Military Review

Why is a “dead grip” weak? Is China's naval blockade possible?

39

Recently elected new President Xi Jinping visited the South Naval Base on April 9 this year. fleet Sanya, on the island of Hainan, famous for its resorts. The Chinese leader examined the latest PLA Navy ships: type 052C destroyers, type 054A frigates, type 022 missile boats and type 071 landing helicopter docking ship. He also visited the Great March 9 nuclear missile submarine type 094 Jin. In her central post, Xi Jinping allowed television reporters to capture themselves at the periscope’s eyepiece.


This visit added fuel to the fire of discussion in the countries of the West, the Far East and Southeast Asia about the rapidly expanding Chinese expansion into the sea. But if in government and high-ranking military circles they talk about this, as a rule, with sufficient restraint, then there are no limitations in the scientific community and among analysts. How to curb the Chinese military power, including the sea? - This is the main subject of discussion.

Opinions on this subject are quite radical. Thus, the authoritative Anglo-American journal The Journal of Strategic Studies published an article by Shona Mirsky under the very unequivocal headline "Dead Hand": context, possible actions and the need for China's American naval blockade, which caused a noticeable public outcry.

The author considers the naval blockade of the People's Republic of China to be the best way to put pressure on Beijing in order to destroy its economic potential, which will force the Celestial to recognize defeat in the war. And this is now, when the whole world is tensely following the fluctuations in the rate of industrial growth in this country, hoping that it will again become the locomotive of getting out of the global crisis. However, economic calculations do not always coincide with geostrategic - in any case, in time.

Why is a “dead grip” weak? Is China's naval blockade possible?

Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping at the eyepiece of the periscope of the SSBN “The Great March 9”.


If the Chinese economy actually begins to slip or worse, it will decline, indeed, in order to solve its economic, social and domestic political problems, Beijing can take up weapon. And it is a lot of it, and every year it becomes more. This is the case with Sean Mirski. He believes that the blockade is possible when “large-scale” hostilities begin between the USA, their allies and the PRC. However, they will not be in the nature of unlimited, that is, nuclear war. But it will not be a local conflict.

Doesn’t it resemble something? Yes, of course, the strategy of flexible response, inspired by US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara in the 60 of the last century. His doctrine was initiated by the Caribbean crisis of 1962, which in the United States is referred to as Cuban. Then the world was put on the brink of a nuclear catastrophe, almost turning into the death of both sides. Such a disposition did not suit the military-political leadership of the United States. The flexible response was supposed to guard American interests with reliance on the military pressure of the USSR, the Warsaw Pact countries and their allies outside Europe, but, if possible, not to bring the matter to a nuclear apocalypse. To a certain extent, this doctrine managed to somewhat reduce the intensity of the confrontation between Washington and Moscow. However, the practice of rejecting communism was unsuccessful. In Vietnam, the US and the strategy of flexible response suffered a crushing defeat. As for the use of nuclear weapons, there is no doubt that the party, who was in a desperate situation, would nevertheless resort to it according to the principle “there is no reception against scrap”. Or is it a point of view, unique to the Russian mentality? I'm afraid not.


This is how the Japanese artist sees the battle between the ships of the Naval Self-Defense Forces and the PLA Navy.


Shaun Mirsky, who graduated from the University of Chicago in 2011 and received a bachelor's degree in economics and political science, as well as a master's degree in international relations, now continues his studies at Harvard University and is probably familiar with the Robert McNamara doctrine. He modernized it somewhat and “freezed” it, targeting China.

What is the theory of the sea blockade of the People's Republic of China, Sean Mirski, based on, and what concrete steps, in his opinion, should be taken to implement it? A young American scientist rightly draws attention to the dependence of the Chinese economy on maritime transport. 90% of the country's foreign trade is carried by water transport. The PRC is forced to import about 60% of oil consumed, much of which is transported by tankers. In the ten largest ports in China, more than 80% of containerized cargo is concentrated. That is why a long and even if not 100-percent blockade, according to Shaun Mirsky, will have fatal consequences for the economy of the Middle Kingdom.

In principle, the establishment of such a naval blockade is possible. Mirsky sees her consisting of two rings. External - a distant blockade - will be located behind a chain of island states surrounding China from the east and stretching from Hokkaido in the north to Singapore in the south. These states are either allied to Washington, or gravitating toward America. Therefore, in the conflict, China and the United States will take the side of the latter. In the outer ring, all cargo ships going to and from Chinese ports will be intercepted, screened and detained. This mission will be carried out by surface ships of the US Navy and their allies, who will deploy their formations in areas inaccessible to the Chinese aviation and coastal missile systems.


SSBN type 094 Jin rarely and briefly leave the Sanya naval base.


The inner, “lethal,” as Mirsky calls it, the blockade ring refers to the waters immediately adjacent to the Chinese shores. There will act a law "swamp them all!". This function is assigned to US and Japanese submarines, the number of which in the area can now be brought to 71 units, as well as coast-based aircraft and active mine operations. True, with regard to the latter type of weapon, Shaun Mirsky notes the actual "atrophy" of the capabilities of the US Navy to carry out offensive mine settings and, in particular, the absence of sea mines suitable for use by submarines as of the beginning of the 2013 fiscal year.

