If Damascus falls, will not find it
Following the results of the September talks in Moscow, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the chiefs of the general armies of the armies of these states, Gadi Aizenkot and Valery Gerasimov, headed a special working group (AWG), whose task is to jointly resolve certain tactical issues. In this case, we mean the provision of the AHWG conditions under which the Russian and Israeli aviationacting autonomously, they would not interfere with each other in fulfilling the tasks assigned to them. According to foreign media publications, in recent years, the IDF’s Air Force (Israel Defense Forces) launched several attacks in Syria in order to destroy the Iranian and Syrian weaponson the way to the Hezbollah depositories, a Lebanese Shiite organization that a number of states of the world consider to be terrorist. Israel carries out intensive intelligence monitoring of what is happening in Syria.
MISTAKES DO NOT ARISE
It is significant that shortly after the talks between Putin and Netanyahu in Moscow, the deputy head of the IDF general staff Major General Yair Golan met in the Ministry of Defense building in Tel Aviv with his Russian counterpart Colonel General Nikolai Bogdanovsky. According to the agreements reached, the meeting of deputy chiefs of general staff of both armies will be held every two weeks.
The authoritative Spanish newspaper El Pais (“The Country”), often speaking with analytical articles on international topics, devoted a large article to the meeting of the Israeli and Russian leaders. In particular, it states that Netanyahu went to Moscow with the intention of receiving guarantees of non-contact of Russian and Israeli interests on Syrian territory, and he succeeded. ” The article emphasizes that "the recent deployment of Russian defense systems in Syria has caused Israel’s legitimate concern, but Putin has taken steps to create a mechanism to control the situation in order to avoid misunderstandings."
Moreover, according to the author of an article in a Spanish newspaper, “the situation for Israel is much better than Netanyahu could hope for.” “Syria is not able to open a second front and at the same time maintain its existence as an independent state,” underlines El Pais, “as for Hezbollah, an irreconcilable enemy of the Jews, it is not able to get anything serious from the weapons” . Jerusalem would have agreed with this assessment of the Spanish newspaper, with one proviso: Hezbollah will not receive “anything serious from weapons” if it is not given such weapons. Indeed, Lebanon, in which the Hezbollah militants are entrenched, does not produce any weapons, and if “serious weapons” fall into the hands of Shiite militants, it is only through Syria, where it comes from Russia and Iran. However, according to EL Pais, “Iran, Iraq and Syria suddenly find themselves tied by Russia into a single center of confrontation between the“ Islamic State ”(IG), where there is no place for opposition with Israel.” The observer of the Qatari pan-Arab television channel Al-Jazeera goes even further in his assumptions when he says that “Russian intervention will lead to a gradual rapprochement of Israel with the Assad regime, since the Israeli leadership is currently interested in its continued tenure ".
But this is only one side of the coin. The other is determined by the fact that Hezbollah can easily attack the Jewish state, not even counting on victory. In this regard, a very knowledgeable Israeli columnist Ronen Bergman writes in the pages of the most popular local newspaper Yediot Ahronot (Latest News): “Now Hezbollah is in the worst position in its stories, and it spurs its leader Hassan Nasrallah. The only option he sees to strengthen his position is to prepare and carry out the third Lebanese war against Israel. ” Therefore, General Oren Shahor, the former IDF coordinator in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), speaking in the program “Israel for a week” on RTVI, recalled that Assad, like Father Hafez and Bashar’s son, kept the Israeli-Syrian border locked. For years, this frontier has been the most tranquil for Israel. ” In this regard, General Shakhor said: “In the current confrontation in Syria, Israeli preferences remain on the side of Bashar al-Assad, an undoubted opponent of the Jewish state, but observing the agreements reached.”
