Military Review

USA - China: a new deterrence strategy

33
To solve this problem, it is proposed to use ground-based PKR deployed in the West Asia Pacific Region.


In one of the speeches on the formation of the US strategic doctrine in January 2012, President Obama stated that American interests in the field of economics and national security are closely linked to processes of a different nature that occur in the space between the western Pacific Ocean, South Asia and the Indian Ocean . He noted that the United States will pay close attention to this part of the world and, as a result, will change the intended tactics of using American troops and their allies in the event of an armed conflict in the region.

The need for such changes in East Asia has been described in scientific literature, in which the ability of the United States to protect and defend its interests in this part of the world has been called into question. For several years, some experts have argued that China, by deploying weapons that block access to certain areas (anti-access / area-denial, A2 / AD), which are of vital interest to Americans and their allies, has changed the strategic balance in the western region. Pacific in their favor. According to other analysts, due to progress in the field of armaments, regional powers can significantly threaten the dominance of Americans (including at the global level).

USA - China: a new deterrence strategy

As a result, the US Army is currently introducing various new concepts that will ensure a stable military-strategic balance in the field of conventional armed forces. One of them is Air Sea Battle, which unites the efforts of the US Navy and the US Air Force to protect American bases in the region from the threat of rocket attacks, change the balance in offensive weapons, improve the stability of submarine operations, and eliminate vulnerabilities of various satellite systems. control, monitoring, reconnaissance and surveillance, improving the interaction of various types and types of troops, improving the capabilities of electronic intelligence and cybernetic operations. The main method of its implementation will be the integration of ground forces, naval forces, air forces, space technology, cyber warfare divisions to deter and, if necessary, destroy troops of an alleged enemy using advanced weapons to block access and block a certain zone (A2 / AD).

Despite the fact that such ground-based weapons play a significant role in the A2 / AD strategy, their role in the implementation of the Air C Battle concept has not yet been fully explored. At the same time, they could significantly and at relatively low cost increase the capabilities of the American armed forces in this region. One approach is to develop similar low-cost weapons for a significant increase in China’s military spending, and if the containment system fails and the conflict enters an open stage, to reduce the damage that China can inflict on Asian states.

The effectiveness of the CRP in the APR

In connection with the above-mentioned changes in the strategies of the United States and China, the use of land-based anti-ship missiles (RCC) is a pressing issue. If American troops stationed in the region have the potential to use them, they can be used to perform a wide range of combat missions: from protecting the interests of the US allies and partners in the region to creating a naval blockade of a potential aggressor in the event of the outbreak of hostilities.

Currently in the region are located about 45 types of missiles, which are in service with the armies of China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei. Tactical and technical characteristics of the most common of them and planned for adoption are shown in the table.


RAND analysts (RAND) evaluated the effectiveness of RCC use based on their technical capabilities and the impact of the American PLA Navy access blocking strategy if they prefer active combat operations against the allies and partners of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) . The main approach of analysts was the provision that the maximum deterrence of the PLA Navy in the territorial waters of the PRC (that is, ground-based PKRs should be placed on the first row of islands blocking China’s further access to the Pacific Ocean) will have a decisive influence on their combat operations in the region. They recognized that the approach to the containment of the PLA Navy using only ground-based PKR is ineffective, and therefore analyzed the role that this type of weapon can play in a comprehensive deterrence strategy.

According to the RAND Corporation, the use of ground-based anti-ship missiles will significantly complicate the operations of the PLA Army and Navy when the open conflict with the allies and partners of the United States begins. This weapon is highly mobile (except when it is stationary) and is relatively easy to use. As a result, the PLA Navy will have to use a much larger amount of military resources to detect and intercept ground-based anti-ship missiles. In addition, anti-ship missiles will provide substantial assistance if the United States and its allies decide to establish a long-range naval blockade of the PRC.

RAND specialists conducted a comprehensive analysis of the role of the above-mentioned type of weapons in the strategy of military deterrence in China. It is believed that in the course of equipping the US contingent, which can be deployed in allied and partner countries in East Asia, relatively small material resources will be spent on land-based missiles. For their normal functioning, in addition to the US military, the participation of the armies of the countries in whose territory these missiles will be located will be required. It will also become necessary to have access to the systems of these states that will provide target identification, rocket control based on the information received, and the operation of the anti-ship missiles.