It must be noted that the appearance of alien submarines off the coast of the PRC is already worrying Beijing. Rear Admiral of the PLA Navy Yin Chuo said in an interview with China Central Television that there is a need to strengthen the anti-submarine defense forces in the South China Sea due to the growing activity of foreign submarines.

SSGN project 675 (Echo II). Underwater displacement - 5760 t, length - 115,4 m, maximum speed of the underwater stroke - 29 knots, maximum depth of immersion - 300 m, autonomy - 50 days.

Crew - 137 man. In addition to 8 launchers of cruise missiles that were deployed on the 4 in the light hull of each side, the boat had 4 nasal 533-mm torpedo tubes (ammunition - 16 torpedoes) and 2 stern 406-mm TA (ammunition - 4 torpedoes). Total for the Soviet Navy was built 29 such boats.


The anti-Chinese coalition can be quite broad. In recent years, Washington is increasingly “building bridges” with Vietnam. Former adversary today is seen as the closest ally. The Vietnamese Navy has a Molniya missile boat, K-300P Bastion mobile coastal missile systems, whose Yakhont missiles are capable of hitting the Sanya Chinese Navy base on Hainan Island, which was recently visited by Chairman Xi Jinping. In the near future, the Vietnamese fleet will be replenished with six 06361 submarines armed with Club-S cruise missiles designed to attack sea and coastal targets at a range of 300 km.

All this is true. But on the other hand, the Chinese fleet today is the undisputed world leader in increasing combat power. Mass batches of missile boats, frigates, corvettes, non-nuclear submarines and landing ships are being built and put into operation. Chinese specialists apparently succeeded in bringing 052-type destroyers with combat control systems similar to the American Aegis to mind, and in the near future, it seems, the serial assembly of improved 052D destroyers will be deployed in shipyards.

Appeared in the PLA Navy and aircraft carrier - Liaoning, converted from the unfinished Soviet "Varyag". This event in China and beyond is given increased attention, which, they say, testifies to a qualitative leap in the development of the Chinese fleet and to the expansion of its capabilities to gain dominance in the oceans. This agitation clearly does not correspond to the real situation. First, Liaoning will be part of the combat-ready forces no earlier than 2017, that is, relatively soon. Secondly, his air group will include the entire X-NUMX fighter-bomber J-22 - a counterfeit version of the Russian Su-15, which is incomparably small in the number of similar machines available in the fleets of American aircraft carriers. Third, and larger aircraft carriers that are planned to be built for the PLA Navy, it will be difficult, if not possible, to escape to the ocean operational space due to the fact that China, as already noted, is surrounded by a chain of "unsinkable aircraft carriers" - island nations Allied or friendly to the United States, some of which have American air bases.

It seems that the noise in the United States and countries close to them about the Chinese aircraft carriers rises on purpose in order to whet Beijing. So that he continues to invest huge financial and material resources in the construction of ships that are easy to find and destroy.

But the nuclear submarine fleet, which can pose a real threat to the United States, is still the weak link of the PLA Navy. The first generation of Chinese SSBNs and submarines almost never went to sea. And the second - for now, too. Three newest SSBNs like the 094 Jin rarely and briefly leave the Sanya naval base. These submarines have a rather high noise level, the operation of the reactors causes criticism, there is no covert communication system with the coastal command, which prevents the withdrawal of boats to distant patrols. But the most important thing is that an intercontinental ballistic missile Julang-2 (JL-2) with a firing range of up to 7400 km has not yet been fully worked out. In other words, China is still far from creating a truly effective underwater strategic system.

The reasons for the lag are many. And, probably, the tragic incident that happened in the South China Sea 22 January 1983 played a significant role here. On that day, the nuclear submarine K-10 of the 675 project (Echo II - according to NATO classification) under the command of the captain of the 1 rank Valery Medvedev, who was in military service in this water area, came to the point of communication with the coastal command. But the boat arrived a little ahead of time. Above the storm raged. Under the keel - 4500 m. But at the depth of 54 m, where the boat followed, it was not strongly felt. The commander made a decision to conduct hydroacoustic reconnaissance of the area in order to reveal the possible observation of K-10 by the probable enemy. He ordered the circulation to the left, in order to listen to the water space from the aft course corners, where there were dead zones for the hydroacoustic station of the nuclear-powered icebreaker.

The bow of the K-10 after a collision with a Chinese boat.

Here I must say a few words about the submarine of the 675 project. They were called "assassins of aircraft carriers" because they were intended to attack large American surface ships, as well as naval bases. The boats armed X-NUMX with P-8 cruise missiles, including those with nuclear warheads, or P-6Ds - for firing at coastal targets. However, these submarines had significant drawbacks. They could launch missiles only from a surface position, which reduced their secrecy and, consequently, their combat stability. The second drawback is high noise. It was the result of not only the work of the mechanisms, but also the presence in the light housing of the cut-outs of the gas chambers of rocket launchers. As soon as the submarine developed the course, these notches, in which the water was swirling, began to “sing”. That is why American submariners called our submarines "roaring cows."

