Military Review

2014 year. The United States is leaving Afghanistan. What's next?

38



There have already been quite a few predictions about how the world geopolitical situation will develop after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. There is no doubt that this step will have a negative impact on the security of European states. Especially, the withdrawal of European military forces from Afghanistan could destabilize the situation in Central Asia and southern Russia, and also lead to the radicalization of the Muslim population of these countries. Unfortunately, at present, the level of relations between Russia and NATO sets aside much to be desired, so it is difficult to count on joint actions in the fight against Islamic radicalism and terrorism in this region.

The US leadership pretends not to remember the time when Russia, after the September 11 attacks, supported the Americans in overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan. It cannot be said that this was a concession of the Russian authorities to the pressure of the American side. These actions were in the strategic interests of Russia itself. After all, the Taliban were really a real external threat to Russia and controlled 95% of the territory of their country. The Taliban worked closely with the radical Muslims of the North Caucasus, Central Asia and the Muslim communities of Russia. Therefore, Russia supported the North Atlantic Alliance in their anti-terrorist Afghan operation: the Russian side provided intelligence and equipment to the NATO military contingent. Russia also convinced its Central Asian colleagues in the former union to provide bases for the Americans in their territories. These steps have greatly helped the alliance to overthrow the power of the Taliban. After the overthrow of the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan, Russia did not interfere in American policy pursued in Afghan territory. The Russian government even took another step towards the United States, expanded the northern supply channel for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Thus, creating an alternative path to the Pakistani channel through the Khyber Pass. It should be noted that 45 thousands of containers with cargo and about 400 thousands of servicemen passed through the Russian channel in support of operations in Afghanistan. In 2012, Russia provided NATO with another supply route for the Afghan group of the North Atlantic bloc - through the Volga region. To this end, NATO has opened a transit center in Ulyanovsk. And this is at a time when there are disagreements between the United States and Russia on a wide range of issues.

When the Taliban were in power in Afghanistan, they provided their military training centers for Chechen militants and Islamists from Central Asia. Those were not indebted to the "teachers" - they fought on their side against the NATO forces. But now these trained fighters penetrate back to their homeland, but with weapons and ammunition. It is possible that they will use their skills and abilities to make their countries an arena of struggle.

For example, a previously unknown Uzbek group of the Islamic movement (IMU) suddenly became active and gaining strength. At present, this group is professionally preparing for long-term military actions on the territory of Central Asia. Its first goal may be the overthrow of the current president, who for a long time did not allow the opposition to raise its head in the country. Another goal could be the leader of Tajikistan, Emomali Rakhmon, who with the help of Russian troops in 90-s suppressed the Islamists in the state.

Unfortunately, Islamist threats concern not only Central Asia. Radical Islam is actively spreading on the territory of Russia itself. For example, in previously peaceful Islamic communities living on the banks of the Russian river - the Volga.

Thus, members of the Hizb ut-Tahrir Islamist movement, practically expelled by the authorities of the former Soviet Central Asian republics, began to gather in the lower reaches of the Volga. And although in 2003, by the decision of the Supreme Court of Russia, this organization was recognized as terrorist, its activity continued with the same activity. The killings of Muslim spiritual leaders in Tatarstan became the victims of Islamic terror. In addition, in October 2012, the FSB forces of Russia prevented a terrorist act in the capital of Tatarstan.

I did not want the Volga region to repeat the fate of Dagestan. Dagestan after the introduction of a ban on extremist activity swept a wave of violence. Currently, Dagestan is considered the most dangerous place in the entire North Caucasus.

Islamists are not accidentally settled in the Volga region. About 40% of Muslims live in this Russian district, there is a huge stock of oil and gas (13 and 12 percent, respectively, of the total Russian volume), 96% of potassium reserves, 60% of phosphorus deposits and 16% of copper reserves. The Volga region has the highest industrial production in the country (24%), about 16% of all Russian investments are invested in this region. Numerous oil pipelines and 5 gas pipelines pass through the territory of this district. The region is bordered by Kazakhstan, which makes it even a gateway to Central Asia. All these factors greatly affect the economic and political situation not only of this region, but of the whole country.

