Living with wolves means carrying a gun
According to leading Russian political scientists, after the Vilnius (2023) summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the leadership of the bloc made a final decision to divide the efforts of our “incredible” partners in two main areas of the struggle for dominance in the modern world. Two militant groups were formed, led from a single anti-Russian center, a shining city on a hill - “Fashington”. This is a coalition of the Anglo-Saxons (USA, UK, Australia) and their European NATO allies.
Two directions of US and NATO efforts. What's behind this?
It is obvious that the United States, in addition to supporting its NATO partners in their dances with tambourines around the Northern Military District and providing financial and military assistance to the Zelensky regime, decided to focus its main efforts on the Asia-Pacific region, where the PRC is rapidly gaining military power.
China, which has become the world's first economy in terms of GDP, has set its main goal to unify the country by annexing the Republic of China (Taiwan Island) to the PRC, as well as achieving nuclear parity with the United States by 2027.
The Celestial Empire, occupying a leading position in the world - economics, politics - and influencing the mindset of the people of the so-called countries. third world, increasingly claims to be a leading world power. The US ruling elites are well aware of this and are ready to take the most decisive actions to prevent the loss of their world leadership.
Therefore, by all indications, the “Thucydides trap” should work at the turn of 2027–2030. Analysts believe that the old and new leaders of the current world will compete in a decisive battle for world dominance. Today the United States is still stronger than China. But this advantage is quickly disappearing. Therefore, the Yankees are in a hurry to defeat the challenger before he gains the necessary military strength.
Economic sanctions and bans on the export of technology undoubtedly play a negative role, slowing down the development of a competitor, but they cannot radically solve the problem of leadership. The only option left is the military path. But to escape the Thucydides trap by military means, Washington needs a reason. This reason could be Chairman Xi’s attempts to join Fr. Taiwan to mainland China. The problem of unifying the two republics was also noted in the party documents of the last congress of the CPC as one of the main ones.
To counter Washington, China is strengthening its missile forces, navy and Aviation, conducts exercises in the Taiwan Strait and the adjacent waters, erects artificial artificial islands and installs air defense systems on them, builds airfields and deploys missile launchers.
– notes the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John Aquilino.
Over the past three years, the Chinese military has added more than 400 fighter jets and 20 warships to its arsenal and doubled its stock of missiles, the admiral said. In addition, Beijing has increased the number of military satellites by 50% and more than doubled its arsenal of nuclear warheads, he added.
Realizing the scale of the problem, the White House created the AUCUS bloc (Australia, Great Britain, USA) to combat China. Washington in every possible way encourages the militarization of Japan, the Philippines, and the Republic of Korea. On the territory of these countries, the Americans are modernizing their military facilities and stationing additional forces there.
The Pentagon plans to send six of its ten AMGs to the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, the United States is increasing the air defense of the main naval base of the Pacific fleet, located on the island. Guam, are carrying out other activities to strengthen the force grouping. That is, the United States is essentially carrying out systematic preparations for an armed confrontation with China in this region.
The White House is well aware that all their efforts to maintain hegemony will be in vain if Russia provides assistance to China. Therefore, Washington is convinced that Russia needed to be occupied with more important problems than helping China. The escalation of hostilities in Ukraine is perfect for this.
But no matter how strong the United States may be, even they are not able to conduct two large military campaigns at once. Therefore, Washington shifted the task of maintaining the degree of instability in Europe onto the shoulders of its European henchmen. And, most likely, this task was set by the Biden administration directly to the President of the Fifth Republic, E. Macron. And this fully explains the zeal of the French President in putting together various coalitions (tank, aviation, missile, sending troops to the Northern Military District zone) to support the Zelensky regime.
Why France?
For several reasons.
Firstly, France, after leaving Germany as the leading EU economy, is striving to take the place of European leader. An important fact is that France is a nuclear power seeking to create a Euro-NATO without the US and Britain.
Secondly, the White House and the Elysee Palace seriously believe that the Russians will not dare to use weapon, even in the case of sending French military contingents to the Northern Military District zone.
Thirdly, injured pride and resentment towards the Kremlin for the failure of French neocolonial policy in Africa are pushing Macron to take on a personal vendetta against Putin.
