In early October, as we have already reported (“NVO” No. 36 from 10.10.14), an expert round table was held in our editorial office to discuss the nature and content of the modern asymmetric military conflict, sometimes called the “controlled chaos war”. The importance and relevance of this topic of discussion is determined by the fact that almost all the military conflicts of the last decades that took place in various parts of our planet developed and proceeded not according to the classical schemes from textbooks on the art of war. The gap between theory and practice is becoming more and more obvious. This must be realized at all levels and, most importantly, on the basis of this awareness it is necessary to begin to act. This was discussed at the round table.
The experts could not get around their attention and the tragic events in Ukraine. The humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in close proximity to our borders, according to the participants of the round table, urgently requires the application of the norms of international law, as reflected in the UN “Duty to protect” initiative of the year 2005. In practical terms, we can talk about the formation of international medical and sanitary-epidemic groups to send them to the zone of military operations in the south-east of Ukraine. Such an initiative on the part of the Russian Federation, according to experts, is not only appropriate, but also urgently needed: epidemics do not recognize national borders.
Brief theses of the experts who took part in the discussion at the round table are given below.
SPECIFICITY OF “MANAGED CHAOS WAR”
Igor Popov, Scientific Director of the Independent Expert Evaluation and Analytical Center "Epoch"
The modern world is in a state of systemic instability, imbalance and chaos. To the challenges and threats of the Cold War era, qualitatively new dangers and threats that are global in nature have been added. The world has by no means become more stable and predictable: wars are continuously shaking our planet. The intensity of nationalist passions, ideological intolerance, religious enmity poison the minds of millions of people. It is no coincidence that wars begin in the minds of people, and only then spill out. And for one moment in a historical sense, once prosperous countries and regions plunge into a state of disruption, degradation and chaos.
Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria - this list of states that fully felt the specifics of modern-type wars, this year was enlarged with Ukraine. Despite all the differences between these states, the events that took place in them have much in common. This allows some specialists to assert that there are forces in the world that control these destructive processes or at least take advantage of them and at the same time manipulate public consciousness both at the global level and within individual countries.
Take, for example, the phenomenon of the "Islamic state" suddenly emerged from the shadows. This “state” has grown out of the detachments of the irreconcilable anti-Syrian and anti-Iraqi opposition, which someone created, financed, trained and provided with everything necessary. In connection with this, a parallel involuntarily suggests itself: after all, the CIA has acted as the “godfather” of Al-Qaida in its time.
If we put aside the political content of modern military conflicts, we can see that they all have certain common features that are different from the traditional wars of the past.
First of all, modern wars arise, as a rule, in the format of intra-state conflict and quickly acquire an international dimension.
The outbreak of intra-state conflict in any country immediately receives an assessment of the West, in which one of the parties without any hesitation is immediately declared “legitimate”. The national government, the internal opposition or even some external actors can act as such a side. The position of the international community is “tailored” through the mechanisms of the UN and other intergovernmental structures, which makes it possible to give an international label of legitimacy to virtually any coup d'état.
Military conflicts of a new type do not have clearly expressed time parameters: they have no clear beginning and end. These conflicts can smolder for years, suddenly go into a “hot” stage, and then fade for a while in order to escalate again in the future.
Military actions in the course of modern military conflicts become asymmetrical when regular armed forces and irregular formations of all stripes collide on the battlefield. This requires regular troops with appropriate special training for actions against irregular formations. At the same time, conditions are created for special actions and the widespread use of special operations forces.
In a war of controlled chaos, such a phenomenon as “privatization of war” flourishes. Other actors are added to the traditional two sides of a military conflict — independent tribes, criminal gangs, “volunteer” battalions, and other organized armed formations, most often of an irregular type. Acting independently, not submitting to any side of the conflict, these formations actively contribute to the heightening of chaos and impede the processes of peaceful settlement.
Due to the specifics of the composition of participants in a military conflict, military actions themselves are often conducted from a military point of view unprofessionally. The leaders of irregular formations, as a rule, do not have a special military education and are fighting "according to concepts", which introduces additional chaos and confusion, leading to unjustified victims from all sides.
Chaos in the zone of military conflict is manifested primarily in the absence of a coherent system of command and control of troops and forces. Planning of military operations is carried out hastily and unsystematically, which negatively affects their course and outcome.
In the course of hostilities, the parties widely use the entire arsenal of weapons available to them, without thinking about the consequences and not stopping in violation of the norms and principles of international humanitarian law. Key targets of infrastructure, chemical enterprises and other environmentally hazardous facilities are often chosen as targets for destruction. At the same time, the civilian population becomes the main victim of the war of controlled chaos.
Suddenly, the inhabitants plunged into a state of war are faced with a terrible choice: flee wherever they look or remain under bombardment and shelling. Old men, women and children are the first to die. Mass executions, terror and intimidation, violence and robbery become a harsh reality.
