Military Review

Nezvezdnye war. Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin - about five scenarios of possible wars

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The keynote speaker was Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin.


Nezvezdnye war. Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin - about five scenarios of possible wars


According to him, in order to understand what forces and means of warfare Russia needs, it is necessary to soberly assess the nature of the military threats to the country's security, albeit hypothetical. What war can we expect in the future? Who is he - this notorious "likely opponent"? This is what Rogozin answers to these questions.

Scenario 1: Contactless war with the enemy, who is at a higher technological level
We will be realistic - in the near future, Russia will hardly succeed in catching up and overtaking the leading powers in terms of the technological level of development. The Russian economy is 10 less than the US one. Yes, and the scientific potential was actually destroyed after the collapse of the USSR. Today, the lag in a number of critical basic technologies from the leading countries of the West is decades. What can we oppose to such a high-tech adversary? The answer seems obvious - the main guarantee of Russia's security is the forces of strategic nuclear deterrence. And Russia, according to military doctrine, is ready to use nuclear weaponincluding in repelling aggression using conventional means of destruction. But is it enough in today's realities only a nuclear shield?

For years, 10 in the United States has been working on the concept of a "lightning global strike." It provides for striking non-nuclear weapons on any part of the planet within one hour. In fact, American strategists had a vision of how to defeat another nuclear power with "little blood", while avoiding unacceptable damage from retaliatory actions.

At the end of 2012, the Pentagon conducted a computer game, the results of which showed that, as a result of striking a "large and highly developed country" with 3500-4000 units of precision weapons, its infrastructure would be almost completely destroyed during 6 hours, and the state would lose its ability to resist. Obviously, if such a blow is delivered to Russia, then the main objectives of the aggressor will be the forces of strategic nuclear deterrence. According to estimates in the United States, as a result of such a strike, 80-90% of our nuclear potential can be destroyed. At the same time losses among the civilian population will be minimal.

Western experts believe that although Russia will still have the opportunity to strike back a nuclear strike, the military-political leadership of our country is unlikely to do this: after all, the remaining funds, which in turn will attempt to intercept the global missile defense, we will no longer be able to deliver unacceptable damage to the enemy, but in the case of a nuclear strike will suffer enormous losses. Such an attack will be accompanied by a powerful outreach impact on the population of the victim country.

What can we do to counter this threat? This should be an asymmetrical response, using fundamentally new types of weapons. They should not rely on existing telecommunications systems that can be disabled in minutes. It should be an autonomous, self-sufficient weapon that can independently solve its tasks.

2 Scenario: Contact war with an adversary that is on a technological level equal to us
Since the collapse of the USSR, the strength of the Armed Forces has decreased by more than 4 times. Thousands of kilometers of the border remained uncovered. The leadership of the Russian Federation today is betting on the rapid reaction force, i.e. on the operational potential of the Airborne Forces and the mobility of the troops. As a result, we were able to quickly form powerful army groups of troops deployed from other regions of the country in a threatened direction. But will they be able to resist the enemy, who had previously created a numerical advantage in the conflict zone?

Today, there are alternative classical military theory views on ways to repel such a threat. According to him, such a war should be conducted nevertheless non-contact - with the help of weapons with a large radius of action.

3 Scenario: Local Wars
The largest local conflict of our time - the war in Afghanistan, has become a cold shower for the Soviet military leadership. One of the main reasons for the escalation of the conflict and its escalation into an exhausting guerrilla war was that the army did not have weapons that could inflict targeted, targeted influence on the enemy. The army, prepared for large-scale combat operations, was forced to work "over the areas" - using multiple launch rocket systems, heavy artillery, long-range aviation. All this led to high losses among the civilian population and the rapid growth of supporters of the armed opposition.

By the middle of the 80-ies, a paradoxical situation developed in Afghanistan: the most effective special forces were operating against the Mujahideen, using essentially the same tactics and the same armament as their opponent. There was only one difference - behind our troops was a huge country with a powerful military industrial complex and military science, which, as it turned out, could not foresee and adequately respond to the Afghan challenge. We encountered similar problems later in the North Caucasus.

In the course of reforming the army, the experience of its participation in local conflicts was taken into account. For example, light armored vehicles with enhanced mine protection, unmanned vehicles, etc., began to enter service. But the problem of the disproportionality of the force applied to the level of the tasks facing the army in local conflicts is still not resolved. Today, like 30 years ago, we have only those tools that, if applied, bring the conflict into a more difficult phase. We also need a weapon that will allow the soldier to be taken out of a direct clash, capable of hitting only those targets that really pose a danger to us.

The 4 Scenario: Countering Terrorism, Including State
The level of terrorist threat today is comparable to the military. In the hands of criminals are all new tools, which leads to the emergence of new threats. Terrorists are adopting information technology. The goals of cyber attacks can be both gaining access to state and personal secrets, as well as direct attacks to destroy the administrative elite and infrastructure of states.

At the same time, the fight against terrorism in Russia today basically comes down to operational-search measures, which are not always coordinated by the special services and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Information technologies are used only as auxiliary mechanisms. Meanwhile, in a number of countries, highly intelligent information systems are being developed that can bring the effectiveness of countering terrorism to a qualitatively new level. In such systems, information flows from border crossings, transport, and outdoor video surveillance cameras will be integrated. But the developers of such systems face serious problems - the current level of computer technology does not yet allow processing such powerful information flows. The task can be solved by creating an extraordinary information system, the outlines of which are already being worked out in Russia.

5 Scenario: Arctic Contest
The active development of the Arctic shelf will inevitably lead to a conflict of interest between the countries making their claims to its resources. It is possible that the confrontation will go beyond the diplomatic. It is likely that Russian oil and gas production facilities may become targets for sabotage by competing countries. It should be understood that the perpetrators of such sabotage may not be clearly associated with the client countries. To strike back and determine the scale of the use of force, it is necessary not only to fix the executors, but also to identify their customers. This requires modern monitoring tools that can work effectively in air and water environments. In the meantime, we do not have such funds in full.

The revitalization of the Northern Sea Route will also not add calm to the Arctic. NATO has long been discussing plans to strengthen the naval grouping there under the pretext of protecting commercial shipping.
Originator:
http://www.rg.ru/2013/07/04/voyna.html
132 comments
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  1. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 8 July 2013 06: 42 New
    12
    the war must still be conducted non-contact - with the help of weapons with a large radius of action
    Gold words.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 07: 56 New
      17
      Quote: Thunderbolt
      Gold words.

      Rogozin has only words
      At the end of 2012, the Pentagon conducted a computer game, the results of which showed that as a result of a strike on a "large and highly developed country" with the use of 3500-4000 precision weapons within 6 hours, its infrastructure would be almost completely destroyed, and the state would lose its ability to resist.
      And all these 6 hours, Russia will sit back and watch how everything around is destroyed fool
      In just 2 hours, half the US will be ashes. Apparently this is not taken into account in the Pentagon, but maybe the losses are acceptable. winked
      1. hommer
        hommer 8 July 2013 08: 27 New
        +7
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Rogozin has only words


        I agree, while only blah blah blah.

        "It should be an autonomous, self-sufficient weapon that can independently solve its problems." - a quote from the article.

        Which one, for example? You mean the 15E601 "Perimeter" ("Dead Hand") system or something else?
        1. Metlik
          Metlik 8 July 2013 09: 37 New
          +9
          Quote: hommer
          I agree, while only blah blah blah.

          Words can be more dangerous than weapons. I like Rogozin's systematic approach. Our leadership very often clutches at one thing, then another. And in the end, we again step on the rake already repeatedly tested.
          1. host
            host 8 July 2013 11: 02 New
            +2
            It was smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines.
            And who remained in the Army, before the multiple increase in salary? And will they let someone more professional and smarter to the feeder? NOT!
            Now in the Army there is a struggle for money, as in the whole country.
            The stable fall of rockets and the billionth theft in the Army are proof of this.
            Option six: have time to detonate nuclear weapons at least on its territory, before the complete surrender to the enemy.
            1. Wedmak
              Wedmak 8 July 2013 11: 14 New
              +3
              You are an alarmist, a pessimist, and apparently you do not care what happens to the country. Let’s then just sit down, put our hands on our knees and quietly wait for the American soldiers with a can of stew ...
              Stable rocket fall

              Stable ??? There are dozens of them, 3 (!) Has fallen. Is this called stable ???? Yes, you must be shot for sowing decadent moods as a representative of the fifth column!
              Option six: have time to detonate nuclear weapons at least on its territory, before the complete surrender to the enemy.