And although it is considered stable and much calmer than the Caucasus region, the Russian special services and special forces in 2010 conducted a series of operations against terrorists in the Nurlatsky region (Tatarstan) and in the Arkhangelsk region (Bashkortostan). A native of Ingushetia, who created the Islamic underground in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, was arrested. On account of this thugs numerous sabotage, including on the gas pipeline in Birsk area (Bashkortostan).

Russia continues to fight terrorists in the North Caucasus. He tries to control the situation in the Volga region, where radical Islam can at any moment destabilize the situation in the region and appear before the world community as the victorious revolutionary force. It is no secret that the Russian and Central Asian Islamists derive their strength from the victories of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The inability of the armed forces of the Central Asian countries to restrain the aggressive actions of Islamist movements supported by the Taliban makes Russia strategically vulnerable.

The Russian authorities understand that the failure of the NATO mission in Afghanistan can have very serious consequences for the country. Russia needs to prepare to live without an American cover from the actions of the Afghan Taliban. But it seems that Russian politicians and military in this matter are in a state of confusion and mutual misunderstanding.

Thus, at present, the Russian side is considering the possibility of covering the Tajik-Afghan border with Russian border guards. This was announced by the Russian Ambassador in Kabul A. Avetisyan. But, the opinion of the government official did not coincide with the position of the CSTO Secretary General N. Bordyuzha. Former head of the border service of the Russian Federation, Bordyuzha believes that there is no need to deploy the Russian military contingent on the border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Bordyuzha proposes to consider this issue only in terms of technical, methodological assistance, as well as personnel training of Tajik border guards. That is, leaving, almost without the support of poorly trained local border guards on the most difficult part of the Afghan-Central Asian border. Bordyuzha is confident that they will be able to prevent well-trained, armed and experienced radical Islamists from entering the territory of Russia. It is strange to hear from an experienced military. Moreover, Bordyuzha himself considers the main task of the CSTO to be to minimize the possible threat to the border areas after the withdrawal of the North Atlantic bloc from Afghanistan.

Note that eight years ago, the Russian border guards left the Afghan-Tajik border, giving way to local border guards and leaving behind only the task force consisting of several dozen officers. But now the situation near the Afghan border has deteriorated significantly. The Tajik-Afghan border has become the main transit point and channel for the entry of hard drugs into Russia and Europe (opium, heroin). Over these eight years, the number of drug addicts in Russia has quadrupled. This was to be expected, since Afghanistan owns 90% of the global heroin production market. In eight years, deadly production in Afghanistan has quadrupled. Today there is practically no competent and reliable system of protection against drug trafficking. And after NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and Russia’s failure to take adequate measures to protect it, Afghanistan will become a zone of instability, uncontrolled drug trafficking, cross-border crime and uncontrolled migration.

According to experts, the strengthening of the Tajik-Afghan border by Russian border guards is only the first step in protecting Russia's interests.

For example, experienced border guards with experience in Tajikistan believe that technical and methodological assistance to Tajik border guards is not enough to improve the situation. After all, the Tajik border guards do not have the necessary level of professionalism, have poor performing discipline and receive a small (by the standards of Tajikistan) monetary allowance. So, in this situation, the constant increase in drug trafficking across the Tajik-Afghan border is a completely expected phenomenon. Russian military experts reasonably believe that during negotiations with the leadership of Tajikistan on the return of Russian border guards to the Tajik-Afghan border, it is necessary to ensure that the frontier posts are under the jurisdiction of the FSB of Russia. Military expert Eduard Rodyukov believes that on the basis of the Russian military unit and the CSTO collective rapid reaction forces should be created maneuverable groups that will support the border guards, as was the case in the 90s of the last century. Then, the actions of the military contingent, consisting of military units of Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, were recognized as successful.

But any plans should be coordinated with the leadership of Tajikistan, and, for today, E. Rakhmon actively began to pursue an anti-Russian policy: ratification of the agreement on the Russian military base in Tajikistan was frozen, broadcasting of the Zvezda TV channel was prohibited, the media constantly publish anti-Russian materials, etc. .