These flaws in 1970 once nearly led to the death of the K-108 submarine under the command of the captain of the 1 rank Suren Bagdasaryan. His boat, completing the course tasks in Avachinsky Bay, waited for a signal to return to base. The crew, except for the watch, rested. And when the submarine made another turn to the left to listen to the acoustics of the “dead zones”, K-108 received a powerful blow to the lower stern of the starboard. The Soviet submarine Tautog, which followed our submarine, literally drove into the Soviet boat. K-108 began to fall to the depth, and under the keel was more than 2000 m. But the energetic actions of the commander and crew allowed the nuclear-powered vessel to be leveled and the emergency ascent tanks passed through. However, as Baghdasaryan believed, the main role was played by chance. Tautog hit our boat with the fence of its sliding devices in the line of the right shaft, which played the role of a shock absorber and did not allow the K-108 robust hull to punch.

Valery Medvedev, as well as other commanders of the nuclear project 675, was well aware of the dramatic incident with K-108, so he tried to be careful. Acoustics reported that the horizon is clear. And here everyone on board felt a jolt. The blow was not strong, but sensitive. K-10 grappled with some object and moved along with it for some time. Whale? Giant octopus? No, something else, but what? Reports came out of the compartments, that they were examined and there were no comments. The 21.31 boat has surfaced. A typhoon raged above. Solid darkness. On the surface of the seamen K-10 did not see anything. Reported to the incident command. It ordered to follow to the base of Cam Ranh in Vietnam. When inspecting the boat in the bow of her found a strong damage and pieces of foreign metal.

Since no country claimed damage to or destruction of its submarine, the command of the Soviet Navy did not make any report. Two years later, in the Chinese media, there were obituaries on the occasion of the death of a submarine in the South China Sea in 1983, on board of which were leading scientists and designers involved in the development of ballistic missiles for the PLAH Navy SSBNs. Apparently, they were victims of a collision with K-10. Why did the Soviet and Chinese acoustics not hear each other? Probably, a storm raging on the surface interfered with the work of the HAS.

Restoring the school of the dead Chinese scientists and designers involved in the creation of SLBMs, required considerable time. And this circumstance still affects the readiness of the underwater strategic system of the PRC.


DPLRB project 629 (Golf). Underwater displacement - 3553 t, length - 98,8 m, maximum submerged speed - 12,5 node, autonomy - 70 days. Crew - 87 man. Armament: 3 launchers in the fence of retractable devices for BR P-13 or P-21, 4 fore and 2 aft 533-mm torpedo tubes. For the USSR Navy built 21 unit. Two more - for the PLA Navy with launchers for locating the BR P-11 with a range of 150 km.


A diesel-electric rocket boat, which faced the K-10, was of Soviet construction. More precisely, it was assembled under the 629 project in the PRC from components received from the USSR. In China, she received the designation type 6631 and tail number 208. Later in Dalian, they assembled another one-type boat under the number 200. They became the swan song of the “indestructible Sino-Soviet friendship”, which at the beginning of the 60-s of the last century ordered to live long. The PLA Navy used submarines of the 6631 type, which later received the 031 type designation, as stands for ballistic missile test firing. One of them with the 200 tail number is still used to test the JL-2 SLBMs.

Of course, the Chinese leadership is aware of the need to bring the PLA naval submarine strategic forces to the level of the best world standards. And so the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping, during his visit to the Sanya base, visited precisely the SSBN “The Great March 9”, and only examined other ships. According to the American Internet resource Strategy Page, active work is underway to create a third-generation Chinese SSBN such as 096. It will introduce new powerful nuclear reactors, noise-absorbing coatings, modern gas systems, advanced boat control systems and other high-tech components and assemblies. That is, an 096-type boat will become a highly sophisticated nuclear strategic submarine. Some sources claim that its construction has already begun. And it will get into service 24 SLBM JL-3 with a firing range over 10000 km. To track such boats, the US Navy will be forced to send additional ships, submarines and anti-submarine aircraft. There will be no time for the Chinese naval blockade.


DPLRB No. 200 type 031 is still used in the PLA Navy for testing JL-2 ICBMs. On the boat there is one installation for its launch.


And one more important circumstance to which Shawn Mirsky drew attention in his article. According to him, the key political factor, on which the success of the naval blockade depends, is the ability of the United States to achieve Russia's accession to it. Indeed, without this condition, it is ridiculous to talk about isolating China. The Russian Federation is one of the largest suppliers of energy resources to the PRC, and they are transported not by sea, but by pipelines and railways.

And Russia will not be able to take part in the naval blockade of China. For this, she simply does not have ships. It is not by chance that James Holmes, Professor of Strategy at the US Naval College, co-authored the book Red Star Above the Pacific Ocean, devoted to the influence of Alfred Mahan's ideas on naval construction in the PRC (for more, see National Defense Magazine No. XXUMX / 11 ), and the military commentator of the English-language Japanese publication The Diplomat, compiling a list of the five most powerful naval forces in the zone of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, did not include the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation. According to his version, the “magnificent five” is represented by the naval forces of the United States, Japan, China, India and South Korea. And how could it be otherwise, when for the entire post-Soviet era, that is, for 2011 of the year, the Pacific Fleet did not receive a single surface combat ship! And the submarine forces were replenished with three submarines of the 22A project and two 949 projects. All of them were laid in Soviet times and were only completed at the beginning of the 971s of the last century. Today, these boats need modernization. The three SSBNs of the 90BDR project have long expired. And although “George the Victorious” last year “shook the olden time” and successfully shot out the ICBM P-667P, these SSBNs need urgent replacement. (For comparison: during the same period, the naval forces of Japan, China and South Korea were updated by more than 29%).