              Defeatist.
              1. Rus2012
                Rus2012 8 July 2013 19: 34 New
                +2
                Quote: Wedmak
                Defeatist.

                ... only it will be necessary to remember in time the clauses of the Charter that read: "alarmists, provocateurs and defeatists - to destroy in the first place, without trial or investigation" :)
          2. Alexander Romanov
            Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 14: 26 New
            +2
            Quote: Metlik
            I like Rogozin's systematic approach.

            And what is the system, more said, less done wassat
            1. Metlik
              Metlik 8 July 2013 15: 00 New
              +3
              Quote: Alexander Romanov
              And what is the system

              In order to arm properly, you need to understand when, against whom and how this or that weapon will be used. It is necessary to constantly predict when a crisis is possible, so that the army would meet him at the peak of his form.
              The report, in my opinion, is a pretty good analysis of possible threats.
        2. Hauser
          Hauser 8 July 2013 12: 16 New
          +7
          There is no limit to the creativity of thinking of the Russian person, and everyone knows about this very well. It has been said that the answer will be asymmetric. Here information slipped through about an autonomous stationary underwater missile "Skif". In fact, why put all your eggs in one basket (in this case, in a submarine), it is better to scatter them in different parts of the world's oceans. Cheap and cheerful.
          And then there is such a thing as sabotage war. A dozen 2, 3 kiloton bombs or mines, correctly placed, from New York will not leave a trace. (This is for example.)
          Two Chechen boys with a pressure cooker put half of America on their ears, and if something more serious happened, troops from around the world would have to withdraw it in order to curb chaos.
          1. Wedmak
            Wedmak 8 July 2013 12: 28 New
            +2
            and if something more serious happens, troops from around the world will have to withdraw, in order to curb chaos.

            The question is what will happen if all these troops return to their homeland and go under reduction in numbers.
          2. dustycat
            dustycat 8 July 2013 17: 02 New
            +2
            Ask what the National Guard is and who they are National Guards.
            The trick is that there is no need to return the army to the states.
            She is always at home. Some part of it is quite sufficient to counter chaos.

            The difference is from our stock - their weapons are stored at home and they are required to regularly train in their use.
            1. Wedmak
              Wedmak 8 July 2013 17: 19 New
              0
              And here Nat. guard? I'm talking about ordinary fighters in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, etc. "work" ...

              The difference is from our stock - their weapons are stored at home and they are required to regularly train in their use.

              You are not confused with Israel?
        3. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 14: 26 New
          0
          Quote: hommer
          You mean the 15E601 "Perimeter" ("Dead Hand") system or something else?

          Do you think he knows?
          1. hommer
            hommer 9 July 2013 07: 57 New
            0
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Do you think he knows?


            Must know.
        4. Rus2012
          Rus2012 8 July 2013 19: 17 New
          +2
          Quote: hommer
          Which one, for example? You mean the 15E601 "Perimeter" ("Dead Hand") system or something else?

          Dear colleague, Perimeter is not a weapon. but just a tool of the concept. Or a weapon control system, or rather a defense complex.
          Imagine, as a result of a disarming strike - almost EVERYTHING was destroyed, then there is nothing to answer ...

          As for the 6-hour exposure with a high-precision global strike, our opponents are certainly in a surreal world. For, only they can deeply believe in the effectiveness of THEIR rules and the conviction that the adversary will follow THESE rules.
          For example, they are convinced of the inviolability of the chess rules (at the same time, they are gradually trying to drag the move or slam a piece along the way). But we know that even in this game, there is a "non-standard way out", which consists in the fact that the opponent can throw off all the pieces from the field at once and the board enter the table (12 chairs, New Vasyuki).
          Or closer to reality - the "cudgel of the people's war" against Napoleon ...

          If closer to the topic, the Politburo has always kept in mind - "a general preventive strike by all forces and means on all potential enemies" in the threatened period, when it becomes clear that war cannot be avoided. And there were no "steps of escalation" in the American classical science of the beginning of a nuclear war ...
      2. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 8 July 2013 08: 41 New
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        At the end of 2012, the Pentagon held a computer game
        bully Honestly, I don’t trust computer games at all, about which then the entire Internet “rages.” Moreover, this information does not indicate Russia directly (as a result of a blow to a “large and highly developed country”), it is more about China All the same, at the moment we have parity and any such "Global Strike" can nip in the bud, the constant combat readiness of the strategic nuclear forces is a guarantee. , huge resources, production capacities and the planned progress of their development (after all, they did not have Perestroika, etc.) - this is a serious challenge for the not-so-distant future.
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Rogozin has only words
        There are a lot of words and truth, here’s what topic you don’t take; you can find Comrade Rogozin’s opinion on this subject laughing It’s not usual for me, all the same, before the problems of our defense were not brought to such a wide audience, and here are such revelations from such an important official ... Well, that means that we have such a state policy now. There are more large-scale productions and everything will go to the troops. Here are my aspirations.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 14: 28 New
          +3
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          Previously, the problems of our defense were not brought to such a wide audience, but here are such revelations from such an important official ..

          Earlier in such amounts, money did not go to the defense industry, there was nothing to steal. Now trillions direct and steal is not childish, hence the whole chatter went hi
          1. Thunderbolt
            Thunderbolt 8 July 2013 15: 05 New
            +1
            I have already sworn to comment on the topic of theft and corruption (although no, no, yes, it breaks through ..) This can be said to be the "Basis" on which there are all, even if good, initiatives of our officials. Until there is personal criminal responsibility --- this is will strongly slow down EVERYTHING (not only the military industry). And this phenomenon has a destructive effect on the very basis of our statehood, but not in an obvious way, but as radiation, gradually, all-pervading, with the accumulation of dangerous metastases. In a word, I do not like to write about this (how much you can !!!) That's all --- put the last smiley and "amba".Corruption is am
            1. kavkaz8888
              kavkaz8888 8 July 2013 23: 53 New
              0
              And mandatory confiscation. Family hostel.
        2. Rus2012
          Rus2012 8 July 2013 19: 44 New
          +1
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          But the fact that the US is striving to leave us far behind promising high-precision weapons systems

          ...Yes Yes!
          And also -
          Western experts believe that although Russia will still have the opportunity to retaliate, the military-political leadership of our country is unlikely to do this

          Only, as it seems, VVP - as a Russian person who has all the character traits of our people - will go to the end in this matter. At worst, he will be backed up by the "Dead Hand" ...
      3. avt
        avt 8 July 2013 09: 37 New
        +4
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Rogozin has only words

        If there’s also a budget line, so that his words are really golden, well, at least ruble, so far with business it’s not very request .
      4. SPACE
        SPACE 8 July 2013 09: 38 New
        +1
        "Scenario 1: A contactless war with an adversary at a higher technological level
        Let's be realistic - in the near future, Russia will hardly be able to catch up and overtake the leading powers in terms of the technological level of development. "
        If these are really Rogozin’s words, then ... request ! Did the amers also give him an iPhone? Mr. Rogozin let it be known to you that: "There is no iPhone against the scrap, if there is no other scrap." laughing What kind of "technological level" is this? That we will not be able to catch up with our AL-31, RD-180, NK-33, Sukhoi, Protons, Unions, Glonas ... This is probably a trend with a clever look tryndet about Hi-Tec ... but I still chop wood with an ax !? laughing
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        And all these 6 hours, Russia will sit back and watch how everything around is destroyed

        hi Yeah, the Pentagon continues to love its supercomputer, its brains are gone. In general, the pentagon gave birth to a naked ass and the hedgehog was scared or did he pretend? what
        1. vomag
          vomag 8 July 2013 10: 57 New
          0
          yeah comrade cosmos we will be realistic be sure and therefore amers there at the pentagon let them continue to pout in sony playstation there in ikkh boxing and call of duty for 5-6 hours and 3000 precision weapons (hahaha rzhu not mage) but what then they’ve been sitting in Afghanistan for 5 or 6 years, and they say they’re waving their fists at Iran, we say ...... (well, after all crap about high-precision and 5 hours) they said they did 5 hours and democratized Iran until the Stone Age !! there is no current threat of corpses and the shameful flight from Afghanistan!
        2. Dimy4
          Dimy4 8 July 2013 11: 20 New
          +1
          Apparently this is not taken into account in the Pentagon, but maybe the losses are acceptable.