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It is obvious that the White House and its NATO partners will in every possible way delay the fighting in the Northern Military District zone, tying the hands of the Russian Federation with the war in Ukraine. There is only one goal - to exclude the active participation of our “volunteers” in the expected combat operations of the PLA with AUCUS in the Asia-Pacific zone. The Yankees themselves will escalate tensions and provoke the Celestial Empire into rash, premature actions even before it achieves nuclear parity with the United States.
And such an operation, according to the current White House administration, needs to be carried out before 2025–2027. Then it may be too late. Time pressure is looming on the horizon, and Washington is well aware of this.
Carthage must be destroyed!
But for now, the White House has apparently decided to weaken Beijing’s continental support as much as possible. The Yankees understand perfectly well that to wage a war against a nuclear superpower, a very large economic and military potential is needed. It is necessary to create a coalition of allies, prepare the armed forces, countries and populations for war, and conduct moral and psychological preparation of troops for the upcoming battle.
Also no less significant is the task of “dehumanizing” the enemy in the eyes of the international community. If all this is not done, then the result will be a military adventure not worthy of serious politicians. And our enemies have already done much of what they planned.
The implementation of Washington’s “Anaconda Loop” plan continues to surround the Russian Federation with a ring of hostile states, its economic isolation and the application of unprecedented sanctions aimed at strangling Russia with the subsequent dismemberment of its territory into raw material appendages. In recent years, Finland and Sweden have been admitted to NATO. Washington has already concluded an agreement with Helsinki on the military use of 15 military facilities in Finland.
Attempts continue to breathe new life into the concept of the Trojan horse, to activate the fifth column within the Russian Federation. Recently a congress of Russophobes took place in Berlin, which was attended by about 90 of our former citizens. These collaborators decided in all seriousness what they would do after the “collapse of Russia”, and what steps needed to be taken for this now. They even formed their own “Russian government in exile.”
The Western world is being drawn deeper and deeper into the arms race. And this process is intensely fueled by Washington. At the same time, threats against our country are constantly heard from NATO and EU functionaries. Programs are being adopted to rearm the national armed forces of NATO member countries. A striking example of this is the militaristic frenzy that has engulfed the military-political elite of Poland.
The EU leadership is seriously talking about creating a European analogue of NATO, but without the participation of the United States. According to Brussels, the basis of such an alliance will be the nuclear forces of France, and general-purpose forces will be represented by contingents of the national armed forces of European countries, with operational subordination to Brussels. France took up the formation of coalition troops to enter the territory of Ukraine.
Thus, we see the European elites heading towards military confrontation with our country. This, so to speak, is the political side of the problem of peace and war. But all these aspirations are expressed in concrete plans.
Everything that is conceived by the military-political leadership of the country in matters of war is reflected in the military doctrine of the state, in accordance with which the concept of the combat use of its armed forces is developed. The concept is materialized in operational and strategic plans. The most important of them are plans for a military campaign for a certain period, as well as plans for the first operations of the armed forces with the outbreak of hostilities (offensive or defensive).
Smooth was on paper
Let us briefly dwell on some aspects of the plans for conducting military operations against our country, which have become available to the press and electronic media. There were many such plans, and they still exist today.
Having carried out numerous studies and practical jokes during the command and control operation, Pentagon experts came to the conclusion that defeating the Russian Federation or the People's Republic of China in a modern war is possible only with the use of weapons of mass destruction in a surprise strike by the forces of the nuclear triad, which are on combat service and combat duty. In this case, it is necessary to disrupt the state control of the Armed Forces, as well as strike at enemy nuclear weapons carriers.
As a result, these searches resulted in the concept of Prompt Global Impact (GSU). The very idea of a global strike (a quick, high-precision strike by the US Armed Forces within 90 minutes) against particularly important enemy targets arose among Air Force specialists in 1996. They assumed that by 2025 the United States would have long-range conventional and gliding warheads of non-nuclear ballistic missiles, sea- and air-launched hypersonic missiles. Therefore, they inspiredly drew plans, graphs, diagrams, tables of interaction when delivering such a strike.