The Russian fleet has other concerns. The deployment by the United States of a global missile defense system based on its naval component requires Russia to take steps to neutralize the threat to its strategic forces, including the NSNF, as well as measures to create counter-threats to the US territory, primarily from the oceanic directions.

Moscow, of course, is also worried about pumping up the military muscles of the PRC, including the deployment of the best-trained and well-armed Chinese units and formations, including armored ones, near the border of the two countries. Where there is nothing for our country to defend itself with.


Large anti-submarine ship "Admiral Levchenko" during joint maneuvers with the US Navy Hue City missile cruiser.


But China has its Achilles heel. Its one and a half billion population lives in half of the country's territory (mainly in the coastal zone and river valleys), because the second half is practically not habitable. And this creates ideal conditions for nuclear strikes at several of the most vulnerable points. In the event of the outbreak of war, the PRC will suffer terrible losses incomparable to anything else. And in Beijing, even Maoist, they always understood it, they understand it now.

Undoubtedly, the problem of the growing military power of China remains. And concerted steps to curb it must be sought, but on a mutually acceptable basis. In the meantime, it turns out that Washington and Moscow are trying to play the Chinese card with profit for themselves, and Beijing, skillfully using the contradictions between the United States and Russia and observing their interest, clearly gains the upper hand in this game. However, there may be progress. According to foreign media reports, China is clearly annoyed by the results of the recent visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Russia. And not so much because the talks focused on the possibility of concluding a peace treaty between the two countries, as well as on an ambitious Russian-Japanese program for the development of joint energy projects. The main cause of concern is seen in the attempt to create Tokyo, and therefore Washington, the “geopolitical ring” around the PRC, since only Russia can change the unstable strategic balance of power in Asia.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.nationaldefense.ru/
39 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Civil
    Civil 24 July 2013 19: 02
    17
    Without Russia, any attempt to block China is a profanation.
    1. Rus2012
      Rus2012 24 July 2013 19: 27
      18
      Quote: Civil
      Without Russia, any attempt to block China is a profanation.

      I will say more - the Navy of China is learning to go to sea and fight according to Soviet textbooks and charters. Even their form is almost Soviet. And in these conditions - how can we talk about the inclusion of Russia in an alliance against China. Only in a delirious dream ...
      But, atlantists are strong with savagery and meanness, their pink dreams are to upset relations between countries and peoples on this continent. Therefore, you need to be vigilant and careful ...
      1. S_mirnov
        S_mirnov 24 July 2013 21: 07
        +6
        “I will say more - the Chinese Navy is learning to go to sea and fight according to Soviet textbooks and regulations.” - I will say even more, they go to sea on former Soviet ships, bought cheaply in post-perestroika times.
        http://demotivation.me/d5ccdk548gc8pic.html#.UfAWYqyaTld
      2. Shoma-1970
        Shoma-1970 25 July 2013 14: 07
        0
        I hope they understand this policy in Russia and in China!
    2. Geisenberg
      Geisenberg 25 July 2013 01: 55
      0
      Quote: Civil
      Without Russia, any attempt to block China is a profanation.