WHY ISRAEL NOT INVITE TO COALITION
Of course, in Jerusalem, they realize that the radical Sunni ISI does not attack the Jews just because it is mired in a fight with the Shiites. In general, the inter-Arab clashes are not visible either end or edge. Nevertheless, if the Jews are forced to fight with the Arabs (in this case it does not matter, with Sunnis or Shiites), then, of course, almost the entire Islamic world (it’s not possible to talk about Arabic) is not at all on Israel’s side. That is why in 1991, after Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait, when the United States created multinational anti-Saddam forces, Israel was not invited to this coalition, but it was strongly recommended not to respond to the soon-to-be firing of the Iraqi Scuds. Moreover, there were no casualties among the Israelis. Of course, Jerusalem had to step on its own song. Israel is not accustomed to leave the shelling unanswered. But then there was a special case. After all, if the Jews responded with a blow to the Saddam blow, the coalition organized by the United States, which included such countries as Great Britain, France, Spain, Australia, Argentina, Italy, Czechoslovakia (while still united) and others fell apart. Because the same multinational forces of a quarter of a century ago included such Muslim states as Egypt, Syria, Oman, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Niger, Morocco, Turkey, Senegal, Sierra Leone.
Time changes a lot, but not the attitude of the Arab street towards the Jewish state. Egypt and Jordan have long concluded a peace treaty with Israel. And what? The mood of the Arab street in relation to the Jews, the rejection of the Jewish state in general has not changed. Therefore, in Washington even now they did not want to take risks and offer Jerusalem to join the White House-initiated coalition against the IG (a terrorist group banned in Russia). Again, due to the fact that, apart from the Americans themselves and the English, Germans and French who immediately joined them, the new coalition also includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. In Moscow, the idea of joining Jerusalem to a coalition consisting of Russia, Syria, Iraq and Iran, all the more could not be considered, because the Tehran ayatollahs openly call for the destruction of the Jewish state.
Nevertheless, global politics is not determined in Tehran at all. There is no doubt that today there are special relations between Moscow and Jerusalem, due not only to the fact that more than a million former citizens of the USSR live in Israel and several hundred thousand Israelis who also have Russian citizenship. Moscow and Jerusalem, despite the different visions of Israeli-Palestinian relations, could not fail to develop a unified approach to Islamist terrorism. Nor can we dismiss the trusting personal relations that have been established between Putin and Netanyahu. And this fact is of particular importance against the background of the Israeli leadership’s rejection of the overseas White House, which is not even veiled, but by direct pressure on it.
The civil war in Syria began in March 2011. Until November 2012, Israel’s military operations were in no way affected. However, then the shelling of the territory of the Jewish state began. If the shells reached Israeli cities or settlements, then the IDF artillery immediately hit in response. Moreover, the Israeli responses were interpreted by the government Syrian army in favor of the rebels, and the rebels, whatever organizations they belong to, respectively, in favor of the army of Bashar al-Assad. The Israelis did not remain indifferent to the wounded Syrians, both military and civilians - a “field hospital” was deployed in the border area. It got Syrians who needed medical assistance. And nobody paid any attention to the political preferences of the victims. In some cases, injured Syrians were transported to Israeli hospitals. So, by December 2014, the Israelis provided medical assistance to more than a thousand Syrian citizens. Approximately 40% of the Syrian wounded were treated in a field hospital, and the rest in the Ziv Medical Center in the town of Safed, in northern Israel.
In Jerusalem, they are well aware that in the case of the fall of Damascus and the seizure of power on the territory of the recently recently sovereign Syrian state, the militants of the Islamic State and other Islamists, the reckless winners will not spare anyone - neither those who were completely loyal to the oath and the government, nor the various so-called moderate secular. Islamist radicals have already shown to the whole world that they know how to organize a massacre on a confessional-clan basis. In the event of such a tragic development of the situation, dozens, if not hundreds of thousands of people will rush to the territory of the states bordering on Syria, who will have only one desire - to save their family and themselves. Stop such a flow of people will be difficult! Almost impossible! In this regard, I remember the “black September” of 1970, when Palestinian militants led by Yasser Arafat tried to seize power in Jordan and were completely defeated by the royal army. In a panic of 150, thousands of defeated Arafatovs fled to Lebanon, and several groups (at least two thousand militants) wade into the Jordan and surrendered to the IDF servicemen. In other words, they, the militants, preferred imminent death from their Arab brethren to captured by sworn enemies.