Option for applying MMN by NATO Air Forces to the Central Theater of Operations
At the same time, very strict criteria were set for defeating the opposing side. As a result of the BSU, 93% of nuclear weapons carriers, the system of state centralized management of strategic nuclear forces, armed forces, the economy and government structures of the country should be destroyed. Operators of the US Armed Forces' OKSh even determined the necessary outfit of forces to defeat them.
But it was still not possible to destroy all the planned strategic nuclear forces, state and military command and control facilities, early warning systems and other strategic facilities that determine the defense capability of the Russian Federation.
According to the forecast of Pentagon analysts, in a retaliatory strike, the US territory would be hit by at least 5% of the nuclear warheads that would remain with Russia after the BSU. Based on the results of the analysis, it was suggested that with the strengthening of missile defense, it is possible to reduce the number of nuclear warheads striking objects in the United States to a value of less than 1%.
But even this outcome did not suit Washington. Therefore, in the early 2000s, the US Department of Defense, in accordance with instructions from the White House, updated nuclear strike plans. And after President D. Bush (Jr.) came to power, plans for the construction of a national missile defense system were also revised. A project to create a layered missile defense system began to be considered, the key requirement for which was the ability to intercept ballistic missiles of any range in all sections of the trajectory. The creation of such a system contradicted the provisions of the ABM Treaty. But overseas they didn’t pay much attention to this.
Already in 2002, the global strike mission was included in the responsibility of the Unified Strategic Command (USC). In June 2002, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty. The United States has begun solving the problem of missile defense using new weapons systems and placing mobile missile defense lines on Navy ships to intercept launching Russian ICBMs in the active part of their trajectory.
Sea defense lines on the flight routes of Russian ICBMs launched from the European part of the Russian Federation
In 2004, an updated plan for waging a nuclear war was adopted - OPLAN-8044 - the main content of which was the delivery of a sudden “massive nuclear strike” (MNU) without additional deployment of strategic offensive weapons defined by START-3. This ensured the secrecy and efficiency of the strike preparation.
The targets for the MNU were ICBM silos, permanent deployment points (PPD) of the PGRK, naval force bases, air bases, nuclear warhead storage points, nuclear weapons complex enterprises, control and communications points.
Thus, for each silo launcher with ICBMs, 2 Mk21 warheads were assigned for ground blasting and one Mk5. For each point of permanent deployment of the PGRK, 2 Mk4A combat units are assigned for ground blasting. This makes it possible to destroy undispersed SPU, as well as administrative and technical buildings and structures. The defeat of naval force bases includes attacks on the infrastructure of SSBN bases, as well as the liquidation of facilities that could be used by fleets. To eliminate each object, several nuclear warheads may be assigned.
When planning strikes against military aviation targets, the minimum level was considered to be the destruction of SBA air bases. In the future, attacks were planned on other airfields, as well as targets related to the functioning of aviation. From 1 to 3 nuclear warheads were allocated for such facilities.
Objects of the class “nuclear warhead storage points” include “national level” storage bases. For each, given their high security, 8 nuclear warheads are assigned for ground detonation. This creates radioactive contamination of the area for a long time, excluding any activity on the territory of the facility, including rescue and evacuation work.
The list of “control and communication points” includes points of higher state and military control, elements of control systems for strategic nuclear forces and general-purpose forces, control and monitoring of space objects, as well as elements of a telecommunications system. Their main affected elements are radio transmitting, radio receiving and radar stations, antenna devices and other objects that have low resistance to the damaging factors of a nuclear explosion. In this regard, 1 nuclear warhead is assigned to destroy each target.
The number of “nuclear weapons complex enterprises” includes federal nuclear centers, plants for the production of nuclear warheads and their components, as well as plants for the production of nuclear materials. 1–5 nuclear warheads are assigned to such facilities.
In 2007, Washington adopted a doctrine according to which, in the event of a threat of attack on the United States, on American military installations or on its citizens abroad, the armed forces should be able to deliver a high-power and precision strike to any point on the globe within 60 minutes in order to neutralize such actions.
In accordance with this doctrine, the “Strategic Deterrence and Global Strike Plan” was developed in 2009. OPLAN-8010,” according to which up to 1 nuclear warheads were to be used during a massive nuclear strike.