The socioeconomic degradation of regions and entire countries plunged into a state of war, especially in the absence of international assistance and support, becomes protracted and irreversible. There is a humanitarian disaster. This is what we are seeing today, both in Syria and in Ukraine.
NEW THINKING OF OFFICERS IS REQUIRED
Anatoly Golovnev, Colonel-General, Head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training of the RF Armed Forces (1998 – 1999)
The term “war of controlled chaos”, of course, is not strictly professional, but rather journalistic, emphasizing the characteristic essence of a new type of war. But in the media it is permissible to apply.
The events of recent years inexorably testify that as a result of purposeful external intervention under the specious goals of developing democracy and protecting the rights of certain offended citizens, more or less stable states are plunged into chaos, into civil war. As a result, tens of thousands of citizens become victims, millions - refugees, and the state itself actually comes under the external control of the actual customers of this war.
However, it should be recognized that the conduct of such a war requires long, many years of preparatory action. After all, it is necessary to undermine the moral and moral foundations of the most active part of the population, to instill in him the absurd idea that if today we kill everyone, destroy and destroy everything, then tomorrow will come a bright future!
Those events that this year has rapidly developed in Ukraine are the result of many years of work by the special services of Russia's geopolitical opponents.
So, almost 30 years ago, in 1985, I was the commander of the 8th Zhytomyr tank Army (Carpathian Military District). And already at that time nationalism was constantly cultivated there: it was quite dangerous to appear on the street in military uniform in the evening, and if you speak Russian, then bottles could fly after them. I once said this to the first secretary of the Zhytomyr regional party committee, but he replied that this could not be! Then I invited him to walk around the city with me in the evening, disguised as a “citizen”. And when we did, he was able to personally verify that I had told the truth. He saw everything with his own eyes and, amazed, said: “Look at what's going on!”
But I remembered this case not to the fact that I managed to open the eyes of this First Secretary to real life in the region. I think that even without me he could not but know the true state of affairs. It is interesting to continue this stories. A few days after my statement about the growth of nationalism in the region, when I was at the training ground, the local police came to my house and told my wife that I was suspected of home brewing! That is, he accuses me, the army commander, of moonshine making! Despite the absurdity of the charges, the police tried to play their part seriously and demanded to let them into the apartment for a search! I fully admit that during the search they could have thrown up anything, since they came with such an absurd accusation. Well, saved a neighbor who did not allow this outrage. My subsequent appeals to the police in order to find out who arranged this provocation and why did not lead to anything.
This fact simply confirms that the work on the separation of Ukraine from the rest of the Slavic world was carried out for many decades using all, even the dirtiest, means. And what happened today in Ukraine is not at all accidental. Huge funds were spent on this, primarily on the ideological treatment of the population, supporting the activities of various NGOs.
It is simply impossible to effectively counteract the systemic, long-term, targeted actions of our geopolitical opponents without the same advance systemic work. And this means that we need commanders who are capable of competently waging a new type of war imposed on us, effectively managing troops in wars of controlled chaos and the like.
There is no doubt that modern civilian and pseudo-civilian (as it began in Libya) wars have their specific features that must be considered when preparing troops. However, changes in combat training programs must be made so as not to reduce the possibility of preparing troops for participation in a large-scale war, because no one excludes its probability. This is a complex task that requires rethinking some of the basic principles of preparing troops for war.
War is a very dangerous thing. It is easy to start. Difficult to lead and finish with minimal damage to your people!
A new type of war requires new thinking of officers. It is necessary to study the experience of military conflicts in recent years and promptly make appropriate amendments to the training programs for cadets and officers in all military schools. First of all, it is necessary to clarify the curricula at the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
NEW WAR TECHNOLOGY
Musa Khamzatov, Chief Analyst, Independent Expert Evaluation and Analytical Center "Epoch"
The wave of “controlled chaos” wars, initiated under the guise of color revolutions, is steadily moving eastward, coming close to the borders of Russia: Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Ukraine. There is no doubt that our geopolitical opponents are interested in bringing down this wave of chaos as a tsunami is gathering power against Russia. It will be more difficult to withstand its blow, because with each successive color revolution, the organizers summarize its results and refine the technology of destabilization and the collapse of the state, taking into account local realities and the mentality of the population. In addition, each successive country, plunged into a state of half-life and economic degradation, becomes an excellent resource base for replenishing active participants in unrest and armed resistance in every corner of the world. Especially the neighbors!
In these conditions, it is necessary not to reassure the military-political leadership of the country with the fact that we cannot have this, because it cannot be, but to purposefully identify new features in the content of modern wars and promptly build up countermeasures!
Of course, the easiest way to explain the low effectiveness of the armed forces of the state is another victim of the “war of controlled chaos” with propaganda clichés: they have a weak, poorly equipped army! But if they had more airplanes, helicopters, and UAVs (hereinafter referred to as the list - all modern weapons, up to nuclear weapons!), then it was then that no opponent would have overcome!
Very dangerous and superficial approach. In such a serious area as military affairs, one cannot rely on propaganda slogans and make predictions on the fact that we are a priori “smarter, kinder and more beautiful”!