          And they don’t even imagine how it is possible to resist them, and even with weapons.
        3. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 05 New
          +1
          Quite a sober assessment.
          In these matters, it’s better to cross over like Israel than to tear up an extra shirt on your chest and wave another hat on the floor.
      5. Nitup
        Nitup 8 July 2013 09: 39 New
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        And all these 6 hours, Russia will sit back and watch how everything around is destroyed
        In just 2 hours, half the US will be ashes.

        And no one will simply respond with strategic nuclear weapons to attacks by conventional high-precision weapons against military facilities, knowing that in response there will also be a strategic nuclear strike against cities, etc., and complete mutual destruction. So, if we want to avoid such scenarios and even simply blackmail by the Americans, we need, firstly, to create a powerful aerospace defense system, and secondly, to be able to deliver a massive blow with conventional high-precision weapons to the United States.
        1. xmike
          xmike 8 July 2013 10: 17 New
          +5
          And no one will simply respond with strategic nuclear weapons to attacks by conventional high-precision weapons against military targets, knowing that in response there will also be a strategic nuclear strike against cities, etc., and complete mutual destruction.

          The nuclear weapons response is the main trump card and a deterrent. Confidence that we will use nuclear weapons is the only thing that holds back today.
          1. Nitup
            Nitup 8 July 2013 10: 34 New
            +1
            Quote: xmike
            The nuclear weapons response is the main trump card and a deterrent. Confidence that we will use nuclear weapons is the only thing that holds back today.

            This holds back and will hold back only a strike against us with nuclear weapons, but not with a high-precision non-nuclear weapon.
        2. bootlegger
          bootlegger 8 July 2013 10: 31 New
          +2
          Well hello there!
          What has changed since the days of the USSR? Then, after all, there was also a weapon capable of delivering a disarming strike within 10-15 minutes.
          The whole charm was that the blow was delivered from Europe and there was no reason (it would seem) for the United States to respond. Indeed, why should they be drawn into the conflict? Can it hurt to answer?
          This was called the doctrine of limited nuclear war.
          In the second half of the 1950s, the concept of limited nuclear war was put forward in the United States. Later, in the 1970s, such a conflict began to be seen as an armed struggle with the use of various types of weapons, including tactical and operational-tactical nuclear weapons, the use of which is limited in scope, areas of use and types of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons in this case are used to destroy the most important military and military-economic targets of the enemy.

          Theorists of limited nuclear war proceed from the assumption that in the event of such a conflict, the list of targets can be limited to enemy launchers and airfields, as well as its military-industrial and transport infrastructure (oil enterprises, communication systems, railway junctions, etc.). Other facilities (cities, coal mines, power plants) must remain “hostage” in order to ensure that the signing is beneficial to the attacking side of the world. Therefore, the concepts of “escalation control” and “escalation domination” developed in the USA in the early 1960s are the key element of the concept of limited nuclear war. The first assumes that one of the opponents will be able to impose on the opposite side a scenario in which the conflict is limited to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The second is that one of the opponents will maintain superiority over the opponent at all stages of a limited nuclear conflict. According to the limited nuclear war theorists, superiority in strategic nuclear weapons, primarily in means of delivering a counter-force strike, is a necessary condition for escalation domination. However, the implementation of “escalation control” and “escalation domination” rests against the problem that cannot be solved until now: how to keep the conflict at the stage of using tactical nuclear weapons, if the opposite side decides to use strategic nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction.

          Pay attention to the highlighted text at the end. This problem has not been solved yet.
          1. dustycat
            dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 07 New
            +1
            What has changed is that now the missile trains on the Northern Railway do not travel, and that road itself is in a very sad state and there is no talk of its modernization.
          2. Rus2012
            Rus2012 8 July 2013 19: 53 New
            +2
            Quote: bootlegger
            Pay attention to the highlighted text at the end. This problem has not been solved yet.

            ... already wrote above - the Politburo assumed - "to beat everyone at once" regardless of the personality ... The Yankees knew this. In the opinion of their competent comrades, only THIS held them back.
        3. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 14: 31 New
          +2
          Quote: Nitup
          And no one will simply respond with strategic nuclear weapons to attacks by conventional high-precision weapons at military facilities

          No damn, everyone will sit and watch how they destroy the base fool
          Quote: Nitup
          firstly, to create a powerful aerospace defense system, and secondly, to be able to deliver a massive blow with conventional high-precision weapons throughout the United States

          In short, the arms race and this is only one thing. Second, how many years will it take?
          1. Nitup
            Nitup 8 July 2013 20: 03 New
            +1
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            No damn, everyone will sit and watch how they destroy the base

            Wait, do not rush to twist a finger at the temple, dear. Imagine the situation: if the United States uses conventional non-nuclear weapons to strike not at our cities, but at its strategic nuclear forces, the casualties will be minimal. Will Russia begin to strike at the United States with a nuclear strike, realizing that it will also receive a nuclear strike, but will it already be megatons in cities and complete mutual destruction?
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            In short, the arms race and this is only one thing. Second, how many years will it take?

            Well, maybe an arms race. But this is not our choice. We do not need to catch up with the United States and equal to them in terms of the number of WTOs, as in the Cold War they chased in terms of the number of nuclear charges. We had the opportunity to destroy the planet dozens of times, but once would be enough. We must be able to inflict a massive non-nuclear strike on the United States and thereby minimize such a threat to us.
            1. bootlegger
              bootlegger 8 July 2013 22: 44 New
              +1
              Why not?
              Although I can imagine the situation that at first a nuclear strike will only be on NATO bases and their fleet. And on the territory of the United States with conventional weapons.
              In accordance with the concept of limited nuclear war.
              Here the United States will have a choice. If you answer nuclear weapons already on our territory, then they will also know what they will receive in full.
        4. Rus2012
          Rus2012 8 July 2013 19: 48 New
          +5
          Quote: Nitup
          nobody will simply respond with strategic nuclear weapons to attacks by conventional high-precision weapons at military facilities,

          Dear colleague, do you know that any impact on nuclear weapons facilities or strategic weapon control centers is equivalent to attacks using nuclear weapons?
          If not, then - OH ...
          1. Nitup
            Nitup 8 July 2013 20: 12 New
            0
            Quote: Rus2012
            Dear colleague, do you know that any impact on nuclear weapons facilities or strategic weapon control centers is equivalent to attacks using nuclear weapons?
            If not, then - OH ...

            And what about the fact that they are equated. They will beat us, and we say that we have something equal there? In general, read my comment above.
      6. Denis
        8 July 2013 10: 29 New
        +1
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Rogozin has only words
        He’s an official, such a job. He would have created the conditions for the military and designers and that’s the thing. The main word for them
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 09 New
          0
          Only an article in the media depends on him and his desires.
          Everything else depends on other officials and "effective managers".
      7. Arberes
        Arberes 8 July 2013 10: 50 New
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Apparently this is not taken into account in the Pentagon, but maybe the losses are acceptable.

        They take it into account as they take it into account, otherwise they would have destroyed us long ago!