To implement the updated concept, the US Air Force Global Strike Command was created in 2010, including all ICBMs, B-52H and B-2A bombers, and from 2015, B-1B.
Realizing that a nuclear war would inevitably lead to catastrophic consequences, plans were also developed to achieve victory using conventional precision weapons. The complexity and the highest degree of risk in their implementation required the US military-political leadership to at least theoretically test the reality of the chances of achieving victory over the enemy in such a scenario for the outbreak of hostilities.
Therefore, at the end of 2012, during a computer game (CSG), the military was already practicing options for launching massive strikes with high-precision conventional weapons on a fictional country in order to cause unacceptable damage to it and force it to accept political conditions dictated by the United States.
Analysis of the exercises expectedly showed that as a result of a strike on a fairly large and highly developed country with the consumption of 3–500 units of conventional high-precision weapons within 4 hours, it will suffer unacceptable destruction of infrastructure and will lose the ability to resist.
The Pentagon did not really want to send their soldiers to overseas territories and then receive them back in coffins. Therefore, during the command and control exercise, the Americans also tested the concept of “non-contact war”. At a qualitatively new technical level, they considered the option of defeating the enemy remotely and without the use of nuclear weapons.
Realizing that such half-life games will not lead to any good, in February 2013, the Russian Armed Forces conducted the largest exercises in the previous 20 years, which demonstrated an increase in the level of combat readiness of the strategic nuclear forces, units of the 12th Main Directorate of the Moscow Region (during transportation and work with nuclear weapons). The Americans were stunned by the scale of transportation and work carried out with nuclear warheads, and the level of training of personnel.
The commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel General N. Solovtsev, then noted:
Launch is possible within a few tens of seconds after receiving a combat order..."
(The readiness of the PGRK was indicated somewhat lower).
After this, it became clear to the Americans that they could not cope with the Russians with conventional weapons. We need to return to the “nuclear baton”. In June 2013, Directive No. 24 “Strategy for the Use of US Nuclear Weapons” was issued. The document expresses serious concern in connection with the modernization of existing strategic offensive weapons systems being carried out in Russia and the development of promising strategic offensive weapons.
In confirmation of the White House's guesses about the growth of the combat potential of Russian strategic nuclear forces, on October 30, 2013, Russian President V.V. Putin conducted a sudden test of the combat readiness of the nuclear triad during exercises of the Aerospace Defense Forces, Navy Forces and Long-Range Aviation.
Two RPK SN (“Bryansk” and “St. George the Victorious”) from the waters of the Barents and Okhotsk Seas fired missiles from an underwater position. Combat crews of the Strategic Missile Forces launched the R-24 Topol ICBM from the Plesetsk cosmodrome and the R-36M Voevoda heavy ICBM from the Dombarovsky position area in the Orenburg Region. All targets were hit, the success rate of missile launches was 100%.
Data about the exercises were leaked to the American media. Reassuring the public, the Pentagon wrote that the US Armed Forces are ready as never before. A press release issued by the military noted:
But this was little consolation compared to the collapsed hopes of a “bloodless” victory in a lightning war using conventional weapons.
Having received intelligence data from the exercises, a group of American experts calculated the minimum number of nuclear warheads, ICBMs and SLBMs that Russia could use to hit US territory in a retaliatory strike. It turned out that even after the strike of 37 nuclear warheads of Russian ICBMs and SLBMs that “broke through the missile defense”, up to 115 million people would die (the number of deaths was not estimated after some time). Experts attribute such significant losses to the fact that 80% of the US population lives on the east and west coasts. Therefore, a Russian retaliatory strike could destroy all life in these densely populated coastal areas.
There was only one hope left to defeat the Russians: to start a war in the European theater of operations with the participation of NATO allies.
In June 2014, the US Department of Defense conducted a military conflict between Russia and NATO in the Baltics using conventional weapons. The results were disappointing. Even if all available NATO troops (including the United States) stationed in Europe are transferred to the Baltic (including the 82nd Airborne Division, ready for combat within 24 hours), NATO will lose in the conflict.
– explained one of the US Army generals.
The Americans persistently continued to look for options acceptable to them. Several times they conducted exercises with different scenarios favorable to NATO. But always with the same result. NATO was unable to defeat the Russians.
