advisers, apparently, have not yet decided. Turkish officials have already managed to make several statements, directly opposite in content, but in any case everything will be decided in the coming days.
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  1. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 18 February 2016 06: 34
    19
    Igor - Another scenario - yesterday’s terrorist attack in Turkey, according to the plan of the authorities, should rally the nation against a certain external enemy, which will be indicated at the right time. ..
    1. Kibalchish
      18 February 2016 06: 41
      +2
      A common thing for these modes. Personally, I believe that on Saturday-Sunday the Turks will launch an attack.
      1. alex-cn
        alex-cn 18 February 2016 07: 18
        +3
        Rather, everything will be limited to shelling, massive stuffing of militants, and threats (attempts?) To create a buffer zone. Without the sanction and participation of the United States, the Turkish-Saudi forces will not dare to do more. The United States has already "smiled" at them, but simply made teeth, but Iran is also nearby ...
        1. user
          user 18 February 2016 20: 30
          +1
          Until recently, most residents of the Russian Federation had no particular complaints against Turkey.


          Well, those who have not read history textbooks and do not even suspect about 10 (ten) Russian-Turkish wars and the problems of the Straits. Their dreams are to buy a house in Turkey and join the world community of equality and fraternity.

          The main thing today for Russia (as the Chinese say) is to save face. Although, for me, the entry of troops by Turkey into Syria by the EP is a secret dream (in the sense of such a setup for Erdogan, many dream).
      2. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 18 February 2016 09: 12
        +4
        Quote: Kibalchish
        Personally, I believe that on Saturday-Sunday the Turks will launch an attack.

        I am more inclined towards mid-March when the weather conditions will be different. Now is the rainy season, the road is eroding.
        1. Ramzaj99
          Ramzaj99 18 February 2016 09: 40
          11
          In fairness, it must be said that Turkey and Saudi Arabia have no better situation than the Russian one. Each of these countries is waging a hopeless war on its territory. Turkey with Kurds, Saudi Arabia - with the Hussites intruding from the territory of the former Northern Yemen.

          In this world, there is only one immutable law, this is the cycle of shit in nature. When you do this to someone, it always comes back to you. Everyone remembers very well how the Saudis and Turks enthusiastically supported the "rebels" in the North Caucasus in the 90s, all funding came from there, plus London. Let them not be surprised now that the Russian Aerospace Forces are in no hurry to bomb the same Kurds.
          PS London will also wait for its piece ......
          1. Talgat
            Talgat 18 February 2016 18: 43
            +5
            I agree - they supported bearded men in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

            I will also add - a quote from the article: "... the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, Adel al-Jubeir, spoke directly that it is dangerous for the Russian Federation, which is home to 20 million Sunni Muslims, to support the Shiites ..."

            In fact, it’s dangerous to support the Saudis - who seem to be Sunnis (like us and Russia) but support Sunni extremists
            But Iran just doesn’t come to us - on the contrary, it helped and helps to maintain stability (1-Afghanistan - in 90-Iran with Russia and Kazakhstan. 2-Caucasus - Armenia is supplied through Iran)

            And yet - the article as a whole is correct and interesting - but it should also be mentioned that not only Russia is under the gun - the aggression of the Turks and Saudis in Syria is primarily a declaration of war on Iran - and it is Iran that will take the most serious steps (as recently stated) Russia's role will probably be in helping Iran and in the air war.

            Considering the latest project - the commissioning of the Kazakhstan-Iran railroad - Iran gets a supply route and is now connected with the "mainland".
            1. Valiich
              Valiich 18 February 2016 20: 51
              +4
              On a direct collision with Russia, none of them will twitch. Zrdogan the headless is indisputable, but he wants to live, and in Islamic Turkey, which means against everything secular. Erdogan's earth is on fire not only under his ass and around is already on fire. It was not in vain that VVP started sudden exercises in the southern military district, i.e. The Russian Federation is ready for any situation, even the always calm Medvedev in Munich told the whole world about it, therefore, before pressing the launch of the "war" in this region, they will all weigh the pros and cons. Obama hints, to them the Turks and the Saudis, with all the signs "to fight you alone," and in general the United States is in agony, therefore, they are pulling Russia. Those. if it comes close to explicit action, then believe me, we will find out everything about it. I think these headless people will not be allowed to play the war. Turks cannot return their former glory. Better calm down!
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. Stirbjorn
          Stirbjorn 18 February 2016 09: 40
          +1
          Quote: Pomoryanin
          I am more inclined towards mid-March when the weather conditions will be different. Now is the rainy season, the road is eroding.

          What is the rainy season in Syria ?!)
          In March, the Americans are planning to carry out the operation with the participation of their airborne division in Iraq. I would suggest that the Turks are just waiting for the Yankees to drag out so that the kneading is stronger.
          1. Pomeranian
            Pomeranian 18 February 2016 09: 55
            +2
            Quote: Stirbjorn
            What is the rainy season in Syria ?!)

            Yes, even this one: Western Syria. The climate of the coastal strip and the windward slopes of the Ansaria ridge is humid Mediterranean. The average annual rainfall is 750 mm, in the mountains it increases to 1000 – 1300 mm. The rainy season begins in October and lasts until March - early April, with a maximum intensity in January. From May to September, almost no precipitation occurs. At low altitudes, this season the weather is uncomfortable for humans: in the afternoon, the air warms up to 30 – 35 ° C at high humidity. Higher in the mountains in summer, daytime temperatures are approximately 5 ° C lower than on the coast, and at night even at 11 ° C.
            http://www.easttime.ru/countries/topics/2/7/45.html
      3. alexander1
        alexander1 18 February 2016 11: 15
        15
        All this may not be! The only question is the will of the political and military leadership of Russia! I think a tough statement on the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an intervention in Syria and an attack on the Russian air forces would be enough! It is only said that this should not be casual, on the head of the country in an official statement and be accompanied by appropriate orders on the transfer of ammunition to the troops of the southern districts from the storage bases of 12 directorates! And it would be nice to show how these ammunition is prepared and put on appropriate media through all federal channels! This will bring a lot of stench in homosmi, but it is guaranteed to save many lives of the Russian military, which may be under attack in Syria! And as the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu said: The best war is to smash the enemy’s plans; in the next place - break his alliances! and the Japanese samurai Miyamoto Musashi, the best fight - which was avoided!
        1. starper
          starper 18 February 2016 13: 28
          +3
          High five bro! I agree with you completely.
        2. serg2108
          serg2108 18 February 2016 18: 17
          +1
          magnificent statement plus would put it to our leaders it would reach drinks
        3. Gulo
          Gulo 18 February 2016 22: 22
          +4
          Not the enemy Turkey to threaten with a nuclear club. It can bring a lot of trouble to us. It turns out that it was we who launched the nuclear war. Our nuclear policy implies a retaliatory strike, but not the first use of nuclear weapons. And this is the right doctrine.
    2. castle
      castle 18 February 2016 12: 48
      -7
      The attack in Istanbul is the Kurdish response to the actions of today's leaders in Turkey. And they both know it.
      The attitude of the Russians towards Turkey would not have changed if massive propaganda had not poured into the brains of the Russians that Turkey supposedly opposed Russia and, therefore, Turkey should be hated. Turkey did not speak. It simply showed that, in neighboring regions, it will protect its interests.
      When you need to bail out money, Russia sells weapons to both Turkey and its "opponent" - Saudi Arabia. When it is necessary to distract its own people from internal problems, the Russian leadership creates the image of an enemy (external and internal) and, in a small, "victorious" war, tries to strengthen the love of its people for their leaders. Preliminarily hedging himself with the law on classifying information about the number of losses in the ranks of their aircraft. Just like we read the Strugatskys, their "Inhabited Island".
      1. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 18 February 2016 13: 11
        0
        Quote: hrad
        Turkey did not speak. It simply showed that, in neighboring regions, it will protect its interests.