But there is still hope for reaching agreements on the return of Russian border guards to the border. After all, the anti-Russian policy of Rakhmon could lead to the intensification of domestic Muslim extremism, the catalyst of which would be Afghanistan.

It also draws attention to the fact that the Americans are in no hurry to leave the Central Asian bases provided to them for temporary use. It is possible that they will settle there on a permanent basis and will survive Russia from this region. Analysts say that for Russia the threat from the American military is real enough. Over the years they have been in Asia, Americans have learned how to solve their problems with someone else’s hands. And it is absolutely not fantastic that they will be able to organize a strike by the rebel forces from the internationalist scum on the Russian Tyumen oil and gas complex. A similar scenario worked out by them in Syria. NATO has long had plans to seize with the use of mercenaries in Western Siberia, the Volga region and the Urals. NATO strategists have long learned how to pretreat the territory planned for seizure with huge supplies of drugs, as well as financial and quasi-biological weapons.

In addition, the preservation of US military bases near Russian territory will allow NATO, in the event of an open confrontation, to inflict, almost unrequited, missile and aviation attacks on Russian cities.

While Russian politicians were engaged in boltology over the expansion of NATO to the east, NATO had already settled in Central Asia and Kazakhstan, and, therefore, prepared a blow to the Russian borders from the south and from the side.

It only seems that the Americans are leaving the Asian region leaving Afghanistan. They managed to convince the whole world that they were fighting the world's evil - the Taliban. At that time, according to analysts, they worked out and created a system of instant mobilization and concentration of militants of all stripes with their Islamic networks, including in the territory of the Russian Federation, to perform specific tasks in the interests of the United States and NATO.

Thus, it seems that the Russian authorities, perhaps, underestimate the increase in the level of danger for the Russian statehood associated with the withdrawal of NATO members from Afghanistan. But, the question of the return of Russian border guards to the Tajik-Afghan border, of course, will be one of the steps that increase Russia's chance to survive in this complex geopolitical situation.

Materials used:
http://www.km.ru/world/2013/05/20/mirovaya-ekspansiya-ssha/711114-rossiya-mozhet-vernutsya-na-granitsu-s-afganistanom
http://www.inoforum.ru/inostrannaya_pressa/chto_na_konu_u_rossii_v_afganistane/
http://www.narkotiki.ru/news_51507.html
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  1. waisson
    waisson 3 June 2013 08: 16 New
    +3
    they contributed to the conquest of Afghanistan. who is the next one wishing to conquer the local aborigines
    1. Guun
      Guun 3 June 2013 10: 59 New
      +1
      Yes, I think that there will probably not be anyone who wants weapons. It’s not cheap, and you can conquer a person with money, the whole question is in price. It is highly likely that the Taliban will make friends with China - weapons are supplied from there.
      1. Phantom Revolution
        Phantom Revolution 3 June 2013 16: 34 New
        +2
        Quote: Guun
        Yes, I think that there will probably not be anyone who wants weapons. It’s not cheap, and you can conquer a person with money, the whole question is in price. It is highly likely that the Taliban will make friends with China - weapons are supplied from there.

        How to say, if it weren’t for the genocide of the peoples to be shameful, then there would have long been applied the tactics of scorched earth and the destruction of all without exception, then there would be no Taliban left. But I agree not to hold them in one stamina. But do not make them super soldiers.
      2. Geisenberg
        Geisenberg 3 June 2013 23: 59 New
        0
        Quote: Guun
        Yes, I think that there probably will not be anyone who wants weapons. It’s not cheap, and you can conquer a person with money, the whole question is in price.