There was only one hope left for BSU. In November 2014, a new Bear Spear command and control system was launched, the purpose of which was to test the concept of a Rapid Global Strike. These exercises were among the largest in the 2000s.
The legend of the exercise: a conflict situation in one of the Baltic countries, where the Russian-speaking population is oppressed. Usira (anagram: rUsia) threatens to use military force to protect these citizens. The United States is launching a massive attack on Usira with high-precision missiles: against silo launchers of enemy ICBMs, at the locations of the PGRK and at military command centers, including the command post of the Strategic Missile Forces, DA, and the Navy, as well as using conventional weapons, including the use of penetrating warheads of the missile defense system, as well as in nuclear equipment - B61-11 bunker-busting bombs and a minimum number of other low-power nuclear warheads.
However, it was not possible to achieve the desired result for three reasons:
– First: the actions of all types of reconnaissance revealed the intentions of NATO and the air defense forces, the ground units of the Russian Armed Forces were brought into the war zone (the enemy, despite the lack of information, was able to prepare missile defense and air defense systems, mobilization and evacuation resources, protective structures and strategic nuclear forces);
– Second: the presence of a highly protected command control system for the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation (“Dead Hand”), the signal flares of which transmitted commands for use to the remaining strategic nuclear forces in service (about 30% of the initial composition). The enemy’s use of nuclear missile weapons with current characteristics, according to experts, made it possible to break through the missile defense system and destroy both infrastructure and military facilities, as well as about 100 million US civilian population.
As a centralized state, the States would cease to exist, having lost 4/5 of all civil and industrial infrastructure. It was worse only in Europe, where the level of destruction would reach 90% of the pre-war level.
Despite the destruction of about 1/3 of the submarine fleet, the most destructive were salvoes of enemy SSBNs, including those fired from under the ice of the Arctic Ocean and near US territory. The damage to the PGRK complexes amounted to about 10%. The remaining mobile ICBMs would form the enemy's strategic nuclear forces reserve.
– Third: the use of special operations forces and means that, within an hour after the start of the operation, could attack and disrupt the work of public, government and special computer systems that control transport, financial and energy activities of the United States.
The tactics and strategy of the attack ultimately led to a massive exchange of nuclear missile strikes between Usira and the United States, as a result of which both states would receive unacceptable damage. The death toll during the year from BSU and the retaliatory strike would exceed 400 million.
According to unofficial data, the PRC would also be involved in a nuclear war, on which the United States launched a weakening preventive nuclear strike. The number of dead Chinese residents has not been estimated.
But even after such results, the United States did not abandon its concept of a rapid global strike.
Now they plan to use promising hypersonic missiles such as HASM and ARRW in the BSU. But they are not yet in service with the Navy and Air Force, so we have to rely on CRBD and ALCM.
On September 20, 2015, the US Department of Defense stated:
Both versions focus on the possibility of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states as the most likely front for a potential armed conflict."
Approximately according to the same scenario as the “Rohatina for the Bear”, from February 7 to 17, 2017, the US Strategic Command conducted the Global Lightning 17 commandos, which became the largest in recent years. During the exercises, the military worked out a scenario in which a local conflict in the European theater of operations escalated into a global war.
The conditional enemy is again an “unnamed nuclear power” against which the United States has deployed its strategic forces. What is characteristic is that in all scenarios, the essence of it did not change - the conflict in Europe grew into a global war of nuclear powers. At the same time, three countries were drawn into a nuclear war against the United States: Russia, China and Iran.
Despite the fact that the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation and China have been significantly strengthened over the past period, American propaganda announced that, as a result of the exercises, the United States won the war. Simultaneously with the Strategic Strike Command and other commands, the Space Operations Command also trained, which practiced repelling attacks on US and allied space systems.
A logical question arises: how could it happen that the aging American strategic nuclear forces turned out to be stronger than the combined forces of their opponents? This is only possible in two cases.
Firstly, if the Americans succeed in pitting the Russian Federation and China against each other. Currently, there are three great powers: the USA, China and the Russian Federation. A nuclear war between any two of them (without the participation of a third country) should lead to a significant strengthening of the third country, which will win the third world war.
