The London-based European Leadership Network Analytical Center published a report, from which it follows: the increasing frequency of exercises of the Russian army and NATO in strategically important regions is a sign that both sides "keep military plans in mind." At the same time, experts ignored the "potential difference" of Russia and the alliance. Western media rushed to interpret the report as an indication of the growing aggressiveness of Moscow.The British European Leadership Network (ELN), which positions itself as an organization advocating multilateral nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, prepared the report “Preparing for the Worse: Do Russian and NATO Military Doctrines Increase the Likelihood of War in Europe?”.
Center experts: Ian Kearns, Lukas Kules and Thomas Frere analyzed in detail how the recent large-scale Russian exercises with 80 thousand people and NATO with 15 thousand people took place in March and June 2015, respectively.
As noted by Deutsche Welle, the authors of the report state: despite the statements by officials that the exercises in both cases are directed against a purely hypothetical adversary, in fact "Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible clash with Russia."
“Each side in its teachings is clearly fighting against a possible adversary in the face of the opposite side, keeping military plans in mind,” the Financial Times quoted the report. The London edition, among other things, recalls the recent speech by the ex-President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev, who declared that the world is on the verge of a new cold war.
It should be noted that, despite the pacifist image of the European Leadership Network, among the experts of the London Center there are retired military or analysts related to national security issues. In particular, one of the co-authors of the report, Lukas Kules, in the past is the deputy head of the State Security Service of Poland. ELN Director Ian Kerns worked with the joint parliamentary committee on national security strategy, and also advised Lord George Robertson (UK Secretary of Defense in 1997 – 99, NATO Secretary General in 1999 – 2003) and Lord Paddy Ashdown, the former High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina .
Apparently, the third co-author, Thomas Frere, acted as a specialist in Russia. As explained on the official website of ELN, this expert on Russian politics and unrecognized states was trained under the joint program of the University of Kent and the Moscow Higher School of Economics (Master's program in International Relations in Eurasia). It is also alleged that during his studies in Russia, Frere was a research associate at the Center for the Study of Central Asia and the Caucasus at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences - in any case, the expert is presented on the website of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London.
Cards tell the truth?
Interactive maps are attached to the report, illustrating scenarios and deploying exercises. The ELN emphasizes that both Russia and NATO are focusing on the most vulnerable from their points of view regions. NATO concentrates on the Baltic countries and Poland, and Russia on the Arctic, the North, Kaliningrad, the "annexed" Crimea and its borders with the countries - members of NATO Estonia and Latvia. Attempts to follow the teachings of each other, according to the authors of the report, manifest themselves in numerous "interceptions" and the approach of air and sea vessels of the parties to the territorial space of each other.
An unscheduled test of readiness took place in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from March 16 to March 21, where the main emphasis was placed on working out actions in the Arctic, RIA was reminded.News". The exercises involved the forces of the North fleetThe Western Military District and the Airborne Forces - about 80 thousand military personnel, thousands of ground military equipment, dozens of surface ships, submarines, planes and helicopters.
From June 8 to June 19, on the territory of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the North Atlantic Alliance Saber Strike-15 took place, the main purpose of which was to work out the coherence of actions for fighting in international union operations. Saber Strike maneuvers are part of a series of exercises of the North Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe under the common name Allied Shield: BALTOPS, Saber Strike, Noble Jump and Trident Joust.
“The teachings of the parties have similar characteristics. Among them are rapid mobilization and redeployment of forces over long distances while maintaining combat readiness in redeployment areas, as well as air and sea ground support during general exercises to ensure prevalence in air and sea space, ”representatives of the European Leadership Network say.
"Russia has always behaved without restraint"
At the same time, there are serious differences between the exercises, the report’s authors believe. “There is a noticeable difference in the scale of the teachings of Russia and NATO and between their programs as a whole. Although the Russian exercises that we analyze are largely based on elite units, such as airborne troops, the ability of the Russian armed forces to mobilize thousands of draftees inevitably manifests itself in exercises of such magnitude that small and predominantly professional armed forces of NATO cannot match, ”emphasize the ELN.
It can be assumed that in this way British analysts lead to a rather strange conclusion about the superiority of Russian military power over the combined power of NATO. In any case, London's The Financial Times, quoting the report, calls for practical conclusions. “Russia is increasing the combat readiness of its units in order to send a certain signal to NATO. Russian technology has proven that it can redeploy with much more ease than NATO does, the British edition underlines. “The Alliance has to reckon with this, not to forget that Russia is a full-fledged rival ... This means that NATO may be required to have much more intensive and large-scale exercises,” the publication stated.
One of the authors of the study, European Leadership Network’s scientific director and former deputy director of the Polish State Security Service, Lukasz Kules, stressed that an “escalation of military exercises” had taken place earlier - for example, in 2013. But then, according to Kulesa, NATO during the exercises did not imply Russia as a potential enemy, the operations of the alliance along its eastern borders were limited until the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. And only after the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” maneuvers began to be carried out more intensively, says the Polish-British analyst. Russia, according to Kules, behaved less restrained before.
Atmosphere of fear and tension
“In the current atmosphere of distrust, military exercises can provide food for even greater uncertainty, which creates a practically classic illustration of the“ security dilemma ”in international relations,” the report’s authors pointed out. In their assessment, this translates into an increase in unpredictability, when upcoming exercises are not reported in advance.