The situation in the world resembles the end of 30 - the beginning of the 40 of the last century, when, after the rapid defeat of the Polish army by the Armed Forces of Nazi Germany, many military experts from leading countries of the world, including the USSR, said that this was a special case. That such brilliant successes were achieved by the Germans only because the Poles ... And then everyone came up with everything he wanted, putting the main emphasis on the fact that the territory of Poland was small, its army was weak in itself, Polish officers were useless, etc. The result of such carelessness is known to us: with no less speed in 1940, the Nazis defeated the combined French-British forces, and then, in 1941, forced the Red Army to retreat to Moscow and the Volga! The enormous human and material sacrifices suffered in these wars were due to the fact that the military-political leadership and local commanders did not realize then that the new war technology, blitzkrieg, had been developed and introduced by Fascist Germany. Many people know this term, but even now there are few specialists who can explain its essence ...
Today, the technology of war is the technology of "cloud enemy". The main idea of this technology, tested by military experts of the West during the color revolutions and “controlled chaos” wars of recent years, is presented in the materials of the round table held by the Independent Expert-Analytical Center “Epoch” together with the editorial board of the newspaper “Independent Military Review” in late April 2013 of the year. Then, based on the analysis of the characteristics of the use of the armed forces of the states that fell victim to the Arab spring in 2010 – 2013, it was concluded that it is necessary to prepare the state’s military organization for a future war, taking into account the fundamental changes in the technology of its conduct. The “cloud adversary” technology was most clearly manifested in Ukraine during the so-called popular demonstrations on Independence Square in February-March 2014.
Currently, attempts to counteract the new technology of war, relying on the old theory, are fraught with the same disastrous consequences as 75 years ago. With one exception: the rear, where you can retreat, will not. Today, hostilities take place immediately throughout the country - victims of aggression and, as they say, no one knows where to run and what to do in such conditions!
Briefly, the main features of a new type of war can be described as follows:
the goal of the war is an economic collapse and a humanitarian catastrophe of the state;
the main means of achieving this goal is the "cloud enemy";
the basis of tactics is the actions of small units with the aim of causing maximum damage to the economy and population;
scope of operations - the whole country;
duration - not limited to the achievement of the goal of the war;
enemy mobilization base - the whole world;
the material support of the "cloud enemy" is mainly due to local resources with targeted supply of modern weapons to the structures that perform the most important tasks.
The main conclusion: to resist the technology of war in the old ways is impossible!
The military-political leadership should focus on the creation of strong coalitions capable of resisting the “cloud enemy”, supported by all the military-economic power of the geopolitical adversary and its allies. Independently, a new type of war cannot be won!
NEEDS STRATEGY FOR COUNTERACTION
Ivan Demyanov, Major General, Head of the EW Army Directorate (1979 – 1988)
War, by definition, Clausewitz, is "the continuation of politics by other, violent means." What is “controlled chaos” and how does it relate to war?
As you know, chaos is a mess and confusion. The initial stage of almost any war is accompanied by chaos - confusion and disorder on both sides of the conflict. Naturally, each side seeks to do everything in advance to reduce the degree of confusion in itself and to increase the chaos in the camp of the enemy. To do this, complex state defense plans are drawn up, trainings are conducted with leaders at all levels, the necessary supplies of essential necessities are created, and so on.
With the increasing complexity of society’s life, the effectiveness of its functioning inevitably begins to depend increasingly on the quality of the information used and the speed with which it is exchanged. It is only necessary to break one of these components - and the decisions made are no longer consistent with the conditions of the situation and can sometimes make destructive effects on management processes. Understanding this fairly simple truth and allowed, in my opinion, the West to develop a theory of the war of "controlled chaos", which allowed in practice literally for a pittance to bring down regimes and states that he did not like.
The idea of destroying one’s geopolitical adversary using “controlled chaos” did not emerge today. Let me remind the words that are attributed to Allen Dulles (director of the United States CIA in 1953 – 1961 years): “... having sown chaos there (in the USSR), we will imperceptibly replace their values with false ones and make them believe in these false values. How? We will find our like-minded people, our allies in Russia itself. ”
At the present time, with the development of information technologies, “controlled chaos” is an information component of war, both with the use of military means and without their use. The information component is essentially an information sphere and includes all types of command and control of troops and weapons, from a soldier to complex integrated network systems. In the information sphere there are invisible fierce battles for the mastery of information, there is a real information war. And in this war, to such well-established concepts as “electronic warfare” and “radioelectronic war”, new ones were added - “operations in cyberspace” and “cyberwar”, “information operations” and “information warfare”.
Traditionally, the most important tasks of actions in the information sphere are to disrupt the control systems of the enemy and ensure the sustainable management of their funds. Therefore, either party will first of all take measures to block the enemy’s intelligence system in order to prevent it from collecting and processing intelligence information. It is necessary to make the enemy blind, disrupt the network control systems of the combat means.