It is assumed that the above-mentioned complexes based on American and local elements will protect all the straits that China may have access to. In addition to land-based anti-ship missiles, in the event of the establishment of a sea blockade, China will have to use means of intercepting and screening merchant ships, such as a helicopter aviation or coastal protection vessels of regional states. In the event that, during the discussion of the strategy, the choice falls on the use of local rather than American ground-based PRKs, they will have to be integrated within a single management system.

During the analysis of the likelihood of introducing the blockade of the People's Republic of China, specialists thoroughly studied the possibility of covering ground-based RCCs of each of the straits through which the PLA Navy could break into the Pacific Ocean if hostilities began.

Malacca, Sunda and Lomboksky Straits

The relatively narrow Strait of Malacca is of strategic importance. The nearby Indonesia and Malaysia have significant ground-based PKR arsenals that can effectively intercept targets over the entire length of the strait in 730 kilometers. Although RCC batteries can be destroyed, guaranteed destruction of these weapons without the participation of the PLA ground forces will be very difficult due to the small size of the RCC launchers. Land-based anti-ship missiles that have a greater range of fire, such as Indonesia’s C-802 ASM (an adapted version of the Chinese YF-2 anti-ship missiles), are able to provide more effective resistance. C-802 ASM can hit a target at a distance of 120 kilometers, making it the most long-range ground-based anti-ship missiles deployed in the region. PCR PJ-10 "BrahMos", which is a joint Russian-Indian development, can increase the distance of the destruction of potential enemy ships to 1500 kilometers.

However, the closure of the Strait of Malacca does not guarantee the maintenance of a stable maritime blockade of the PRC in this region. To ensure it, it is necessary to take similar measures in the Sunda and Lombok strait. Since their width is relatively small, experts do not see any problems in their protection of land-based PKR.

Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines

If Taiwan and the Philippines are involved in the alleged conflict, land-based PKRs deployed on their territory will also serve as a means of restricting the freedom of action of the PLA Navy. For example, a missile located on Taiwan and having a range of 100 kilometers, along with rockets that can hit targets at a distance of 200 kilometers, will provide control over the movement of ships south of Okinawa. Another option to protect this area is to base the RCC with an 200-kilometer radius of action on the island of Ruykyu. The space between Okinawa and Japan can be covered by anti-ship missiles with an 100-kilometer range located in Japanese territory. The Luson Strait, the area of ​​the island of Borneo and the Philippines may protect RCC, established on the island of Taiwan and the territory of Malaysia and / or the Philippines.

However, according to experts, in this case the water area located between Australia and Indonesia remains undisguised. This problem can be solved by using the BrahMos PJ-10 RPC in a land version located in Indonesia and / or Australia.

Korea and Japan

PLA Navy can also use the Korean Strait for the transit of ships between South Korea and Japan. It is easy to block it using ground-based CRP with a radius of 100 – 200 kilometers, located on the territory of these two states. According to experts, to achieve the optimal level of security of this strait, it is necessary to use land-based anti-ship missiles simultaneously, which are in service with these two states.

The best placement option RCC

Experts believe that it will be relatively easy to arrange ground-based RCCs on all the above territories on a temporary basis. On the contrary, the placement of this type of weapons on an ongoing basis will cause a negative reaction from China and will presumably have a negative impact on various types of US-Chinese negotiations. For the normal functioning of ground-based PKR as a means of deterrence, close cooperation with those states on whose territory they are located is necessary, which is also a factor for which the United States, according to experts, should not aggravate relations with the PRC. Thus, the best option for the use of anti-ship missiles is to prepare the places from which they are planned to be launched, and to place depots of this type of armament on the territory of Asian states or to prepare for an emergency redeployment of ground-based PKR from the United States.