        True for the Arabs - you can’t buy, just rent, not for long. It is true for Afghans - it is not for sale, the warend is not for rent, not even for long. The next one who goes there will leave as well as all the foregoing - not salty slurping.
  2. Masterzserg
    Masterzserg 3 June 2013 08: 18 New
    +3
    2014 year. The United States is leaving Afghanistan. What's next? - Iran, probably. New weapons await testing. And democracy, too, is already breaking into new countries hi
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 3 June 2013 08: 39 New
      +9
      After the Americans leave, the situation in Afghanistan will worsen even further. Karzai now controls only Kabul and its environs. The Afghans themselves must understand the situation. One thing is certain: nobody can stabilize Afghanistan OUTSIDE. The British, the USSR, and NATO could not. If there is no other intervention, the Afghans themselves will quickly find a common language. At the very least, they lived in stability until 1978 of the year...
      1. Phantom Revolution
        Phantom Revolution 3 June 2013 16: 40 New
        0


        I have other news. Who else but the United States will control drug trafficking?
        Add service personnel and private firms to the article, the figure will grow 2-3 times.


        The United States plans to leave nine military bases in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country at the end of 2014, the Associated Press reports citing a statement by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

        According to Karzai, the Afghan authorities do not object to the plans of the United States if the country will be provided with economic guarantees and cooperation in the field of security. Karzai's statement was the first result of non-public negotiations between the United States and Afghanistan on cooperation between the countries after the 2014 year. Negotiations were complicated by disagreements over the transfer of detainees and claims by the Afghan side to the behavior of the US military.

        "Our requirement is that they [the US] ensure security, and quickly, and strengthen the Afghan armed forces and economy. When this is done, we will conclude an agreement [on partnership]," Karzai said. He noted that we are talking about bases in Kabul, Mazar al-Sharif, Jalalabad, Gardez, in the provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Herat and the Bagram airfield.

        Meanwhile, an AP source in Washington was unable to confirm information about nine US military bases in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the international contingent. According to the agency’s interlocutor, the concept of a cooperation agreement between the United States and Afghanistan is based on the right of the US military to temporary access to bases in Afghanistan, and not on a permanent presence in the country.

        The international contingent in Afghanistan is more than one hundred thousand people. It is expected that by the end of the 2014 year the entire contingent will be withdrawn, but the US insists that up to 12 thousands of military personnel should remain in the country who could train their Afghan colleagues and continue counter-terrorism operations against Al-Qaeda militants operating in Afghanistan and others extremist forces.
        1. Thunderbolt
          Thunderbolt 3 June 2013 19: 58 New
          0
          Quote: xetai9977
          The Afghans themselves must understand the situation. One thing is certain: no one OUTSIDE can stabilize Afghanistan.
          И будет ЭТО называться Талибистан.И первой с кем заключит "дипотношения" будет Аль-Каида.Не понимаю,что вы в таком случае понимаете под словом СТАБИЛИЗАЦИЯ
          1. xetai9977
            xetai9977 4 June 2013 08: 34 New
            0
            Stabilization is when people stop killing each other because of politics, it’s chaos and devastation. Did the great powers try to establish order in their own way - and then what? .... Afghans themselves should be sorted out, and not foreigners, whose first plan their interests, not the interests of the Afghans.
  3. Kadet_KRAK
    Kadet_KRAK 3 June 2013 08: 45 New
    +1
    1. Afghanistan - the tomb of empires.
    2. "США уходят из Афганистана. Что дальше?" см. пункт №1.
    1. Scoun
      Scoun 3 June 2013 10: 29 New
      +1
      Quote: Kadet_KRAK
      "США уходят из Афганистана. Что дальше?" см. пункт

      See point 1. Kyrgyzstan, 2. Tajikistan, 3. Uzbekistan (+ NPO).
    2. Pimply
      Pimply 3 June 2013 15: 30 New
      +1
      What a grave there. There the whole question is that Afghanistan is a bunch with Pakistan. Nothing will be intelligible while the guys from the Taliban are supported by the guys from Pakistan. They have their own opinions on this issue.
      1. Che
        Che 5 June 2013 19: 34 New
        0
        It only seems that the Americans are leaving the Asian region leaving Afghanistan. They managed to convince the whole world that they were fighting the world's evil - the Taliban. At that time, according to analysts, they worked out and created a system of instant mobilization and concentration of militants of all stripes with their Islamic networks, including in the territory of the Russian Federation, to perform specific tasks in the interests of the United States and NATO.

