Analysts considered two options for the development of conflicts: "in the zone closest to China, that is, the conflict over Taiwan, and the far zone - over the strategically important Spratly Islands, claimed by six states, including the PRC."
In the end, they recognized that in two decades, the PLA had evolved from a large but poorly armed mass into a capable modern army. The ten parameters analyzed were as follows:
«The ability of the Chinese to attack the US Air Force base. Analysts say that China is able to hit the nearest American airbases with short-range ballistic missiles, which they have about 1,4 thousand. Even a small part of this arsenal is enough to disable the base for several weeks, so the American aviation will have to fly long distances from bases in Alaska, Hawaii and Guam. According to this parameter, analysts note a slight superiority of China in the conflict in the near zone and parity when it comes to the far zone.
Air superiority. Currently, half of China's fighter aircraft are equipped with fourth-generation aircraft. This in itself has reduced the gap between the capabilities of the two countries. However, if prior to 2010, US superiority was overwhelming, now, according to the report, there is parity in the near zone and a slight superiority in the US in the far zone.
The ability to penetrate Chinese airspace. The development of the Chinese air defense system has made it much more difficult to operate in China’s airspace or near its borders. In 1996, Chinese ground-to-air missiles were mostly replicas of old Soviet-made systems. By 2010, China put into service about 200 installations with a more complex target search system with a range of up to 200 km. The capabilities of the US Air Force, equipped with stealth technology, still allow them to penetrate the airspace of China. However, while in 90 it was possible to talk about the superiority of the United States, now there is parity in the near zone and a slight superiority of the United States in the far.
The capabilities of the United States to attack the base of the Chinese Air Force. High precision development weapons gave the US a number of advantages and opportunities that can be used during a possible conflict over the island of Taiwan. As a result, according to this parameter, Americans have an advantage in the near zone and a significant advantage in the far.
China's ability to fight US surface ships. Analysts state that the armed forces of the PRC have reached such a degree of combat capabilities that they could threaten US aircraft carriers with anti-ship ballistic missiles. Despite the fact that these missiles are vulnerable to missile defense systems, American generals now have to realize that the Chinese have opportunities to attack aircraft carriers, and these opportunities will only increase. In addition, the Chinese have a better situation with intelligence, including satellite. In addition to ballistic anti-ship missiles, the American command should also take into account the improvement of Chinese submarines with cruise missiles and torpedoes, the report concludes. So here, analysts have come to the conclusion that China has a slight advantage in the near zone and parity in the far zone.
China's ability to fight US surface ships. Analysts state that the armed forces of the PRC have reached such a degree of combat capabilities that they could threaten US aircraft carriers with anti-ship ballistic missiles. Despite the fact that these missiles are vulnerable to missile defense systems, American generals now have to realize that the Chinese have opportunities to attack aircraft carriers, and these opportunities will only increase. In addition, the Chinese have a better situation with intelligence, including satellite. In addition to ballistic anti-ship missiles, the American command should also take into account the improvement of Chinese submarines with cruise missiles and torpedoes, the report concludes. So here, analysts have come to the conclusion that China has a slight advantage in the near zone and parity in the far zone.
US capabilities to attack Chinese warships. The US military is making great efforts to prevent the landing of a Chinese landing force on Taiwan. According to the report, US submarines, airplanes and ground forces would have destroyed up to 40% of the Chinese landing ships, after such losses the landing group would not be able to preserve integrity and unified management. However, China is improving anti-submarine helicopters and ships, and continues to build up the grouping of amphibious ships. China’s amphibious capabilities have doubled since 1996. However, in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, the United States will have superiority here, and in the far-field zone this superiority will be even greater.
US capabilities to counteract Chinese space systems. While China is increasingly dependent on satellites, and in addition, information is being received on the development of weapons capable of destroying spacecraft, the United States began to fund the development of anti-satellite weapons from 2002. In addition, it is reported that the US is developing high-energy laser systems to disable the optical sensors of Chinese satellites, and ballistic missiles to shoot them down.
China's ability to counter US space systems. China conducted several tests of kinetic anti-satellite missiles. In addition, China is developing laser systems that can damage satellite equipment. According to the report, the threat to American satellites is estimated as significant. In both of the last parameters, the authors of the report consider the forces of the parties approximately equal.
Cyberwar. Despite the fact that the US government has repeatedly been subjected to serious attacks by hackers supported by the PRC, the report shows that there are no particular problems with the US computer networks in the event of a conflict. As, however, and China, despite a certain advantage among the Americans.
Nuclear stability. This parameter evaluates the state of the country's nuclear forces in the event of a nuclear strike on it and, accordingly, the ability to strike back. China is constantly developing its nuclear forces and is putting into service new ICBMs, in particular DF-31 / 31A and modernized DF-5. The Chinese Navy received a sea-based ballistic missile JL-2. Despite this, the number of US warheads refers to the Chinese as 13 to 1, so China has no way of delivering an unanswered blow. ”
Commenting on the report by US researchers, Vasily Kashin, a Russian military analyst and editor of the Moscow Defense Brief magazine, noted that the PLA’s military capabilities have indeed grown, and to such an extent that they are superior to those of the United States.
“Even in the area of the Spratly Islands, the Chinese already have an advantage due to the fact that they are constantly present in the region, and the Americans must be forced there by forces from around the world. In addition, the Chinese have asymmetric capabilities associated with their large fleet of modern and high-precision ground-based missiles. In this region, the Chinese are indeed an extremely dangerous adversary for the United States. A collision will have unpredictable results. Already at greater distances the Americans will have an advantage on a global scale. But near its borders, China can challenge anyone. ”- concluded Kashin.