American private military companies (PMCs) can become a detonator of an armed standoff in the Square. The US intervention in the crisis in Ukraine with the hands of mercenaries in the event of massive sweeps of leaders or executions of peaceful demonstrations in the context of the growing economic and political crisis will inevitably lead to civil war, and when NATO forces attempt to occupy the country - to a large-scale guerrilla war.
Crimea joined Russia, and this reality is de facto recognized. Negotiations of Lavrov and Kerry reached an impasse - the parties did not manage to agree on anything, despite the fact that judging by the hasty change in the schedule of visits of the US Secretary of State, this meeting was given special importance and great hopes were placed on it.
The Ukrainian illegitimate authorities, portraying the non-recognition of the fact of the annexation of the Crimea to Russia, nevertheless take such steps that few expected of them. Suddenly, Arseniy Yatsenyuk speaks on Ukrainian television with a statement about the possibility of a certain "legalization" of the Russian language, and he delivers this speech in Russian. He also speaks of the need to improve relations with Russia. He is echoed by Vitaliy Klitschko, who also speaks in support of Petro Poroshenko in Russian, thus demonstrating his benevolent attitude to the idea of equal rights for the Russian language in Ukraine. And this is in conditions when, in their opinion, Russia took away a part of the territory from them - the Crimea, which they had only recently intended to return with the use of military force. When Russia in the Ukrainian media is presented as the main enemy of the Ukrainian people.
At the same time, there is information that the Kiev usurpers are bringing the "Scythian gold" to the West, as well as the gold reserves of Ukraine with a total value of more than 20 billion dollars.
One of the most prominent and most odious leaders of the Right Sector, Alexander Muzychko (Sashko Bily), was killed in Rovno. After the terrible statements about the murder of the leaders of this extremist and very efficient organization with a sufficiently powerful armed potential, and an unsuccessful night assault on the building of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, no real action is taken. The head of the “Right Sector” Dmitry Yarosh is nominated for the presidency of Ukraine, thereby becoming involved in the political process. True, he most likely does not have any particular chances for success, provided that the elections are held in a relatively calm atmosphere.
All this is happening in the conditions of a developing economic and financial crisis. In the near future, incomes of the population will be significantly reduced, and the cost of the most important products will increase significantly, in particular, the price of gas for the population will increase by more than one and a half times.
A new stage in the development of Ukrainian drama begins. In conditions when the players on the Ukrainian scene seek to hide their plans and actions, the analysis of the features of these or other events makes it possible to identify the driving “springs” and predict their likely development in the near future.
All signs of the American approach
First of all, it is interesting to analyze the features of the murder of Muzychko. This is a very significant event that explains a lot. It happened at night in a busy area of the city - in the cafe "Three Crucians", where Sashko Bily celebrated the birthday of his friend. Several minibuses and jeeps drove up to this cafe, from which armed men got off. Entering the cafe, they put all those present on the floor. Muzychko tried to escape. However, he was wounded in the leg. Approaching him and tearing up his shirt, making sure that he was not wearing a bulletproof vest, one of the arrivals killed Bilogo with a PM from his heart. After that, the attackers hurriedly disappeared, which is uncharacteristic of the actions of special forces that are solving the task of capturing the criminal.
Shortly before the murder, Muzychko appealed to his associates and the Prosecutor General of Ukraine with a statement that the new Kiev authorities, who, in his opinion, are beginning to destroy their political opponents, want to liquidate him.
It is interesting to understand who killed Muzychko. It is possible to calculate at least approximately the organizers and perpetrators of a crime, relying on two aspects - the presence of interested forces and the style of execution.
You can immediately exclude the Russian trace in this matter. Russia did not need the liquidation of Bilogo and other leaders of the Right Sector, who politically discredit the entire Kiev government. Does not correspond to the Russian and Soviet traditions and the style of execution of the murder. Judging by the well-known similar actions, the Russian special services prefer to act quietly, without attracting attention. And our special services could not recruit such a number of fighters in Ukraine, organize their actions and technically provide them in a hostile environment in Western Ukraine.
But for the Kiev authorities, the Right Sector and its leaders are a real threat. Therefore, Yatsenyuk and his comrades are certainly interested in the elimination of the apex of this movement with a view to its disorganization and taking under control. However, the current Ukrainian rulers do not have effective state power structures, which they themselves defeated during the period of confrontation with Yanukovych and after the removal of the president from power. Therefore, to hold such an action for them would be very difficult.