        So, according to your logic, if I promise not to blur the disadvantages of Hrad y, and then I suddenly put it. then it’s nothing, in the order of things. After all, I made it possible to show that I have interests, and agreements so zilch ??
      2. starper
        starper 18 February 2016 13: 40
        +1
        In my opinion you are mistaken. Kurds are not aisles. Why the hell do they need to set the whole world against themselves when they beat the Turks in Syria without a terrorist attack? Further, since when has Arabia become our opponent? The weapons that we sell to the Arabs did not intersect ours at all, at least not yet, and the attitude towards the Turks to me personally was not changed by propaganda, but by a downed SU and a shot pilot. Something like this, a former ally.
      3. serg2108
        serg2108 18 February 2016 18: 19
        0
        no one has canceled politics .... but the fact that ours is selling weapons is what everyone does!
      4. Served once
        Served once 18 February 2016 19: 53
        +5
        Dear Czech Friend, Politics is generally a "dirty" thing. The West, led by the United States (NATO, EU and other satellites) forced Putin to play big. You describe and draw your conclusions from today’s day, but the game did not start today or a year ago and not two. The slow-paced game began with the collapse of the USSR, from the time of "timelessness" for Russia. The West has long, stubbornly under various pretexts moved and moved NATO towards Russia. That missile defense against Iran wanted to install (including in your wonderful country) but in the end I settled on the country of a euro-prostitute. You, you and only you forced the GDP to conduct Russian policy in a similar vein. (By you, I naturally summarize the West, not your person). In fact, by returning Crimea, the GDP saved the world, delayed the world (God forbid it starts of course). Neither Russia nor the Black Sea Fleet would have just left there. As for the arms trade: everyone is engaged in this, including the Czech Republic. "Small victorious wars" are also not some kind of innovation of Russia. States and Britain and even the "tie-eater" tried As long as you all together have to thank Putin for the still clear sky. You will continue to probe Him for the ferrous content of male organs, fall back to the situation of 1939. And nobody needs it.
        1. starper
          starper 19 February 2016 04: 02
          +1
          I completely agree with you. :-)
      5. andj61
        andj61 18 February 2016 21: 48
        +2
        Quote: hrad
        The attack in Istanbul is the Kurdish response to the actions of today's leaders in Turkey. And they both know it.

        Yes, not the answer is the Kurds! Seek someone profitable! Are Kurds in Istanbul Terror Benefits? These attacks are just beneficial to Erdogan! yes
        Quote: hrad
        The attitude of the Russians towards Turkey would not have changed if massive propaganda had not poured into the brains of the Russians that Turkey supposedly opposed Russia and, therefore, Turkey should be hated. Turkey did not speak. It simply showed that, in neighboring regions, it will protect its interests.

        We do not have massive propaganda regarding Turkey, there is resentment and anger at Erdogan personally. He portrayed a good relationship, was considered a friend, and hit him in the back. It’s to some extent that they themselves are to blame for having framed themselves by sending an attack aircraft without cover. But this was not expected from the Turkish leader in Russia! Erdogan will leave and relations with Turkey will normalize. Erdogan is trying to identify himself with Turkey. Neither the Russian people, nor Russia have any claims against Turkey or the Turkish people, but only against some not very good representatives of this people.
        Quote: hrad
        When you need to bail out money, Russia sells weapons to both Turkey and its "opponent" - Saudi Arabia. When it is necessary to distract its own people from internal problems, the Russian leadership creates the image of an enemy (external and internal) and, in a small, "victorious" war, tries to strengthen the love of its people for their leaders. Preliminarily hedging himself with the law on classifying information about the number of losses in the ranks of their aircraft. Just like we read the Strugatskys, their "Inhabited Island".

        We sell weapons regardless of interests - this is a business. They will not buy from us - they will buy from others - that’s all. And everything else - even there is no desire to comment. Small and somehow maliciously vile ...
    3. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 18 February 2016 13: 18
      +4
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      Igor - Another scenario - yesterday’s terrorist attack in Turkey, according to the plan of the authorities, should rally the nation against a certain external enemy, which will be indicated at the right time. ..

      Given the fact that the Turkish General Staff does not show activity and a great desire to be drawn into a full-scale war on Syrian territory, yesterday's terrorist attack, according to the authorities' plan, was most likely aimed at stimulating the adoption of the "correct" decision by the military. The choice of the target for the terrorist attack in the person of the General Staff is a confirmation of this, and the lightning-fast work of Turkish experts who found the fingerprints of a Kurdish representative when the smoke had not cleared yet clearly indicates a target for retaliation.
    4. Gulo
      Gulo 18 February 2016 22: 09
      0
      And the enemy has already been indicated right there is the Kurds. After all, there is no one else nearby.
  2. Dimy4
    Dimy4 18 February 2016 07: 09
    +3
    Erdogan and his advisers, apparently, have not yet decided

    It is possible that they have already decided. The attack happened painfully at a convenient time, you can blame anyone.
  3. Minstrel
    Minstrel 18 February 2016 07: 22
    +7
    The war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even one by one, is an extremely difficult task. And already together this is an opponent of a very serious level


    in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the situation is no better than the Russian one. Each of these countries waging a hopeless war on its territory.