        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        In just 2 hours, half the US will be ashes

        Alexander, good afternoon! Yes, probably even earlier? drinks
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 12 New
          +1
          After 80 seconds of flight, the rocket starting from Baikonur is called "going over the hill". Throw in another 20-30 minutes.
      8. Airman
        Airman 8 July 2013 11: 36 New
        -2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov

        [B]
        And all these 6 hours, Russia will sit back and watch how everything around is destroyed fool
        In just 2 hours, half the US will be ashes. Apparently this is not taken into account in the Pentagon, but maybe the losses are acceptable. winked

        But will the Supreme Commander be at this time somewhere at the summit or on another foreign trip?
      9. Geisenberg
        Geisenberg 8 July 2013 12: 38 New
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        In just 2 hours, half the US will be ashes. Apparently this is not taken into account in the Pentagon, but maybe the losses are acceptable. winked


        Even if the leadership falls into a stupor for 5 hours and 30 minutes, leaving it will give an order for a retaliatory strike of 10% of the remaining nuclear weapons ... this is quite enough to demolish the largest cities in America, which will automatically end the aggression.
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 14 New
          +1
          In addition to America, there is also Anglo-Saxony.
      10. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 8 July 2013 16: 41 New
        +2
        Take into account. Such a scenario can only be realized when there is a clear development to neutralize the activity of senior management. Otherwise, of course, we would have been conquered. As soon as they have 70-75% confidence that the button of the nuclear briefcase will not be pressed, they will rush right there.
        Here Yeltsin and I are ... lucky! Because the West hoped to do without war at all, with such a leader. And then I was lucky with Putin, you can't “neutralize” him so easily, no matter how the neutralizer is torn off. Although there is a danger, and it is high.
        1. Rus2012
          Rus2012 8 July 2013 20: 02 New
          +1
          Quote: Mikhail3
          As soon as they have 70-75% confidence that the button of the nuclear briefcase will not be pressed, they will rush right there. Here we are with Yeltsin ... lucky!

          ... with EBN - no luck (remember Yugoslavia. If he had hit his boot like Khrushch, no one would have twitched).
          All the more bad luck with the "tagged" - voluntarily disarmed ...
          Khrushch also during the Caribbean - "spawned", be consistent and firmer - there could well have been a different, more positive result. And his "kingdom" would have lasted longer ...
          If anyone was persistent and consistent, then only Comrade. Joseph Vissarionovich.

          There is some hope that GDP will live up to expectations. We'll see...
    2. Airman
      Airman 8 July 2013 11: 49 New
      +1
      Quote: Thunderbolt
      the war must still be conducted non-contact - with the help of weapons with a large radius of action
      Gold words.


      In the 2nd scenario, everything again rests on nuclear weapons, because it is very difficult to quickly build up the force grouping. Airborne without heavy weapons and low efficiency of their own air defense systems may not be effective enough against a large mass of troops.
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 8 July 2013 13: 27 New
        +1
        As in the First World War, we lag behind the speed of mobilization from the Germans.
        Quote: Povshnik
        it’s very difficult to quickly build up a force grouping
        To the enemy covertly it is also not easy to build up a strike force with all the measures. So we need to have a powerful strike "air fist" which is not very limited in maneuver and in the speed of deployment. By itself, it is a significant deterrent.
        the war must still be conducted non-contact - with the help of weapons with a large radius of action
        .
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 18 New
          0
          Or use the example of Israel and mattresses - to organize National squads. To do this, the law on weapons is a little bit to bluff.
          It’s true that the pacifipigators will scream again that we’ll shoot each other ...
    3. honest jew
      honest jew 8 July 2013 13: 49 New
      -5
      Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin - on five scenarios of possible wars

      and then Ostap suffered !!!!!
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 8 July 2013 15: 03 New
        +1
        Quote: Honest Jew
        Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin - on five scenarios of possible wars
        and then Ostap suffered !!!!!

        Dear Yitzhak, by the shell. You are more likely a cunning Jew than an honest one. I was on a business trip for a week and missed so many interesting things. BUT! Rogozin's report was reviewed and read. There is one detail: Before the start of aggression, a massive information attack will be carried out. One of the goals of which is to discredit the military-political leadership of the country. In my opinion, you have already begun to undermine the faith of members of the forum in Putin and Rogozin. This is to your words a week ago that the country is governed by a world government and our leaders are doing only what they allow from the "other Kremlin" (picture of London). Therefore, you better remain an honest Jew.
        The speech of D.O. Rogozin specified the provisions of the state’s doctrine on the types and nature of possible wars. The main thing in it is clearly stated about the goal-setting: the goal that must be achieved so that the aggressor does not have the temptation to try to carry out a disarming strike. There is only one way - unconventional, autonomous, self-sufficient types of new weapons. In the meantime, it will not be created, it will be necessary to strengthen the strategic nuclear forces, and especially their mobile component. So Sevmash promised this year two new Boreas to put the fleet. Which in itself cannot but please an honest Jew!
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 24 New
          +1
          And there are many here who, with sober thought, soberly believe in two temporarily acting?


          The weapon and the answer can be not only new, but well forgotten old.
          In total, less than 200-300 years ago, grandfather swords, helmets and chain mail were stored in almost every Russian house. And someone has guns and fusees and mortars.
          And at every monastery the arsenal was not sickly for the militias, not only for monks.

          I’m silent about the funny comic pointers. They only make tourists laugh.
  2. vladeinord
    vladeinord 8 July 2013 06: 45 New
    +4
    What remains to be added: to work, work and once again work on it.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 07: 57 New
      +1
      Quote: vladeinord
      work, work and work on it again.

      Above this is what?
      1. Denis
        8 July 2013 08: 29 New
        +4
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Above this is what?
        Probably over retaliation and such that they were even afraid to think about it
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 8 July 2013 14: 33 New
          0
          Quote: Denis
          Probably

          A person has a good post, not only is the other responsible for him, he also thinks of lol
          1. dustycat
            dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 27 New
            0
            I’m thinking - should I order a three-line or Saigu in a weapons store?
            Although somewhere else a couple of rods are lying around from ChTZ .. They have an internal caliber of just 9mm.
  3. sir.jonn
    sir.jonn 8 July 2013 06: 56 New
    +5
    For 10 years the United States has been working on the concept of "lightning-fast global strike"

    Reminds Hitlerite Germany with "blitz krieg" her mother by the leg.
    1. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 32 New
      +1
      Blitzkrieg is the main bad idea of ​​the Anglo-Saxons since the First World War.
      Well, they don’t have a habit of waving their fists after a lost battle.
      Maximum evil revenge (Of the 30 submarines participating in the raid on PrelHarbor, everyone was destroyed, everyone remembers Dresden and Hiroshima and Nagasaki and Khatyn and Babi Yar, and Hitler remembered the blue carriage to the French).
  4. alexng
    alexng 8 July 2013 07: 09 New
    +5
    America will not be able to catch Russia by surprise. And Russia is one of the 4 natural inalienable zones necessary for the existence of mankind. So on the side of Russia is also Mother Nature. And the Amers do not take into account that those who left for them in the 90s will be on the side of the country where they were born. Plus, the presence of weapons, which works autonomously, without the help of a satellite system. Yes, and everything can go wrong with the aggressor as planned (guaranteed to go wrong the way they want - this is Russia), and that's another story.
    1. Corsair
      Corsair 8 July 2013 09: 35 New
      +5
      Quote: alexneg
      Yes, and everything can go wrong with the aggressor as planned (guaranteed to go the wrong way - they are Russia

      "Law of meanness" or TN "Murphy's law" multiplied by Russian realities laughing
      1. alexng
        alexng 8 July 2013 13: 11 New
        +1
        Aha! And one of them reads (paraphrasing a little) as follows: "If they can not dock, it will certainly happen," because this is Russia.
        1. Wedmak
          Wedmak 8 July 2013 13: 23 New
          +1
          because it is Russia.

