Without bills and comments:
"... First, about the situation, in general. Moods in the Southeast are waiting, there are relatively few activists on both sides of the conflict. These are not network activists," mouse and keyboard fighters ", but those who can , wants and acts in real life. Ethnic Ukrainians of the Southeast as a whole are behind the junta, are neutral at best, Russians are sharply opposed. But all these “for” and “against” do not yet go beyond kitchens and conversations among friends and work.
Active people make porridge, make history, the masses are connected in the following stages, there is nothing new here. The dynamics are such that the masses will soon join the conflict, and this will not be due to bloody excesses, but for purely economic reasons. On an empty stomach, the man in the street thinks better.
Maydanschiki. Those who support the Maidan, make an impression of completely inadequate, rageless mosseks, lowered from the leash. Any civilized dialogue and attempt to understand the situation calmly, with the help of logic and arguments to explain the essence of the processes occurring in Ukraine, cause them to have a fit of hysteria. Therefore, now there are many conflict situations in everyday life.
The information war against the junta in Ukraine is currently lost by us, at least some truth can be learned from the Internet, which is far from everyone. In general, “Internet users” are young people who are for the coup, and very often they support the most radical and frostbitten, of the same right-wing members. What to do, youthful maximalism.
A part of the population is saved from brainwashing by satellite TV, which few also have (the main sample is widespread. In the private sector, cable TV mostly works in high-rise buildings, but Russian channels, as you know, have already cut off). The zombies of the population are capital, judging by their acquaintances and neighbors. Putschists, their media, act brazenly, assertively and in conditions of no alternative, naturally win.
As a result, at the moment, the population of not only Western Ukraine, but even in the South-East is negative towards Russia, at best neutral. This is with regard to local Ukrainians. There is no need to harbor any illusions, the centenary Ukrainization bore fruit, the myth of the brotherly people has been completely dispelled. However, for the time being there is a significant part of Ukrainians (those who are from mixed families, have worked for a long time or studied in Russia) who are pro-Russian, there are no less than local Russians. So not everything is so bad, “if that”, there is someone to rely on.
The Russians, of course, have always been, are and will be for reunification with Russia and are now waiting for help from Russia and real steps on the part of the Kremlin to protect the world's largest Russian diaspora. Another point is that those who speak for the camera on behalf of the Russians beat themselves in the chest “nobody oppresses us here,” it's all bought fools (oligarchs allocate huge amounts of money to anti-Russian propaganda), often local Jews, I know for sure from my acquaintances . Many Jews have not yet understood that they are with the Russians in the same boat, and wagging their tail, curtsying "both yours and ours" (ala Dopa and Gepa) will not work for a long time. For the sake of interest, at least the Bandera / Pravosekov forums read that “revolutions” are going to do with them. Looks like the recent history of the Jews has not learned anything.
Now among the Russian and Russian-speaking (pro-Russian) Ukrainians living in Ukraine, one of the main problems is the organization of resistance of the junta that came to power. We do not have a single political force; there is no single ideological platform either. People are disconnected and confused. In Russia, they should understand and draw conclusions that it could not have been otherwise, the Kremlin spat 23, from a high bell tower on the Russians in Ukraine, and now they are waiting for a miracle that the Russians here quickly self-organize and throw the junta themselves. Blessed is he who believes. I hope that now the situation has changed dramatically, there is nowhere else to betray and retreat.
Without informational and financial assistance from outside, any form of protest will be crushed here within a month: a couple of weeks is enough for mobilization, grinding of units and initial training of national guardsmen, and then a tough sweep of the South-East collected by the SBU and kindly provided by the Natsik. . Kharkiv and Donetsk are only the beginning and an easy warm-up, any manifestations of disagreement, not to mention separatism, will be destroyed at the root. Lyashko and Sasha Muzychko are not exceptions, this is the rule, everything is there, there is even worse, take a word.
You probably noticed, the compromises do not go on a single issue, not on language, not on referendum, nor on federalization. But in this fanaticism their weakness, thanks to their foolishness, they have already lost the Crimea, I believe and hope - they will also lose Southeast. But in this situation, you need to act subtly.