        This says it all, as planned from the very beginning.
  4. omsbon
    omsbon 3 June 2013 08: 46 New
    +1
    In addition, the preservation of US military bases near the territory of Russia will allow NATO, in the event of open confrontation, to deliver almost unanswered rocket and air strikes on Russian cities.

    In the event of an open confrontation, it is unlikely that we will respond to their bases, hit the cities!
  5. Turik
    Turik 3 June 2013 08: 52 New
    -3
    2014 year. The United States is leaving Afghanistan. What's next?


    Obviously a scribe.
  6. erased
    erased 3 June 2013 08: 56 New
    0
    The authorities are busy dividing and grabbing what they write on the site. And ordinary people will disentangle. As always.
  7. JonnyT
    JonnyT 3 June 2013 09: 21 New
    0
    The prospects are not bright. There is no doubt that after the departure of amers from Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda is activated. The fire of Islamism will spread throughout the region. The authorities of the states of Central Asia will not be able to keep the flow of terrorists without the support of Russia. And helping everyone is extremely difficult, plus the Americans will not completely leave the region, and their presence will interfere with our support in the destruction of terrorists. With their tacit consent, the terrorists will cut their heads and rob, and they will quietly throw weapons at them. And we will be asserted that they are in control of the situation and counteracting terrorists, but in reality everything will be exactly bearded. When all of Central Asia is burned by the fire of terror, the next target is Russia. The first wave will go mercenary terrorists, and then Nato will connect!
    In my opinion, under current politics, conflict is inevitable.
    1. ale-x
      ale-x 3 June 2013 10: 58 New
      +1
      Все правильно, за исключением одного: события в Средней Азии будут проходить успешнее если РФ будет отбиваться от всякой нечисти на своей территории и одновременно не сможет оказывать помощь "князькам" из южных республик. Да и в конце концов они легко согласятся (продадутся) с Американским предложениями, где ценой будут их жизни в обмен на видимую стабильность их царствия.
  8. bear
    bear 3 June 2013 09: 26 New
    +3
    It's a shame when bureaucrats of all stripes for 20 years gouged everything that was built several centuries by our ancestors. Well, not one way or another all this dirt will be cleaned.
  9. avt
    avt 3 June 2013 09: 56 New
    +3
    Какой уход !? Уходят оставляя базы ,кстати то ради чего ЮВ пробил в Политбюро ввод наших войск ,оставляют ,,ограниченный контингент советников " с дип паспортами как в Ираке и ЧВК .Ну и к чему повторять это разводилово про вывод амеров ? И кстати хочу напомнить ,когда мы ушли ,Наджиб держался два года вполне успешно ! Но сперва горбатый а затем и ельцин отказались ЗА ДЕНЬГИ поставлять ГСМ и ЗИП для имеющейся техники . Все ,духи пешком в Кабул зашли . Вот такая загогулина понимаш .
  10. Warrawar
    Warrawar 3 June 2013 10: 11 New
    0
    And then what? Further aggravation of the situation in Central Asia: the growth of extremism, terrorism, drug production, etc. And we have to disentangle!
    1. Guun
      Guun 3 June 2013 10: 56 New
      +7
      The Taliban is not an al Qaeda to you. The Taliban will come to power and calm down (the Uzbeks do not count, they have their own accounts with Karimov), many minerals have been found there - it is likely that either the Chinese or the Arabs will help raise the country. The majority in the Taliban are against drugs, the volume of drug trafficking increased only after the arrival of the United States by 69 times or more. To extinguish radicals like hibuts and howarids in the SA, in Kazakhstan we propagandize traditional Islam and the number of youth goes to the Hanafi mashab and this number is growing (I’m happy), I’m a Muslim of the Hanafi madhhab and I won’t allow my country to be flooded with parasites and set up a meat grinder here. In general, it is UNLIMITED youth that falls into their network, if you explain to the youth what the Islam of radicals is, you can reduce it by several times. But you can not let us into the zealots who powder the brains of youth.
      1. avt
        avt 3 June 2013 13: 19 New
        -1
        Quote: Guun
        The Taliban is not an al Qaeda to you. T