      Simply. Any attempt to put pressure on China will end badly for the crush. Though with us even without. But according to the latest data, it’s definitely without us bully
      1. Sirocco
        Sirocco 25 July 2013 05: 55
        +3
        The article is interesting, but in general it is a utopia, because it is no secret to anyone that China is the largest producer of goods, primarily for the USA and the EU. I think that the Golden Taurus end partners in the EU will not want to lose such profits. Now about the main thing.
        If the Chinese economy actually starts to stall or worse, it will decline, indeed, it may happen that in order to solve its economic, social and domestic political problems, Beijing may take up arms.
        From this, I conclude that the EU economy and partners, to put it mildly, are skidding (no matter what kind of noodles they hang on this subject). Otherwise, where does such militancy come from in the Balkans, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. Now we move on,
        the scientist rightly draws attention to the dependence of the Chinese economy on shipping. 90% of the country's foreign trade is carried out by water. China is forced to import about 60% of the consumed oil, a significant part of which is transported by tankers.
        All these maritime transportations mostly transport goods for consumers EU end partners, and until the EU rebuilds "factories, plants and ships," they are on the hook in China, but with oil, in the worst case scenario, Russia will help. Let's go further.
        It seems that the noise in the United States and countries close to them about the Chinese aircraft carriers rises on purpose in order to whet Beijing. So that he continues to invest huge financial and material resources in the construction of ships that are easy to find and destroy.
        Someone I don’t understand all the noise with the AUG, about a month and a half ago everything about the AUG in Russia was noisy, they say it’s bad that we don’t have any. Many with foam at the mouth proved that this AUG (especially from the USA) is very difficult to detect, and difficult to destroy. And here in the article, here you’ll take it out, it is possible to retract the SDI type into the project. Maybe someone literate will answer, why the fuck goat button accordion, in the form of AUG? Let's go further.
        And Russia will not be able to take part in the naval blockade of China.
        Not that it cannot, but will not be, in principle, since China is our BRICS partner, and other merits. And the most important thing is that the article is a plus, so that everyone remembers.
        In the meantime, it turns out that Washington and Moscow are trying to profitably play the Chinese card, while Beijing, skillfully using the contradictions between the US and Russia and observing its interest, is clearly gaining the upper hand in this game.
        I would like to draw your attention to the fact that again there is an attempt to create a hotbed of instability around Russia, so to speak, they are trying to take us into a ring, not China. As a pie, they veiled Russia and not the PRC, and the PRC, by the way, teaches the history of the PRC, whose lands are depicted on the map up to the Urals. So, as in politics, who will outplay whom, we keep our ears open, and in relation to all "partners".
    3. dmitrich
      dmitrich 25 July 2013 05: 17
      +1
      and why should Vietnam be on their side?
    4. Nitarius
      Nitarius 25 July 2013 08: 37
      +1
      It is necessary to raise your fleet with the knee! TIME WORKS NOT FOR US! We started a lot of work.
      And sooner or later there will be those who want to DIVIDE RUSSIA into parts!
    5. NKVD
      NKVD 25 July 2013 13: 25
      +1
      Shit amer on the shovel, not an alliance with Russia against China.
      1. INVESTOR
        INVESTOR 25 July 2013 14: 01
        0
        On the shovel)
  2. svp67
    svp67 24 July 2013 19: 04
    +4
    China is still weak at sea, but it is rapidly pumping up its "muscles", and if the growth rate of its economy does not fall, then it is not yet known who will be the "sea lord" in 10 years ...
    1. Arberes
      Arberes 24 July 2013 19: 29
      +6
      Quote: svp67
      China is still weak at sea, but quickly pumps up "muscles"

      Even how it pumps up! Own-designed aircraft carriers have been laid and are being built. According to numerous sources in the amount of two units, bye!
      This is not counting our "Varyag"! Well, corvettes and frigates are launched almost every two months and destroyers are also being built there! As the saying goes "Complete set". hi
  3. MAG
    MAG 24 July 2013 19: 10
    +3
    Or maybe our submariners specifically rammed the Chinese? All eggs (constructor) in one basket
  4. Smersh
    Smersh 24 July 2013 19: 21
    +2
    again, most are copies of our
  5. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 24 July 2013 19: 21
    +3
    China, in my opinion, is too keen on copying .. That's when their defense industry will be based on its own development and technology, then we can talk about a world power dictating its own terms .. China is very dependent on the global economy .. Growth comes from cheap labor and the attraction of Western investment and technology .. George the Victorious, he kills us with the spear of the Dragon .. So we are afraid of nothing))))
    1. pav-pon1972
      pav-pon1972 24 July 2013 20: 43
      +4
      China is changing, and it already has many young scientists from Western and Eastern European schools in various fields of activity. practice a bit and go ahead ...
  6. Conepatus
    Conepatus 24 July 2013 19: 44
    +6
    Even if the blockade succeeds, so what? All that China needs, it will receive, or send through Russia.
    The same thing, if an embargo was imposed against Russia, she (Russia) would get everything she needed through China.
    1. Odysseus
      Odysseus 25 July 2013 00: 28
      +1
      Quote: Conepatus
      The same thing, if an embargo was imposed against Russia, she (Russia) would get everything she needed through China.

      This, by the way, is very true. In some circles it is often frightening that if Russia wants to become an independent country again (it will review the results of privatization, stop pumping money to the West, etc.), then the West will arrange a blockade for us and there will be a complete disaster.
      This is complete nonsense, if only because we have almost everything we need through China. This is not to mention other possible trading partners.
      1. Conepatus
        Conepatus 25 July 2013 01: 09
        +2
        Here, here. And as an answer, you can block the gas. If you block in October-November, closer to the New Year the whole enlightened Western world will howl like that bad dog. And the embargo will simply cease to be by itself. Now the West is more dependent on the Russian supplies than under the Union, so it is still unknown who will be worse.
        1. wasjasibirjac
          wasjasibirjac 25 July 2013 04: 48
          +1
          Quote: Conepatus
          And as an answer, you can block the gas. If you block in October-November, then closer to the New Year the whole enlightened Western world will howl like that bad dog.

          not true. if the gas is shut off in October, then by the New Year one half of Europe will be in complete silence, and in the second - the ax of a lumberjack will be heard.
    2. Gato
      Gato 25 July 2013 14: 58
      0
      Quote: Conepatus
      embargo imposed against Russia

      Really, just ridiculous. What strategic resources or goods embargo? And what resources does Russia receive through China (which are not produced in China itself)?

      Even if the blockade succeeds, so what? All that China needs, it will receive, or send through Russia.

