Spring campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: from defense to offense

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Spring campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: from defense to offense


Chess game 2024


Since November 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as is known, have switched to “active defense.” From that moment on, the enemy decided not to hold on to populated areas with all his might and to take care of every soldier. An interesting sauce under which the loss of initiative on the battlefield is served to one’s own public. By and large, no one in Ukraine was held accountable for the failure of the offensive. But revenge is a dish best served cold.



Zelensky decided to get rid of Zaluzhny at the end of winter 2024. Initially, everything was limited to rumors, but after a couple of days, evidence of the imminent resignation of the commander-in-chief appears more and more. The main sources of information were Western publications declaring consultations between Zelensky’s office and Washington regarding the new chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

At the same time, the leader of the Kyiv regime wants the head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to write a letter of resignation himself. This will make it easier to survive discontent among the army: after all, Valery is a very respected figure in Ukraine.

A remarkable joke has even appeared in local circles, which compares the relationship between Vladimir Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny with a conflict between spouses in a long-outdated marriage. However, this joke is only part of the joke.


Zaluzhny is clearly no longer Zelensky’s comrade, but the question of his resignation is still open

The replacement of Zaluzhny, if it does take place, will have a direct impact on front-line events. Whoever the new chief is - Budanov or Syrsky - he will send his military to “offensive 2.0.” If only to curry favor with Kiev and once again create victorious euphoria in Ukrainian society. The current head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Budanov, has already mentioned this to Western journalists.

“We make a move, the enemy makes a move. Now it's their turn. They'll finish and then it'll be our turn."

– one of the main nationalists told the Telegraph.

Despite serious losses in manpower and equipment last summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may indeed be worthy of a new offensive. At least the possibility of this cannot be ruled out. There are several reasons.

Western sponsors are clearly holding back funding for Ukraine, and the offensive, albeit symbolic, may inspire a few more billions to be given. The mentioned desire of the new commander in chief to earn an advance of trust from Zelensky should also not be discounted. The head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine must demonstrate his professional suitability as quickly as possible, and this cannot be done by playing defensively.

The scenario for a possible offensive will be similar in some ways to last year’s, but in others will be radically different. Zaluzhny’s idea of ​​going on the attack in almost all sectors of the front in 2023 did not justify itself. The Commander-in-Chief tried to pin down Russian forces with painful injections, not allowing reserves to be transferred to “hot spots.”

On the one hand, there was a lot of logic in this. Numerical superiority is on the side of Ukraine, and it made it possible not to save human resources. Against a concentrated attack in one or two places, there was a reluctance to concentrate a mass of troops in a limited area.

Zaluzhny rightly believed that the Russian Army, taking advantage of its technical and technological superiority, would defeat the strike force even before going on the offensive.

On the other hand, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly underestimated the potential of the Russian defense and superiority in the army aviation. When planning a new offensive, the Ukrainian side will have to take into account the mistakes of 2023 in any case.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have all their hope in drones


Zaluzhny shed light on new combat tactics in early February. Another article with the theses of the commander-in-chief was published by CNN, and it contains a lot of interesting things, especially taking into account the new offensive.

One of the most important challenges is declared to be “the depletion of reserves of missiles and artillery ammunition among Ukraine’s allies and “the impossibility of their rapid production against the backdrop of a global shortage of gunpowder.” Considering how many armed conflicts there are now around the world, it is difficult to argue with Zaluzhny’s opinion. Although who would have thought that a global shortage of gunpowder could cause a shortage of ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

Claims about new quality should also be taken seriously. drones on the battlefield. FPV drones are already partially compensating for the shortage of ammunition among the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In Ukraine they announce a serious increase in production drones countrywide.

Production offices are dispersed throughout the territory in order to avoid attacks from Russian missiles and drones. It is alleged that the enemy has mastered the production of more than sixty types of drones.

Designs are constantly being improved and developed in three directions - increasing range and resistance to electronic warfare, as well as increasing the payload.