Another thing is the United States. They are extremely interested in taming the "Right Sector". After all, he actually threatens their entire scenario of establishing American control over Ukraine by bringing the puppet Yatsenyuk and his team to power. During the “Arab Spring”, the Muslim Brotherhood was able to seize power and thwarted American plans to restore undivided US control over North Africa’s resources. In Ukraine, the "Right Sector" plays a similar role.
The murder style is consistent with the American tradition - demonstrative, with the involvement of a large number of performers, publicly. So they killed the US President Kennedy, Osama bin Laden was also destroyed. In fact, the murder of Muzychko has the features of a military operation, because the number of involved personnel can be estimated, judging by the number of vehicles used, in 30 – 40 people. For the Ukrainian special services brought up in the Soviet tradition, this method of action is uncharacteristic. But the traditions of the American CIA is quite consistent. Although local media claim that the direct execution of the murder was carried out by Ukrainian special forces, this should not be believed. The organization of the operation has all the hallmarks of the American approach. And the dissemination of information about the participation of Ukrainian special forces may simply be a covering operation.
The idea that the murder of Bilogo happened with the participation of foreign mercenaries was expressed by the former head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), General Yakimenko: “To eliminate Muzychko, no big forces were needed. Enough of one detachment, which, perhaps, was taken from the side even from foreign special services. Because the employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine would hardly have gone to that. "Right Sector" will respond and respond toughly. " He also suggests that all this is just the beginning. Mercenaries from the American private military company (PMC) Greystone Limited, one of the divisions of the infamous Blackwater USA, are likely to continue the destruction of objectionable from among both right-wing radicals and pro-Russian supporters, all who stand in the way of the current Kiev authorities. That is, the American PMCs actively intervene in the internal politics of Ukraine.
American PMC - a tool of the US authorities
At the same time, the emergence of representatives of American PMCs from a legal point of view is not considered as the official US armed intervention in the affairs of Ukraine, since such organizations are not part of official state structures. They are commercial organizations that provide a certain range of services, although very specific ones. However, this almost always PMCs are controlled by the state and work in its interests. This is the fundamental difference between the private security contractors and the classic mercenary and terrorist detachments. In fact, the "privacy" of private security companies has a camouflage character. The image of “privacy” gives them considerable freedom in choosing the means to achieve goals, which regular armies do not have, which makes them a particularly effective tool for achieving political goals by the state, especially considering their ability to use “dirty” methods.
As a rule, PMCs are closely connected with the special services of the respective states. Thus, Blackwater USA and, accordingly, Greystone Limited are actively used by the CIA. The use of PMCs is already included in the governing documents defining the actions of the US armed forces. Thus, the new “Operational Concept of the US Army on 2016 – 2028” provides for the involvement of private security committees to localize unrest in internal conflicts, suppress armed uprisings, and combat terrorism. That is, tasks that previously were traditionally related exclusively to the prerogative of state power structures are already included in the range of activities of PMCs.
Hence the important conclusion that the appearance of employees of the American PMC Greystone Limited on the territory of Ukraine and the beginning of their vigorous activity should be qualified precisely as US armed intervention in the internal affairs of Ukraine.
Today it is reliably known about the arrival of employees of this PMC in 300 to Kiev. The answer to the question of what tasks they will be used for is obvious: in the conditions of low capacity of the law enforcement agencies of Ukraine and its security service, PMCs are designed to suppress protest sentiments in the eastern regions of the country and neutralize their leaders, and also to take control of the “freemen” ".
The limited number of employees of the American PMCs in Ukraine and the well-known principles of work determine that the main method of their activity in solving this task will be to isolate the people who lead the protest movements in south-eastern Ukraine and the Right Sector, and if necessary, their physical liquidation. It is absolutely obvious that disperse the demonstrations, as the Ukrainian militia does without weapons, they will not. Such a course of action is uncharacteristic for the units of Blackwater USA, which is followed by a bloody trail from Afghanistan and Iraq.
However, it is possible that PMC Greystone Limited will solve the problem of creating the conditions for the military occupation of Ukraine by NATO forces. It is no accident that NATO troops are concentrated in Poland and other countries of the North Atlantic Alliance bordering Ukraine, and not only aviationbut also land. With the approaching economic collapse in Ukraine, mass protests by the population are inevitable. Neither the police, nor the SBU, nor even the small contingents of PMCs will be able to disperse them without the massive use of weapons. But they will be able to arrange a bloody massacre, which, most likely, will lead to the deployment of armed confrontation with the authorities and foreign mercenaries.