      Moreover, China’s naval blockade will be a huge gift for Russia. Of course, Russia will not be able to take over the entire commodity turnover, but the income from what will turn out to be more than significant. Both economic and political
  7. waisson
    waisson 24 July 2013 19: 44
    +4
    it will not be blocked by caps thrown and break through
    1. Conepatus
      Conepatus 24 July 2013 20: 11
      +3
      Just a blockade of China, for the United States, will come out economically sideways.
  8. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 24 July 2013 20: 18
    +7
    China holds 1 trillion bucks in US securities .. And they are very proud of it (naive) Like if we buy everyone for the debts .. The collapse of the ruble and the yuan can be arranged by the "black cardinals" at any time. It's just that they are not profitable for Russia and China donors Western economy (it is not a shame to admit it ..) Now we are trying to break away from this "cancerous tumor" too much metastasis has spread all over the world .. It is clearly impossible to do without an operation (I’m so figuratively ..)
  9. krez-74
    krez-74 24 July 2013 20: 28
    +7
    Sean Mirsky, Zbigniew Brzezinski ... How many clever people are around? smile Siege of China? Wouldn’t overtake!
  10. Nayhas
    Nayhas 24 July 2013 20: 37
    +5
    "and in the near future, it looks like, the serial assembly of the improved type 052D destroyers will be deployed at the shipyards." - come to your senses, the author, 21.07.2013/052/8. the news of the launching of the third XNUMXD in Shanghai has passed. China is rapidly building a fleet, corvettes, frigates, destroyers, preparing for the construction of aircraft carriers, but ASW is in an extremely rudimentary state. And this is a huge problem. China has nowhere to take modern anti-aircraft weapons for copying, if their rival India can buy from the United States P-XNUMXI Poseidon, the most modern anti-aircraft weapons, then they can only quietly envy. The available anti-submarine equipment of Soviet and Russian production, which does not meet modern requirements for detecting, again, modern submarines that the United States, South Caucasus, Japan and Vietnam possess. Therefore, a naval blockade of China is quite possible. Even on condition that Russia does not support her. Our oil supplies to China are incomparably less than those that China receives by sea. They will have enough of their own reserves and our oil for some time, but they will not be able to fully cover all the needs for fuel. Unfortunately, the sea blockade will push China to establish control over the oil pipeline and fields in Siberia and the Far East ...
    1. cherkas.oe
      cherkas.oe 24 July 2013 21: 33
      +4
      Quote: Nayhas
      . Unfortunately, the sea blockade will push China to establish control over the oil pipeline and fields in Siberia and the Far East ...

      Again rave Zelik. How? They are what suicides. Or is it all your dreams?
    2. Gato
      Gato 25 July 2013 15: 09
      0
      Quote: Nayhas
      Unfortunately, the sea blockade will push China to establish control over the oil pipeline and fields in Siberia and the Far East ...

      Well, yes, having an adversary of the USA, NATO and Japan, they will quarrel with Russia for the kit, depriving themselves of not only resources, but also access to sales markets! The Chinese mentality, of course, is bizarre - but not to the same extent!
  11. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 24 July 2013 20: 39
    +8
    Perhaps you should not forget that times have now changed and the presence of special anti-ship missiles with which you can equip both coastal batteries and put on airplanes fundamentally changes the whole principle of warfare at sea, the battle can take place between opponents who are at considerable distances from each other, which prevents the Chinese from setting up piles of such batteries equipped with anti-ship missiles on the coast? India will definitely not fight with China, why do they need it? South Korea think this business will be destroyed with the greatest pleasure of the North Koreans with the support of the Chinese troops, as it was already, Vietnam, I happened to visit Vietnam and talk with some veterans of the Vietnam-China War, of course, the Chinese then showed themselves not in the best light, but then they faced an experienced Vietnamese army, and forgive the dog that ate in the guerrilla war, and behind the Chinese they had the Soviet army and in full combat readiness, and the Soviet army is more than cool, But now the time is different, the Soviet army, alas, is no longer there, the Vietnamese army has no more experience, and the Chinese army is not the same, and tell Vietnam to protect the interests of the United States? So the United States and Japan remain the enemies of China. But does the Japanese have the Imperial Navy sample 1941 and Admiral Yamamoto or Nagumo? As for me, our beloved Americans will be left so very quickly, of course it would be interesting to put a high chair and popcorn on all these events to watch from the unusual side of the third rejoicing for us, but I'm afraid we don’t have such a chance they will, although of course you can roll out to Siberia the entire nuclear arsenal and threaten to play fallout if we see at least something like a Chinese or an American on our borders.
  12. knn54
    knn54 24 July 2013 20: 42
    +6
    Worse than defeat in a war with America, there can only be an alliance with America.
    By the way, the Israelis are investing in "islands" in Asia, which are suitable both as jump points for aviation and as naval bases for "pirates", in essence.
  13. cobalt
    cobalt 24 July 2013 20: 59
    +5
    In recent years, China has seen a concentration of the shipbuilding industry in individual enclaves. Despite the fact that more than 3 thousand enterprises of the industry work in the country, 14% of them are large and medium. Last year, three Chinese shipbuilding enterprises entered the list of ten largest shipbuilders in the world. The first two places are occupied by the China Association of the Shipbuilding Industry (KOSP) and the China Corporation of the Shipbuilding Industry (KKSP). The tonnage of vessels built at these gigantic enterprises in 2006 amounted to 6,02 million and 2,67 million tons. respectively. China has already overtaken Japan in terms of ship construction, ahead of only South Korea. So in the coming years, China will become a leader in this industry and build a fleet in the right quantity and composition.
    To be honest, I look with envy at the pace and which ships China is building for its Navy, it’s a shame for Russia.
  14. za VDV
    za VDV 24 July 2013 21: 04
    +3
    China relocates troops to Mali
    A ceremony was held in Harbin on July 12 to send Chinese troops to Mali, mil.news.sina.com.cn reports today. For the first time, China is sending its troops to the international forces participating in peacekeeping operations.