A typical FPV drone assembly plant consists of twenty to thirty people who produce three thousand products per month. Everyone remembers the “drone army” that scared the Ukrainians last summer. It seems that the enemy managed to create a truly effective structure only at the end of 2023. An obvious sign of the widespread use of drones is the hunting of individual fighters by FPV operators, something that was not so common until last fall.

Given the above, there is a high probability that thousands of FPV drones will be used not as a tool for positional confrontation, but as an attacking element.

The enemy will try to suppress resistance on certain sections of the front with a massive FPV attack in several waves, thereby clearing a passage for attack aircraft. The most unpleasant thing about this is the almost complete secrecy of the preparations for the offensive. It is much easier to bring several dozen operators with hundreds and even thousands of drones to the front line than to roll up an artillery battery. And the efficiency will be no less.

Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not decide to attack in the spring-summer of 2024, the FPV problem will be key for the Russian Army in the coming months. So far, no effective antidote has been found for this infection.

In the matter of using classical types of weapons, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not as bad as they try to imagine. At least until the fall of 2024, military equipment paid for earlier will be delivered to Ukraine. Weapons not much, but quite enough to attempt a local breakthrough.


Mass production and use of FPV drones by adversaries is becoming a growing threat on the battlefield.

At the same time, there is no need to talk about the effectiveness of a possible offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This will be a series of attacks in a strictly defined location, designed only to raise morale and mood in society. Show sponsors the potential and ask for money again.

Cutting the land corridor to Crimea and creating another strategic threat will not work.

Firstly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces never developed the means to overcome the Russian “Surovikin Line.” There is a chronic shortage of engineering equipment, and demining with Leopards and Abrams is too expensive. The owners won't give any more.

Even if it is possible to paralyze the Russian defense with FPV waves, they will have to enter the positions on foot. Therefore, there can be no talk of any breakthrough into the depths of the defense - only local advances.

Secondly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces never acquired attack aircraft and helicopters that were critical for the offensive. Taking into account the developed Russian air defense, there should be a lot of these weapons, and Ukraine should treat them as consumables. Only then can we talk about the readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for an offensive. So far the enemy has shown no progress in this area.
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40 comments
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  1. -5
    February 8 2024
    the FPV problem will be key for the Russian Army
    And there is a threaded bolt for this!
  2. +13
    February 8 2024
    It seems that articles of similar content will become commonplace over the next five years
    1. +6
      February 8 2024
      a sailboat, that's for sure, don't say gop until it's jumped over, we definitely haven't jumped over
    2. -1
      February 9 2024
      An excellent plan, reliable as a Swiss watch, yeah, yeah, but there is one thing, there are no Ukrainians alive to implement it.
  3. -2
    February 8 2024
    . So far, no effective antidote has been found for this infection.

    Persuade friendly China not to supply drone components to the Banderaites.
    (Strikes on bridges and power generation would also make the situation worse.)
    1. +12
      February 8 2024
      friendly China

      You yourself are not funny?
  4. -3
    February 8 2024
    Budanov: “We make a move, the enemy makes a move. Now it’s their turn. They will finish, and then our turn will come.”
    Budanov is a great optimist. How will they determine whether the Russian army has completed its “move” or not? Judging by the latest massive and combined attack on the Ukrainian rear, everything is just beginning. And with the loss of reserves in the rear, warehouses, and the necessary infrastructure, will it be easy for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to begin the “next move”? There is no doubt that there will be attempts, but with what forces and at what cost in the end, that is the question.
  5. +3
    February 8 2024
    judging by what we observed (realizing that we see a smaller part, but...), - so far in the battle of “shield and sword” the “sword” wins (drones are still cooler than electronic warfare protection against them)...
    War is becoming cheaper, alas... as is human life in it... ((
    1. 0
      February 8 2024
      so far in the battle of “shield and sword” the “sword” wins (drones are still better than electronic warfare protection against them).