A series of CRPs can be installed not only in terrestrial, but also in a number of other versions, which will allow increasing the degree of flexibility of their application. At the same time, the question arises of mobilizing and creating an effective structure for managing RCC batteries located in different conditions. According to experts, the optimal scheme is the mobilization and transfer of subdivisions of the Patriot air defense missile system, developed by the US Army. The minimum composition of one unit of this complex consists of two launchers with four launchers on each, eight supply vehicles, a radar station, a control center, additional equipment necessary for the normal functioning of the complex, the corresponding calculation. All of these components can be deployed on five C-5 aircraft or on seven C-17. When moving the complex also really use high-speed vessels.

Given the high level of development of the various-based PKR market (including ground-based), experts believe that the structure of the subunit of the anti-ship missile unit described above can be created for any type of these missiles without much effort.

Assessing the impact of the international situation on the strategy of using ground-based PKR in deterring the PLA Navy, analysts note that not all the APR states are fully allies and / or partners of the United States. The most striking example is Indonesia, which, despite the provision of US military assistance, strengthens relations with the PRC. Perhaps the need to convince such countries to deploy on their territory ground-based PKRs will become a major problem of American foreign policy in the region.

Cooperation in the framework of the creation of a common defensive ground-based PKR system can significantly improve the interaction of the United States and the APR states in the field of national security. At the same time, the question is relevant whether these countries will be able to effectively use land-based PKR to ensure the blockade of the PLA Navy. Experts believe that since the American army does not have enough experience and material and technical base to maximize their effective use, cooperation with Asian countries in this direction may be significantly hampered.

Today, the Air Force and the US Navy have the means that can carry out the containment of the aspirations of the PLA Navy without the use of ground forces. However, they are for the most part expensive and their placement may be hampered by the efforts of China. The ground-based anti-ship missiles, which are launched from relatively small-sized installations located in inaccessible terrain, can significantly improve the American containment system without the use of expensive equipment. The use of these missiles can facilitate the task of patrolling the US Air Force and Navy. Mass deployment of launchers on the territory of the US allies and / or partners will complicate the work of Chinese command and control systems and intelligence agencies. The use of ground-based CRPs within the framework of the Air C Battle strategy would significantly increase American capabilities in countering the Chinese strategy of blocking access to certain areas (A2 / AD). It will also facilitate cooperation with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in the framework of the deployment and potential use of these weapons, according to RAND Corporation.

Awesome report

The idea of ​​the potential use of ground-based PKR by the United States and its allies and partners in the APR as a significant deterrent is particularly relevant in light of the increasing potential capabilities of the PLA Navy.

For the first time in all history countries reach the level of initial combat readiness. A report with this information was published in the US Congress by a subcommittee dealing with China.

According to a draft report prepared by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the JL-2 Chinese solid-propellant ballistic missile for launching from submarines (SLBMs) ​​can reach the level of initial combat readiness at the end of 2013. The flight range of this SLBM is estimated to be 4000 nautical miles (7408 kilometers). In a complex with a nuclear submarine with ballistic missiles (SSBN) of the 094 project (Jin code - Jin) the JL-2 rocket will pose a threat directly to the US territory. Currently, the PLA Navy has three SSBNs of this type, it is planned to deploy two more boats to the 2020 year.

The report contains information according to which China is developing two new nuclear submarine projects (APL) - a nuclear submarine with missile-torpedo armament (PLAT) of the 095 project and SSBN of the 096 project. The 096 project SSBNs are expected to significantly increase the range, mobility, secrecy, and effectiveness of Chinese nuclear deterrence.

Constructions belonging to the American armed forces on the island of Guam, in the near future will be under threat from the Chinese land-based missiles, experts say.

Despite the fact that at present, China cannot use ground-based cruise missiles, the PLA Navy, experts say, are developing the possibility of attacking ground targets with the help of sea cruise missiles. A special role in this context will be played by the PLN project 095 and the destroyer with guided missile weapons (URO) of the 052D project (Luyan 3 cipher code - Luyang III). This will make it easier for the Chinese side to attack targets located in the western Pacific Ocean, including on the island of Guam.

As indicated in the above-mentioned report, PLA Air Force acquired 15 new H-6K bombers (an improved version of the H-6 machine). Aircraft H-6K can carry cruise missiles onboard to destroy ground targets and have an increased range compared to the previous version. Air-launched cruise missiles will allow the PLA Air Force to strike virtually all targets in the western Pacific Ocean.