    The military formation has 395 soldiers and officers (Shenyang Military District), including 155 from the engineering forces (16th Army Engineering Corps), 170 troops from the Guards Infantry Regiment and 70 medical personnel (Hospital No. 211, previously reported by the media Beijing’s intention to send 600 military and 150 civil engineers - approx. "VP").

    The troops will be deployed in two parties from late July to early September, will perform the tasks of repairing roads and bridges, ensuring security in the camps, providing medical assistance and evacuating the wounded, investigating explosions and neutralizing militants, and other tasks.
  15. RMRS
    RMRS 24 July 2013 21: 17
    +3
    It is very strange that China suffers from a problem with the submarine fleet, almost all the same they copied (what they could), but with the submarine fleet it is completely stagnant. My son has a lot of Chinese people studying shipbuilding at the university, all the departments are open for them, except for marine instrument engineering. Many teachers went to China in the 90s to do all kinds of research, this situation is very striking. I don’t want to offend our country, but it’s very unusual that behind in such a component China does not have any results.
    1. za VDV
      za VDV 24 July 2013 21: 25
      +5
      My opinion is that it’s very difficult for an ordinary student to join the Chinese army ... Therefore, the Chinese will undergo a natural selection and the submarine fleet will tremble as our clothing markets shrink and others ... In general, the Chinese are at least moving forward, well done, it just takes time, of course they are not warriors, but we won’t be taken by the number !!! Remember the Valorous 6th company! How many of our Chekhov put there?
      1. RMRS
        RMRS 24 July 2013 21: 32
        +3
        Students at SPbGMTU in China are some of the best students who are entrusted to come to our country to study at such a university, they are selected from all over China, and they immediately go to work not only at the shipyard, but also in the design bureau (2 4 years of study at the Polytechnic University, specialty). They’ve worked out everything for a long time. It’s possible to say that the university also stopped developing in the late 80s and cannot give anything new, but in underwater shipbuilding they didn’t even reach the 80s, which’s amazing.
        1. za VDV
          za VDV 24 July 2013 21: 43
          +2
          Thanks for the information, I am very grateful, I will know.
          1. RMRS
            RMRS 24 July 2013 21: 49
            +1
            yes it would be information, so note hi
    2. Odysseus
      Odysseus 25 July 2013 00: 21
      0
      Quote: RMRS
      It is very strange that China is suffering a problem with the submarine fleet

      China has no special problems with the submarine fleet. There are some natural problems of growth, but they are in all their armed forces.
      As they say, we would have their problems .....
      1. RMRS
        RMRS 25 July 2013 14: 35
        0
        I think there is, because the basis is morally and physically obsolete pl, there are very few new ones, and they are experiencing numerous problems. Therefore, they sit at the bases and do not go out, they can count the modern pl on the fingers of one hand, and are they modern ? since they claim that they are only suitable for the 3rd generation. If they developed a successful enough project that would be devoid of the main disadvantages (problems with reactors, equipment, noise, weapons
  16. Bersaglieri
    Bersaglieri 24 July 2013 21: 47
    +3
    "... Sean Mirsky, graduated from the University of Chicago in 2011 d. and graduate Bachelor of Economics and Political Science, as well as a master's degree in international relations, is now continuing his studies at Harvard University ... "- hmm, is there a discussion of a certain young man's coursework? It's funny :)

