Military Review

Publicist Yegor Kholmogorov - about what should be done and about those who should not be listened to

Publicist Yegor Kholmogorov - about what should be done and about those who should not be listened to

In any political system, the division into supporters of force and supporters of negotiations, into “hawks” and “pigeons”, on foreign policy issues is absolutely normal. Some want weapons approve the national honor and ensure strategic interests; others do not want the destruction of the usual way of life by the war and hope to reach an agreement with everyone. For political balance, both camps are needed, and not just once or twice in stories the defeat of the "pigeons" led to the disaster of the peoples.

However, the peculiarity of the Russian political situation is that, due to the peculiarities of our media, which are practically 100-percent controlled by “system liberals”, if “pigeons” start cooing, their cooing turns into a battle scream and stuns, scoring even official statements, while as the voice of the “hawks” is heard muffled and more or less expressed only in the blogosphere.

The Russian "pigeons" have already managed several times to frighten the participants of the "Russian spring" in the east of Ukraine, creating (despite official statements from the Kremlin) the impression that "Moscow will surrender them."

In addition to the thesis that “the people in Donbas are passive and do not expect any release”, refuted by the uprising in the regional centers and the beginning of the transition to the rebel military units, besides the strange statement that “we don’t need Donbass” (in fact, without Europe’s largest industrial region Russia's full-fledged industrialization is impossible), the thesis of a “trap” is increasingly heard.

They allegedly lure us to Ukraine in the USA, so that Russia, instead of peaceful development (with corruption, ethnic conflicts and national depression), must fight and suppress the partisan movement in Ukraine.

Conspiracy is good because in principle it can not be refuted.

Conspiracy can explain everything. However, no one in their right mind will build a trap from a part of your national territory, which is its south for Russia.

Because the reintegration of this territory has an independent meaning, and the concept of an unacceptable price in this case is almost absent. The trap, as I will show below, will be Russia's refusal to intervene.

The argument, which usually “pigeons” do not express out loud, but which is most essential, is based on the fear of a part of our elite before deepening a split with the west. These people hope that Crimea will perhaps forgive the West, the sanctions will not deepen, but the intervention in the southeast is a point of no return, a violation of the financial and everyday status quo and a change of ideology and requirements for personnel within Russia.

By and large, pigeon cooing covers one meaning: “I don’t want my lifestyle to suffer!”

It is difficult to object here. This is a value choice. For me, the goal of the reunification of the Russian people in one state is, of course, sacred, and no military threats (which no one is going to realize), and especially sanctions, can scare away from its realization. But I have something to object from the point of view of strategic interests.

Russia's non-intervention in a developing crisis or at least limited intervention without achieving a decisive victory puts us on the brink of a geopolitical and military catastrophe. The Kiev regime - not accidentally nicknamed the junta - showed its complete political insanity and incompetence.

His only dominant is Russophobia, his political logic is the transition of Ukraine to total external control. All that they can offer us is that we sponsor Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

If you leave the south-east at the mercy of the junta, in 2, we will receive the NATO bases on Kiev and Kharkov highways, 500 km from Moscow. The entire territory of European Russia - the Caucasus, the Volga region, and the Center of Russia - will be permeable to NATO from the stripped eastern part of Ukraine.

From Lugansk to Volgograd, the same 500 km, which, alas, was checked by our army back in 1942 after the failure of the Kharkov operation. Controlling the east of Ukraine or the Donbass, cutting off the Caucasus from Russia is not a problem at all. In a strategic sense, we roll back to that very same July 1942 of the year.

I'm not talking about NATO air defense and missile defense. Actually, you can forget about any strategic security of Russia after that.

To agree, to hope for the mercy of NATO, the hungry humiliation of Russia after the Crimea, is not necessary. The remains of the mind of politicians in Kiev, even the most moderate, are in the zone of statistical error.

The only responsible politician in Ukraine, Oleg Tsarev, became a victim of the goblins who poisoned him, waving his swimming trunks on the Maidan. There is simply no one to talk to in Kiev, no one guarantees anything there and after the jesterly elections there will be no guarantee.