In wars of “controlled chaos”, the main task is not only to disrupt the enemy’s control systems and ensure stable management of their assets, as it was before. Now the task is much wider: the information sphere from two-dimensional has become three-dimensional. You can draw an analogy: in the information sphere, fundamental changes are taking place, similar to how in the beginning of the XIX century aviation made the battlefield three-dimensional. Now in the information sphere, special operations are planned and carried out to acquire information. Moreover, it is the information sphere that acts as the basis for conducting operations of “controlled chaos”. The creation of chaos in the enemy today is considered as one of the ways of waging a new type of war.
The use of “managed chaos” technologies allows solving such tasks as:
- violation of troop and weapon control systems;
- the implementation of the enemy's misinformation about his plans, the deployment of troops, the direction of attacks and the means used;
- the destruction or interruption of lines of communication, depriving the enemy of the opportunity to bring troops and ammunition;
- the collapse of the opponent's economy and its financial system;
- waging a propaganda war demoralizing the troops and population.
The main task that organizers of “controlled chaos” set themselves is to achieve success without the start of hostilities.
An example of how “managed chaos” technologies were used by the West to solve serious geopolitical problems is the collapse of the Soviet Union.
And the last. In terms of preparing the country for a new type of war, not only a new type of thinking of commanders is required (in this I fully agree with the respected Anatoly Andreyevich Golovnev), but also a new structure of the armed forces, and the entire military organization of the state.
STATE STRATEGY FOR THE PREVENTION OF CHAOTIZATION
“Managed chaos” is rather not a goal, but a means in the modern geopolitical confrontation. The ultimate goal of the subjects who resort to this or other means has been and remains world domination. Therefore, “controlled chaos” should not be regarded as a strategy, but as a technology.
Through the use of this technology, the task of weakening and destroying the state as a political organization of society is being quite successfully solved. Solving such a task allows external control of a weakened state by global actors.
A vivid illustration of the consequences of the use of such technology is given by modern Ukraine, where, after a forceful seizure of power, many state institutions and officials are virtually incapacitated: decisions taken may not be implemented or ignored, non-state military forces that are not controlled by the center. Constant consideration of the authorities when making decisions on the approval of Maidan and radical groups capable of using violence and weapons if they didn’t like something, suggests that there are signs of a programmed result in the form of an occlocracy and anarchy. It is not surprising that not everyone in Ukraine is ready to put up with the status quo. On the strength and capacity of the state in these conditions can not speak.
I would also like to speak about the very concept of “controlled chaos” war. Previously, we had to get acquainted with the developments and voluminous publications about the airborne, gas, geophysical, air, tank, terrorist and many other wars, including the most exotic ones. And this is the case when there is not and is not taught in educational institutions of the general theory of war, when war as a political phenomenon is not really comprehended by science.
Frankly, the phenomenon of “controlled chaos” is not in itself something fundamentally new for a specialist - and especially for a specialist in the field of political technologies. Understanding of what is happening contributes, in particular, familiarization with the views of domestic and foreign theorists and practitioners: T. Hobbes, Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, E. Messner, L. Garth, M. Khrustaleva, J. Warren, B. Hoiser, R. Wesseler, A. Snesareva, A. Svechin, R. Garr, E. Ludendorff, K. Malaparte, J. Sharp, A. Selivanova and many others. It remains only to comprehend and synthesize the results of existing developments in relation to modernity. But this must be done systematically and constantly, and not occasionally. Of course, the state administration system, the economy, and the military organization of the state, including the armed forces, and the institutions of civil society must be able to act in a coordinated manner in order to prevent “controlled chaos”, as well as function under such a threat.
If it was revealed that a purposeful geopolitical operation is being carried out against Russia using the technology of “controlled chaos”, then one should think in terms of operational art and strategy. This means that all available resources must be regarded as elements of a battle order or operational construction.
Judging by a number of measures taken in Russia (for example, to give the patriotic education of citizens the status of state policy), the country's leadership is aware of the problem and the danger of chaos.
The state strategy of Russia on the prevention and counteraction to “controlled chaos” should be built in two directions. They can be called internal and external, despite the fact that they are inextricably linked.
Domestically, work should continue to consolidate the country and the nation on the basis of unifying values, to create a sense of political responsibility among citizens. Moreover, it is necessary to consistently introduce into the public consciousness the idea that the most important value of a nation is our historically established state. The development of the economy and the increase in the level of citizens' well-being should be attributed to this activity Of course, it is necessary to give a certain direction to military construction, taking into account the prospects for the use of military force, based on a situation that may arise not only tomorrow, but in a few decades.
In addition, one should not forget that the critical consciousness of infrastructure, on the reliable functioning of which depends on the security and development of the country, in a number of developed foreign countries, public consciousness is rightly attributed. After all, indeed, we live in conditions of constant and powerful informational influence, which easily becomes biased and destructive, especially if it is specially organized.
