Syria: scenarios for the end of the crisis in the Middle East
The outcome of the Syrian crisis is becoming increasingly visible. Given the importance of this Middle Eastern country, the whole arsenal of means relevant in this situation will be used. The most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.
Dry presentation news On the results of the visit of the President of Turkey Gul to Saudi Arabia, of course, not informative. Among the topics of conversations with King Abdullah in his palace in Jeddah are “regional problems”. "... It is noted that the Syria topic came to the forefront during the talks. Issues relating to the situation in Yemen and Bahrain were also discussed. The parties expressed concern about the events taking place in Syria. President Gul also received the Foreign Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister Saudi Arabia, Prince Naif. During this meeting, issues related to the cooperation between the two countries on security issues and the fight against terrorism were discussed ... "
Considering the general situation and the fact that the final decisions on Syria have not yet been clearly made, any detailed information and details will be clearly unavailable. That is why it is quite difficult to evaluate an opinion that is voiced from the opposite camp. The website of the Moscow Shiite organization Ahl-Beit, referring to the opinion of the “representative of the Russian Federation to NATO”, said that “... Saudi Arabia has declared its readiness to allocate $ 50 billion for any military operations against Syria ...” Frankly, I do not know another representative of the Russian Federation to NATO except D. Rogozin. And I have not yet found his statements about such an event. The amount in question is generally so large that it is simply technically impossible to keep it in the cellars of the news. But - not yet.
Therefore, this information can not yet be considered as reliable. However, another detail voiced by the site is more similar to the truth. "... in the current conditions, Turkey and Saudi Arabia hold different views on the approach to the reforms in Syria. Riyadh is in favor of holding NATO military action against Syria, and Ankara is in favor of a political solution to the situation in Syria ..."
This, in fact, is not just similar to the truth, but most likely it is. Turkey has reason to want a change in the ruling regime in Syria. Moreover, it will facilitate this process as soon as it can. However, the Turks are not torn to fight what is called "head on". There are two reasons. The Syrian army is comparable in power with the Turkish. You can argue in detail - but the war will not walk. Turkey is being pushed into a one-on-one clash. What is unacceptable for her. As part of the coalition - no question. With the support of NATO and its direct participation in the conflict - Turkey will participate in this conflict. Not even because she wants to, but because she will not allow someone to solve their problems in the adjacent territory outside of their participation. But alone - bad nemae.
The second reason is Iran. Iran will very favorably react to the actions of Turkey against the Kurds - and even from its side, without any doubt, will support any actions of Turkey in northern Iraq. But Syria is not. Here Iran will be obliged to fit into the conflict. There is no direct reason for risking a relatively acceptable relationship with Iran for Ankara. 50 billions - if there is even a grain of truth in this information - this is not for current military spending. This is the proposed compensation precisely for the losses and for the break with Iran. The Saudis are vitally interested in isolating Iran - therefore, I would not be in a hurry to immediately reject information about these fantastic billions.
In my opinion, the development of events depends on factors external to the region. The first factor. The legitimization of intervention. In other words, a UN Security Council resolution. The second factor. Effective NATO military assistance. And at least insignificant - but the participation of NATO countries in the coalition against Syria. Sending aircraft carriers. Transfer aviation. Formation of ground grouping. The third factor. Neutralization of Iran. Tying it in a parallel conflict. Without these factors, Turkey will not get involved either in war or in conflict with Syria. And here questions arise.
The first factor. Resolution
In order to get a resolution on Syria, the United States, Britain and France will have to unscrew the hands of Russia. With her consent to abstain from voting, China will automatically abstain. I have repeatedly pointed out a characteristic feature of Chinese diplomacy - in the Security Council, China never voted alone on issues that do not directly affect its security. There is one such question - Taiwan.
Twisting the hands of Russia is not easy. Syria is not Libya. Reputational losses will be enormous. Russia automatically drops all relations with Iran. The position of President Medvedev (and Prime Minister Putin, who is unequivocally positioned as a shadow president) will be seriously shaken in the pre-election half year. The surrender of Syria will require an explanation. Nevertheless, the problem of arm twisting exists. I think that the process will take place through the pressure on Gazprom. It is Gazprom that is interested in liquidating the pipeline system going from South Pars through Iraq and Syria. Yes, the main consumers of this stream are in the south. But nothing will prevent the cunning Iranians on the Syrian coast from rebuilding a gas liquefaction plant and threatening Gazprom’s interests in southern Europe with LNG supplies. Only the danger of Libyan LNG supplies has been eliminated - and here you are.
In general, my opinion is that the pressure on Russia will go both in the traditional direction - to offer assistance in elections to Medvedev personally, and by using pressure on Gazprom. In what form - I do not know. Quiet, backstage or loud with fanfare - I can not say. But there is a chance for that.
However, the term is small. The resolution must be taken maximum until the end of September. Spend such gigantic efforts and retreat before the semi-collaborationist regime in a semi-colony? Hard to believe.
Factor two. NATO
NATO assistance today excluded. NATO hangs in Libya. And tightly. Even with the resolution on Syria in hand, NATO can only help the Turks to help the Turks. Any equestrian squadron of Poles or a diving parachute company of Balts. There is no one else. The only chance is to end up with Libya. Until mid-September - the edge. At any cost and for any money. In the end, the Saudis can fork out if they need it.
Therefore, I think that in the near future military strikes on Libya will intensify. If with Russia and her agreement to skip the resolution grow together - Libya will be ironed simply brutally. The time factor will be decisive. I do not presume to assume - I think that before the nuclear weapons will not come. Not the case. But everything else will be applied - and most likely, America will have to connect itself and directly.
Factor three. Iran
Turkey will not rush into Syria without having guarantees of Iran’s non-intervention. Turks will be obliged to demand from the West to neutralize Iran. How - let the Pentagon think. His head is big. Whether it will be a naval operation, whether it will be a conflict with Iraq, whether the Saudis will send their fighters does not matter. I think that the most likely and most acceptable way to tie Iran’s hands is a sharp activation of the Kurdish Union fighters in the province of Suleymaniyah on the border with Iran. And the conflict between them and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. At the same time, experts from Arabia, Qatar, Europe and the United States may well fight on the side of the Kurds. Yes, and in Iraq today there are quite enough private military organizations with solid combat experience and professional personnel. Therefore, most likely this option will be the most acceptable from the point of view of efficiency.
Turkey in such a situation may well conduct operations in the provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan adjacent to Suleymaniyah - Dohuk and Erbil. Against the fighters of the RCP and the Democratic Party of Kurdistan. Both of these organizations are very unfriendly to Union, and it will only be pleased to significantly weaken the position of competitors.
In general, one and a half months ahead. I think that they will neither delay nor rush. The problem is ripe - now you need to solve it. Calm, casual and confident. But whether it will work - the question.
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