Judging by Tymoshenko’s plans to create a private army, the next stage in the history of Ukraine will be the division of its militarist groups.

The only way to guarantee security to Russia is to intervene and, first, remove as many territories from submission to Kiev as clearly as possible, knowing that everything that remains in submission to Kiev is doomed to a merciless anti-Russian sweep, for which the Maidan was originally started revolution.

Secondly, try to inflict a defeat on the Kiev junta that will force it to stop its existence and start the process of Finlandization of West-Central Ukraine. Without a clear and demonstrative complete defeat, such memorization is impossible.

It should be understood that this is only from the Russian point of view, we are still neutral. From the point of view of Ukrainian politicians and the man in the street who is zombied by the local TV, from the point of view of the NATO offices and rhetoric, we are already fighting. And even if we don’t move a single batteer and raise a single helicopter, in the eyes of Ukraine and the West, we will still be a fighting party, only a loser.

And after the defeat will follow the penalty. Calls for non-interference are, alas, not calls for sanity, but calls for early admission of defeat.

Events in Ukraine are developing quite well in the sense that Turchinov’s army is falling apart - paratroopers raise Russian flags and go along with the airborne troops, the pilots refuse to sit at the controls - and instead have to use mercenaries from Eastern Europe. And it is likely that the junta will crush itself, breaking up against the people. But this will not happen if the threat of Moscow’s 100-percent readiness to intervene will not hang over Kiev.

Ground operation is an extreme measure (but if necessary, it should be done without hesitation). However, Russia should at least act on the Libyan option. Kiev should be informed that a no-fly zone is being introduced over the east of Ukraine.

Russian air defense systems and aviation must completely interrupt all air communications in order to exclude the possibility of using attack aircraft and helicopters against the rebels, and especially the civilian population. With the exclusion of the dominance of Kiev in the air and provided that the rebels will have a sufficient amount of heavy weapons, armored vehicles and competent officers, they will cope themselves.

Since the Yanukovych regime fell, Russia without any alternatives is doomed to intervene in Ukraine. It’s great that we rapidly and beautifully improved our strategic positions by returning Crimea. Sadly, the rest of the issues cannot be resolved as gracefully as the junta apparently seeks bloodshed and will achieve it. However, the transition to neutrality will only lead to the fact that in our south-western underbelly a thousand knives will be buried.

Just look at the Russian-Ukrainian border and think that this is not a border, but a front line with a hostile military bloc. And only decisive action can change this situation.

I will not talk about the political reorganization of the south-east of Ukraine, although after the announcement of a military operation against their peaceful citizens by Turchinov, Ukraine will have to be forgotten about the federal government. Either a unitary and anti-Russian Ukraine will be built on the mountains of corpses, or Kiev will never be obeyed there.

But the military-strategic border of Russia must pass along the Dnieper and Dniester.
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  1. domokl
    domokl April 18 2014 05: 49
    All in one way ... Ukraine is an independent country and we should not be like the Americans ... Now, even with great pressure through the media, most still consider Russia an ally and do not particularly believe in what the media are talking about ... But appear now Russian tanks near Kharkov, will also happen what happened in Russia before the annexation of Crimea ... Ukrainians will rally in front of an external enemy ...
    And then we’ll lose Ukraine for many years ... But in general, as once a wrestler, I’ll say, When you make sudden movements, the probability of getting an elbow against some harmless jamb always increases by several times ... The jamb is fix, and there will be some hand time to hurt ...
    1. Igor39
      Igor39 April 18 2014 06: 22
      I also believe that the people of Ukraine should be kind, mature, so to speak, in order to understand who their friend is and who just takes advantage of the situation. I don’t want to say that the welfare of the people influences or changes political views, but discontent will definitely not add power points. So in this situations need to take a wait and see attitude.
    2. aleks700
      aleks700 April 18 2014 06: 22
      Western media have brainwashed enough for the people of Europe. Russia, for them, the aggressor, regardless of whether it will fight or not. In my opinion, it would be the formation of an independent Little Russia, or some other name for your taste. Buffer friendly state. And without effective military assistance, the uprising will be crushed. Not visible passing to the side of the rebel units. There was a unit, but even it left the equipment dismissed. But there are already thousands of rebels, and what will happen to them?
    3. Mihaylo Tishayshiy
      Mihaylo Tishayshiy April 18 2014 09: 21
      Quote: domokl
      .But now Russian tanks appear near Kharkov, the same thing will happen that happened in Russia before the annexation of Crimea ... Ukrainians will rally in front of an external enemy ...
      And then we will lose Ukraine for many years ...