The report contains information according to which China is currently developing an improved version of the DF-21 ballistic anti-ship missile system - DF-21D. Its estimated flight range will be 810 nautical miles (1500 kilometers). As a result, it will not be able to hit targets on the island of Guam, remote from China on 1600 nautical miles (3000 kilometers).

Among other innovations of the PLA Navy, analysts pay special attention to the construction of the first Chinese aircraft carrier "Liaoning", from whose deck the Flying Shark J-15 fighter took off and landed. In June 2013, during the exercise, the first group of deck aviation pilots and takeoff and landing control officers for aircraft carriers were certified, and in September, 2013 carried out checks on the take-off and landing of deck planes on the ship. It is assumed that crew training will continue until the first air regiment equipped with J-2015 fighters will go into service with the PLA Navy in 2016 – 15.

The report also contains information on other new PLA Navy ships. In 2012, China introduced two new classes of surface ships: the destroyer URO Luyan-3 and the frigate Jiangdao (project 056). Resumed construction of destroyers URO "Luyan-2." Serial production of frigates of the UZO "Jiangkai-2" continues (project 054A). Analysts believe that most of these ships will go into operation by 2015. According to them, by this time, China will become the second largest power in the world in the number of large ships launched, and by 2020, despite an increase in American production fleet, - the largest builder of military ships in the world and will annually produce the largest number of submarines and surface ships.

The position of the specialists, expressed in the report under review, is the following: over the next 5 – 10 years, China’s military preparations will significantly change the strategic balance in Asia. Along with strengthening US-China relations, the PRC is increasing its ability to strike the bases and ships of the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
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  1. makarov
    makarov 30 November 2013 07: 56 New
    14
    In fact, it goes something like this: - The US scared China with analysts' calculations "on paper." China has accepted the challenge, and embodies the necessary response in "hardware".
    1. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 30 November 2013 15: 28 New
      +4
      Quote: makarov
      In fact, it goes something like this: - The US scared China with analysts' calculations "on paper." China has accepted the challenge, and embodies the necessary response in "hardware".


      China simply put on the Americans and now they have suffered an additional burden. Sooner or later, rather late it will reach the Americans that it is inappropriately to show off with all sorts of predictions there, but getting in the face will already be inevitable ...

      In general, in vain they show their flabby dominance to the Chinese. There, the guys in the bulk of the humor do not understand and will answer very seriously.
      1. Interface
        Interface 1 December 2013 14: 53 New
        +1
        Do not underestimate the amers. They have the largest fleet in the world, so, note.
        When they bring 4 commercial carrier groups to the shores of Japan, the PLA Navy will have to be nervous, the Chinese do not have such modern air defense and missile defense systems as the United States, and there is no need to exaggerate the PRC's successes in building aircraft ---- as long as their naval component is technically , and numerically inferior to the US Navy, this is obvious.
        There is no need to talk about the quality of naval aviation at all, the Americans have vast experience in their use: Iraq 1, Iraq 2, Yugoslavia, Libya. And do not just say, "Well, this is China, not Libya !!!" ----- to use their aviation effectively, the Americans will be able to.
        This is me only about the US Navy. And there is also the Navy of Japan, South Korea. Well, the Chinese have so far been a clear loser, I think that for a long time, they will not be able to quickly compensate for the backlog, and the Allied fleet also does not stand still in development.
        But Russia needs to be strengthened too, otherwise it will bomb, and we have a fleet at the joke.
    2. yurii p
      yurii p 30 November 2013 22: 55 New
      0
      "The United States frightened China with the calculations of analysts" ... in my opinion, China does not care about these calculations, they operate according to the principle of Eastern wisdom "the dog barks the caravan goes" that says it all, everyone wants to have what he wants and EVERYTHING.
  2. makarov
    makarov 30 November 2013 07: 56 New
    +1
    In fact, it goes something like this: - The US scared China with analysts' calculations "on paper." China has accepted the challenge, and embodies the necessary response in "hardware".
  3. andrei332809
    andrei332809 30 November 2013 08: 30 New
    +2
    in the event of an armed conflict in the region.