    It seemed to me alone that these distinguished phrases carry a certain contradiction in themselves?
    1. rotmistr60
      rotmistr60 18 February 2016 08: 10
      +2
      in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the situation is no better than the Russian one. Each of these countries is waging a hopeless war on its territory.
      It seemed to me alone that these distinguished phrases carry a certain contradiction in themselves?

      Turkey really has problems on its territory (Kurds). But CA still lives almost calmly if you do not take into account losses in Yemen. But I would like the terrorists whom she (SA) had so fostered to move to her territory.
  4. KOH
    KOH 18 February 2016 07: 25
    +6
    "A war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even one by one, is an extremely difficult task. And together it is an enemy of a very serious level."


    Well, the Turks, but the Saudis are still warriors ...))))
  5. Kos_kalinki9
    Kos_kalinki9 18 February 2016 07: 28
    +8
    For some reason, the author does not mention another player in BV. Iran clearly will not stand aside in this conflict.
    1. Generalissimo
      Generalissimo 18 February 2016 10: 33
      +1
      and suggests that before attacking aggressor countries from the Russian territory for some reason, you have to wait a few days.
      1. DMB_95
        DMB_95 18 February 2016 11: 42
        +1
        Unfortunately, the situation is such that they need to be hit first. Then Russia will not be the aggressor. NATO will help the Turks if they are a victim of aggression. We need to make sure that they become a victim of our Reciprocating Blow.
        1. Generalissimo
          Generalissimo 18 February 2016 19: 11
          0
          they already hit first
          1. DMB_95
            DMB_95 18 February 2016 19: 32
            0
            Hit. It's time to answer. Now they are aggressors, Syria is a member of the UN who has been subjected to aggression. Now you can’t hesitate. We must beat without stopping at the calls for a ceasefire.
            1. Generalissimo
              Generalissimo 18 February 2016 20: 47
              0
              The Russian Su-24 was attacked and shot down by the Turks not in Turkish airspace - it was time for a long time.
              Or in order to "answer" it was necessary that he was shot down over Russia?
        2. Evkur
          Evkur 19 February 2016 00: 55
          +1
          Yes, at least ten times they strike first, we lose the world information war. We will love aggressors and the first attackers in the media everywhere except the media of the Russian Federation.
  6. inkass_98
    inkass_98 18 February 2016 07: 28
    +6
    Quote: Dimy4
    The war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even individually, is an extremely difficult task.

    Turkey is quite a serious opponent, but with limited resources, with the exception of human resources. Will NATO help? Officially, it is unlikely that the replenishment will go the same way as the Ruin now.
    Saudi Arabia as a military adversary is simply ridiculous. With a population of about 30 million people. (according to various sources - from 27 to 31,5 mln. people) 10% are immigrants, the army is built on the feudal principle, completely different types of weapons. The results of their military successes can be seen in Yemen - there are practically no situations where these warriors would not receive significant damage from the motley forces of the Hussites.
    Yes, logistics is difficult there, but this can be solved if desired: Iran and Iraq have not been canceled yet, and the Caspian has not yet dried up. Yes, and other sea routes are present.
    By the way, Egypt, as a base, may well be suitable, they will not be very opposed - the role of the leading Arab country has always attracted them.
    1. rkkasa xnumx
      rkkasa xnumx 18 February 2016 08: 30
      +1
      Quote: inkass_98
      Turkey is quite a serious opponent, but with limited resources, with the exception of human

      Quote: inkass_98
      Will NATO help?

      In my opinion, this is the main question. It is NATO’s help / non-help that can fundamentally change the balance of power.
      Therefore, when considering various options, this must be taken into account.
      1. chikenous59
        chikenous59 18 February 2016 08: 49
        +4
        Quote: rkkasa 81
        It is NATO’s help / non-help that can fundamentally change the balance of power

        And if NATO does not help Turkey, then many members of the alliance will think about the expediency of NATO membership. If article 5th is not implemented, then what the .. to them is NATO.
        1. rkkasa xnumx
          rkkasa xnumx 18 February 2016 09: 28
          +2
          Quote: chikenous59
          if NATO does not help Turkey, then many members of the alliance will think about the expediency of NATO membership.
          then what x .. im NATO

          It is truth too.
          Therefore, I think there will still be help. The only question is how much this assistance will be.
        2. Stirbjorn
          Stirbjorn 18 February 2016 09: 47
          +3
          Quote: chikenous59
          And if NATO does not help Turkey, then many members of the alliance will think about the expediency of NATO membership. If article 5th is not implemented, then what the .. to them is NATO.
          Yes, most NATO members do not have much choice. There the United States, almost all of its military potential alone, well, the United Kingdom is still partially. And the USA always acts exclusively in its own interests - if they must surrender everyone. They will come up with an excuse for some allies, they obediently gobble up. The same Baltic states do not care, there’s nowhere to go while they are pursuing such Russophobic policies.
        3. RomanS
          RomanS 18 February 2016 11: 48
          0
          And without NATO, it’s even worse!
      2. kartalovkolya
        kartalovkolya 18 February 2016 08: 59
        0
        What are you lamenting about the balance of power, etc. and so on, but shouldn't we remember the balance of power in the 40s of the 20th century: after all, the whole of Europe and our army did not take our army seriously in the USSR, and what and what is the result ?! that in the EU and NATO there are utter suicides and continuous "downs", but the bulk of our enemies, but sensible enemies, and because of some Turks, whom they do not even want to accept into the EU, are unlikely to agree to participate in the war against Russia (more expensive)! And I also want to remind you how Kerry sent them all with words like, let them not dream that the United States would unleash a "nuclear war" with Russia because of them!
        1. voyaka uh
          voyaka uh 18 February 2016 09: 38
          -13 qualifying.
          for kartalovkolya:
          "but should we not recall the balance of power in the 40s of the 20th century: after all, in the USSR," pearl "
          The West did not take Europe and our army seriously and what and what is the result? "////

          Not all of Europe. The entire Anglo-Sanson world was for the USSR. Including the largest military powers of that time: the USA and England. This is an important caveat. Since the middle of 1942, the USSR had NAVAL in cartridges, shells, bombs, gasoline, and explosives - cartridges and shells did not save (unlike World War I).
          A third of the American military industry since 1943 worked in the USSR.

          This is significantly different from today's situation. Whose military industry will help Russia?
          China? - doubtful. But there are no others.
          1. Ramzaj99
            Ramzaj99 18 February 2016 09: 54
            12
            Quote: voyaka uh
            A third of the American military industry since 1943 worked for the USSR. This is significantly different from today's situation. Whose military industry will help Russia?