      I think that we will not lose Ukraine, but the loyalty of only a certain part of the population - this is inevitable. And remember what part of the German population was loyal to us in 1945? However, now our relations with Germany (including at the household level) are much better than with our brothers, whom we liberated from fascism. Our rulers have been waiting for something for 23 years and calmly allowed the anti-Russian ideology to unfold. Shaking our heads sadly, shall we continue to observe and try to negotiate with the insane? In the past I was engaged in "sambo", I understand that unnecessary fuss is not needed, you need to prepare competently for the throw, but then - to act with lightning speed and not "half". Everything has come to the point that now the question is no longer about the loyalty of some part of the population to us, but about the NATO bases under our noses, and if our "non-intervention" is too long, then the Americans will hurry up about this. Putin is a "judoka", the right moment for a throw, I hope, will not miss or come up with some other "knight" move. In domestic politics, he is still in complete crap, but external politics rehabilitates him well, this cannot be taken away from him.
  2. W1950
    W1950 April 18 2014 05: 51
    Yes, damn it, a dilemma.
  3. woron333444
    woron333444 April 18 2014 05: 59
    And if you sit exactly on your ass, then NATO bases will be in Donetsk and Lugansk, but without the Russian-speaking population. And then you will have to invest so much dough to defend against NATO that we will only work for war. And with the opinion of Russia it will be possible to ignore, and wipe her feet on it
    1. domokl
      domokl April 18 2014 06: 15
      Quote: woron333444
      And if you sit exactly on your ass, then NATO bases will be in Donetsk and Lugansk

      Is this the basis for such allegations? The past days have proved that the southeast of Ukraine is able to demolish the junta on its own ... The only thing that can prevent this is the use of heavy armored vehicles and aviation. But yesterday Putin clearly spoke about Russia's reaction in this case .. And everyone already knows, he just can't speak like that ... Said, done ...
      Now we are witnessing what we talked about a couple of years ago-Ukraine is falling apart ... With each passing day, the ties of the east, center and west are torn exponentially ...
      1. aleks700
        aleks700 April 18 2014 06: 23
        He said clearly, but did it?
        1. Igor39
          Igor39 April 18 2014 06: 37
          Haste is needed only when catching fleas!
  4. grog_bm
    grog_bm April 18 2014 06: 06
    The author, in my opinion, is completely right. This does not mean that it is necessary to drive out the troops, but to organize an unmanned zone !!! It is imperative to help people in the Donbass with everything necessary - how to implement this, the question is different, but this is simply a vital fact at the moment. If we leave people in the east of Ukraine, we will lose not only its center, but the inhabitants of the eastern part will also treat us with contempt. Something like this .....
    1. aleks700
      aleks700 April 18 2014 06: 27
      I agree! We will lose not only the west and the center, but also the southeast, if we dig into a rag.
  5. Grbear
    Grbear April 18 2014 06: 47
    The author, in my opinion, is completely right. This does not mean that it is necessary to drive out the troops, but to organize an unmanned zone !!!