          about the games ...
          We, in dungeon "Russia", have an increased chance of not joining the campaign. How many centuries climb to us, they can not finish the quest in any way. No docking!
          1. afire
            afire 8 July 2013 13: 35 New
            +2
            the lack of connections is due to the incomprehensibility of what is happening and the chaotic confusion
        2. kavkaz8888
          kavkaz8888 9 July 2013 00: 09 New
          0
          And Hitler succeeded "if everything goes well at first, then everything will end with a complete ass"
  5. Canep
    Canep 8 July 2013 07: 16 New
    +4
    The revitalization of the Northern Sea Route will also not add calm to the Arctic. NATO has long been discussing plans to strengthen the naval grouping there under the pretext of protecting commercial shipping.
    The Northern Sea Route cannot be let out of Russian control, the number of active ships of the Northern Fleet needs to be increased several times, and new naval and military air bases should be built on the northern coast and the Far East.
    1. Denis
      8 July 2013 07: 26 New
      +1
      Quote: Canep
      The Northern Sea Route cannot be let out of Russian control
      No wonder they even in the 2-th World, even when it was still not so developed, the Germans were very interested
      1. dustycat
        dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 36 New
        +2
        It is necessary to build and provide for them dozens of icebreakers of the Lenin type for 40 launchers and 100 smaller cruise missiles.
        And they will work along the route and in a sense hold potential allies.
  6. engineer74
    engineer74 8 July 2013 07: 33 New
    +6
    "At the same time, civilian casualties will be minimal."
    The civilian population after such a blow will cease to exist at all, they teach our history poorly, very poorly ...No.
    At least we figured out where we get the phrase "people's war", "patriotic war" ...
    1. Warrawar
      Warrawar 8 July 2013 07: 43 New
      0
      Quote: engineer74
      "At the same time, civilian casualties will be minimal."
      The civilian population after such a blow will cease to exist at all, they teach our history poorly, very poorly ...No.
      At least we figured out where we get the phrase "people's war", "patriotic war" ...

      The time is not right now. The people crushed.
      1. Denis
        8 July 2013 07: 49 New
        +7
        Quote: Warrawar
        The people crushed.
        - Yes, there were people in our time,
        Not that the present tribe:
        Heroes - not you! ...
        When M.Yu. Lermontov wrote, they didn’t crush it at all, Russia is still alive!
      2. engineer74
        engineer74 8 July 2013 07: 57 New
        +3
        "The time is not right now. The people are getting smaller."
        All conquered hoping for it.
      3. dustycat
        dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 40 New
        +1
        Hmm ...
        Here on some forums sometimes polls on this topic are conducted ...
        So the main thesis of the modern generation is shitty power, but this is our power - we will deal with it ourselves, and let others not climb.

        This generation is very strange - nekst.
      4. kavkaz8888
        kavkaz8888 9 July 2013 00: 13 New
        +2
        Talk to people about this topic first. People calmly talk about the war, they are ready for it. Morally.

        And if, according to a zombie man, more often than not a movie about the Second World War can be talked about and about the White Swans, then the person in the attack will still cry for Putin!

        Nishtyak came up with a medal to me.
  7. individual
    individual 8 July 2013 07: 55 New
    +4
    D. Rogozin identified all threats and indicated methods for eliminating them.
    The "fifth column" remains, let us recall its role in the massive decomposition of the army into Chechen companies, when even in peaceful cities of Russia, servicemen were careful not to wear uniforms. This column did not go anywhere, it was reformatted to decompose state foundations. Its leaders still hold significant positions in the media and beyond ...
    No one has canceled this danger.
    1. Corsair
      Corsair 8 July 2013 09: 42 New
      +1
      Quote: individ
      No one has canceled this danger.

      It is worthwhile to realize that with an act of external aggression, the leadership of the state will simply be obliged to accept (forced to) RADICAL measures to suppress the "fifth column" ... And something tells me that it will be tough and effective.
    2. Cheloveck
      Cheloveck 8 July 2013 13: 27 New
      +1
      Quote: individ
      The "fifth column" remains, let us recall its role in the massive decomposition of the army into Chechen companies, when even in peaceful cities of Russia, servicemen were careful not to wear uniforms. This column did not go anywhere, it was reformatted to decompose state foundations. Its leaders still occupy significant positions in the media and not only ... Nobody canceled this danger.

      It is said: "Not 37 years old !!!"
      That is.
      The fifth column must now be cherished, cared for and cherished!
      1. Wedmak
        Wedmak 8 July 2013 13: 33 New
        +2
        The fifth column must now be cherished, cared for and cherished!

        And then pickle in oak barrels and send them to the owners.
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 44 New
          0
          Correctly, that there was someone in "when the Motherland orders" to knead on the wires.
      2. dustycat
        dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 43 New
        +1
        Well, in the USSR it was not cleaned up in 1937, but in 1944.
  8. pensioner
    pensioner 8 July 2013 08: 23 New
    +2
    It seems to me that most of all we are vulnerable in the information sphere. What is it that they slip us under the Vindous shell - the hell knows ... And even if the military has everything, but still there are critical vulnerabilities that can be affected through software, from Amer’s production. Iranians have already encountered this, like 10 years ago. And our mentality to special accuracy when copying - copying does not have. But there were already unpleasant cases. At least for the example of Yekaterinburg: http://newsru.com/russia/14may2012/bulavute.html
  9. pav-pon1972
    pav-pon1972 8 July 2013 08: 42 New
    0
    the article is interesting, but the typology of wars and the type must be separated. And what is at the moment is a fact ... And God forbid, none of these wars are currently being fought with the use of the RF Armed Forces (well, not counting the "humanitarian" aid to Syria and Iran ...) :))
  10. Avenger711
    Avenger711 8 July 2013 08: 44 New
    +2
    It provides for striking with non-nuclear weapons anywhere in the world within one hour. In fact, American strategists have a vision of how one can defeat another nuclear power with "little blood" while avoiding unacceptable damage from retaliation.


    Bullshit. The same ICBM without a nuclear warhead, respectively, an attempt to use such crap will simply lead to a retaliatory nuclear strike. And it will take less than an hour to fly missiles. With a disparate effect. This crap is conceptually meaningless, if you already have an ICBM, then you can deliver anything, anywhere. That is, the task of delivering ammunition to any point was unequivocally solved back in 1957, when the satellite flew. And the Yankees then had their pants wet precisely because the rocket that launched the satellite into orbit would deliver the atomic bomb to Washington. The fundamental non-use of nuclear weapons and, in fact, meteorite bombing are applicable only to countries that cannot respond, but they can be democratized in simpler ways.

    At the end of 2012, the Pentagon conducted a computer game, the results of which showed that as a result of a strike on a "large and highly developed country" with the use of 3500-4000 precision weapons within 6 hours, its infrastructure would be almost completely destroyed, and the state would lose its ability to resist.


    Nonsense, the carriers of these means of destruction will not even reach the launch range, because they will not be allowed there, in itself an attempt to concentrate them, this is a reason for an ultimatum, to turn everyone back for 24 hours, otherwise you were warned. If not, then the country is "large and highly technological" => all potentially dangerous objects will be attacked by aviation and, possibly, by nuclear weapons.
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 8 July 2013 16: 03 New
      +4
      Quote: Avenger711
      Bullshit, the carriers of these weapons will not even reach the launch range, because they will not be allowed to go there,

      You are categorically categorical in judgments. Need softer ...
      Try not to let the PLA on the line of the task. Or SAK forbid daily patrolling. Or do not let the space group fly over the country. Yes, satellites do not carry nuclear weapons yet, but no one guarantees their lack of powerful EMG capable of burning out all the enemy’s electronics. Etc.
      So to think in terms of land combat is not always productive on a global scale. IMHO.
      1. Avenger711
        Avenger711 8 July 2013 18: 30 New
        +1
        The submarines are not capable of delivering 1000 charges, in fact they are the only ones who can bring hatchets and they will not do anything with it, however, the mass exit of all boats will still be noticed and will raise many questions. That is, on a global scale, the operation to cast a highly developed country will require weeks, or even months, of concentration of forces, leaving time for reaction.
    2. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 51 New
      +1
      The mass of TNT warhead 0,5-3t. Accordingly, the damage will be at 0,0005-0,003kt.
      With the same mass of nuclear warheads, the damage will be 10-10000ct.
      Do not compare your finger with what you are made of.
      Sorry, Mr. Troll, for the metaphor.
  11. Avenger711
    Avenger711 8 July 2013 08: 50 New
    0
    Thousands of kilometers of the border remained undisguised.


    Amendment, thousands of kilometers of bare desert and icy seas, from where an attack is impossible in principle. The declared army of a million people is, in principle, sufficient for the defense of the country, without attempting to solve problems on a global scale. The forces of potential opponents also decreased significantly.