In Russia, sentiments in Ukraine are poorly understood now; I looked at Russian television channels for the sake of interest, there the presentation of information is generally correct, but wrong conclusions are being drawn. In runet is the same. No Russian troops need to enter now. Even those who are neutral and are only beginning to see clearly where the putschists are leading the country will perceive this as an invasion and aggression. It is necessary to act in English, to rely on local forces, first of all the Ukrainian employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the military. It’s still a loyal to Russia environment, there’s someone to work with, but as time goes on, the top officials at an accelerated pace are completely changed to Westerners, even the middle commanders are cleaned, so if you don’t manage to organize a counterrevolution in March or April, then it will be very difficult, and only big blood ... "
"... How are things in Ukraine in terms of preparing for a hypothetical military confrontation with Russia. In this matter, many myths have already accumulated on the Russian side, which will have to be dispelled by facts.
First of all, I want to say about the military mobilization. She's coming here. Hidden, unseen, creaking, but coming. Example. In the Dnepropetrovsk region, the order is given to recruit into the army of seventeen hundred people. A little, but multiply by the number of regions of Ukraine and get a solid figure. In the loyal Western regions, mobilize more and faster, there is a massive Maidan of the Brain, this is understandable.
What is important is the fact of the continued mobilization and coalescence of military units. As it happens in the West and the East, I don’t presume to judge, the mobilization in the Center is tight.
The military commissars tear their hair, by hook or by crook, luring the persons in military service to the army. Hysteria on the Maidan and bravely scribbling in nete, how soon “they will spread the katsapnya on the wall” is one thing, but to go to war, to risk life and health is another, therefore there are no queues near the military registration and enlistment offices. The influx of volunteers or some high activity did not see either on the first day of mobilization, and even more so now. Maybe the situation is different in zapadenschina, but I doubt something strongly about this, there are few fanatics who are ready to die for oligarchy.
As for military equipment and logistics. There is equipment in Ukraine. As it does not seem strange, but not everything has been sold / stolen, much more can ride and even fly. Kharkov tank the Malyshev plant can quickly repair and upgrade existing armored vehicles, and there are many of them in Ukraine. For the same purposes, you can use factories in Kiev and Nikolaev. With rifle weapons There are no problems in Ukraine. Combat ready aviation few, but it is also there, and shock and fighter. Its small size and poor training of pilots are compensated by air defense systems, including MANPADS. Specialists of PMCs can provide logistics, the same goes for the development of military operations.
Many people do not know, but most PMCs are not focused on training and “supplying” militants, but on providing other services, primarily an organizational plan. The heads of the Ukrainian generals are sharpened for anything, just not for the performance of their direct duties, foreign "friends" from NATO and PMCs can compensate for this flaw. Such a Ukrainian army, such “fighters” will confront the Russian army in the event of a conflict. It’s impossible to say that this is a strong army, that it’s too weak and not capable, so I recommend uankozakidateli to temper their ardor and realize that the war, the invasion of Ukraine is an extreme measure and now it’s necessary to focus on local pro-Russian forces. It takes time to organize, establish connections, at least a month.
Another thing created by the National Guard under, but about her a little later. Now about what is being mobilized. Obviously, not for an attack on the Crimea, because even the latest Hutsul swineherd is clear that this will be suicide for both the Ukrainian army and the current regime. Troops in the regions bordering the Crimea are being built up exclusively for defense. The logic of the coup is absolutely correct. Those who have been to Crimea know well the main problem and weak point of the peninsula. This is WATER, or rather its absence. Everyone understands that in the event of water supply being cut off, and it is technically quite simple to do this by blocking the locks, the Crimea will not last even two months.
What Aksenov says about the control over the situation, about some pipelines from Kuban, is all fantasy. Apparently, Crimeans intend to expand their sphere of influence to the North, it is a matter of life and death, there are no options here. Therefore, no one in the Kuban canals digs in the direction of the Crimea, does not import pipes, and does not build pumping stations. The Crimea may, on the strength of a blockade, last for half a year on reserve and imported water, diesel power generators and humanitarian aid. This is not an option, and this is understood not only in the Crimea, but also in Kiev. The UA grouping in the Black Sea coast is being built up exclusively for blockade or deaf defense, if provocation is organized in the Crimea in order to unleash an armed conflict.