Syria is torn to pieces
Palestinians always keep their slingshots at the ready. Reuters Photos
According to "Aman" (Israeli military intelligence), the northeastern regions of Syria ceased to exist as part of a single state. There, various Islamist rebel committees and even outright bandits seized power. From 185 thousand square meters. km of the recently existing Syria (the territory of the Jewish state is almost nine times smaller), President Bashar Assad controls no more than 18%. But it is there that almost 80% of Syrians live, most of whom fled from the Islamist murderers who occupied the cities and towns in which they had recently lived.
The command of the IDF and the leadership of the special services of the Jewish state instead of the word "Syria" now uses the Arabic "sham", which in the classical Arabic means "north." In the VII century, after the territory was seized by the Byzantine Empire, which was called in antiquity and now Syria (the word has Latin origin), it was renamed “Sham”. (By the way, in related Arabic Hebrew the word "sham" means "there"). More recently, the acronym “Daash”, meaning “Islamic State of Iraq and Sham”, is used now, but now it is more correct to call this terrorist entity, which seeks to subjugate the whole world to itself, simply “Islamic State” (IG).
AMAN and Al-Mukhabarat Al-Amma (Saudi General Intelligence Service) are not trying to get extended information about the current leader of the IG Abu Bakr al-Bagdali. It is known that he is brunet, he has brown eyes and olive skin. He was 44 of the year, he taught physics first in Iraq and then religious disciplines. Much less is known about Muhammad al-Julan, the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra (Front for Helping the People of Syria), another terrorist organization. It is important to keep in mind that both of these groups emerged from the “depths” of Al-Qaida. Al-Dzhulani was considered for some time an assistant to the future leader of the IG, but when al-Baghdadi refused to obey the current head of al-Qaeda, Aiman al-Zawahiri, Egypt’s 64-year-old doctor, he was left with Jabhat al-Nusra is correct. Ayman az-Zawahiri could not help but respond to the will of al-Baghdadi. He did not go to an armed conflict with the "apostate" az-Zavahiri, but simply deprived him of his rank of emir and the position of head of the Iraqi branch of the organization. Al-Baghdadi responded to such “administration” with his “administration”: without hesitation, without asking anyone, he proclaimed himself caliph (governor, deputy), the highest Muslim title. So he headed the IG.
It is impossible not to draw attention to the following fact: al-Baghdadi from February to December 2004 was contained in the American camp Bukka (named after the American firefighter Ronald Bukka who died 11 September 2001 in New York). However, in an unknown way, in the 2004 year (according to other data, in the 2009 year) he found himself in Iraq already free.
“Jabhat al-Nusra” (read “al-Qaeda”) and the IG - tough nuts. In fact, we are talking about international terrorist networks that are constantly replenished by militants of various kinds. Israeli columnist Yossi Melman in the article “Syria: The End of the State”, published in the popular newspaper “Maariv”, draws attention to the fact that Syrian President Bashar Asad, “having put a lot of effort in the fight against Al-Qaeda,” long ago realized that he is dealing with a cohesive international alliance of terrorists and murderers on the high road. In the West, they didn’t believe him at first, just as they didn’t believe a little earlier that not a nation, but a handful of bandits rebelled against Gaddafi’s power in Libya. ” Yossi Melman stresses the obvious: “... both Assad and Gaddafi were right, not mistaken about the hand of Al-Qaeda. The opinion of observer Melman that “it is difficult to determine the difference between ISIS’s actions in Iraq and Syria” is worthy of attention. Jerusalem Post’s commentator Caroline Glick, who accuses the West of “refusing to recognize the IG and other jihadist groups in a powerful, deep-seated ideology supported by a large part of the Muslim world,” also shares Melman’s point of view. In fact, AMAN analysts denote the actions of jihadists as something unified, occurring practically on the same geographical area - the Syrian-Iraqi one. Hence the conclusion that a blow to the IS in Syria should be followed by a blow to the IS in Iraq.