    The leadership of the Russian Federation today relies on rapid reaction forces, i.e. on the operational potential of the Airborne Forces and the mobility of troops. As a result, we became able to quickly form powerful army groups from troops deployed from other regions of the country in a short time. But will they be able to withstand an adversary who has previously created a numerical superiority in the conflict zone?


    Airborne forces do not affect the defense of the country due to the small size and lack of tanks. However, there is no bet on them and is not expected. They are designed to counter the threats of local wars.
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 8 July 2013 16: 43 New
      +1
      Quote: Avenger711
      thousands of kilometers of bare desert and icy seas, from where an attack is impossible in principle.

      I don’t know how it is now, but at the beginning of the 2000’s through the northern strategic direction, up to 80% of STS states across the country was expected. Including strategic KR. Therefore, the Monchegorsk regiment at MIG-31 protected our bases from attacks by the Kyrgyz Republic. The task is to destroy the tomahawks before they reach the correction sites. Now, with the advent of GPS, this is extremely difficult to do.
      1. Avenger711
        Avenger711 8 July 2013 18: 33 New
        0
        What is easier to solve, the task of delivering millions of people to the theater of war, or the task of protecting only from aviation and submarines? Although in itself the appearance of dozens of bombers on the radar is already an occasion to press the red button, and thank God in history this still carried through, although there were incidents.
      2. Rus2012
        Rus2012 8 July 2013 20: 10 New
        0
        Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
        Now, with the advent of GPS, this is extremely difficult to do.

        ... What?
        Fill up satellites ... or even easier - the main control point. The main thing is on time!
        1. Boa kaa
          Boa kaa 8 July 2013 22: 55 New
          +1
          Quote: Rus2012
          Fill up satellites ... or even easier - the main control point. The main thing is on time!

          If we attack, it is logical. But this is also logical for them: the destruction (incapacitation) of the AES group is the first sign of preparation for aggression. Additional forces are raised, reconnaissance is strengthened, the duty forces are transferred to immediate (or in the "military danger") readiness, nuclear warheads are delivered to the carriers, partially (depending on the situation) docked, etc. So satellites-r and other means and forces of reconnaissance will be destroyed for "Ch-0,1", and maybe later, minutes before the launch of the CD and the rise of nuclear weapons carriers. Force control frequencies are suppressed, all communications are disrupted by all sorts of means ...
          These are elements of computer simulation, which is not very far from the real scenario. Now imagine the state of the bowl. General CKP.
          1. Rus2012
            Rus2012 8 July 2013 23: 48 New
            +1
            Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
            Now imagine the state of the bowl. General CKP.

            Well, first of all, Comrade General is not alone in the CCP. Not that one will bring feelings to another ... Everything is duplicated and tripled there, to be spock - nothing depends on one person ...
    2. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 56 New
      0
      You learn from comrades from sunny Israel how 12 jeeps with anti-tank missiles Tou did not matter.
      And about the impossibility of using deserts for attack - ice deserts and icy seas do not interfere with aircraft carriers of the Kyrgyz Republic - at the height of their usual flight there is always about -30 centigrade in any region of the world. Even at the equator.
  12. Avenger711
    Avenger711 8 July 2013 09: 30 New
    +3
    One of the main reasons for the escalation of the conflict and its development into a grueling guerrilla war was the fact that the army did not have weapons capable of inflicting a targeted, targeted effect on the enemy. The army, prepared for large-scale combat operations, was forced to work "across areas" - using multiple launch rocket systems, heavy artillery, and long-range aviation. All this led to high losses among the civilian population and the rapid growth of supporters of the armed opposition.

    By the middle of the 80-ies, a paradoxical situation developed in Afghanistan: the most effective special forces were operating against the Mujahideen, using essentially the same tactics and the same armament as their opponent. There was only one difference - behind our troops was a huge country with a powerful military industrial complex and military science, which, as it turned out, could not foresee and adequately respond to the Afghan challenge. We encountered similar problems later in the North Caucasus.


    Bullshit, the presence of guided weapons, which, incidentally, existed in the USSR and was used in Afghanistan, does not have any effect when they smile at you in the village during the day and take out a machine gun at night.

    The actions of special forces begin only when the army drove partisans into the mountains with hundreds of barrels and aircraft, while the number of the limited contingent was really limited. In ancient times, such issues were simply resolved, the rebellious population was cut out and that’s all, it’s good for men to go to the mountains if all the rest remain in easily accessible places. The Stalinist relocation worked similarly.
    1. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 57 New
      0
      You smack nonsense.
      Have you studied at least one charter in your life? On the belly in the mud.
      Or just troll?
  13. Aeneas
    Aeneas 8 July 2013 09: 39 New
    +1
    war in the Arctic is the least possible scenario, I would even say fantastic. The Arctic front, at best, may be a secondary theater of the Great War. But they began to actively discuss this scenario, and even returned to the idea of ​​completing a floating nuclear power plant. Budgets must be mastered.
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 8 July 2013 16: 55 New
      +3
      Quote: Aeneas
      war in the Arctic is the least possible scenario, I would even say fantastic.

      Where are the main oil producing regions? What will the country do in 3 of the month when the strategic fuel and lubricants reserves run out? No one says that battles like Stalingrad will unfold there. Not even a solid front line. Maneuvering groups will operate, most likely in helicopters, with the goal of disrupting hydrocarbon production. Defense will be object with elements of ambushes and secrets. For these purposes, even a special BMD is created. The box showed. It seems to me so.
    2. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 19: 59 New
      +1
      In general, the polar route of attack on the USSR has always been the main one in mattress.
      From there, the KR carrier aircraft fly closer.
      And the temperature at the height of their usual flight and launch of the KR is always -30.
      Even over Equatorial Africa.
    3. kavkaz8888
      kavkaz8888 9 July 2013 00: 38 New
      0
      Our North Should be covered so that even the thoughts of no one would have popped there.
  14. Per se.
    Per se. 8 July 2013 10: 11 New
    +1
    When listing the scenarios, it would be useful to represent the countries that fit these scenarios. Scenario 1, will only a war with the United States be a war with an adversary "at a higher technological level"? There is still not separately taken Italy or England, but the European Union with NATO, a direct military appendage to America, without which the new "Blitzkrieg" mattress makers are not planning. China, our friend? The PLA is rapidly pumping its military muscles, when mobilized, it can put 60 million soldiers under arms, on our very empty borders. A little time will pass, and China, which does not hide its global ambitions for hegemony, will throw off its crafty mask of friendship with Russia, which it has squeezed out by technology. Who will remain our opponent on stage 2? You have to understand that this is no longer a NATO member state, but with nuclear weapons, if not China, which is turning into a superpower, then there are countries like Pakistan and Iran. The most important thing is that scenario # 1 will not begin without creating a crisis in Russia, unleashing local wars in our country or on our borders, without the moral decay of our people and the coming to power of those who can surrender to the United States and its lackeys. And there is no need to boast about "our crowbar" against "their computer", this bravado can turn out to be too expensive for our people, the enemy is not a dunkoff, as it might be desirable.
    1. Avenger711
      Avenger711 8 July 2013 12: 54 New
      +1
      China can expose 60 million people only for the entire long-term war, however a serious war with China, which is imposed on all sides, is unlikely. Empty borders is ridiculous, as if in the USSR there were tens of millions of people.
      1. Per se.
        Per se. 8 July 2013 13: 23 New
        +1
        Quote: Avenger711
        Empty borders are ridiculous, as if in the USSR there were tens of millions of people.
        Personally, it’s not funny for me, under the Soviet Union there were troops there, a defense line was present, and our population did not die out like that.
      2. dustycat
        dustycat 8 July 2013 20: 01 New
        0
        Well, maybe the population there has always been a bit.
        But the arsenals and military camps and bases have become much smaller.
  15. Wedmak
    Wedmak 8 July 2013 10: 38 New
    +1
    Scenario 1: Contactless war with the enemy, who is at a higher technological level