    "Bachelor" - 4th year graduate. Consequently, now the sought-after "analyst" is just finishing his master's degree.
    To the garden, to the younger group :)
  17. kulpin
    kulpin 24 July 2013 22: 02
    +1
    China today can do a lot. But he cannot do even more, for he does not go his own way. Obviously, playing on a foreign field, according to the rules of others, besides changing according to the will of the enemy at any time, is impossible. This has been known since Sun Tzu. It is not for us to teach the Chinese such basics. That's when they rise to their game, then we'll see.
  18. Arabist
    Arabist 24 July 2013 22: 26
    +3
    What blockade of China could there be so far most of the US industry in China?
  19. Odysseus
    Odysseus 25 July 2013 00: 19
    +2
    Sea blockade against China is practically impossible
    1) The PRC is actively building a naval base in Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, and they will not be able to simultaneously block the Indian Ocean and the long line of the US islands.
    2) Those US satellites who have the right to vote (Japan, South Caucasus) are unlikely to participate in the blockade. For them, this is pure suicide. If, say, the blockade succeeds, the PRC and the DPRK strike them with nuclear weapons.
    3) China has a large and rapidly renewing submarine fleet. It is very doubtful that the United States will be able to quickly neutralize it.
    4) This is not to mention the fact that the PRC and the United States are now very closely connected economically and, moreover, the PRC is now actively diversifying its energy exports.
    1. Conepatus
      Conepatus 25 July 2013 01: 13
      +2
      Iran is actively friends with China and I think that the blockade of China, Iran will not be ignored.
      At least for a while, but in the Persian Gulf, chaos will put it mildly.
  20. ksan
    ksan 25 July 2013 01: 55
    0
    I agree with Odysseus, this is a pure gamble. I can't even imagine what China should "do" for the States to decide on this. China is not Cuba or even Iran, but if America is "insolent" because of some (not yet understandable) considerations will decide on this, China will immediately have clear allies. And Russia is unlikely to support this blockade, on the contrary, it will help to overcome it.
  21. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 25 July 2013 06: 23
    0
    Theoretically, it is possible to arrange a blockade on China, but this is how it will look in practice, although it is not for nothing that the amers with India are beginning to have such an intense friendship. Looking at the map makes it easier to navigate:
  22. ratuld
    ratuld 25 July 2013 06: 33
    +2
    HA HA HA !! Mirsky! Big Libovsky and so on. Big strategists!
    The situation for the Anglo-Saxons is fatal.
    There will never be any war - comrade Mirsky needs to clarify where China is and what its borders are and with whom.
    Where are the main world proven reserves of strategic raw materials and the ways of its transfer.
    In general, even commenting on this strategist is somehow dumb.
    Four direct nuclear strikes on the territory of the United States in the critically seismic areas indicated since the 50s have drowned the light of civilization over the United States for the next 500 years.
    Well, what is there to be clever and inflate the gills?
    1. nerd.su
      nerd.su 26 July 2013 11: 11
      0
      Quote: ratuld
      Four direct nuclear strikes on the territory of the United States in the critically seismic areas indicated since the 50s have drowned the light of civilization over the United States for the next 500 years.

      Can you give more details? Who and where indicated such critical areas? Seems to me, the same "worldly" only from other sciences ...
  23. DPN
    DPN 25 July 2013 06: 57
    0
    The blockade of China is from the realm of fantasy, it simply will not allow this, and then how many Chinese live in the USA. They will put the states on their ears.
  24. DPN
    DPN 25 July 2013 07: 07
    +1
    The blockade can be carried out only with the help of the fifth column from the inside, following the example of the USSR, but in CHINA it seems there is NO bad government!
  25. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. 25 July 2013 14: 32
    0
    Quote: Dmitry
    and why should Vietnam be on their side?

    And this is a demonstration of the quality of the logic of liberal analysts.
    We already well understand that convincing by wishful thinking is their only way.
    1. ratuld
      ratuld 25 July 2013 16: 08
      0
      And with the fact that Vietnam pursues a typical policy for him.
      And ours and yours and theirs.
      Camran, as I understand it, we share with the Americans.
      Oil is for us.
      Solar energy - to amer.
      So in relation to China - if you suddenly need it - we will talk under warranty.
  26. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. 25 July 2013 14: 40
    0
    Quote: RMRS
    Students at SPbGMTU in China are some of the best students who are entrusted to come to our country to study at such a university, they are selected from all over China, and they immediately go to work not only at the shipyard, but also in the design bureau (2 4 years of study at the Polytechnic University, specialty). They’ve worked out everything for a long time. It’s possible to say that the university also stopped developing in the late 80s and cannot give anything new, but in underwater shipbuilding they didn’t even reach the 80s, which’s amazing.

    Since when have foreigners been taught defense technology in our universities.
    I am sure. that under the contracts, the Chinese learn to design something like landowners or fishing trawlers, in the worst case, tankers or rollers.
    1. RMRS
      RMRS 25 July 2013 14: 50
      0
      And this, too, but ocean engineering with underwater vehicles is also taught to all of them, maybe there is nothing secret - but after studying at all departments and getting together, you can come up with efficient + stealing technology. Even ours (except instrument making) do not teach technology defense. I know no more than yours, I just say that I know. And I am amazed how they still have not created modern squares. Nothing more.
  27. The comment was deleted.
  28. Sergey S.
    Sergey S. 25 July 2013 14: 42
    0
    Quote: knn54
    Worse than defeat in a war with America, there can only be an alliance with America.

    Great wording!
  29. Gato
    Gato 25 July 2013 15: 16
    0
    In general, if we ignore the comparison of the performance characteristics of destroyers and submarines, the situation may be similar to the German naval blockade at the beginning of WW2.
    Only in place of Germany will China, instead of England - Japan and the USA, but Russia will remain in its role.
    That is, it seems to be very good for Russia, but further analogies are alarming.
  30. Bersaglieri
    Bersaglieri 25 July 2013 20: 08
    +2
    Quote: Arabist
    What blockade of China could there be so far most of the US industry in China?

    Yeah ... If the US starts a blockade of China, then the buyers of goods in the Walmart network will arrange a revolution :)