According to an employee of the Jerusalem Center for Public Relations, Yoni Ben-Menachem, at the end of August this year, al-Baghdadi publicly addressed the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the oldest Islamic fundamentalist organization, to join the IG and take an oath of allegiance to the Caliph he created . Al-Baghdadi understood very well whom he appeals to. After all, the MB and the IG share the same ideology, their goal is the creation of a global “caliphate”. The proposal of the IG leader has already been accepted by such groups as “Ansar Beit al-Makdis” (“Supporters of the Holy House”) in Sinai, “Boko Haram” (translated from house language - “Western education is sinful”) in Nigeria and others. They somewhat modified their names to emphasize the leadership of the IG. In January of the current 2015, the proposal of the IG to join them was accepted by the leading preacher of MB 89-year-old Yusuf Kardawi, President of the International Union of Muslim Scientists, whose voice is heard by millions of Muslims around the world.
The US Air Force and Coalition-led aviation, led by Washington, continue to attack the positions of the IG in Syria and Iraq. But the success of these bombings does not correspond to the efforts and the money spent on them. The attacks of the Russian military space forces led to more visible results. Military expert of the Israeli Russian-language newspaper "News of the week, ”David Sharp explains this fact by saying that Moscow“ receives the lion's share of information about targets from its Syrian allies. ” According to Sharp, unmanned aerial vehicles and at least one Il-20M electronic reconnaissance aircraft are used for search and target designation. The “Shell-C1” anti-aircraft missile and artillery systems and the latest Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system were also delivered to Syria. Off the coast of Syria is a detachment of Russian warships fleet led by the cruiser Moscow, which has in its arsenal a long-range air defense system, namely the ship’s version of the S-300 Fort. David Sharp dismisses idle fabrications about the alleged transfer of the land S-300 and S-400 to Syria. At the same time, an Israeli military expert calls the strike of the Russian Navy 26 Caliber cruise missiles at targets in Syria, inflicted from the Caspian Sea, called "without exaggeration, historical." Indeed, in this case we are talking about a missile, which can be considered as a kind of Russian response to the American Tomahawk cruise missile.
KURDAS AGAIN TREATED
Completely vague policy in relation to the IG holds Turkey. On the one hand, Ankara, which has declared its alliance with Washington, and, not wishing to openly demonstrate its uncivilization, formally opposes the IS. However, the main goal of Ankara has remained unchanged for more than a decade - not to allow the Kurds to create their own independent state. It is impossible to call this approach as vile such an approach of the current Turkish leadership. After all, the Kurdish militant Peshmerga (“going to die”) remain the most effective military force in confrontation with the IG.
Observer for the NRG website of the Maariv newspaper, Arella Bar writes in one of the last issues of this publication: “Obama allowed Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to attack the Kurds under the pretext of a war with IS. Obama was well aware that Turkey was primarily interested in suppressing Kurdish resistance .... The world remembers the mediocre actions of the Obama administration in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. We remember his visits to Israel. His sympathetic statements about Israelis suffering from Hamas’s rocket terror constitute complete discord with his real actions in the region. ” Arella Bar believes that "Obama's foreign policy has suffered a complete fiasco," while "Russia's status in the international arena has increased." From the foregoing, Bar makes the following conclusion: "From now on, we have entered a new post-American era." It is clear that the term “we” means not only Israel and not even the Middle East. It is about the end of the era of a unipolar world, when one country, undoubtedly powerful and even great, could impose its political will on the majority of states of the world. And after all, nothing particularly good came of it. Now came the new era. Let's see what she brings.
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