For the same purposes, in three regions: Odessa, Nikolaev and Kherson, a total inspection of trains and vehicles leaving the Crimea is being carried out. Extinguish any manifestations of discontent with the locals. It must be admitted that for the Kiev junta this is the only correct tactic. Formally, they do not break anything, do not attack anyone. Public opinion, if Russia attacks, will generally be on their side. But the Crimea will be stifled, no matter what Aksenov sang, saying that "it is unprofitable for Ukraine." You would think that “there” everyone measures by financial gain. Therefore, the army group in the Black Sea region will be increased and strengthened by the most combat-ready units, including on the border with Transnistria - why, I think, and so it is understandable.
Now about Natsik, I mean the "National Guard of Ukraine." The fact that it was originally sharpened to perform punitive-protective functions has already been said enough, but the fact that this is actually the legalization of maydanovsky militants has so far been mentioned in passing. I want to note that these same Maydanovsky militants still do not represent a single force. They have different goals, sometimes diametrically opposed. "Right Sector", "Self-Defense Maidan" (the most numerous grouping), "Common cause" and "Warriors of Narnia" have different commanders, sponsors, ideologies and tasks.
The only way to smooth out the existing contradictions, which are already pouring into armed clashes, is possible only within the framework of a single structure, which the National Guard is intended to become. Therefore, the creation of NG is caused not only and not so much by the need for militants (they already are), in their training (they are quite suitable for punitive functions), but with the goal of subordinating this motley rabble to a single command, thereby ending the Makhnovshchina and atamanism. As can be seen, in this case the coup act absolutely correctly and adequately to the situation, which cannot be said about the actions of the Kremlin, which acts spontaneously and reflexively.
Of course, you can fantasize about some mysterious “cunning plan of Putin”, which has a trump card, but now it is obvious that the opponent has the initiative. And the victory in the Crimea is not the merit of Putin and Co., but above all the merit of the Crimeans who took the initiative. Putin's “foresight” is Chernomyrdin and Zurabov, this is drinking and eating at buffet receptions in honor of the abstract “Russian-Ukrainian friendship” of tens of millions of budget money that were not given in principle to numerous pro-Russian organizations of Ukraine, this is the direct and indirect economic support of the Russophobic leadership of Ukraine, all 23 years of existence of this understate.
Therefore, hats and capsies prevailing in Russia, we who live in Ukraine are not entirely clear. It is not clear how the Crimea problem will be solved if it is isolated (there are already problems in the banking sector, and this is just the beginning) that they are going to undertake in Russia to protect the Russian Southeast, except for the next "expression of the deepest concern" by the Russian Foreign Ministry and much more.
Russia is now hardly using the economic levers of pressure on the putschists. The free (unpaid) gas still shushes through pipes to Ukraine, cooperation continues in the military-industrial complex, contracts with local producers are not broken, in fact, direct and indirect sponsorship of the Ukrainian economy continues. The best way to visually show what a fake “independence” of Ukraine costs is to cut off all economic ties with it for a couple of months. The Russians will survive this, do not be afraid for us, but for the fans of “separatism” this will be a good, clear lesson. The best way to teach a fool a lesson is to leave it to yourself. Having enjoyed real independence, those who are now loudest at the Maidan are bringing the bag with the heads of Sasha Bely, Pyagnyboka and Lyashko to the Russian border. There are no idiots to heat the 21 century in the house with wood and dry dung.
As in the case of the Crimea, the hope remains for the mistakes of the Kiev junta, for their provocations, foolishness and inability / unwillingness to compromise. So far, our strength, for the most part, is in their weaknesses and shortcomings. This is bad, this lag in pace, but at the moment, not only the Kremlin contributes to the awakening and consolidation of the South-East, but to the authorities of Kiev and the armed gangs of Yaroshjugend.