    To realize this level as a threat, you need to come to our territory or be in close proximity. Now we have the opportunity to prevent the first and warn the second. And we can inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy at any time, while the question of political consequences is not here.
    2 Scenario: Contact war with an adversary that is on a technological level equal to us

    When was the last time Americans met an adversary of an equal technological level? They had a higher technological level in Vietnam and that ... they left, having received a scruff of the neck. And given the latest news of the actions of the US Army ... in general, is also not an option.
    3 Scenario: Local Wars

    I hope our commanders have learned from mistakes in Chechnya and Georgia. An increase in the frequency of exercises allows us to hope that in a local conflict, victory will be ours. However, the US has also achieved certain "successes" in this scenario. Basically, in the form of inflating a local conflict of a global war.
    The 4 Scenario: Countering Terrorism, Including State

    The struggle is not equal, long, for the most part meaningless. The foundation for terrorism must be eradicated, not its consequences.
    5 Scenario: Arctic Contest

    In here, nothing is clear at all. The Arctic countries are preparing "polar" troops, the division of resources is not far off, and how it goes - peacefully or by war, will depend on a lot.
  16. Sochi
    Sochi 8 July 2013 11: 12 New
    +2
    Five scenarios ... there is a sixth - the oligarchs will sell us.
    1. Wedmak
      Wedmak 8 July 2013 11: 24 New
      +2
      Five scenarios ... there is a sixth - the oligarchs will sell us.

      Already tried. In 90 and 00 they sold everything that was possible and impossible. But even here a scythe on a stone found. Now this will not work.
      1. Sochi
        Sochi 8 July 2013 11: 44 New
        -1
        Our resources are being sold - ore deposits, forests, etc. ... What will we protect? According to the rules of the WTO, we are obliged to open free access of foreign companies to our resources ...
        1. Wedmak
          Wedmak 8 July 2013 11: 54 New
          0
          According to the rules of the WTO, we are obliged to open free access of foreign companies to our resources ...

          Come and take what? Where are these rules? Access is given, but far from free, but on a market basis - joint development, development, etc.
          1. Sochi
            Sochi 8 July 2013 12: 26 New
            -3
            What is the difference? if their companies have more than 50 percent of the shares ... about diamonds -http: //www.rbcdaily.ru/industry/562949979073044
            1. Wedmak
              Wedmak 8 July 2013 12: 34 New
              0
              Something I did not see at this link the words "here's a deposit - develop". And I didn't find anything about more than 50% of the shares ... the right to develop Place of Birth. And who gives this right? Ministry of Industry and Energy, right? And for this it receives a certain percentage of profit. So, roughly speaking, it’s not about selling a piece of land with a deposit, but about the right to develop it. And this is a big investment in our country.
              1. Sochi
                Sochi 8 July 2013 13: 05 New
                -1
                So the WTO rules have not yet entered into full force ... Our leaders got in so that they were empty, in such bondage that we are unlikely to pull it out. And yes, cons on emotions? Read the analysts, it will be scary.
                1. Wedmak
                  Wedmak 8 July 2013 13: 12 New
                  0
                  So the WTO rules have not yet entered into full force ... Our leaders got in so that they were empty, in such bondage that we are unlikely to pull it out.

                  I think we will stretch.
                  And yes, cons on emotions?

                  Cons are not mine. I bet only in exceptional cases.
                  Read the analysts, it will be scary.

                  There are many analysts, one contradicts the other.
        2. Boa kaa
          Boa kaa 8 July 2013 17: 07 New
          +2
          Quote: Sochi
          According to the rules of the WTO, we are obliged to open free access of foreign companies to our resources ...

          Hopefully not like Gaidar, Nemtsov, Chubais and K * under a production sharing agreement on Sakhalin. And the conditions can be set such that they will spend 10% of the profit in the Russian Federation. The main thing is not to make mistakes of the past. And the calculation should be carried out after the "shipment" of the product.
  17. runway
    runway 8 July 2013 11: 56 New
    +2
    War, political, economic, informational, intelligence, etc. etc. never stopped. Every factory we have closed, every destroyed village is the result of our abandoning our previously occupied positions. Is Russia "going" to make a leap forward? - highly doubtful. There are no objective grounds for such a statement. And the "options" described in this article look very cheap. If this is all that our leaders are capable of, then any changes from their scenario will be for us a SUDDEN ATTACK OF THE ENEMY.
  18. Dimy4
    Dimy4 8 July 2013 12: 07 New
    +1
    The United States has not fought an equal adversary since World War II. In all subsequent conflicts with their direct participation, the enemy simply must be an order of magnitude lower in all respects, otherwise defeat is possible (for example, Vietnam, which was helped by our country), and this is a blow to the reputation of the "most invincible". Therefore, the Pentagon has to play with toys, showing that he is highly developed and invincible, there is no way to check.

    Threat. You can also use cheat codes in toys laughing
    1. Sochi
      Sochi 8 July 2013 12: 33 New
      +2
      The states have not fought a single war even half as weakly ... They fought against those who have weapons from the middle of the last century, and the results are not very good, more and more PR. Therefore, many believe. The more complex the technique, the more vulnerable and expensive it is. At one time, our officers said that the Third World War would end in battles on stone axes ...
      1. Wedmak
        Wedmak 8 July 2013 12: 37 New
        +2
        At one time, our officers said that the Third World War would end in battles on stone axes ...

        Everyone said that. With one correction - if there is anyone else to fight. And if you want.
    2. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 20: 03 New
      0
      Threat and even in games there is a God mode ... bully
  19. mr.Evil
    mr.Evil 8 July 2013 12: 42 New
    0
    I don’t imagine something, that 4000 volleys will go unnoticed by Russia.
    1. Nitup
      Nitup 8 July 2013 13: 04 New
      +1
      Well notice, so what? Immediately launch nuclear missiles in the United States?
      1. Wedmak
        Wedmak 8 July 2013 13: 07 New
        +1
        Destroying launchers with their carriers is the first thing to do. By what means - it doesn’t matter. What will the aggressor do? Yelling to the whole world that peaceful PUs drowned him when he peacefully released them at us, with the aim of delivering mail?
        1. Nitup
          Nitup 8 July 2013 13: 30 New
          +2
          Well, it’s about this that we need to prepare for such threats and be able to destroy long-range naval carriers of the WTO, both air and ground, and enemy missile defense facilities, and space carriers of weapons and satellites.
      2. mr.Evil
        mr.Evil 8 July 2013 13: 09 New
        +1
        I hope that yes.
      3. Rus2012
        Rus2012 8 July 2013 23: 40 New
        0
        Quote: Nitup
        Well notice, so what? Immediately launch nuclear missiles in the United States

        Yes!

        This is a variant of "counter" or "retaliatory counter strike", without any doubt ...
        You, dear, it seems that you didn’t serve in the army, you didn’t go to the database, therefore such irony comes. And for comrade veterans - it's like our father, do not hesitate!
        1. Nitup
          Nitup 9 July 2013 00: 24 New
          0
          There will certainly be a retaliatory or retaliatory strike if a nuclear strike is struck on us. I think that not stupid people work in the General Staff, since they do not exclude the possibility of a disarming strike against us with precision weapons.
  20. Andriasov
    Andriasov 8 July 2013 13: 15 New
    0
    some kind of pessimistic forecast ..
  21. Nitup
    Nitup 8 July 2013 13: 19 New
    +3
    The role of strategic nuclear forces in global deterrence will gradually decline. In light of the fact that the United States is actually launching weapons into space (the same X-37B drone), developing hypersonic means of destruction, moving its military infrastructure to our borders, the scenario of a disarming strike is not so unrealistic. Given, for example, that now for a significant part of the time their missile cruisers with unknown weapons on board spend in the Black Sea. After all, for something they do it all. And weapons in space, and the global missile defense system, etc. The worst thing to underestimate is the enemy. It must be understood that we will not respond to the strike with conventional high-precision weapons against the objects of our strategic nuclear forces by launching strategic nuclear missiles, as this will be followed by the same massive nuclear strike and complete mutual destruction. Therefore, we need to create a powerful aerospace defense system and cover Moscow and the strategic nuclear forces and missile defense systems, withdraw from the INF Treaty, and increase the number of carriers of high-precision non-nuclear long-range weapons in order to be able to deliver a massive non-nuclear strike on the territory of the United States.
    1. Wedmak
      Wedmak 8 July 2013 13: 28 New
      +1
      In light of the fact that the United States is actually launching weapons into space (the same X-37B drone)

      One experimental drone, this is not a weapon. Our Buran flew automatically, so the Yankees were late too.
      develop hypersonic means of destruction,

      Also prototypes, of which no weapons are currently available.
      pushing their military infrastructure to our borders

      Yes, here the pogans succeeded. Nothing, they are still liberal Europe comes around.
      the disarming strike scenario is not so unrealistic.

