Provocation of the century: how the Persians dealt with the Jews
I am sure that the whole world is looking with interest at what happened in April there in the Middle East. The action that has begun to unfold cannot but strain many, because no matter which way you swing it, the result will be the same: an increase in oil and gas prices.
And the first who will not want this will be the United States. Well, they didn’t lift all the embargoes and sanctions from Iran just to impose them again. Washington sees Tehran very well as its spare gas station, especially now when God knows what’s going on in the Persian Gulf. And the Houthis clearly cannot be defeated; NATO ships, one after another, are leaving to lick their wounds and replenish the spent ammunition.
The fact that President Biden's administration lifted sanctions on Iran was an interesting move. Now the continuation: the United States will definitely rein in its somewhat presumptuous ally Israel.
With all due respect, and I respect Israel and its people for many reasons, but in reality, someone there, on the promised shores, went too far. Yes, in full. Undoubtedly, when Israel responded with blows after attacks from Gaza, it was normal. Sending planes and trying to sweep away those who are shelling peaceful cities is not discussed at all and is even encouraged.
However, this attack on an embassy town on the territory of a third country is too much on all counts, and those who condemned the actions of the Israeli army are clearly right and have a normal head, not an imitation.
As a result, people died in the Syrian Iranian embassy, buildings were destroyed, and it is difficult to say what Israel wanted to prove by destroying diplomats and the embassy complex.
The fact that in Iran “they will not forget, they will not forgive” - well, this is a country different from those where they love loud words, but not backed up by actions. There was no doubt that the Persian gentlemen would take revenge. The whole question is how...
What is clear is that the United States and Israel, or, if you prefer, Israel and the United States, possessed a very large amount of tactical information. And the intelligence agencies worked like hell, and the satellites in orbit probably overheated from the volumes of information collected and transmitted.
Today, many observers claim to have extremely accurate intelligence information about the impending attack. They knew everything: the start time, the list of targets and the weapons systems that would be used. Moreover, all this was known more than a day before the strike.
It's just a job well done. The question is how correctly this information was managed in Jerusalem.
Billion dollars
Outwardly, everything looked very impressive: US and Israeli Air Force planes were scrambled, Jordanian pilots were also doing something, air defense systems were put on alert... Here you need to understand that the bulk of those flying to Israel took off from Iranian territory, and this, Sorry, not Gaza, that’s an average of one and a half thousand kilometers. And these kilometers had to be flown under the gaze of radars on the ground and in the air.
And somewhere (mainly over Jordan) two forces met - missiles and Drones Iran and the power of the allied unit of Israel are comrades.
Everything that could fly took off and everything that could shoot shot. And already yesterday in the United States, many observers said that Israel could not shrug off 100% with one helmet, because only the brave American guys shot down about 70 Shaheeds and a dozen missiles. And this is not little.
In general, they already calculated that this night cost the allies a billion dollars. Everything is here, rockets, planes, pilots. Billion. The fact that Iran spent ten times, or even less, is clear and understandable, because here is the official list of what wanted to get to Israel.
What flew to Israel
1. UAV-kamikaze “Shahed-136”, the now famous device, capable of carrying 50 kg of charge over a distance of 2 km at a speed of about 000 km/h.
2. Emad ballistic missiles with a range of up to 1700 km, carrying a 750 kg warhead. "Emad" is another modification of the "Shahab-3" missile, which, in turn, came from the "Shahab-1" missile, an exact copy of the North Korean "Hwangsong-5", which, in turn, is our Soviet R-17 " Elbrus". It turned out to be an interesting chain.
3. Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile. 500 kg warhead at a distance of up to 1500 km. This missile is also interesting because it is produced and launched exclusively by the IRGC. Well, the fact that the IRGC would launch something from its arsenal was clear from the very beginning.
The rocket is interesting because at one time it was very closely copied from the Korean project BM25 “Musudan”. And the Korean missile, in turn, was just like a twin brother to the Makeev State Missile Center 4K10 (R-27) missile, which was withdrawn from service right before the collapse of the USSR.
And let them say that all seven missiles, passing like a knife through Israeli air defense, “hit the sand at the airbase.” We didn’t see that sand, unlike the rockets that actually arrived and exploded.
4. Paveh cruise missile. This is a 400-500 kg warhead that flies at a distance of up to 1650 km, the missile is subsonic, but “smart”, that is, it can change the target in flight, one of the missiles in a salvo can lead other missiles, exchanging data in flight... In general , yes, everything is like our X-55.
No, there are no complaints against us, it was our restless neighbors who quietly pushed the X-2001 from their reserves to the Iranians at low cost in 55. And they made “Sumar”, from which “Pavekh” appeared. So yes, the rocket is Soviet, but with a Ukrainian accent.