    The author would be right if he said that the Russian lands are in Ukraine due to a misunderstanding or malicious intent. Right domokl
    When you make sudden movements there is always a significantly increased probability of elbowing against some harmless cant ....
    , and even with my eyes closed crying .
    What should be done is done. Crimea showed that the Specialists are alive, but everything is more complicated. The army is falling apart before our very eyes, but the "separatists" themselves do not yet see the coordination center (or it does not shine). They will use guns and aircraft - one conversation, they will go on foot - another. After Geneva, every day of the "peace" has to work for the organization of management, and this is done, I think repeat .
    1. koshh
      koshh April 18 2014 09: 36
      Now, first of all, it is necessary to deprive Kiev of financial support. So all the banks in the southeast should be controlled by local rebels. Taking the buildings of the SBU and the city hall does not mean taking power. Nowadays, power is finance.
      Without money, the junta will begin to make serious mistakes (if it does not fall apart), giving us the opportunity for more maneuver.
  6. Signaller
    Signaller April 18 2014 06: 59
    Brewers know that good beer is a beer that has been kept up to standard. So that the pants stick to the bench. . Otherwise, water with hops. No taste, no smell, nothing. So we are waiting for a good and healthy drink to come out of this batch. Time is all it takes.
  7. old man
    old man April 18 2014 07: 00
    The heads of the diplomatic departments of the Russian Federation, the United States and the European Union are working out in Geneva a document on overcoming the Ukrainian crisis. It was reported to ITAR-TCC by a source in the Western delegation. "At the moment, the meeting continues without the participation of the Ukrainian side, - said the spokesman of the agency. - The parties are discussing a specific document on how to get out of the current crisis in Ukraine."

    Actually, the news perfectly reflects the essence of the Ukrainian crisis. The agreement to withdraw from the Ukrainian crisis is being discussed without Ukraine, which once again emphasizes that it is the object of the struggle of the imperialist powers.
    So, the guys of the southeast, although you are not as many as you would like, but you have all the hope not to merge your republics, hold the junta and you do your job, prepare referendums and do not succumb to provocations. According to the responses of the people, we judge the attitude towards Of Russia. (%) - ny We need at least 70% for the Russian Federation.
  8. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m April 18 2014 07: 14
    Putin has repeatedly proved that he is the grandmaster of political strategy. I think that in this case too, we will be pleasantly surprised by the elegance and legal purity of the resolution of the issue. For this, there are now both means and political will.
    1. Grenz
      Grenz April 18 2014 07: 58
      Mikhail m
      I support very much your point of view.
      The dignity of the president, and we (as well as the West) were convinced - the ability to hold a pause.
      Yesterday at a meeting, he admitted among other things, that the very "polite people" were Russian servicemen. But after that, when the intensity of passions subsided. And that, no screams. As they say: "The train left ..."
      So is the Southeast. The President has repeatedly stated - he always monitors the situation very carefully.
      Please note that often in shots among self-defense fighters, silhouettes surprisingly similar to "polite people" appear. And they're not really hiding.
      So no panic.
      When necessary, a phrase will be heard, as in Crimea: "There is no place for Bendera in the South and Southeast of Ukraine. The Russian people live here as well. And we do not abandon our own people."
      Then the command will follow: "By cars!"
      In the meantime, let's exercise in wit - the reasons for the junta are presented as much as you like.
  9. Quantum
    Quantum April 18 2014 07: 29
    In Geneva, according to the State Department, the US has achieved a lot by linking Russia
    non-interference obligations. However, according to the Pentagon, USA
    will facilitate the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Russia will have to
    silently watch this or slowly arm the protesters in the south
    eastern Ukraine. This will have to do, as the junta will unleash the total
    mopping up rebellious areas. There will be no real elections, the topic of the referendum and
    federalization will be closed. In the near future, a civil war awaits Ukraine. What will be Russia's position?
  10. parus2nik
    parus2nik April 18 2014 07: 39
    Written heartily and correctly, there is one but ... Russia has no loyal and reliable allies in Europe, the same European Slavic brothers, not brothers ... and the second, but Russia does not, despite some successes, that economic and the ideological component that was in the USSR, at the slightest failure or the strengthening of sanctions, the "swamp" from all the cracks with a cry, but we said, and we warned ... aaaaa again there is no sausage, Putin's officials ate everything ... other, other ..
  11. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 April 18 2014 07: 48
    from the Don.
    But the military-strategic border of Russia must pass along the Dnieper and Dniester.
    So it will be, there is no doubt! But it takes time for the people of the Center, especially the young ones, to slander the banderlogs to the bottom of power. That the brains will be straightened and without debts! Hurry in no hurry! And nobody will merge anyone!
  12. sv68
    sv68 April 18 2014 07: 52
    time will dot all and but Kholmogorov is right and only ukroina herself must decide how to live on
    1. andj61
      andj61 April 18 2014 08: 42
      In the current situation, Ukraine itself will not be able to decide on anything. Previously, the situation was 50x50. Now there is no Crimea there, many are zombified by propaganda, so 60% will scream - beat the MOSCKLA, try to drown performances in the blood, and 40% - fight against this. First calm down gently. But during this time, the non-default point can be passed if it has not already passed.
    2. Simple
      Simple April 18 2014 09: 36
      Quote: sv68
      ukroina herself must decide how to continue to live