            No need to make an American contribution to the overwhelming victory.
            Firstly, they did not help, but traded.
            Secondly, the USA also traded with Germany until the 44th year. (Trucks, gasoline, etc.)
            Thirdly, the big question is, if the Americans hadn’t actively helped Germany before the 39th year, perhaps we would not need their help either.
            And the last, we would have won, maybe a little later, maybe there would have been more victims, but there was no cardinal contribution of the Americans.
            PS Read an interesting book "100 Best Generals of the Second World" by the American publishing house. So, there are only TWO !!! Soviet generals, Zhukov and Rokossovsky, with Zhukov in last place in terms of his contribution to the war. All other American and British generals .....)))))))
            1. voyaka uh
              voyaka uh 18 February 2016 12: 08
              0
              for Ramzaj99:
              "It is not necessary to make an overwhelming American contribution to victory." ///

              I do not claim this. The decisive contribution to the victory was made by the Soviet army -
              there is no doubt about it.

              But when there is no ammunition and shells - even crack, do nothing. No
              heroism will not help. Example: a crisis with ammunition in the Russian army in the First World War. There was also a lot of desire to win, but, alas, there were no opportunities.

              And in the 2-th copper, gunpowder, TNT went continuously from the United States.
              And the Soviet army could advance without thinking about saving ammunition.
              Zhukov: ... the Americans drove us so much material without which we could not form our reserves and could not continue the war ... We received 350 thousand cars, and what kind of cars! .. We didn’t have explosives, gunpowder.
              There was nothing to equip rifle cartridges. The Americans really helped us out with gunpowder, explosives .. "
              1. Pomeranian
                Pomeranian 18 February 2016 13: 12
                +1
                Quote: voyaka uh
                And in the 2-th copper, gunpowder, TNT went continuously from the United States.

                Remind the year of peak deliveries, if not difficult.
                1. castle
                  castle 18 February 2016 14: 27
                  -3
                  And you will unveil the text of the agreement between Russia and Turkey, regarding the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in Syria, if not difficult.
                  1. Pomeranian
                    Pomeranian 18 February 2016 14: 36
                    +2
                    Quote: hrad
                    And you will unveil the text of the agreement between Russia and Turkey, regarding the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in Syria, if not difficult.

                    What kind of nonsense? and where does Turkey, if the agreement between Russia and Syria? The text is large, please get the link. Read and enjoy.
                    http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201601140019?index=0&rangeSize
                    =1
              2. Ramzaj99
                Ramzaj99 18 February 2016 13: 19
                +5
                Quote: voyaka uh
                And in the 2nd copper, gunpowder, TNT went continuously from the United States. And the Soviet army could advance without thinking about saving ammunition

                Yes, no one argues. Traded than they could. And of course they tried to deliver the declared volumes. I would also attribute stew and planes here, it certainly helped in the war, accelerated it, and brought victory closer.
                Only here is the wording: help ....... I don’t call every seller in the store who sold me a can of stewed meat a friend, and I do not thank him for his help .....
                When for your planes and cars, ships with gold and platinum go back: this is trade.
                If at the same time you are trading with the opposite side, then it’s hard to call it help.
                Moreover, the second front was opened only when 100% it became clear that the Russians would take Berlin, and this is more like competition.
                Of course, the supply volumes were huge (for that time), which eased the burden of war.
                But we will not forget that almost all the equipment after the war had to be returned.
              3. The comment was deleted.
              4. yuriy55
                yuriy55 18 February 2016 17: 50
                +1
                Quote: voyaka uh
                Zhukov: ... the Americans drove us so much material,


                It must be borne in mind, however, that in this quote many statements could have been deliberately distorted in order to present the speaker in an unfavorable light and inflate the greatness of America and the significance of its assistance to the USSR, as well as reinforce the myth of the decisive role of the United States in the victory in World War II. ..
                hi
              5. Rivares
                Rivares 19 February 2016 01: 19
                +4
                Quote: voyaka uh
                And in the 2-th copper, gunpowder, TNT went continuously from the United States.
                And the Soviet army could advance without thinking about saving ammunition.
                Zhukov: ... the Americans drove us so much material without which we could not form our reserves and could not continue the war ... We received 350 thousand cars, and what kind of cars! .. We didn’t have explosives, gunpowder.
                There was nothing to equip rifle cartridges. The Americans really helped us out with gunpowder, explosives .. "

                Subtle propaganda! And if the states had not swollen colossal funds in the Reich’s military industry, then the question of the cars (on which the Reich, including the ones who fought with the US Army) and the ammunition wasn’t! And so the states sold the Reich weapons, then they sold the USSR weapons. Both are expensive.
                The losers were captured. They both thanked the States for their "help." Now "help" looks differently like your "truth".
              6. volgroo
                volgroo 19 February 2016 02: 53
                0
                In the last paragraph I agree.
          2. The comment was deleted.
          3. Seraphimamur
            Seraphimamur 18 February 2016 09: 58
            +7
            Judging by your flag, you should not expect any other comment. Of course, WWII won exclusively thanks to the Americans! Ha ha ha
          4. Generalissimo
            Generalissimo 18 February 2016 10: 27
            +2
            A whole third? Did the Americans have such a fragile industry then?
          5. DimYang
            DimYang 18 February 2016 14: 36
            +1
            Quote: voyaka uh
            A third of the American military industry since 1943 worked in the USSR.

            It worked for our gold. Certainly not for us, and who originally financed Hitler? Remind me. Anglo-Saxon, or rather Jewish banks.
          6. serg2108
            serg2108 18 February 2016 18: 22
            -1
            if the mess begins, the use of tactical nuclear weapons by aggressors at infrastructure facilities will reassure everyone, including America!
          7. Stas157
            Stas157 19 February 2016 07: 46
            +2
            And the whole of Europe worked for the Germans, so for some reason no one pretends to them that the Germans could not have fought so successfully without outside help! We alone owe the grave of life to the Americans! They supplied everyone and they won! On the contrary, I would say that they first profited from the war, so much so that all the gold of the world was suddenly in their reserves, and then they took our victory for themselves!
        2. rkkasa xnumx
          rkkasa xnumx 18 February 2016 09: 40
          -1
          Quote: kartalovkolya
          What do you owe it to

          Where did you see the lamentations?

          Quote: kartalovkolya
          Shouldn't we remember the balance of power in the 40s of the 20th century: after all, the whole of Europe is "pearl" in the USSR

          1 On the USSR, not to Russia.
          2 Europe (and even not all), not the USA + Europe. The United States then was just on our side (temporarily of course, but nonetheless).