The external direction is connected with the purposeful activity of forming around Russia such a safe external environment that allows it to develop. For this, our country needs to develop a vision of the world that corresponds to its interests, no matter how ambitious this task may appear. It is necessary to realize, formulate and articulate national interests in relation to a particular region and country. And here without the expert community can not do
The concepts of the “war of controlled chaos”, “color revolution”, “hybrid wars” and “hybrid threats” used in today's meeting seem to be a new kind of contemporary conflict based on subversive innovative technologies developed in the West. I note that a separate place in the list of innovative disruptive technologies is taken by the color revolutions, carried out with the use of “controlled chaos” technologies. At the same time, such technologies act as a means of non-violent interception of power during a coup d'état with the aim of putting the target country under external control.
The experience of color revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Ukraine and some other countries shows that from political blackmail at the initial stage during relatively peaceful demonstrations, the opposing parties as a result of skillful manipulations from foreign customers and domestic interested actors continue to force confrontation. At the same time, the absence of a decisive reaction of the authorities to the initial separate acts of use of force by the radical opposition and skillfully provoked by law enforcement agencies leads to an escalation of the conflict with the subsequent "slide" of the country to civil war.
The customers of the color revolution predict the development of events according to such a scenario and prepare the necessary power and information resources in advance, pushing new leaders alternative to the current government. To push through their plans, they do not stop directly interfering in the internal affairs of sovereign states, as was the case, for example, during the well-known visits to Ukraine of high-ranking representatives of the State Department and the US Congress, the director of the CIA, the political elite of the European Union.
In such circumstances, the inaction of the authorities, paralyzed by fear and threats of persecution from the international community, leads to the outbreak of civil war in the country.
At subsequent stages in the framework of the algorithm of adaptive use of force comes the turn of using technologies of war of a new type - “hybrid war”. The color revolution, therefore, can only be considered as the initial stage of such a war.
It should be noted that the strategy of "hybrid wars" has been developed in the West for a number of years, but there is still no clear unified definition of such a war.
At a high official level, the term “hybrid war” was first heard at the NATO summit in September of this year. In Great Britain. By such a war, the alliance means conducting a wide range of direct hostilities and covert operations, carried out on a single plan by the armed forces, guerrilla (non-military) formations and also include the actions of various civilian components.
In order to improve the ability of NATO allies to confront the new threat, it is planned to establish coordination between the ministries of internal affairs, to attract police and gendarmerie forces to curb non-traditional threats associated with propaganda campaigns and local separatists. Separately, the threat of cyber attacks.
The complex of hybrid threats includes threats of various types: traditional, non-standard, large-scale terrorism, as well as subversive actions, during which technologies are used to counter superior military force. A feature of hybrid threats is their strictly focused, adaptive in relation to the target state and the specific political situation character. According to the figurative expression, such threats are formed for a specific country, as a suit is sewn to order. This feature gives “hybrid threats” a unique synergy and makes them a powerful destructive potential.
The focused nature and high dynamics of the transition of “hybrid threats” from the category of potential to the actual ones require careful preliminary study at the state level of countermeasures.
In this context, Russia and the CSTO member states should focus on measures aimed at eliminating the causes that contribute to the development of protest attitudes in society, including corruption, social inequality, lack of social elevators, unemployment, and insufficient support for small and medium businesses. It is necessary to continue the active involvement of youth in the activities of public organizations of a patriotic orientation, in sports mass organizations.
It is necessary to reliably cut off the financial flows that go to finance the radical protest movement.
Separate attention should be paid to pursuing a focused policy on cultural assimilation of migrants, opposing the creation of ethnic enclaves in large cities and certain regions.
A reliable foundation for carrying out a set of preventive measures should be the sustainable economic development of the country, reliable protection of borders, a well thought-out system of territorial defense.
ROLE OF MILITARY ORGANIZATION OF THE STATE
Andrei Demidyuk, Executive Director, KANT Research and Production Enterprise OJSC
I would like to dwell on several aspects of the problem under consideration - the “controlled chaos” war.
First, there is no unequivocal understanding of it by the expert community as part of the theory and practice of military art. Numerous publications on new forms and methods of waging wars and armed conflicts offer rather contradictory views on these issues. The authors easily use the concepts of “color revolutions”, “indirect actions”, “latent actions”, “civil war”, “controlled chaos wars”, “insurgent actions”, “network actions”, etc. In this case, in essence, we mean a certain set of forms of armed confrontation, inspired and financed from abroad, using, inter alia, irregular formations distributed by place and time, but, as a rule, united by a single plan and a single control system. Such actions, due to their obvious connection between themselves, the involvement of the civilian population, the absence, as a rule, in the first phase of actual armed confrontation with the official authorities, the presence of a deep “smoke screen” under the slogans of democratization, are difficult to classify from the point of view of modern military theory conflictology.
It is all the more important today to give precise and strict definitions of such actions, to develop a sound terminological apparatus, to offer their main characteristics, differences from traditional wars and armed conflicts.