    the conflict will be armed, if only the Yankees themselves will unleash it. then they will explain that others started it, but, I think, the explanation will be stupid again
    1. Guun
      Guun 30 November 2013 09: 03 New
      +1
      As always come up with the myth of the Chinese dictator or something like that - time plays against the United States. If China is not stopped in the near future, then in 5-10 years it will be number 1.
    2. Guun
      Guun 30 November 2013 09: 03 New
      0
      As always come up with the myth of the Chinese dictator or something like that - time plays against the United States. If China is not stopped in the near future, then in 5-10 years it will be number 1.
      1. 0255
        0255 30 November 2013 12: 12 New
        +2
        interesting, but they will not build missile defense bases in South Korea?
  4. Ddhal
    Ddhal 30 November 2013 08: 43 New
    +4
    The old script. The American military-industrial complex always needs an enemy. And here is such a joy, you don’t even have to lie.
    A new race according to the old scheme. Stripes invent new strategies and build a doctrine under them with the corresponding tumble into new types of weapons. Reds increase the number along with improving.
    However, we cannot look at it indifferently, and will be forced to accelerate tangentially to both countries.
  5. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 30 November 2013 09: 00 New
    +4
    Americans in their repertoire. But one thing was not taken into account ... the presence of Russia. China is our strategic partner and it will not work to "smoke" (two are fighting, the third is not in the way); and the Japanese will raise their tail about the "northern territories", they will have to answer and answer toughly. hi
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 30 November 2013 12: 10 New
      -1
      Quote: Valery Neonov
      China is our strategic partner

      I wonder, against whom is China developing ground forces, in particular, armored vehicles? It is not through the Pacific Ocean to move to America, and most likely not through the mountains to India. But in the steppes of Kazakhstan and Mongolia, and even in the Far East, they can find where to turn around. And China basically does not develop long-range aviation. Kerosene is not enough to fly to America, even with PTB. And even to Japan it will be far away for their clones SU-27. And if they need aviation not against the United States or Japan, then who else is there?
      Do not nod to Taiwan, the Chinese will either receive it peacefully or not at all. They don’t need Taiwan with the infrastructure destroyed by the war. And Taiwan will not solve either the problem of lack of resources or the problem of land shortage.
      Again, China has repeatedly stated its interest in the Arctic basin. But neither China can theoretically mean either Alaska to be squeezed from America, let alone Svalbard from the Norwegians or Greenland from the Danes. And where else can they get their Arctic coastal gear?
      Answer these questions - no, not for me, but for yourself, only honestly and without resorting to cliches like "everything that is wrong is the intrigues of American imperialism and world Zionism." Curious conclusions await you, I assure you.
      1. Rus2012
        Rus2012 30 November 2013 15: 54 New
        +5
        Quote: Nagan
        I wonder, against whom is China developing ground forces, in particular, armored vehicles? It is not through the Pacific Ocean to move to America, and most likely not through the mountains to India. But in the steppes of Kazakhstan and Mongolia, and even in the Far East, they can find where to turn around.


        ... To begin with, the Russian Federation and China jointly agreed to develop long-range aviation (including the BTA). They conduct joint military exercises to transfer their troops to long distances. Including using the Russian BTA.
        For example, if suddenly Chinese divisions show up on the border of the separation of forces in the Middle East, Africa, the American continent, then this should not be surprised ...
        The United States and others from the axis of the Anglo-Saxons will climb from skin to quarrel to separate the Chinese and Russians, at the same time they will be very pleased with the Chinese war with the Indians, with the Vietnamese.
        Like a sickle in the balls for them - the creation of the SCO, EAEU, APEC. The restoration of the Golden Horde, the Silk Road and other plans for cooperation, not division and mutual hatred ...
        All that unites us - annoys them ...
        We can live in peace and harmony. And we are self-sufficient on our continent. They don’t need it. Suppress, divide, quarrel, while at the same time dominate, this is their policy.
      2. clidon
        clidon 30 November 2013 16: 30 New
        +1
        And why on armored vehicles and the development of ground forces? In the south, we have a good neighbor, China, in the West, NATO, which are rapidly reducing their offensive weapons and the number of armies ... From the USA? Well, do not move across the Pacific Ocean. We’re buying fighters, and they’ll definitely not have enough gas to America.

