Israel and Iran – show in the Middle East
"True Promise"
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami called the overnight strikes on Israel “successful.” Moreover, the Iranians initially expected a smaller effect. I wonder which one? To the total destruction of everyone drones, cruise and ballistic missiles are still approaching their targets?
Israel, in turn, reported the failure of Iran's Operation True Promise and the destruction of 99 percent of all ammunition in the air. On this, in fact, they parted ways - the Iranians announced the end of the action, and Israel opened its airspace. It was as if nothing had happened.
One could have ignored the event altogether if not for a few nuances.
Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami
First of all, Iran for the first time openly and directly attacked Israeli territory, and quite massively. Cruise and ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones flew.
This is not the first time the Jewish state has been hit by ballistic missiles. The Syrians became pioneers in 1973, when they launched 16 Luna-M missiles and even hit several times. For example, to the Ramat David airbase, where a local air force pilot died. But at that time Israel did not yet have nuclear weapons. weapons, and if it was present, then in completely symbolic quantities.
On April 14, 2024, the territory of the Jewish state came under attack not from Iran’s numerous proxies, but directly from the territory of the Islamic Republic. This actually happened for the first time in stories.
According to representatives of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, the target for missiles and drones became a certain information center directly involved in the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus a week ago. The second target was the Nevastim airbase with several fighter and military transport squadrons. aviation.
The scale of destruction at these facilities is still unclear, but given the density and quality of Israel’s air defense, one wave of missiles from Iran will not be enough. It took several days to process the IDF defenses - the number of interceptor missiles was finite.
From official Israeli sources it is known that “Iran hoped to disable the base and thus weaken our air capabilities, but it did not succeed. Israeli Air Force aircraft continue to take off and land at the base, carrying out offensive and defensive missions.”
The second important nuance is that wars do not start this way, as Iran tried to portray. Israel gave Tehran a loud slap in the face by attacking the Iranian diplomatic embassy in Damascus. The Iranian government has been preparing the Israelis and the world community for the “True Promise” for a long time and even a little boringly. You shouldn’t be surprised if the IRGC “accidentally” revealed the details of the operation to its opponents so that they had time to prepare better.
All these are acts of one big ritual show in which Israel and Iran are trying to save face. Otherwise, people in the Middle East will not understand and will no longer respect you. Jerusalem is taking revenge for the Gaza Strip, the Houthis and Hezbollah, and Tehran is taking revenge for the embassy in Damascus.
It’s worth asking the Hamas terrorists about how wars really start. In October last year, they carried out an exemplary and at the same time very secretive operation at the initial stage on Israeli territory. Insanely bloody, but extremely effective. And Iran barely had time to warn through all channels about an imminent attack.
At the same time, neither side of the conflict is ready for a real war. An exchange of missile strikes does not mean a real war, and fighting with ground forces is not easy.
The lack of common borders significantly limits freedom of maneuver, especially for the IDF. Israel must somehow make its way through Iraq just to reach the borders of Iran.
Let us repeat, a modern war cannot be considered complete if infantry units do not take part in it. Until the soldier's boot is firmly established in enemy territory, all rocket fire can be considered bloody, but childish.
For Iran, by the way, it is much easier - Syria, Iraq and Lebanon will be happy to allow the IRGC expeditionary force through their territory. But how much of it will remain in the end, given the current level of intelligence and information support for Israel from the United States?
What's next?
A missile strike on Israeli territory is, whatever one may say, a slap in the face to Jerusalem. Even though it was predicted and successfully repelled, it was still a slap in the face. You will have to answer, otherwise others will not understand. First of all, Saudi Arabia, which is still looking at events somewhat distantly.
What is now in the minds of IDF military leaders is hardly predictable, but the White House has already had its say. Biden really doesn't need war right now. He would be happy to nail down the Islamic Republic, but not now. Before the elections, becoming a sponsor of another hot spot with unclear prospects is like political suicide. Therefore, if the IDF’s watchdog is unleashed on Tehran, it will be only after November 2024.
Israel's response will be strictly symbolic. They will take several F-16s into the air and limit themselves to attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Maybe even on the territory of Syria or Iraq. Of course, there will be casualties, but even in this case, Tehran will not escalate.
But the chances of error for Jerusalem remain quite large. First of all, this is causing serious damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. This is where the very red lines lie, after which a new war in the Middle East will be inevitable.
Now it is much more important for Tehran to get a nuclear bomb and then start a war with Israel, and not vice versa. Once the nuclear factor is devalued by Israeli missiles and bombs, the IRGC will not be held back by anything.
There is a second potential Israeli mistake. This is the opening of a second front against Hezbollah in Lebanon. If we can’t reach the Iranians directly, then at least we’ll smear their proxies, which are literally nearby. Only the war in the north will be bloody and largely meaningless. Just like now in the Gaza Strip.
Iran has much more room for maneuver in this story. For example, supply the Houthis with their Shaheds and seal the Bab el-Mandeb Strait forever. For several months now, the coalition against Yemen has been unable to do anything about the Houthis’ predatory attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea. “Shaheds” will greatly increase the capabilities of the partisans, while at the same time making them almost invulnerable.
And there are no fewer such pain points for the collective West in the Middle East. But not only in this region.
An attack on Israel will once again have a bad impact on Ukraine. The White House has already called the IDF's response to the raid second to none, which sounds like praise and a promise of quick money. The point is a package of multi-billion dollar aid to Israel, which Democrats have been unable to push through Congress for several months.
61 billion for Ukraine are anchored to it. But the Kiev regime, in the eyes of the American establishment, has been considered a loser since last summer; the Yankees do not like such people and will not share money. Another thing is the Jews, who were able to “unsurpassedly” repel Iran’s carefully planned and coordinated retaliation. Washington has already voiced a proposal to coordinate funding for Israel as quickly as possible.
A few more of these raids and the IDF will run out of Iron Shield and Patriot missiles. We are not talking about Ukraine in this case, and in the event of a positive decision, Netanyahu will receive assistance without agreeing on billions for the Kyiv regime. If this happens, then the most elusive hopes for funding the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the pockets of American taxpayers will fall to dust.
And this is perhaps the most positive thing that can be learned from the show put on by Iran and Israel in the Middle East region.
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