The researchers stressed that while each side may indeed seek to strengthen its defensive ability, the opponent interprets the exercises as a provocation and a deliberate aggravation of the crisis.
The FT, relying on the excerpts of the report, summed up that Russia and NATO are preparing for a full-scale confrontation, perhaps even war with each other, that they hurried to put in the title of the article. However, we note that in the European Leadership Network are not so categorical. “We are not saying that war is inevitable. But we are concerned about the current situation, when both parties are uncertain about the “true” intentions of each other and begin to act in accordance with the worst scenario, ”explained Lukas Kulesa.
“The changed nature of military exercises is a fact, and it plays its role in maintaining an atmosphere of fear and tension in Europe,” said the director of the European Leadership Network and also one of the report’s authors, Dr. Ian Kearns.
“It is vital to strengthen communication with NATO”
Following the analysis of military exercises, the authors of the report made several recommendations addressed to NATO and Russia. “First of all, it is vital to strengthen communication between Russia and NATO in the matter of planning exercises. Secondly, both parties should use the OSCE channels as much as possible, as well as the existing catalog of confidence- and security-building measures, including the Vienna document, aimed at ensuring predictability in the military sphere, ”the report says.
In their opinion, politicians on both sides should analyze the “pros and cons” of intensifying the conduct of border exercises.
“If Russia or NATO at some point wants to reduce tensions and demonstrate restraint regarding the scale and scenarios of the exercises, then this could be a good start. Finally, it is necessary to begin as soon as possible a conceptual work on a new treaty that would stipulate territorial restrictions on the deployment of certain categories of weapons and which would be supported by strict checks, ”the authors note.
"Not just nostalgia"
Meanwhile, the confrontation between Russia and the West is growing, German publication Bild reported. The reason was the photos from the exercises of the Russian bomber aviation in the Kaliningrad region in early August, where “On Berlin!” was written on one of the training bombs of the An-26 plane, and “For Stalin!” on the other.
The fear of the journalist Bild reinforced the fact that the exercises were held just 500 kilometers from the capital of Germany, he pointed out that as part of the mentioned fees, the Russians for the first time in 20 had been practicing the bombing of the An-26 military transport aircraft. The slogans “To Berlin!” And “For Stalin!” Were widely used during the war of the Red Army against Nazi Germany, Bild recalled. Now, according to German journalists, Russia is campaigning to glorify Soviet times and draws parallels between the struggle against fascism in World War II and the modern confrontation with the Western world against the background of the conflict in Ukraine. The corresponding inscriptions at the present time are not just a manifestation of nostalgia, but also "demonstrate dangerous tendencies in the Russian leadership and the army," Bild concluded.
However, it should be noted: not all representatives of Germany are concerned about the confrontation with Russia. Recall that in late July, Germany’s Permanent Representative to NATO, Martin Erdman, said that Berlin had a long-standing dispute with the Allies about the resumption of political negotiations between the North Atlantic Alliance and Moscow.
Indicative report
Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Policy, Admiral, ex-commander of the Black Sea Fleet Vladimir Komoyedov in his comment to the VIEW newspaper noted the ostentatious nature of the report of the British Center.
“The thesis that Russia has previously behaved inconsiderately, which is contained in the report of the British center, does not correspond to reality. First of all, NATO is preparing for war with Russia, and not vice versa. Moscow is only responding. Russia has never shown aggressiveness towards NATO and has always sought contacts for joint interaction. Moreover, Russia tried to ensure reliable security in Europe, ”said Vladimir Komoyedov.
According to Vladimir Komoyedov, another conclusion of the report is also somewhat embellished. “Russia has never conducted aggressive military exercises. The sudden checks that are now being conducted in the Russian armed forces are the very essence of military affairs. Suddenly Napoleon came, suddenly Hitler came, suddenly NATO came to our borders. We must make sure that the army is ready to fulfill its obligations by pressing one button, ”the military said.
“It is necessary to restore the relations that developed before the crisis. On the Russian side, everything is there, we are ready. There are no positive steps on the part of NATO and, above all, on the part of its leader, the United States. They are the ones who are in charge of the parade, ”the interviewee concluded.
"NATO fulfills the scenarios of war with Russia"
Igor Korotchenko, a military expert and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, said in an interview with the VIEW newspaper that “Russia is not preparing for a war with NATO, because all the exercises conducted by the Ministry of Defense are strictly defensive in nature.”
“As for the NATO military exercises, they are offensive in nature. An analysis of military plans and exercises shows that the NATO leadership is planning and working out a war against Russia. These plans include the occupation of Kaliningrad, the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet, and the use of tactical nuclear weapons. weapons US key objectives in Russia, “- said Igor Korotchenko.
According to the military expert, the proposal to strengthen the communication of NATO and Russia through the OSCE should not even be discussed. “The OSCE is an absolutely stillborn organization. This is clearly indicated by the situation in Ukraine. If NATO wants to strengthen relations with Russia, then it was not necessary to interrupt the main communicative body - the Russia-NATO Council. This is an absolute substitution of concepts, ”added the source.
“NATO is working out real scenarios for waging war with Russia using American tactical nuclear weapons. We do not do this. Therefore, it is absolutely clear who is the aggressor and who is not. In addition, it is NATO that hosts missile defense systems near Russia. Moscow is forced to respond to this. But NATO’s military infrastructure is approaching our borders, and not vice versa, ”concluded Igor Korotchenko.