        Yeah, this is not a lezginka for you, but a twist laughing
        Quote: Guun
        Taliban will come to power and calm down

        Is it after they already went to Kyrgyzstan under Akayev and checked in with the Tajiks? When even the late Masuda was pressured, then it was true that our border guards were there and rested not childishly.
        1. Guun
          Guun 3 June 2013 15: 13 New
          +3
          Sadness. The Taliban movement includes different nationalities, there are few Kazakhs there (many Kazakhs migrated, the bulk went to China, the rest kept the path to the Middle East). The Uzbek jamaat will go to Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz to Kyrgyzstan, and so on. This is a small group, those who break away from the Movement. Believe me, there is far from there; they have nothing to war with the CSTO. Let me give you an example (God forbid we know this) - Hamza returned home after work, received a salary in the form of milk and a couple of honey cakes. He thinks the children will be happy, soon the fifth wife will give birth. But then he sees pillars of smoke in his native village, he runs. Paul aul is engulfed in fire, and understands that everything has already been destroyed, the family is gone - for which he lived, he was taken away (and of course Khamza will put on a suicide belt after that, because his purpose in life is to kill as many amers and their assistants as possible. Karzai will be executed - there is no doubt about it). More than half of the Taliban are just such people, plus the children who grew up in this chaos. There is very little volunteer from the CIS, mostly volunteers come from Arab countries getting there through Pakistan. In Central Asia (excluding Uzbekistan) we are only threatened by their influence.
          1. Thunderbolt
            Thunderbolt 3 June 2013 20: 38 New
            +1
            Хамза точно не пойдёт(если не погонят),тут я соглашусь.Но и против тренировочной базы террористов-интернационалистов рядом со своим кишлаком возражать громко не будет.Печаль в том,что кроме домоседа Хамзы там есть и такие у кого дома не стало,семьи нет.Этим на базу.А самое то главное,что за годы сопротивления международным силам Т. и А.-К научились сглаживать естественные противоречия между собой,идти на взаимный компромисс,даже осуществлять совместные террористические операции за рубежом(существуют даже "теневые кабинеты" в некоторых провинциях Афганистана куда входят как представители А.-К.,так и лидеры Т.)+ они имеют совместные "теневые" финансовые схемы и каналы.Ну и главное,почему всем будет "супер" от так называемой стабильности:конечная цель этих движений какая ?Правильно:Мир во всём мире!!!А такая идеология пострашней пуштунок и чёрных масочек будет.Потому что главенствует над всеми этими тёмными личностями.
  11. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 3 June 2013 10: 22 New
    0
    year 2014. The US is leaving Afghanistan. What's next? How what's next? Perestroika, a new mine and collapse.
  12. shamil
    shamil 3 June 2013 10: 30 New
    +4
    Yes! another headache for Russia now. parasites will crawl into the southern republics and Russia will have to strengthen its military presence in the former republics. Or maybe it’s amers specifically to add to Russia's problems? will still sponsor them
    1. ale-x
      ale-x 3 June 2013 10: 59 New
      0
      And no other way ..
  13. sanek45744
    sanek45744 3 June 2013 10: 50 New
    +5
    From everything I read, I understood that one needs to urgently close the border, only visas and eliminate all holes at the border! 1 an urgent and high-quality increase in the forces of special operations and special forces! 2 the same urgent development of both reconnaissance and attack without pilot aircraft! 3 adoption of the law what would our military be able to conduct military operations outside of our country
    1. Che
      Che 5 June 2013 19: 44 New
      0
      In my opinion, the law has already been adopted, even parts are being prepared, by the way very good.
  14. pinecone
    pinecone 3 June 2013 12: 20 New
    0
    The time will come, and it is entirely possible that in Central Asia, Chinese and Turkish troops will fight against the Taliban and their local supporters.
    1. Guun
      Guun 3 June 2013 15: 16 New
      +2
      China will agree with them, you will see (they learn from the mistakes of others). From the proposal to turn Afghanistan into a prosperous country, the population will support it - the Chinese are able to, and the Taliban are the majority of the population of Afghanistan. It would be great if peace finally reigns on this earth.
      1. avt
        avt 3 June 2013 16: 10 New
        +2
        Quote: Guun
        China will agree with them, you will see