The most significant signs of military conflicts are:
- causes and contradictions that led to their occurrence;
- the composition of the conflicting parties;
- political and strategic goals of the parties to the conflict;
- ways to achieve the goals of the conflict;
- used types of weapons and military equipment;
- spatial scope and duration;
- used forms and methods of action of forces;
- features of conflict;
- periodization of wars, conflicts;
- possible consequences.
Disclosing each of these features as applied to wars of a new type would allow removing existing uncertainties in the approaches to assessing the content of such wars and conflicts.
Secondly, considering the military conflicts of the last decades, resulting from the so-called color and flower revolutions, as complex socio-political phenomena, we must not forget that the opposing sides on both sides are not armed forces and armed formations (legal or illegal). Such wars are fought by states, even if one of these states acts as a “customer” (without officially declaring its role and participation).
The military doctrine of the Russian Federation determines that a military organization of the state is being created (developed) to ensure military security and protect national interests, including other troops, military formations and bodies for accomplishing military security tasks by military methods, as well as command and control agencies by them; part of the industrial and scientific complexes of the country, designed to ensure military security.
As a result of active hostilities Donbas suffered colossal destruction. That's all that remains of the Donetsk airport terminal. Reuters Photos
Therefore, when considering the tasks facing a country subjected to aggression in the forms we are discussing today, it is necessary to evaluate the role and place of all other components of the state’s military organization.
It should be clearly understood what tasks the military and political leadership bodies, federal and municipal government bodies and local governments, the country's defense industry and other structures involved in these processes should solve when preparing and in the context of a military conflict developing according to the scenario of Syria or Ukraine. How should the work of the administration of the municipality to maintain life in the territory covered by the military conflict be organized? In the conditions of the indispensable companion of all the military conflicts of the last decades - humanitarian disasters, the collapse of the economy, destroyed utilities, medical and other types of support - preparation for solving these tasks should be organized well in advance.
Of particular importance is the provision of security and sustainable operation of the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, the fuel and energy complex, warehouses and arsenals of weapons and ammunition that are in the conflict zone.
These issues are extremely complex and require their detailed elaboration for each of the possible scenarios, in each territory, which is potentially dangerous in terms of the threat of a new type of military conflict.
In this regard, it would be advisable to refer to the experience of organizing civil defense in the Soviet Union, territorial defense in other countries, military administrations in conflict zones, adapting them to the conditions of the Russian Federation; clarify the procedure for organizing the mobilization preparation of the population, territories and the economy of the country.
But, of course, it is necessary to begin with serious research and adjustments to the regulatory framework that determines the issues of ensuring the military security of the state and the national security of the country as a whole.
INEVITABLE RESULT - HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE
Victoria Shepeleva, a sociologist
To date, we de facto have unleashed a third world war. The practice of color revolutions clearly shows that, having a certain resource and developing, exacerbating one of the facets of problematic issues, conflict situations in society, it is possible to overthrow any system in any country, subject to connivance and the absence of countermeasures from the current government. As noted in the film "Heart of a Dog" by Professor Preobrazhensky, "devastation begins in the minds, in the minds of our people ...".
In fact, the model of capitalism itself implies a periodic recession, crisis, depression, the way out of which (nothing better is invented) is the outbreak of military conflicts. Through this, the shortage of cheap resources, labor, and intellectual wealth is replenished. In a word, a new geopolitical map is drawn under the ruler, the old model of world order is corrected in order to maintain its viability.
It would be naive to believe that the war in Ukraine can be limited only to civil confrontation. It is obvious that the February coup under the slogans of European integration on the territory of Ukraine was carried out according to a scenario written not only for this country. In fact, another bridgehead was being prepared for inflicting a more serious blow, the implementation of the ancient idea of fixing the West for seizing the resources of Russia. And Ukraine in this confrontation has become a hostage, having a whole baggage of unsolved problems, national and ethnic conflicts.
But the pro-Western screenwriters did not take into account the special mentality of the south-eastern regions of the country, where the Russian population lives, accounting for one third of the whole of Ukraine.
The residents of Donbass are not aware of themselves as a nation by blood, rather they perceive themselves as people by way of life. This is a genetic feature that is not corroded!
The people of Donbass were not formed on the basis of common values, as is typical for Europeans, they were brought up on the basis of a single lifestyle. The people of Donbass took place as a political nation ...
Civil wars took place on the territory of most states of the world for many centuries, but so far most historians have no clear definition of what a civil war is and how it differs from other military actions. In the arsenal of modern ways of waging modern civil wars - information and political technology, finance, psychological treatment of the population. However, the sophistication of civil war methods does not negate the fact that all of them do not develop according to the scenarios of their initiators, but, as a rule, get out of their control and are irrational, as a result of which the civilian population of the country, plunged into the depths, suffers obscurantism.
Any war, regardless of scale, leads to a decline or a complete collapse of the economy of the entire state. A state that conducts military actions against its own people, destroying civilians, children, old people, women and entire settlements, plunging the population into the abyss of lawlessness, powerlessness and obscurantism, is doomed to death.