      She herself can no longer decide.
      Ukraine will not be "neutral".
      According to the definition of the USA and the West, it will be anti-Russian.
  13. Odysseus
    Odysseus April 18 2014 08: 15
    Given the managerial and military collapse of the junta, at the moment, the most effective would be to provide financial and organizational assistance to resistance in the Southeast. The forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics act heroically, but are fragmented and chaotic.
    We need a clear organization and we must spread the uprising throughout Novorossia.
    As regards the introduction of troops, this opportunity should always be kept up in the event of the massive use by the junta of heavy military equipment against the rebels.
    The minimum plan is the federalization of Ukraine and the preservation of its non-aligned status. The maximum plan is a military operation against Kiev with the return of the legitimate authorities of Ukraine and the creation of a friendly Ukraine (without Galicia). An option with a corridor to the Crimea and Transnistria and the inclusion of New Russia into Russia (or with its existence as an independent state) lies somewhere between these two possibilities.
    1. andj61
      andj61 April 18 2014 08: 44
      Very good options!
  14. andj61
    andj61 April 18 2014 08: 36
    But the military-strategic border of Russia must pass along the Dnieper and Dniester.

    The military-strategic border of Russia should be on the border of the USSR. Political-military can also pass along the Dnieper-Dniester. You can no longer give up NATO territory. Therefore, yesterday Lavrov defended the neutral status of Ukraine. But Lavrov’s position in the Southeast is somehow slurred.
    Maybe, in addition to what was in the official statements, he agreed on something with Kerry, which is too early to disclose?
    1. Simple
      Simple April 18 2014 09: 38
      Quote: andj61
      Therefore, yesterday Lavrov defended the neutral status of Ukraine.

      Ukraine will not be "neutral".
      According to the definition of the USA and the West, it will be anti-Russian.
  15. tank64rus
    tank64rus April 18 2014 08: 39
    The worst thing is the agents of influence of the West in our power. They must be removed. And in Ukraine, not Russian tanks will come soon, but General Hunger and Colonel Poverty. The Americans understand this and therefore want us to continue to subsidize Ukraine. They themselves do not really want to part with money.
  16. zzz
    zzz April 18 2014 08: 42
    But the military-strategic border of Russia must pass along the Dnieper and Dniester. This is the most important thing that I would like to hear as a fait accompli.
  17. GRune
    GRune April 18 2014 08: 48
    Put a minus did not like the text ... Industrialization is impossible without the southeast of another state - well, nonsense ... The partition of Ukraine by groups of militarists is like Julia Kiev will take, Poroshenko Lviv or what ??? Yanukovych’s regime fell, so Russia is doomed to intervene. No-fly zone over the Southeast ...
    IMHO: The author of the President of the Russian Federation urgently !!! Then we’ll heal.
  18. mamont5
    mamont5 April 18 2014 08: 54
    One thing is clear, the junta cannot be allowed to the Southeast. At any price. Otherwise, then you will have to pay an even larger and already 100% bloody price.
  19. Normal
    Normal April 18 2014 09: 11
    "A ground operation is a last resort (but if necessary, you have to go for it without hesitation)."