        I won’t even argue, they in the Xinjian Uigur region clearly show how, without any sentiment and the right to religious toleration.
        1. Thunderbolt
          Thunderbolt 3 June 2013 22: 28 New
          0
          Если Китай законы шариата примет,то обязательно договорятся.Сам по себе Афганистан слаб,но является полем битвы и инструментом влиятельных внешних сил.Отполировали и заточили его американцы до блеска.А Бордюжа приуменьшая угрозу с юга говорит не как военный,а скорее как дипломат.Оно и понятно,ведь ОДКБ организация не только военная,но и политическая.И чтобы вести более менее конструктивный диалог с лидером "самой южной республики" -заглядывать в среднесрочную переспективу ---контрпродуктивно.
  15. dc120mm
    dc120mm 3 June 2013 13: 13 New
    +2
    The article is very interesting, plus.

    The dangers and threats that are said in the article are quite real.
    1. avt
      avt 3 June 2013 16: 14 New
      +1
      Quote: dc120mm
      The dangers and threats that are said in the article are quite real.

      Much more real if they were preparing in Afghanistan and catching them in the Caucasus, and then all the chances are closer to move and again the first chicks will appear in the Caucasus and Transcaucasia, and if there is a conflict, pale-faced and black-faced overseas friends will help.
  16. NOBODY EXCEPT US
    NOBODY EXCEPT US 3 June 2013 15: 58 New
    0
    The article is good .... not a lot of paint is exaggerated, but just not a lot, but the fact that it was clear to both ours and yours from the very beginning, you can certainly put pressure on Rakhmon through the hacksters, but here, too, the situation is twofold, he can turn in any direction, but it’s also impossible to continue financing Rakhmon through the hackers, a difficult situation, the error will be expensive .....
  17. APASUS
    APASUS 3 June 2013 18: 46 New
    0
    Most of all I like how the question is posed in this article.USA leaves Afghanistan
    Actually this is a planned escape !!!
    What goals did the Americans achieve in Afghanistan?
    Yes, almost none! The threat of terrorism from Afghanistan is not resolved! The Taliban are more alive than all the living! Even the power of Kabul does not extend to the entire territory of the country! I’m not saying that drug trafficking has increased by 40 times.
    Here is another people who can safely record for themselves in the defeated countries of the United States!
  18. Semyon Albertovich
    Semyon Albertovich 3 June 2013 20: 20 New
    +2
    If the states come, you cannot expel them; they will leave several large military bases by signing an enslaving treaty with the puppet government of Afghanistan (as was the case with Guantanamo Bay in Cuba).
  19. HAIFISCH
    HAIFISCH 3 June 2013 21: 56 New
    0
    Recently, it has only been heard that Islamism, LGBT, etc. Give a solution to all the problems in megatons am
  20. uzer 13
    uzer 13 3 June 2013 23: 39 New
    -2
    You just need to close the borders with all these former Soviet republics and introduce a visa regime with them. There will be no drug trafficking, there will be no Taliban and other radical Islamists. Not only has nothing been done, the train has also been organized on which heroin is imported into Russia by centners. And as for the fight against poppy plantations, in which there are never positive results, that’s also simple. Not with poppy seeds fight. and with those who grow it. The whole state is engaged in criminal business. The most time and force to apply.
  21. aszzz888
    aszzz888 4 June 2013 06: 47 New
    0
    The US leadership pretends not to remember the time when Russia, after the September 11 attacks, supported the Americans in overthrowing the Taliban in Afghanistan.


    Вот эта "национальная особенность" мерикатосов не помнить ДОБРА, и есть их паск.дная политика демократии и раздача мира по всей планете.
  22. shamil
    shamil 4 June 2013 07: 09 New
    0
    at the Americans, the economy could not stand keeping its contingent there and money ran out for Iraq. But what will they do with their armies. To the true, this is a relocation of forces around the world.
    But where do they concentrate them?