      The scenario is not that unrealistic, but theoretically possible. If there are, ready to erase half the world into dust, for the destruction of our country.
      The rest I support, you need to keep your ear in the wind!
      1. Nitup
        Nitup 8 July 2013 13: 47 New
        +2
        Quote: Wedmak
        One experimental drone, this is not a weapon. Our Buran flew automatically, so the Yankees were late too.

        Well, I’m not saying that they were the first to create a space drone. We created something, but where is it now?
        Quote: Wedmak
        Also prototypes, of which no weapons are currently available.

        Any kind of weapon once began with prototypes. You see, after all, these are all threat assessments for the future. We see where our rivals are moving and taking action. Just a calculation, nothing personal, as they say.
        1. dustycat
          dustycat 8 July 2013 20: 12 New
          0
          He died under the collapsed roof of the MICC.
          But besides him there are also Granites, Basalts, Tu 141.
          The question is whether anyone else will bring them to the starting position and press the start button.
  22. Black Colonel
    Black Colonel 8 July 2013 13: 50 New
    +1
    During the Korean War, a lieutenant came up with a soap-dish-sized device that informed the pilot that his aircraft was being irradiated with an enemy radio sight. Moreover, depending on the distance, the tone of the "buzzer" changed. (at that time there were no such sights on our MiG-15, there were only on the F-86 from amers).
    Here is an example of an asymmetric approach to solving a problem. (there was a documentary film on this topic "How the 3rd World War Was Averted" or something similar to this title).
    1. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 20: 14 New
      0
      And in that film, it was told how the generals hid it with this invention and how many pilots they lost during that time.
  23. Semurg
    Semurg 8 July 2013 15: 06 New
    +1
    Keep the gunpowder dry. The only Russian gunpowder suitable both against the USA-NATO and against China is the strategic nuclear forces, and after the closure of the Semipalatinsk test site it was not tested for 25 years and it is not a fact that after 5-10 years it will work even if it is used. And in other types of weapons and equipment and most importantly their number in Russia lags behind the US-NATO and China is only increasing. maybe Russia should revive the landfill on Novaya Zemlya and try out a couple of charges from old missiles in order to be sure of the strategic nuclear forces and opponents themselves to prevent the temptation to start a war. The remaining types of the Russian Armed Forces are suitable only for wars with the post-Soviet republics or partisan.
    1. dustycat
      dustycat 8 July 2013 20: 15 New
      0
      SJAS MASYAS work. And without testing. Physics is on their side.
      The question is whether they will decide to apply them "when the Motherland orders."
  24. Gorinich
    Gorinich 8 July 2013 15: 36 New
    +2
    The question is whether the United States is ready to start a war against Russia. There is an answer, they’re not just ready, but have long been leading. Ever since Yeltsin allowed American snipers to shoot demonstrators in Moscow, the United States sees Russia as a possible tidbit of profit. And the only question is, if it is economically beneficial for them, they will unleash any conflict (nuclear, chemical, bacteriological ...). While the costs are more profitable, but this is only for now ....
  25. Check
    Check 8 July 2013 16: 28 New
    +3
    "At the end of 2012, the Pentagon conducted a computer game, the results of which showed that as a result of a strike on a" large and highly developed country "with the use of 3500-4000 precision weapons within 6 hours, its infrastructure would be almost completely destroyed, and the state would lose its ability to resist. Obviously "
    only in life they can’t do a restart and it won’t work out, that Rogozin already speaks well about this, let him inform people that they need to work better and better, in order to protect their country, people, relatives and friends. it would be worse if he said that everything is nishtyak. well, the fact that we will sit back for 6 hours is certainly ridiculous.))
  26. DZ_98_B
    DZ_98_B 8 July 2013 19: 56 New
    0
    Nicagda Americans will not hit RUSSIA !!!! It is not profitable for them. The blasted territories will instantly be occupied by the Chinese. And they will not care about radioactive contamination. And you drive the American into the infected territory? no and never !!!! so for the general development at the 25th Congress of the CPSU Central Committee at one of the closed meetings such words were said. China is ready to lose 500000000000 people to conquer the Far East. therefore, BAM was built, therefore ZABVO is the strongest military circle; therefore, SDs were built along the Chinese border. it's 1975
  27. atalef
    atalef 8 July 2013 20: 07 New
    +1
    Quote: DZ_98_B
    China is ready to lose 500000000000 to conquer the Far East

    In general, there is so much on the whole Earth and it is not known whether it will ever be. belay
  28. Horla
    Horla 8 July 2013 20: 26 New
    0
    Enemies are not going to start hostilities immediately. They followed a well-defined plan. At first they tamed the political leadership of the country. Now they no longer make secrets that Gorbachev and after him and Yeltsin called the states almost every day and reported how much was in the country. closed, destroyed, disarmed units and formations. The latest military equipment was destroyed. Then it was the turn of the military-industrial complex and military science, as well as peaceful science. At the same time, so-called democratic values ​​were instilled into our people, which led to the flourishing of crime and the removal of honest people from power structures. A friend of mine, my father, a well-deserved veteran of the Great Patriotic War, cried and said that the country did not suffer such losses even in the war. Someone was punished? No !!! And the question with the army became acute when a number of states opened their mouths to our richest northern shelf and the threat of losing in the near future the world's largest feeding trough for our high leaders really loomed. Yes, and whether they give an order to strike force by the Strategic Missile Forces in the territories of countries where their families live quietly and peacefully, the stolen billions of dollars invested in the economies of these countries work ?!
    1. Nitup
      Nitup 8 July 2013 20: 41 New
      0
      Quote: Horla
      And will they give an order to strike by forces of the Strategic Missile Forces in the territories of countries where their families live quietly and peacefully?

      The families of Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov live in Russia. So do not worry, the order will be.
  29. DZ_98_B
    DZ_98_B 8 July 2013 20: 27 New
    0
    Quote: atalef
    Quote: DZ_98_B
    China is ready to lose 500000000 to conquer the Far East

    In general, there is so much on the whole Earth and it is not known whether it will ever be. belay
  30. DZ_98_B
    DZ_98_B 8 July 2013 20: 29 New
    0
    Sorry about the zeros wrong. Five hundred million Chinese.
  31. honest jew
    honest jew 8 July 2013 21: 45 New
    0
    Quote: dustycat
    I’m silent about the funny comic pointers. They only make tourists laugh.



    I fully agree with you!
  32. crambol
    crambol 8 July 2013 22: 24 New
    0
    Quote: Wedmak
    Yes, you need to be shot for sowing decadent moods as a representative of the fifth column!

    Something stole from Beria!
  33. Xnumx kopeek
    Xnumx kopeek 9 July 2013 02: 59 New
    -1
    Quote: HAUSER
    There is no limit to the creativity of thinking of the Russian person, and everyone knows about this very well. It has been said that the answer will be asymmetric. Here information slipped through about an autonomous stationary underwater missile "Skif". In fact, why put all your eggs in one basket (in this case, in a submarine), it is better to scatter them in different parts of the world's oceans. Cheap and cheerful.
    And then there is such a thing as sabotage war. A dozen 2, 3 kiloton bombs or mines, correctly placed, from New York will not leave a trace. (This is for example.)
    Two Chechen boys with a pressure cooker put half of America on their ears, and if something more serious happened, troops from around the world would have to withdraw it in order to curb chaos.
    -
    what wastefulness / NY / -
    - Enough thermal bombs / scream the tsunami / - and that’s all. simple and elegant. Hollywood!