But in general it’s not bad, right? We can once again remember our great ancestors who created weapon, which puts the leading countries of the world on their ears, including in terms of weapons. If you had told someone in Israel a year ago that their “Iron Dome” would be covered in cracks from Soviet missiles from the 70s and 80s of the last century and plastic flyers with lawnmower motors, it would have been laughable...
And all this “splendor” was met over the territories of Jordan and Syria by the combined forces of the countries and destroyed. I think that everything that was at hand was used, hence the billion in the end.
Thanks to its high-tech anti-aircraft systems and advanced aircraft, Israel has managed to shoot down more than 90% of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles. More is not 100%.
How did it all look?
Iran launched three different types of missiles and one type of drone. A strange but organic selection: small and slow Shaheds, subsonic cruise missiles and ballistic missiles capable of developing hypersound at the final segment of the trajectory.
Israel and its allies activated all their surveillance and air defense radars, launched aircraft and put all air defense systems into combat mode. Next, air defense missiles and air-to-air missiles on airplanes were used.
These air defense systems, aircraft and radars remained on alert and then operated in combat mode for more than 6 hours, which is enough time to obtain a huge amount of data.
Let them say today that Iranian missiles did not lead to significant casualties and destruction, that Operation “Revenge” turned into Operation “Farce”, but one only has to think about how much unique information the intelligence of the Iranian army and the IRGC received in terms of information about Israeli missile defense facilities defense of various types.
And in addition to the Israeli defense system, the American system in the Middle East was also revealed. The United States very zealously went to the aid of its ally and thereby provided an opportunity to study where and how American forces would operate.
And now it is clear that the Americans will use Jordan and part of Syria to protect Israel. The one that is under US control, of course. But no one will yet prohibit Iran from using another part of Syria, areas under the control of the Kurds, for launches and launches.
In general, it was very useful for the Iranian military to learn the limits of the Israeli air defense systems and American aircraft and their ability to remain in the air. Based on this information, it is easy to draw a conclusion about the amount of time after which the effectiveness of air defense and aviation will begin to decline.
The Iranian attack in general became a very serious test of the Israeli air defense system precisely in terms of versatility, precisely because different weapons systems were launched. And, naturally, this was clearly calculated.
Overall, Iran would pay a very small price for such information. This is probably why Iran played such noble knights: condemn the attack on the embassy, otherwise we will respond. Won't you judge? We will answer! And in the end they answered.
There is no need to discuss the political component; it is clear that for some reason Israel can strike diplomatic missions on the territory of a third country, but Iran is not allowed to do anything. There will immediately be a wave of sanctions and everything else.
But here, those who need it clearly understand: Iranian steel can be bent to a certain limit. Practice has already shown that Iran is not alone, and for some reason rogue states are very good at cooperation, especially if they have something to cooperate with: drones, missiles, airplanes, and so on.
The main thing is not to outplay, not to overwhelm, because Iran, driven to the extreme, will easily be able to do what the Houthis have so far not been very successful in: completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the world’s oil flows.
This will be a very interesting move, because 50-70 km of the strait is a laugh for Iranian missiles, and how bravely NATO ships will get there, I myself would watch this comedy with great pleasure. They won’t try to repel army attacks at dagger distances - this is not for you to intercept homemade products.
And this is quite a scenario; in Iran, the ayatollahs will take such a step if there is a threat to national security (and the possible fall of the ruling regime). And then the world will not find it enough.
There was already a rehearsal, with a container ship that was captured by the Iranian military. He seems to be Israeli. But there is a prospect if everything gets stuck in the strait, both Israeli and someone else’s. If you close the Strait of Hormuz, oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and LNG from Qatar will be stuck. And not only an oil crisis will begin in the world, but also a gas crisis, which will first of all hit Europe and will hit it very seriously.
But this plan is still a long way off, because I am sure that everyone in Iran is happy with the results of the attack: not only the air defense/missile defense of Israel and its allies was exposed, but also tested for the possibility of confrontation as a whole.
Now in Iran they know exactly how many trains need to be sent, at what intervals, in what quantity. In the first attack, out of almost 300 missiles and drones launched, few reached the target. But it arrived. 20 or 30 is not important, the main thing is that we got there.
Next time Iran will send twice as many, and the Iron Domes and Patriots will be empty by the end of the third or fifth wave. And the planes will be on the ground, refueling tanks and hanging new missiles.
In the end, I would like to note to Mr. Netanyahu that there is still a difference between the Gaza Strip and Iran. And if Gaza can get away with it and remain “unnoticed” at the UN, then Iran is a little different.
Somehow, it sometimes turns out that such a seemingly daring and provocative cavalry raid on Israel can actually turn out to be a well-planned operation with far-reaching consequences.
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