So, according to media reports, only in the Luhansk region the number of resistance fighters can reach 20 thousands, and with the exacerbation of the situation - grow to 70 and more than thousands. Already today they have more than five thousand small arms and a large supply of ammunition. A coordination headquarters has already been established there, a representative of which named these figures. It may well be assumed that organizations of resistance that are comparable in number exist in other areas of the south-east of Ukraine.
The Right Sector also has numerous, well-organized and well-armed formations. In an attempt to begin its destruction and the elimination of the apex of the movement, one should expect fierce armed resistance.
Under these conditions, attempts at mass sweep-up of leaders or execution of peaceful demonstrations will inevitably lead to large-scale armed confrontation, essentially a civil war. The prerequisites for its occurrence are already sufficient and will be even greater. Unsolvable economic problems, the coming to political power of an oligarchy against the background of mass demonstrations on the Maidan against oligarchs in general, the conflict of the elites - the oligarchic and emerging radical nationalist - all of these factors virtually exclude the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
The path to war
The elite-oligarchic group Poroshenko, dominating the information field and in the economy of Ukraine, seeks to crush their opponents with economic methods and information technologies.
Having a great influence in the legislative and executive bodies, Yulia Tymoshenko will try to neutralize the economic and informational superiority of her main competitor, relying on administrative tools. At the same time, realizing her weakness in the confrontation with Poroshenko, she will begin to look for allies among radical nationalists.
And the latter in the face of their leaders - the relatively “moderate” Tyagnibok and the extreme radical Yarosh, possessing armed groups, developed, well-organized and highly ideologically motivated party structures as the main “trump card”, will strive to make the main tool of political struggle mass actions - the new Maidan .
The conflict of these groups will create a political and organizational basis for a quick and acute civil confrontation.
Serious economic problems, attempts to solve them at the expense of the population form the basis of a social explosion. Against this background, a qualitatively higher standard of living of the Crimean population will play a destabilizing role. The example of Crimea can seriously strengthen the pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine, especially in its south-eastern regions, which already today suffer from a violation of Russian-Ukrainian economic ties. Economic factors will ensure the mass scale of the civil confrontation in Ukraine.
In these conditions, even a small amount of spilled blood will lead to the transition of civil opposition in the armed. And here, as already noted, American PMCs can play a special role. As a result, the conflict will acquire the features of a civil war.
Its emergence on the territory of Ukraine will serve as a pretext for the military occupation of the country by NATO troops under the pretext of “peace enforcement”, just as it was done in certain territories of Yugoslavia in 1999.
In this case, it is very likely to assume that guerrilla war will unfold throughout Ukraine. On the one hand, the militarized formations of the south-east of Ukraine will begin an armed struggle against the invaders. Under the conditions of the inevitable collapse of Ukrainian industry and its seizure by foreign owners, accompanied by mass layoffs, increased all-round pressure from puppet authorities on Russians and other citizens sympathetic to Russia, under the influence of ideological, ethnic and political tensions towards Russia, the guerrilla movement will become quite widespread. Repression will only lead to its strengthening. It is natural to expect that this movement in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine will receive personnel support by volunteers from Russia, who can provide material support by supplying the weapons and other technical means necessary to wage an effective guerrilla war.
In the west of Ukraine it is also possible to deploy a partisan movement against the invaders. Its basis can be that part of the radical nationalists who cannot find a place for themselves in the system of puppet power, as well as convinced fighters for the independence of Ukraine. Having a good proficiency, relying on the experience of the struggle against Soviet power in the first years after World War II, they can deploy effective partisan actions. In this, they will be favored by the extremely advantageous conditions of a mountain-wooded area for waging such a war. In those places, even the Wehrmacht could not cope with the partisans. The Soviet troops of the NKVD (MGB) solved this task largely due to the economic successes of the USSR as a whole. The occupants and their puppets should not rely on such a thing - under such conditions, there is no basis for the economic prosperity of Ukraine in such conditions.
As a result, the Western occupiers will leave Ukraine, as they left Iraq and leave Afghanistan. The people of Ukraine will win. However, the price will be incredibly high - a completely crushed country and huge casualties among the population, a multimillion-dollar army of refugees. This can not be allowed.