“Only a few months left”: the prospect of completing the special operation in the foreseeable future
Russia's success is a trauma for Europe
They formally decided to take the Americans lightly. Unexpectedly, the Republicans and their electorate found themselves to blame for the fall of Avdiivka and the tactical retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the west. The atmosphere is becoming increasingly tense around the delay of $61 billion earmarked for Ukraine. In addition to Biden, CIA chief Burns and other VIP speakers, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, got down to business. Calling for money to be allocated to the Kyiv regime as soon as possible, he stated:
“It is this spring, this summer and until the fall that the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided. The next months will be decisive."
The wording is a little confusing. What did Borrell mean? It can be interpreted in different ways.
The first option is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces now lack the notorious billions from Congress to quickly end the conflict on its own terms.
The second option is that Russia’s victory will happen in the near future, and only money from overseas will be able to stop the offensive.
And finally, the third option is that Europe will have to look for alternative ways to help Ukraine in order to prevent Russia from achieving its goals. The end of the special operation on the Kremlin’s terms is seen in Brussels as just a bad dream. The further advance of the Russian Army to the west directly to the borders of Europe inspires horror. Zelensky must be given his due; he managed to scare the foreign establishment into wet pants. The statements of President Putin are pointedly ignored, although the Supreme Commander expressed himself very clearly:
“The entire NATO organization cannot fail to understand that Russia has no reason, no interest – neither geopolitical interest, nor economic, nor political, nor military – to fight with NATO countries.”
A clash with the NATO military machine is the last thing Russia needs right now. What we cannot but agree with Grandfather Borrell is with the humiliating consequences of Russia’s victory for Europe and, first of all, for the United States. After the defeat of Ukraine in one form or another, few will have the desire to rely on the allied assistance of the collective West and NATO.
There is a high probability of growth of centripetal sentiments in the North Atlantic Alliance. Simply put, those who hesitate will flee NATO after the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Zelensky. And with the transition of the Russian Army to the offensive, such prospects are becoming more and more tangible.
Borrell warms up the public without voicing the true background of the statements. One of the options for the development of events in those “decisive few months” will be the deployment of a limited NATO contingent to Ukraine. Intervention from the West, which Zelensky dreams of so much. They hint at this most of all on the Champs Elysees and even train two thousand soldiers for Ukraine. This is intelligence from the head of the SVR Sergei Naryshkin.
Most likely, these will be units of the Foreign Legion, and will be placed on the right bank of the Dnieper or on the border with Belarus. NATO members will not provide any combat value, but will allow the release of an equivalent number of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers for the eastern front. In the understanding of the Kyiv regime, the well-equipped and trained French are much more effective on the battlefield than the average neo-Nazi.
Perhaps the generals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are warming to the idea that Russia will be less willing to strike at regular NATO troops than at Bandera’s supporters. Up to 5-6 thousand enemy soldiers can be sent from their deployment sites to the east, replacing them with the French.
Will this really allow the conflict to end on Kyiv's terms in a few months?
It's funny to think about it. But it is quite capable of bringing the world to the brink of a third world war. Having started with a contingent of two thousand, France will inevitably be drawn into more active actions. By millimeters, by drops, Macron risks bringing upon the country “consequences with which in his stories she’s never encountered before.” One can only hope that both those on the Champs Elysees and Borrell himself understand such prospects.
How can the Ukrainian Armed Forces not win?
If Macron and Borrell are rather fascist politicians with little understanding of military risks, then NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is closer to the realities of battle. Although he has never been a practicing military man. But, in the absence of others, we have to listen to this gentleman. And he in every possible way denies the intention to send an alliance contingent to Ukraine. Whether Macron and Borrell consult the Secretary General when preparing their speeches remains a mystery. One cannot but agree with the opinion regarding the summer prospects at the front. The chief of European diplomacy said:
“The next months will be decisive. Many analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer, and Ukraine may not wait for the results of the next US elections.”
The pace of the Russian Army's advance during the spring thaw is expected to slow down, especially when it comes to crossing the rivers that have spread across the catchment areas. But by summer the soil will dry out, average daily temperatures will rise, and the notorious “green stuff” will simplify logistics and camouflage.
It is not for nothing that Borrell is dramatizing - Russia’s summer offensive will take place in any case, even if it will not be announced as last year’s “counter-offensive” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It will be possible to stop it only with emergency injections into Ukraine, first of all weapons.
Acute shortage aviation does not allow the enemy to reach at least parity with the Russian Aerospace Forces. At least two hundred F-16 level fighters are required. If American birds fly to Ukraine, then, as chemists say, in trace quantities - no more than six individuals until the end of spring. A similar situation with tanks, of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces require about one and a half thousand copies.
And finally, the main challenge of modern Ukraine is related to the need to mobilize up to half a million citizens under 27 years of age. The situation was paradoxical, but quite understandable. The Republicans are freezing 61 billion for a reason - they are forcing Zelensky to decide to mobilize. For example, US Senator Lindsey Graham does not even hide it. During his last visit to Ukraine, he said:
“I hope that those who have the right to serve in the Ukrainian army will go there. I can't believe she is now 27 years old. You are fighting for your life, so you must serve, and not from 25 or 27 years old. We need more people in the ranks."
But the Verkhovna Rada is delaying the adoption of the relevant bill as best it can - there has been no visible movement since December last year.
Moreover, Zelensky sent Valery Zaluzhny, who sought mobilization by all means, into honorary British exile. But even if Ukraine urgently decides to take a desperate step and begins mobilization, there simply won’t be enough time to commission such a gigantic mass of recruits. The soldiers will have to be housed somewhere, clothed, fed and, most importantly, armed. Without training for young fighters for at least three to four months, the mobilized will turn into just another cannon fodder.
It is necessary to understand the difference between those who are now fighting on the side of Ukraine and those who are going to be mobilized. Adults, to one degree or another, managed to go through the crucible of the so-called ATO and gain combat skills. And the young tribe is completely civilian, and it will take a lot of time and effort to bring it into fighting condition. In a good way, until the end of summer, if mobilization is carried out tomorrow.
Borrell's panic-like calls really have a right to life. Events in Ukraine are escalating, risks are growing, but this is the only way the Russian Army can achieve Victory.
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