Suspending the payment of pensions and social benefits in the Donbass is a big mistake and a big risk. The National Bank of Ukraine has obliged banks and the treasury to suspend the implementation of all types of financial operations in settlements that are not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. The consequences provoked by this decision are much more serious than the possible risks of provocations or seizures of branches.
What is happening today? Pensioners receive money, go grocery shopping, pay utility bills, etc. Due to this, utilities operate, electricity is supplied, shops work. If you stop the work of the National Bank, then everything will stop - there will be a collapse, a humanitarian catastrophe. Donbass is mostly large enterprises. The share of small and medium businesses that suffer most in this situation is historically very small here.
The problems faced by the residents of Donbass - this is the railway, and energy. The work of the entire railway is paralyzed - it is impossible to ship coal, to provide metallurgical enterprises with raw materials.
What is the post-Maidan tragedy of Donbass? In the fact that people were abandoned, the future suddenly disappeared for them. Purposeful systematic destruction of the infrastructure of the region is a huge problem. Substations, gas pipelines, high-voltage transmission lines are destroyed almost every day. All mines in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and adjacent areas were disabled, which caused a shortage of coal, electricity and, as a result, created the danger of rolling blackouts across the country. The situation is aggravated by the fact that bridges were blown up along all the main highways.
As a result, the eastern regions of the country are in a state of humanitarian catastrophe. People are at a loss: in an apparent truce, the shelling of settlements continues. The population of many cities and towns remains without electricity, water, gas, and most importantly - without food.
HUMANITARIAN MEDICAL INTERVENTION
Vasily Mitrofanov, Colonel of Medical Service
The main victim of any war - right or wrong, asymmetric or contactless, large-scale or local - is always civilians. We see this today in Ukraine.
The technology of achieving victory in Kiev is simple and worked out by the Americans back in Serbia: the destruction of infrastructure, the initiation of a humanitarian catastrophe, the destruction or squeezing out of the country of dissent, the prevention or obstruction of humanitarian assistance. The goal is to create dissatisfaction with the passive majority and return the region to the bosom of Ukraine on the most severe conditions. The latest decisions of Kiev to change the administrative-territorial structure of the Luhansk region have the same background: the population in the areas controlled by the authorities on the eve of the coming winter will receive state support, the rest will not.
The leadership of the self-proclaimed republics has a difficult, and in the near future, disastrous situation of its population, it allows them to put pressure on Russia to achieve a certain status and begin humanitarian intervention in the region covered by the war. The basis for humanitarian intervention is the violation by Ukraine of the principles of the UN “Duty to Protect” Concept from 2005, which states that the state has a direct responsibility to protect people living within the borders of this state, and in the event that this duty is not fulfilled, the responsibility is transferred to the international community.
The attitude of the “world community” to the possible humanitarian intervention of Russia was expressed by Angela Merkel: “Our position is clear - any invasion, even if it is called humanitarian, is an invasion, and this is a red line that no state can cross.”
Thus, the West and the Ukrainian authorities are not interested in providing humanitarian assistance, and Russia is limited in its capabilities.
However, no one is trying to predict the further development of the humanitarian situation in the south-east of Ukraine, especially in the epidemiological aspect. Based on 30-year personal experience as a specialist physician, including in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, in the North Caucasus, in Central Asia, I have to pay attention to the following aspects:
- due to the ongoing fire confrontation, possible damage, violations of technological processes in the chemical industry is likely a huge amount affected by ammonia, chlorine and other substances. In the absence of specialized care in the first minutes, the degree of mortality is very high;
- disruption of water supply, lack of control over water quality will necessarily lead to outbreaks, and even epidemics of dysentery, hepatitis B, and typhoid fever;
- the lack of control over the “sleeping” especially dangerous infections - anthrax (destruction of cattle cemeteries) and cholera (32 sick in the Donetsk region in 2011) - can lead to global problems;
- high background levels of tuberculosis, AIDS, syphilis and hepatitis C (Donetsk’s 3-place in terms of morbidity after Chernivtsi and Chernihiv) against the background of social upheavals allow us to predict a sharp increase in these extremely serious diseases;
- the presence of natural (endemic) foci of the Crimean hemorrhagic fever in the Luhansk region, the spread of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) by means of bred mice (non-harvested harvest) require constant monitoring;
- As a result of violation of sanitary and hygienic rules (lack of bathing and laundry facilities, overcrowding) - 100-percent probability of scabies, pediculosis and typhus outbreaks.
The consequences of the above factors will affect the population of both New Russia and Ukraine, as well as Russia.
Under these conditions, humanitarian intervention on the part of Russia is not only justified, but also necessary. We are ready to offer possible options for such humanitarian medical intervention. Russia is capable of organizing the creation and direction to the south-east of Ukraine of medical detachments (in the likeness of the MoES), sanitary and anti-epidemic detachments, sanitary trains, staffed exclusively by civilian personnel. A considerable reserve of trained doctors, including infectious disease specialists, epidemiologists, bacteriologists, and hygienists, are stock medical service officers, many of whom have practical experience in dealing with the complex situation of military conflict.