    So peacetime ends. Everyone went crazy and how they broke the chain

    Well then ... nothing to do

    If war is inevitable ...
    We have only one thing left - to WIN!
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov April 18 2014 09: 17
      Quote: Normal
      If war is inevitable ...

      Probably yes.
      Quote: Normal
      We have only one thing left - to WIN!

      Black-footed, will be the last president of the USA-Wang hi So we will WIN, although the price of victory will not be small.
      1. Normal
        Normal April 18 2014 09: 57
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        So we will WIN, although the price of victory will not be small.

        Do you have children?
        I have three.
        The youngest is 3 years old ...
  20. Semenov
    Semenov April 18 2014 09: 31
    Putin pauses. The army is decaying, the population is impoverished, the National Guard and the "Right Sector" are combat-ready (and that is conditionally), Tymoshenko is gathering his army (resistance movement). The problem is in the leaders and the organization, it is not for nothing that there were no representatives from SE in Geneva, although Lavrov declared the desirability of their presence. As soon as the worthy appears (as in Crimea), the movement should begin. To what extent it will continue is difficult to say, but preferably until Poland.
  21. Velikoruss
    Velikoruss April 18 2014 10: 30
    Now the main thing is that it underlines the expressed support for the confidence of the population of the Southeast that Russia will not surrender them. To do this, it is clear to the whole world to explain that the use of the Ukrainian army against civilians can provoke our reaction, similar to 2008 in South Ossetia. And we will not allow the Kosovo scenario. There is nothing to tolerate. To our specialists in information operations, sprinkle pepper under the tail so that through YouTube they would flood the West with truthful video information in languages ​​he understands. By the way, it was suggested along the roads from the western border to place the correct banners. Good idea IMHO
    The implicit material support of ours will also not be superfluous. When the men are at the barricades, do not distract them with thoughts of an empty family refrigerator.
  22. klavyr
    klavyr April 18 2014 11: 32
    ... it is only from the Russian point of view that we are still neutral. From the point of view of Ukrainian politicians and the zombie commoner there, from the point of view of NATO cabinets and rhetoric, we are already fighting. And even if we don’t move a single battalion and lift a single helicopter, in the eyes of Ukraine and the West we will still be a warrior ...
    - Yeah! If we recall South Ossetia in 2008, there was no such long-term "processing" of public opinion as it is now in Ukraine, and then it took 2 years for the West to recognize the Georgian aggression. In this case, I fully support the author and believe that the "speed" should not be reduced (it is better to increase them)
  23. navigator
    navigator April 18 2014 12: 02
    Awesome. I wonder where he served? It’s painfully brave. And how he understands military matters!
  24. Navy7981
    Navy7981 April 18 2014 12: 19
    At least tell me what, but I, like the author, consider Ukraine to be a completely failed state. If in 23 years instead of a country that has received all the opportunities, to be Great without irony !!! state, it turned out, what happened, then besides incredible regret and bitterness, there are no other feelings. 23 years Ukraine was looking for who is to blame. For 23 years, Ukraine has cared and cherished this feeling of the offended, unhappy, oppressed ... Of course, we also have all sorts of garbage to x ..... and They steal, betray, do not build and do not do what they should, and in my opinion, despite the president's "optimism", it is necessary to change something inside the country. Change a lot! But I definitely do not consider myself offended, and I am convinced that I live in a Great country.
  25. Umnichka
    Umnichka April 18 2014 15: 16
    Botanical reasoning has already been pulled up - let’s wait, let it mature, etc. The war has been ANNOUNCED to us - specifically, all the features, not through our fault, have been passed, either we or us. Without ardor, systematically help the Southeast, at least to the Dnieper. But actually leave Galicia only Europe. And totally return the truth of history to schools and the media. To wait further will be worse.