        Do not nod to Taiwan, the Chinese will either receive it peacefully or not at all. They don’t need Taiwan with the infrastructure destroyed by the war.

        And who said that they would generally need the infrastructure there. It is possible that at that time it would be beneficial for China to not exist at all. Or trite restore.
        1. alone
          alone 30 November 2013 21: 44 New
          +1
          Quote: clidon
          Or trite restore.

          and they need it? behind Taiwan is America and the rest of China's opponents.
          Quote: clidon
          And who said that they would generally need the infrastructure there.


          Hong Kong also had a different infrastructure. But this did not stop them. China is a dangerous player in the region. We must be careful with it.
          1. clidon
            clidon 30 November 2013 22: 19 New
            0
            and they need it? behind Taiwan is America and the rest of China's opponents.

            If under your jurisdiction? It will not hurt for sure.

            Hong Kong also had a different infrastructure. But this did not stop them. China is a dangerous player in the region. We must be careful with it.

            They simply got Hong Kong peacefully and without dust. And what is more careful and I do not argue - an armed, ambitious neighbor is the reason for wariness.
            1. alone
              alone 1 December 2013 00: 49 New
              +1
              Quote: clidon
              If under your jurisdiction? It will not hurt for sure.


              right. and preferably in a peaceful way. The Chinese are not at all stupid to climb there in war.
              1. clidon
                clidon 1 December 2013 08: 44 New
                0
                Depending on the situation. If the United States weakens, China builds up power, then the situation, even escalatingly, could grow to war. To which the Celestial Empire is ready.
      3. alone
        alone 30 November 2013 21: 42 New
        +2
        Quote: Nagan
        I wonder, against whom is China developing ground forces, in particular, armored vehicles? It is not through the Pacific Ocean to move to America, and most likely not through the mountains to India. But in the steppes of Kazakhstan and Mongolia, and even in the Far East, they can find where to turn around. And China basically does not develop long-range aviation. Kerosene is not enough to fly to America, even with PTB. And even to Japan it will be far away for their clones SU-27. And if they need aviation not against the United States or Japan, then who else is there?


        You are right. The ground forces of China, which are arming at a frantic pace, are by no means for the South Caucasus, Taiwan and Japan. And the road to Kazakhstan also does not go along the plain. They will not turn around particularly with armored vehicles.

        Actually, China always reminds me of a person who says one thing, thinks about another and makes a third
        1. Revolver
          Revolver 1 December 2013 05: 20 New
          0
          Quote: lonely
          Actually, China always reminds me of a person who says one thing, thinks about another and makes a third

          At the same time, English is not the same as Russian, but what they speak in Chinese is generally Chinese.
  6. saag
    saag 30 November 2013 09: 15 New
    +8
    China in a limited military conflict must be beaten, not because I am such a supporter of America, but because China is trying on the tunic of a new world hegemon, now its claim to small disputed territory is just a test of strength
  7. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 30 November 2013 09: 46 New
    +5
    Quote: saag
    China is trying on a tunic of a new world hegemon
    Let me disagree. The PRC's claims (territorial) are long-standing and expected, but the fact that the Americans have so actively climbed into the Asia-Pacific region should "slightly" strain Russia.
    No wonder Kamran returned, oh no wonder! hi
  8. saag
    saag 30 November 2013 09: 55 New
    +2
    In China, they allowed to officially have two children, the living space for China will become even more relevant, it can be assumed that either the Chinese aircraft carrier or SSBNs may become the first target
    1. clidon
      clidon 30 November 2013 16: 32 New
      +1
      For China, it will become important to maintain a huge army of elderly pensioners who are already on their way. Especially given the growing changes in social policy.
  9. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 30 November 2013 10: 38 New
    +7
    Quote: Valery Neonov "The Americans are in their repertoire. But one thing was not taken into account ... the presence of Russia. China is our strategic partner."
    At present, China is creating a headache for the Americans, acting on one side of the barricades with Russia. But we must never forget historical examples when the Celestial Empire conducted aggressive military operations against us. My military Far Eastern youth took place at the time of Damansky. Do not forget about the double-edged sword.
    1. Valery Neonov
      Valery Neonov 30 November 2013 11: 05 New
      +3
      +. I support. So forget about it is not good! The strategic partner at this time, PARTNER, BUT NOT AN ALLIANCE, CHINA FOR RUSSIA WILL NOT BECOME IT (ALLY). soldier
      1. Rus2012
        Rus2012 30 November 2013 16: 05 New
        +3
        Quote: Valery Neonov
        A PARTNER, BUT NOT AN ALLIANCE, CHINA FOR RUSSIA WILL NOT BECOME IT (ALLY).