- autonomy of work.
The main tasks of the medical unit:
- rendering the first medical, qualified medical care to the civilian population;
- temporary hospitalization;
- preparation for evacuation to medical institutions for further treatment and hospitalization.
The main tasks of the anti-epidemic unit:
- epidemiological intelligence;
- carrying out preventive anti-epidemic measures in the areas of possible foci of chemical and bacteriological damage.
The main task of the sanitary train is the bathing and laundry services for the civilian population.
The international nature of the mission can provide the involvement of the forces and means of Belarus, Kazakhstan, perhaps the BRICS countries, other countries for staffing and equipping such units. Staff security can be provided by additional articles in the agreements between the parties to the conflict. It seems to us that the real work of such institutions will strengthen the authority of Russia not only among the population of the south-east of Ukraine, but throughout the world.
MILITARY CONFLICT IN UKRAINE: INTERIM RESULTS
Olga Kulygina, Associate Professor, Department of Corporate Management, REU named after G.V. Plekhanov
In October, the United States Marine Corps Newspaper 1989 published an article that launched a discussion on the “fourth generation wars”: “Fourth generation hostilities are likely to be highly dispersed and mostly undefined; the dividing line between peace and war will be blurred until it disappears completely. The war will be non-linear to such an extent that, quite possibly, it will lack identifiable battlefield and front lines.
The differences between "civil" and "military" are likely to disappear. Actions will be simultaneously directed to the entire “depth” of the parties involved, including their entire society, understood not only in its physical, but also in its cultural aspect. ”
Obviously, the confrontation in the Donbass has many signs of a “fourth generation war”. Today, in the period of the declared truce and reduction of the scale of hostilities, it seems possible to evaluate the interim results for the parties involved in the conflict.
The official power of Ukraine. During the time that has elapsed since the February coup d'état, the forces that came to power in Kiev have achieved significant success within the country. The media space was completely cleaned from opponents, all key government structures, including the armed forces, were taken under control. After the presidential election, the regime gained significant international support. Ukrainian society is currently quite consolidated and is still ready to endure the difficulties associated with current economic and military problems. Positive moments for the ruling regime of Ukraine, in fact, this ends. The negative is already at the moment much more, and it is obvious that the situation will only get worse. The main problems are related to the economy, energy and the military component of the conflict in the south-east.
According to the latest UN data, the death toll in the Donbass was 3682, the wounded were 8871 people. The statistics of the so-called missing persons, Kiev does not disclose. It is likely that the real losses of all parties are significantly higher than these figures.
According to Petro Poroshenko, during the "anti-terrorist operation" (ATO), Ukraine lost 65% of military equipment. Losses of aviation in the ATO zone can be regarded as its actual destruction. Given the fact that the majority of these were still Soviet reserves, it is not possible to recover what was lost in the near future.
The attitude of the leaders of the ATO to their own military personnel can be assessed as being openly criminal, and Ukrainian society will still ask the regime for dull human lives. Official Kiev is not even able to provide and maintain a group of ATO forces.
The methods and means of conducting ATO by the Kiev regime can be regarded as a war crime. First of all, this is the unfolding of a full-scale military operation against its own population, which is directly prohibited by Art. 17 Constitution of Ukraine. War crimes include: executions of prisoners; the shelling of humanitarian convoys and columns of refugees; massive shelling of the RSZO and artillery of the cities and towns of Donbass using banned cluster munitions against the civilian population of the southeast; destruction of regional infrastructure; the use of illegal armed formations in the form of various "battalions" and much more.
New Russia. Before the armed conflict, the south-east of Ukraine was one of the most economically developed regions of the country. The war plunged him into a state of humanitarian disaster.
Positive results include the elimination of the entire administrative system of the region controlled by Kiev, the holding of referendums on self-determination of the DPR and the LPR, the creation of relatively efficient armed groups. Actually, everything. The loss is much greater. This is primarily the death of a large number of residents, the destruction of settlements and enterprises in the region, the absence of a legitimate power vertical, a massive exodus of the population, a very complex military and criminal situation. The number of personnel of the armed formations of the DPR and the LPR does not correspond to the mobilization resource of the region. For some warlords, war became a source of personal enrichment.
Currently, the authorities of both regions are not able to provide their population with the minimum necessary and are completely dependent on Russian assistance. The region’s economy has been largely destroyed, its restoration will require huge funds, and winter is ahead. In addition to these there are still a lot of less significant problems.
Now, after the return of most of the refugees to their cities, it is necessary to urgently restore the activities of enterprises and public utilities so that the region can provide itself with everything necessary. The immediate construction of political and military verticals is required, including the formation of an army, without which no other tasks will be accomplished. Today, the fight against crime and the disarmament of formations that do not solve the tasks of protecting Novorossia are especially necessary. This, of course, only the immediate problems that had to be resolved yesterday.