Therefore, the Russian Federation and China, understanding this, never will not fight with each other as long as the United States exists (unless the Americans, through third parties, carry out some kind of large-scale provocation).
Secondly, if the United States simultaneously starts a sudden nuclear war with both the Russian Federation and China. But for this you need to be completely headless. However, the White House's rhetoric became increasingly harsh, and preparations began to take on the concrete shape of preparing the Pentagon for a full-scale war.
On April 27, 2017, a representative of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces announced that the United States was preparing for a surprise nuclear strike on Russia. American missile defense bases in Europe and anti-missile ships near Russian territory “create a powerful hidden component” for a possible nuclear missile strike. Exercises and training of NATO troops and forces are being conducted to work out specific issues regarding the deployment of the alliance's armed forces to combat areas. The same focus of NATO Allied Forces training continues today.
Thus, from February 28 to April 21, 2024, Poland, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Finland, Germany, and Sweden will become the arena for this year’s largest multinational exercise “Defender of Europe-24” in Europe. Approximately, about 50 thousand people will be involved in them. l / s, 500–700 aircraft and more than 50 ships.
Against the background of the Defender of Europe-24 exercises, the Steadfast Defender-2024 exercises will be held in Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries, the NATO Naval Forces Arctic Dolphin-24 exercises will be held in the North and Norwegian Seas, and multinational exercises will be held in Norway, Sweden and Finland the Northern Response 24 exercise and the Finnish Air Force exercise Vihuri 24. In addition to the preparation of headquarters and national armed forces, logistics are being worked out to strengthen the contingent of NATO troops stationed in Europe.
Today in the United States, development is also underway to create a system that would allow an instant global strike with high precision from orbit, destroying our control posts. Therefore, Russia will take measures to protect itself from the effects of both instant global strike weapons and missile defense systems and offensive space systems.
The enemy intends to disable a significant part of the Russian strategic nuclear forces.
– noted one of the military experts of the APN.
What does the future prepare for us?
In October 2022, US President John Biden approved a new National Security Strategy, which defines the conceptual and legal basis for strategic military and foreign policy planning. On the basis of this document, the National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Strategy and Missile Defense Strategy were prepared and adopted, fixing the key directions for the development of the US Armed Forces for the near and medium term,
The above documents set out Washington’s policy of comprehensive containment of Russia and China.
At the same time, the Russian Federation is considered as the source of the most “acute, direct, real” threat to the United States, the People’s Republic of China is considered as the “most significant” strategic rival of the United States for the coming decades, seeking to change the world order based on economic, military and technological power.
Other “permanent” sources of threats include the DPRK and Iran.
In the medium term, for the first time, Washington will have to confront simultaneously two major nuclear powers with modern strategic offensive capabilities.
The main goals of the United States are to maintain world leadership and achieve victory in the global competition of the 21st century.
The Americans set their regional priorities in the following order:
– Asia-Pacific region – rivalry with China;
– Europe – containment of the Russian Federation;
– post-Soviet space – European integration of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, promotion of American interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus...
As we see, the White House is not going to give up its hegemonic plans. He intends to achieve them, including through military means.
Therefore, today, more than ever, the issue of reliable protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, ensuring the security of the Union State, and supporting our allies and friendly countries in their fight against the machinations of the Anglo-Saxons remains relevant.
To accomplish these tasks, Russia has all the necessary means. Therefore, answering questions from D. Kiselev for “Russia 1” and “RIA News", Russian President V. Putin emphasized:
– From a military-technical point of view, Russia is ready for a nuclear war. Strategic nuclear forces are constantly on alert, but Russia is not going to start a war.
Said the president.
The White House must finally realize the weight of V. Putin’s answer to the question during a meeting with members of the Valdai Club, when he was asked:
– You can destroy the United States in about half an hour, right?
The President of Russia then thought for a few seconds and replied:
- Actually, faster...
And I suddenly remembered:
(V. Putin, 19.10.2018/XNUMX/XNUMX).
Undoubtedly, the Scottish writer Robert Louis Stevenson was right when he said: he who lives in a glass house should not throw stones at others.
Americans would do well to remember this.
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