        ... when there is mutual trust, there can be no war!
        Our ancestors in our territories for centuries lived without war. We just don’t know this. Our ancient history was taken from us, made to forget, brought theories that were alien to us, ideas, worship ... Yes, and we ourselves were made to believe that we are worthless, small nations without history. Divided and conquered.
        Do not find?
  10. Chicot 1
    Chicot 1 30 November 2013 11: 10 New
    +6
    This is another question (of those that are being backfilled!): Who and from whom should be restrained - either China from the States, or States from China ... But this is more and more so, from the field of analytics and forecasts ...
    But the fact that the closest neighbors of "great" China are wary of the invasion of the Celestial Empire is a fact. And the list of countries is not that small ... Yes, and the military component of the PRC is being built up methodically and systematically. Vietnam has something to think about (for example). And I'm not talking about Taiwan ... This is where you need to guard and contain ...
    Yes, and it would be time for us to take a sober look at our eastern neighbor. We have little real benefit from him. But he can create plenty of problems ... And for a long time it is time to stop making the Celestial Empire white and fluffy only on the grounds that the Chinese have friction with the Americans ...
  11. mountain
    mountain 30 November 2013 11: 27 New
    +4
    I’m not quite sure, but it seems to me that Russia has an advantageous situation in the event of military operations by China with its neighbors and the natural help of the Americans. We will not take the side of China, but from an economic point of view we can get preferences by selling them oil products and food. So, as China will be blocked, but it can only get everything from Russia. In this case, the recovery of the economy and production is guaranteed.
    These are just thoughts in the ear.
    1. Rus2012
      Rus2012 30 November 2013 16: 08 New
      +3
      Quote: mountain
      So, as China will be blocked, but it can only get everything from Russia. In this case, the growth of the economy and production is guaranteed. These are just thoughts in the ears.

      ... don’t have to rejoice if trouble has visited neighbors, right?
      If we take the side of the Anglo-Saxons, then at best we will become "cannon fodder" in their interests. They will never actually protect us from anyone.
      1. mountain
        mountain 30 November 2013 16: 46 New
        +3
        We will not side with the Anglo-Saxons, nor with China. I do not feel joy from my assumptions. If neighbors and amas begin to act against China, and they begin, everything goes to this. Our best position is neutrality and naturally moral))) and material assistance to China.
  12. mountain
    mountain 30 November 2013 11: 27 New
    +1
    I’m not quite sure, but it seems to me that Russia has an advantageous situation in the event of military operations by China with its neighbors and the natural help of the Americans. We will not take the side of China, but from an economic point of view we can get preferences by selling them oil products and food. So, as China will be blocked, but it can only get everything from Russia. In this case, the recovery of the economy and production is guaranteed.
    These are just thoughts in the ear.
  13. saag
    saag 30 November 2013 12: 12 New
    +2
    Quote: mountain
    In this case, the recovery of the economy and production is guaranteed.

    Well, now the Russian Federation sells hydrocarbons to China and, apart from the military, there is no rise in production, especially in single-industry towns
  14. karavay1982
    karavay1982 30 November 2013 14: 52 New
    +1
    But when are the aliens coming to us!
    And they will knock everyone on the head!
    We need to figure out how many missiles are needed to bomb China, they also thought about Syria, and something about Iran fell silent.
    Maybe we will nevertheless move on to a model of the development of civilization without WAR!
  15. saag
    saag 30 November 2013 17: 00 New
    0
    Quote: karavay1982
    Maybe we will nevertheless move on to a model of the development of civilization without WAR!