          Quote: kartalovkolya
          Do you really admit that in the EU and NATO there are utter suicides and continuous "downs" ... because of some Turks ... they will agree to participate in the war against Russia

          Well, the Turks-this is only one of the weapons in the fight against Russia, and not the reason for this struggle.
          1. Generalissimo
            Generalissimo 18 February 2016 10: 29
            +2
            All of Europe except partially Yugoslavia. England is not Europe.
            1. rkkasa xnumx
              rkkasa xnumx 18 February 2016 10: 58
              0
              Quote: Generalissimo
              England is not Europe.

              USE?
              1. Generalissimo
                Generalissimo 18 February 2016 20: 57
                0
                From European Spain, a country like Morocco through a strait of half the width, is it Europe? Dig a tunnel to Iceland - will it also become Europe?
        3. veksha50
          veksha50 18 February 2016 10: 25
          +1
          Quote: kartalovkolya
          What are you lamenting about the balance of power, etc. and so on, but shouldn't we remember the balance of power in the 40s of the 20th century: after all, the whole of Europe and our army were not taken seriously by the West in the USSR, and what and what was the result ?!



          However, there is no need to compare the USSR and Russia at this stage ... The USSR then there were completely different possibilities and methods of managing the economy and politics, effective and efficient ... Only at the expense of this was the USSR able to mobilize its economy and human resources ...
      3. Generalissimo
        Generalissimo 18 February 2016 10: 36
        0
        Maybe so that there are no options left it’s easier to immediately warn that if the Saudis or Turks get into Syria or hook the Russian troops, then they will use nuclear?
    2. 73bor
      73bor 18 February 2016 09: 11
      +2
      Even if NATO supports, Greece will definitely not fit in with Turkey, there is too much antagonism between them, and the rest are too far from the theater of operations, NATO will still consult and consult for a year!
    3. Dimy4
      Dimy4 18 February 2016 10: 00
      0
      The quote above is not my little.
    4. veksha50
      veksha50 18 February 2016 10: 18
      +3
      Quote: inkass_98
      By the way, Egypt, as a base, may well be suitable, they will not be very opposed - the role of the leading Arab country has always attracted them.



      Egypt does not need much hope ... Its double-dealing and variability in foreign policy have long been known, and they are now friends with the Saudis ... It is not for nothing that the Saudis sponsor the armament of the Egyptian army and navy ... They have joint plans to gain leading positions in this region ...
    5. Pomeranian
      Pomeranian 19 February 2016 09: 14
      0
      Quote: inkass_98
      Yes, logistics is difficult there, but this can be solved if desired: Iran and Iraq have not been canceled yet, and the Caspian has not yet dried up. Yes, and other sea routes are present.

      You, in general, think correctly. But there is a nuance: Iran and Iraq also have a Kurdish problem, and will they look through their fingers at the strengthening of Kurdish troops in Syria? Not sure.
  7. KBACYPA
    KBACYPA 18 February 2016 07: 36
    +2
    Saudis generally knock out, in my opinion, quite easy. Gauges for oil fields and Saudis in the place where the back changes its name, and the price of oil will jump a little.
    1. Generalissimo
      Generalissimo 18 February 2016 10: 31
      +1
      something a lot on the Saudi site
    2. RomanS
      RomanS 18 February 2016 11: 51
      0
      If you carefully look at the list of targets in Syria, Libya and Iraq, you will not find oil fields anywhere. Only some storage or traffic flows. Think about why?
      1. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 18 February 2016 11: 54
        0
        Quote: RomanS
        Think about why?

        Light up - put out how? Ecological disaster at least.
        1. Generalissimo
          Generalissimo 19 February 2016 14: 05
          0
          This will be the problem of the Saudis.
  8. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 18 February 2016 07: 38
    14
    Such an attack on Syria without the support of aviation by the Ottomans seems to be a pure gamble. You can swing the scimitar as much as you like, but when the enemy DOES NOT REACT to grimaces and jumps, you have to do something. Either try to slash the enemy, or sheathe the cutting objects and try to reduce everything to a joke (well, this is hardly possible). Yesterday's terrorist attack in Ankara is a possible "Casus Beli" for the Ottomans, organized by them (it is not necessary for the special services to do this themselves, it is enough to turn away in time). But this does not change the essence of what is happening. The Ottomans can suffer a heavy defeat in the border area, but never win. And NATO will not fit in for them. It is a pity, of course, that such scumbags as Erdogan are trying to "try" Russia, but somehow history teaches that until the threats become extreme, Russia prefers to lie on the stove (well, or in a den, as you like). And it was not worth all this pack to wake her up!
    1. Pomeranian
      Pomeranian 18 February 2016 09: 26
      +1
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      , Russia prefers to lie down on the stove (or in the den, as you like more

      The main thing is to keep the marmots away from politics.
  9. Kibalchish
    18 February 2016 07: 52
    -2
    Quote: Minstrel
    The war with Turkey or Saudi Arabia, even one by one, is an extremely difficult task. And already together this is an opponent of a very serious level


    in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the situation is no better than the Russian one. Each of these countries waging a hopeless war on its territory.


    It seemed to me alone that these distinguished phrases carry a certain contradiction in themselves?


    The USSR waged a hopeless war in Afghanistan. At the same time, it was a leading power militarily. The same is with the USA. What is the contradiction?
  10. Sergey Sitnikov
    Sergey Sitnikov 18 February 2016 08: 25
    +1
    It infuriates that China and Iran are silent - Iran would declare intolerance of the Sunni military aggressions, and China could send a couple of ships to maintain peace in the region ...
    1. Pomeranian
      Pomeranian 18 February 2016 09: 25
      +5
      Quote: Sergey Sitnikov
      Enrages that China and Iran are silent

      China does not care about Russia from a high bell tower. Iran is waiting, only the sanctions have been lifted from them and it’s not clear what time to get into it again? Like it or not, Russia remains face to face with NATO.
  11. Ruslan Shevela
    Ruslan Shevela 18 February 2016 08: 48
    -5
    We see the contours of this logic literally online: on February 17, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Georgia, where he met an exceptionally warm welcome, and a day later they will receive Recep Erdogan in Azerbaijan, but he’s been sucked out of his finger! Azerbaijan is a friend and partner of Russia, do not be afraid of surprises from Baku
    1. RomanS
      RomanS 18 February 2016 11: 54
      +1
      Ruslan, your optimism inspires! Unfortunately, Azerbaijan is trying to conduct "its own" policy, like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and something like Ukraine.
  12. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 18 February 2016 09: 03
    +1
    Well, Erdogan "ignites", just a real Leninist student, like you need to get involved in a fight, and then we'll see! It seems that it will be visible to everyone, except for Erdogashki himself, whom the Turks themselves will let into the minced meat, because any defeat always requires the culprits, and he comes first!
  13. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 18 February 2016 09: 16
    0
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I do not share the author’s skepticism. In the end, we have dad bomb and powerful delivery vehicles. KSA in any case can be turned into a complete desert. Yes, and Turkey, too. The East must be taught only by force, qualitatively and for a long time.
    Several dozen "dads" may not be required to donate them to oil fields and strategic objects. smile
    Correct me if I am mistaken.
    1. starper
      starper 19 February 2016 01: 23
      0
      Why are you all crazy? What are dad bombs? Are they attacking us? If nuclear weapons were used for every shot down, the floor of the planet would already be in ruins. Remember in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis shot down Rutsky, and so what? Even the USSR was a stronger power, and even that did not put on the agenda the question of the use of nuclear weapons.
  14. Pomeranian
    Pomeranian 18 February 2016 09: 22
    -1
    Interesting look at things, article plus. According to forecasts, I will add my own three kopecks. Currently, Saudi Arabia does not fight with its ground forces. Instead, mercenaries, including those from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador, are fighting with the Yemenis, while the regular troops remain at their bases. Something, but the Saudis have a lot of cut American paper. What can seriously affect the Saudis is an uprising of the Shiite minority on its territory or a direct military threat from Iran. But both of these options are unlikely. In Turkey, things are more complicated, every day in the east of the country the Turks lose two or three servicemen killed and one or two pieces of equipment (this is not from a finger, but from the newspaper Voennoye Obozreniye). Russia's option to avoid war is to extend the Moscow Treaty of 21 years, and to massively supply the Syrian Kurds with modern weapons.
    Logistics. Here things are generally very bad, the Turks block the straits at a time. But there is a small nuance that no one takes into account - Israel. In my opinion, the Russian Federation has relations with Israel in the best over the last 60 years, so the supply for the group in Latakia will go from there.
    Regarding the imminent defeat of the ground parts of the Russian Federation. For some reason, the author does not take into account the fleet. Its power is enough to turn into garbage all the Turkish bases closest to the border. NATO is unlikely to fit in with the Turks. There is simply nothing for European countries, but the USA? I'm not sure that the current administration of the GTA is sacrificing everything for some inadequate Asians.
    1. veksha50
      veksha50 18 February 2016 10: 37
      +2
      Quote: Pomoryanin
      In my opinion, the Russian Federation has relations with Israel in the best over the past 60 years, so the supply for the group in Latakia will go from there.


      Israel will help Russia maintain the Assad regime in Syria by providing its territory (and air-sea space) for military-logistic operations ??? Will give east fantastic ...
      1. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 18 February 2016 11: 04
        +3
        Quote: veksha50
        Will give east fantastic ...

        Nein. Does Israel really need an inadequate Islamic state at its borders, or let a shaky but sane Assad sit in Tel Aviv, who think that they are full of helmets in Tel Aviv? And Jews do not like Turkey very much. Remember the incident with the ship?
        Shl. The Israeli air defense system has included all Russian Air Force aircraft in the identification system as "its own". A trifle, but nice.
        1. veksha50
          veksha50 18 February 2016 14: 35
          0
          Quote: Pomoryanin
          And Jews are not very fond of Turkey.



          Nuuuu ... like Syria and Assad ...

          PS And about the planes of our VKS - plus Israel ... How many of our former people are there ... So to speak, the lobby ...
          1. Pomeranian
            Pomeranian 18 February 2016 14: 40
            +2
            Quote: veksha50
            Nuuuu ... like Syria and Assad ...

            I believe that a little more than Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi ...
          2. Kaiten
            Kaiten 18 February 2016 21: 16
            +3
            Quote: veksha50
            Nuuuu ... like Syria and Assad ...

            To be honest, Assad is not loved anymore, but we fear more than Erdogan.
        2. Kaiten
          Kaiten 18 February 2016 21: 14
          +2
          Quote: Pomoryanin
          Shl. The Israeli air defense system has included all Russian Air Force aircraft in the identification system as "its own". A trifle, but nice.

          Exaggerating a bit. Even Israeli civilian aircraft are not included in the Air Force recognition system and they strictly have their own air corridors. To say that Israel has included military planes of another state in its system is a little wrong.
          1. Pomeranian
            Pomeranian 19 February 2016 09: 18
            0
            Quote: Kaiten
            To say that Israel has included military planes of another state in its system is a little wrong.

            How then will the Israeli air defense react to an intrusion into the airspace of a foreign aircraft, if it responds to a request of “friend or foe” with “alien?” What if it’s not a Russian plane, but a kamikaze-IS?
            1. Kaiten
              Kaiten 19 February 2016 14: 33
              +1
              Quote: Pomoryanin
              How then will the Israeli air defense react to an intrusion into the airspace of a foreign aircraft, if it responds to a request of “friend or foe” with “alien?” What if it’s not a Russian plane, but a kamikaze-IS?

              There are generally accepted communication frequencies; an airplane is warned by radio if its course is related to a possible border crossing. Each aircraft is tracked from the moment it appears on the radar. If the aircraft does not respond, then various countermeasures are possible.
      2. Kaiten
        Kaiten 18 February 2016 21: 19
        +3
        Quote: veksha50
        Israel will help Russia maintain the Assad regime in Syria by providing its territory (and air-sea space) for military-logistic operations ??? Will give east fantastic ...

        In fact, the situation would have greatly improved if Russia had exerted its influence on Iran and it would have changed its policy towards Israel to a more moderate one, and so Israel is actually being forced to build relations with Saudi Arabia.
        1. Nonik
          Nonik 19 February 2016 22: 51
          0
          Quote: Kaiten
          In fact, the situation would have greatly improved if Russia had applied its influence on Iran and he would have changed his policy towards Israel to a more moderate one.

          Yes, it seems that Iran is not threatening Israel publicly, has subsided.
  15. Hooks
    Hooks 18 February 2016 09: 31
    -2
    The game on the nerves ... Yes, they even heard a steel ring when the GDP goes !?
  16. Aleksander
    Aleksander 18 February 2016 09: 47
    0
    Moreover, the surrender of a position under the threat of war will very badly affect the reputation of the Russian Federation in the world. And the reason is not important here. The bell itself will sound loud and unambiguous from the Arctic to the Caucasus, from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean: "Akella missed."