    Ambassador Ivan Maysky at one time suggested speaking in the League of Nations to all countries to disarm, something no one followed this advice and war broke out, hence the conclusion - it is impossible to live in peace alone without war, when only around they do that they bring it closer
  16. asadov
    asadov 30 November 2013 17: 06 New
    +1
    Who will benefit from the conflict between China and the United States? Yes, no one. It will not be just a conflict, but a third world one with the inclusion of the whole world in it. And Russia, moreover, does not shine from it. The conflict will most likely begin with a test of forces on the US allies, and the naval blockade is already the final bell before the world war. And as for Russian oil, etc., etc., then it will be easier for China to simply take and not pay.
  17. asadov
    asadov 30 November 2013 17: 06 New
    0
    Who will benefit from the conflict between China and the United States? Yes, no one. It will not be just a conflict, but a third world one with the inclusion of the whole world in it. And Russia, moreover, does not shine from it. The conflict will most likely begin with a test of forces on the US allies, and the naval blockade is already the final bell before the world war. And as for Russian oil, etc., etc., then it will be easier for China to simply take and not pay.
  18. saag
    saag 30 November 2013 17: 20 New
    0
    Quote: asadov
    It will not be just a conflict, but a third world

    It is doubtful whether to rattle with weapons and show-offs as much as you like, but it won’t reach the third, most likely it’s possible that the Chinese nuclear submarine will not get in touch, and this can happen in an area with great depths, but some benefits can to fuck Russia, firstly it’s not being drawn into the confrontation, and secondly, someone will decrease agility, this is also a plus
  19. voliador
    voliador 30 November 2013 18: 05 New
    +2
    asadov
    And as for Russian oil, etc., etc., then it will be easier for China to simply take and not pay.


    I do not think it is easier. Fighting with the Pindocs and even with us, the kitays will not have enough strength.
  20. voliador
    voliador 30 November 2013 18: 05 New
    0
    asadov
    And as for Russian oil, etc., etc., then it will be easier for China to simply take and not pay.


    I do not think it is easier. Fighting with the Pindocs and even with us, the kitays will not have enough strength.
  21. individual
    individual 30 November 2013 20: 14 New
    +3
    The author does not take into account the "mosquito" fleet of China.
    This small fry will cause so many problems to the US Navy as the midge of a tiger running away from its hordes into its lair.
    China already has the largest fleet of frigates in the world. They currently have 50 units while constantly improving the quality of their weapons.
    The mosquito fleet is traditionally very developed in China. Today it includes 119 missile boats, 83 high-speed catamarans and up to 250 patrol boats. A certain sensation of the last year was the mass construction of ships of 056 project in China. A year ago, nothing was known about them at all. The first ship of this type was laid in May 2012 of the year. Today 6 of these ships are in service, at least 10 are under construction, or are being tested. The total number of ships in the series is planned to be brought up to 50 units.
    Such a pace of construction has no analogues in post-war history in any country in the world.
  22. sawmill
    sawmill 1 December 2013 08: 26 New
    0
    The Chinese economy is focused on exporting products to those countries with which the above-written analitics predict the Sino-American war. All American manufacturers produce their goods in China, or receive their components from China from packaging to microchips.
    On the other hand, the largest number of dollars outside the United States, guess who? In your opinion, where does the largest number of people working for the US economy live? Economically, China depends on the United States no less than the United States depends on China.
    There is no reason to think that this situation of "deep interpenetration" between the United States and China will change in the coming decades. Of course, even the closest economic relations will not save them from disputes, but wars, blockades, nuclear strikes ???
    Let's look at our relationship with China
    How much do we buy in China, and how critical is this volume for them?
    What do we sell them and do they have alternatives?

    So who is China's strategic partner for Russia? Or the USA?
  23. voin777
    voin777 1 December 2013 10: 40 New
    0
    China will have to work hard to fight against several countries at once. The sooner the war is, the more profitable it will be for the United States, and if prolonged, then China will become the only world superpower.
  24. -Patriot-
    -Patriot- 2 December 2013 04: 35 New
    +1
    As long as China is friends with Russia, it can afford to prepare for a big war, and it will begin (if, of course, it starts), it is felt in the Asia-Pacific region.