    Unfortunately, the bell rang long ago when Putin said: "Let them try!" and- did NOTHING. All this was very well noticed and remembered, although the authorities themselves pretend that this, as it were, was not .....
  17. flaw
    flaw 18 February 2016 10: 22
    -1
    Yes, let the Turks just rock the boat. We will take Istanbul with one landing regiment. The very same with which our great commander Grachev was going to take Grozny.
  18. Vyatsky
    Vyatsky 18 February 2016 10: 40
    +5
    Unfortunately, the bell rang long ago when Putin said: "Let them try!" and- did NOTHING. All this was very well noticed and remembered, although the Russian authorities themselves pretend that this would not have happened ..... [/ quote]
    Putin said this about Turkish aviation. It does not fly to Syria, otherwise it would have been trumpeted to the whole world.
    Modera! Why is my left flag again? I am from the Kirov region.
  19. koshmarik
    koshmarik 18 February 2016 10: 53
    +3
    At one time, many in the West, and some in our country, after using cruise missiles and strategic aviation of the Russian Armed Forces, reproached Russia for demonstrating muscles, intimidating neighbors, etc. Life has shown that everything was done correctly and in a timely manner. If it weren’t for this, by the way, forced demonstration of power, the Turks would have invaded Syria long ago, and now Erdogan is scratching his turnips hard - it’s understandable, NATO will not get involved in solving personal affairs of the Erdogan family, and Turkey is shot at from all sides - from the Black and Mediterranean seas, from Armenia and Syria, from the airfields of Engels and Mozdok. I think that we will not swing with scimitars and janissaries, but Turkey’s military infrastructure will be gouged for a week.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 18 February 2016 11: 22
      +1
      Quote: koshmarik
      I think that we will not swing with scimitars and janissaries, but Turkey’s military infrastructure will be gouged for a week.

      Oil from the CPC terminal in Novorossiysk what to do next?
  20. Andryukha G
    Andryukha G 18 February 2016 11: 04
    -1
    Yesterday, near his general staff, Erdogan launched a terrorist attack (by analogy with the twin bananas and Pearl Harbor) to launch a large-scale war with Syria.
  21. ozon34rus
    ozon34rus 18 February 2016 11: 18
    0
    Quote: Ruslan Shevela
    We see the contours of this logic literally online: on February 17, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Georgia, where he met an exceptionally warm welcome, and a day later they will receive Recep Erdogan in Azerbaijan, but he’s been sucked out of his finger! Azerbaijan is a friend and partner of Russia, do not be afraid of surprises from Baku

    From Turkey, we also did not expect surprises.
  22. Belousov
    Belousov 18 February 2016 11: 22
    0
    Nato can't help but respond. The question is how they will respond. Staff members will not quickly get involved in the war, the rest need even less, even stubborn sprats and kaklams. Therefore, everything will be limited to constant consultations and other chatter. By the way, paragraph 5 of the Nato Treaty does not imply military assistance, it says that each country will determine what and when will be able to help, so there will be idle talk for another month, and then they will send a green tank and two bags of bandages.
  23. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 18 February 2016 11: 41
    +1
    Today wars are won by those who think better, anticipate and use ALL possible non-military means to achieve their goals, even before the war. The clash of the armed forces is already the final part of the war.
  24. Robert Nevsky
    Robert Nevsky 18 February 2016 13: 13
    +1
    GLORY TO RUSSIA! GLORY TO VLADIMIR THE GREAT!
  25. starper
    starper 18 February 2016 13: 52
    +1
    I do not understand, here that some "hawks" gathered or what? Someone's fists itch? And my son is 22 years old. He just started living, and what can I tell him, God forbid, go sonny, protect the interests of our Gazprom and Rosneft? Should we answer the Turks but bring them to war? Are you fucking sitting on the sofas !!!
    1. Achilles
      Achilles 18 February 2016 16: 54
      +1
      What is there to understand and everything is clear, it’s necessary for each of us to prepare for war morally, but God willing, if necessary, we’ll all go not for Gasprom and Rosneft, but for our mother Russia
      1. starper
        starper 18 February 2016 17: 34
        0
        So it seems that nobody attacks us. They grit their teeth, so you don’t get used to it, I see no other reasons for the war.
    2. KOH
      KOH 19 February 2016 06: 01
      +1
      What kind of Gazprom! He has no parents, brothers, sisters, in the end the land on which he was born and raised? ... You apparently teach him how to encrypt from the army, so to speak, you are bringing up a real "patriot" ...
  26. Pomeranian
    Pomeranian 18 February 2016 13: 59
    0
    Quote: starper
    I do not understand, here that some "hawks" gathered or what? Someone's fists itch? And my son is 22 years old. He just started living, and what can I tell him, God forbid, go sonny, protect the interests of our Gazprom and Rosneft? Should we answer the Turks but bring them to war? Are you fucking sitting on the sofas !!!

    Turkish Embassy in Moscow
    Address: 119121, Russia, Moscow, 7-th Rostov Lane , 12
    Phone: (+ 7 095) 246-0009, 246-0010
    Fax: (+ 7 095) 956-5597
    Any questions at this address, please.
    1. starper
      starper 18 February 2016 14: 16
      +2
      I have not heard the calls of the official Ankara for a war with Russia. Therefore, keep your links to yourself. Also me "eroy".
      1. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 18 February 2016 14: 21
        0
        Quote: starper
        Something I did not hear official Ankara calls for war with Russia

        So Moscow’s call for war with Turkey sounds in your home from every iron?
        1. starper
          starper 18 February 2016 14: 48
          0
          It was you who sent me a link to the Turkish embassy, ​​I just expressed my opinion about the Sabbath that is going on in the comments, as it is not disgusting to you, I have the right.
          1. Pomeranian
            Pomeranian 18 February 2016 15: 00
            0
            Quote: starper
            I just expressed my opinion about the Sabbath that is going on in the comments, as it is not disgusting to you, I have the right.

            Of course you have. But Russia did not attack Turkey. The plane was shot down by the Turks. And the fact that the war is not far off is 90% and nothing depends on the comments on the site.
            1. starper
              starper 18 February 2016 16: 09
              0
              I have no doubt that you are more knowledgeable than me, but God forbid that you would be mistaken. Regards, Yuri.
      2. Kaiten
        Kaiten 18 February 2016 21: 23
        +1
        Quote: starper
        Something I did not hear official Ankara calls for war with Russia

        And no one will call, just when Turkey brings down another plane (and this all goes to that), there will be no other way out than to start military operations against it.
        1. Rivares
          Rivares 19 February 2016 01: 58
          +1
          Quote: Kaiten
          just when Turkey knocks down another plane (and this all goes to that), there will be no other way out than to start fighting against it.

          Whose hands ???
          1. Kaiten
            Kaiten 19 February 2016 14: 35
            +1
            Quote: Rivares
            Whose hands ???

            Su-24, she hit with her hands?
  27. Docent1984
    Docent1984 18 February 2016 16: 55
    0
    "than to show weakness before the whole world for the second time in two years."

    Does it hurt me alone? What is the author about?
    1. starper
      starper 18 February 2016 17: 29
      0
      Apparently about the downed plane. The situation is, of course, "bamboo" and I would not want to be in Putin's place at that moment, but it seems to have been sorted out, but crookedly, obliquely, but sorted out. It's a pity for the guys, but I think they would understand.
      1. Kaiten
        Kaiten 18 February 2016 21: 28
        +1
        Quote: starper
        Apparently about the downed plane. The situation is, of course, "bamboo" and I would not want to be in Putin's place at that moment, but it seems to have been sorted out, but crookedly, obliquely, but sorted out. It's a pity for the guys, but I think they would understand.

        I think this is Putin’s mistake. The first mistake was that attack aircraft without escort of fighters sent for an operation near the Turkish border, although the day before Erdogan threatened to start shooting down Russian planes, and the second mistake was that the Turks did not respond by shooting down their plane. They now feel their impunity and attack on the second plane, only a matter of time.
        1. starper
          starper 19 February 2016 00: 53
          +1
          It is strange to hear this from a person who lives in a constant war, maybe your sense of self-preservation has dulled? To bring down their plane you need to invade their airspace, as you imagine it? Are they going to shoot from slingshots? And in general, everyone considers himself a strategist, well, then you know.
          1. Kaiten
            Kaiten 19 February 2016 14: 44
            +1
            Quote: starper
            It is strange to hear this from a person who lives in a constant war, maybe your sense of self-preservation has dulled? To bring down their plane you need to invade their airspace, as you imagine it? Are they going to shoot from slingshots? And in general, everyone considers himself a strategist, well, then you know.

            Because I live in a permanent war, I know that this cannot be forgiven. You have been given an exam, you tickled your abdomen, perhaps from a European point of view you acted intelligently, turned away and stopped talking, but here in BV, this is clearly perceived as weakness. That's why I say, attacking another plane, a matter of time. But most likely the Turks will deliver an artillery-missile strike at your base.
        2. Pomeranian
          Pomeranian 19 February 2016 09: 21
          +1
          Quote: Kaiten
          The first mistake was that attack aircraft without escort of fighters sent for an operation near the Turkish border,

          Obama GUARANTEED neutrality on behalf of all of NATO. Who knew that Recep would demolish the roof completely?
          1. Kaiten
            Kaiten 19 February 2016 14: 47
            +1
            Quote: Pomoryanin

            Obama GUARANTEED neutrality on behalf of all of NATO. Who knew that Recep would demolish the roof completely?

            Too reminiscent of the notorious, "Stalin believed Hitler that he would not attack the USSR." How Putin can trust Obama, without a careful analysis of the relationship between Obama and Erdogan. Erdogan completely disregards Obama.
            1. Pomeranian
              Pomeranian 19 February 2016 15: 12
              0
              Quote: Kaiten
              Erdogan absolutely does not reckon with Obama.

              Actually, an agreement was reached not between specific people-presidents, but by Russia and a coalition led by the United States, which included Turkey.
              1. Kaiten
                Kaiten 19 February 2016 18: 05
                +1
                Quote: Pomoryanin
                Actually, an agreement was reached not between specific people-presidents, but by Russia and a coalition led by the United States, which included Turkey.

                well now Putin has made sure that Erdogan is not keeping his word. And he wanted to spit on a signed document. So what? The stormtrooper pilot can’t be returned.
                In any case, the fact that the fighters did not accompany the attack aircraft is a commander’s mistake. There is a war, not ceremonial maneuvers, where all the actions of the parties are known in advance. But in war everything happens and you have to be ready for everything.
                1. Pomeranian
                  Pomeranian 20 February 2016 09: 28
                  0
                  Quote: Kaiten
                  But in war everything happens and you have to be ready for everything.

                  Absolutely all the options cannot be calculated. I believe that the sane members of the Russian government have lost all illusions about the observance of various treaties and agreements on the part of the "enlightened West".
                  1. Kaiten
                    Kaiten 21 February 2016 00: 07
                    0
                    Quote: Pomoryanin
                    Absolutely all the options do not count.

                    To do this, there is an operational department at headquarters and its analysts must work. As they say, someone’s feat is always associated with someone’s miscalculation.
  28. Vovan Batkovich
    Vovan Batkovich 18 February 2016 21: 50
    0
    And I sincerely believe that Russia should apologize to the Turks ...

    Just like this, take and write on the rockets: "Grant us, Erdogan!"
  29. Man1
    Man1 18 February 2016 23: 50
    0
    Quote: hrad
    The attack in Istanbul is the Kurdish response to the actions of today's leaders in Turkey. And they both know it.
    The attitude of the Russians towards Turkey would not have changed if massive propaganda had not poured into the brains of the Russians that Turkey supposedly opposed Russia and, therefore, Turkey should be hated. Turkey did not speak. It simply showed that, in neighboring regions, it will protect its interests.
    When you need to bail out money, Russia sells weapons to both Turkey and its "opponent" - Saudi Arabia. When it is necessary to distract its own people from internal problems, the Russian leadership creates the image of an enemy (external and internal) and, in a small, "victorious" war, tries to strengthen the love of its people for their leaders. Preliminarily hedging himself with the law on classifying information about the number of losses in the ranks of their aircraft. Just like we read the Strugatskys, their "Inhabited Island".

    Unfortunately, we have few sane people like you. Alas, the Kremlin propaganda machine,
    turned us into controlled masses. It's a shame, a shame!
  30. gammipapa
    gammipapa 19 February 2016 00: 19
    0
    The Kremlin propaganda is perfectly correcting us zombies, but how else to control millions of people ??? ALREADY PASSED when each individual, to the extent of his depravity, imposed all nonsense on the people. Like I’m smart, I know for sure, I’m a free person, and you are slaves. Doesn't it remind Ukraine? not ? How many times it happened to face Ukrainians - they are exactly all individuals, they know everything in advance, no propaganda acts on them, they jump to themselves and jump, whoever is where.