      For now, but not in the near future, but not in the medium term. Electronic warfare will be improved. And those drones that are controlled online and not via satellite will probably be jammed. And you can’t control much via satellite either.
  6. -1
    February 8 2024
    Zaluzhny had the imprudence to express his opinion about everything that was happening. And this was enough for Zelensky, who imagined himself to be the ruler of all affairs not only in Ukraine, but also around it.
    1. 0
      February 8 2024
      I think Zaluzhny should move towards the Canadian border. And the sooner the better. For as soon as he resigns, his life will not be worth even a broken hryvnia.
      1. +3
        February 8 2024
        And that our troops are near the Polish border so that Zaluzhny can escape.
        1. +10
          February 8 2024
          By the way, did someone in our country bear responsibility for the unsuccessful planning and support of the operation in the same Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov regions? Personally, I don’t give a damn what’s going on with the military leaders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the main thing is that everything works out for us. Otherwise with this Zaluzhny They've been running around here for months like a fool with a mortar.
  7. +6
    February 8 2024
    if the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not decide to attack in the spring-summer of 2024, the FPV problem will be key for the Russian Army in the coming months. So far, no effective antidote has been found for this infection.

    The key in the whole article, the rest are typical mantras (babbling) of domestic “journalism”.
  8. +2
    February 8 2024
    An obvious sign of the widespread use of drones is the hunt by FPV operators for individual fighters

    If an individual fighter performs a separate task, then no means will be spared to suppress him. One observer/spotter is the eyes of an entire unit. Surely no expense was spared on them before.
  9. -3
    February 8 2024
    The problem for us is that if Zaluzhny leaves, who is littering with corpses during the offensive and was unable to apply NATO tactics, then who will replace him? What if there is a smart and talented commander?
    Another point is the operators of enemy drones who are located at the front line and attack our troops with thousands of drones. This means they are within the reach of our artillery and MLRS and aviation. Communication between the operator and the drone is via radio, which means it can be detected and destroyed.
    1. +4
      February 8 2024
      suddenly a smart and talented commander
      The point here is not intelligence and intelligence, but the fact that whoever replaces him will be more dependent on Ze and other representatives of the political Nazi elite. Accordingly, political logic will be higher than military. This is good.

      Communication between the operator and the drone via radio communication
      But here everything is bad. The Nazis have long adapted. Only the antenna is pulled out into the street, which is camouflaged, and the operator sits in a protected shelter. Even if the antenna is damaged, it is quickly restored. In addition, communication is often not direct, but through a repeater (drone) flying at a safe distance. And the Nazis equip the most valuable drones with satellite communication terminals. Here it is impossible to shoot down a satellite, and it is extremely difficult to jam the signal. sad
    2. +10
      February 8 2024
      Quote: V.
      The problem for us is that if Zaluzhny leaves, who is littering with corpses during the offensive and was unable to apply NATO tactics, then who will replace him? What if there is a smart and talented commander?


      It’s a big mistake to consider the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stupid... almost 2 years of the Northern Military District, it’s time to understand that there are far from simpletons sitting there, if their command had the same resources (human, industrial, etc.) as our General Staff, then I wouldn’t go against Gerasimov delivered (considering what the picture showed us during this time).

      Now Zaluzhny (if you carefully study the press) wants to rely on drones/UAVs/FPVs - including drones, and knock out our assault troops while on the defensive... and only later, when the offensive potential of the Russian Armed Forces decreases, launch a counterattack themselves ( provided that the West provides the required amount of equipment and provides the required amount of ammunition) and this is a completely working scheme...

      Another question is what our General Staff can offer in terms of countering FPV drones? And what next after the capture of Avdeevka, Kupyansk and other hot spots now? There are new lines of defense, new fortifications... and whether the offensive potential of the RF Armed Forces is enough for them is a question.... If we storm all the fortified areas head-on, then no manpower will be enough, a new mobilization will be required, and maybe more than one, but taking into account the huge number of FPV drones the enemy has, this will not change the picture much, it will only increase losses - if we attack the same rake.
      1. +7
        February 8 2024
        You are absolutely right. The other day the Supreme Commander had a meeting about the dror. And yes, they are not fools. How they were able to effectively neutralize the Black Sea Fleet without, in principle, having warships. Underestimating an intelligent and cunning enemy is the path to defeat
        1. 0
          February 8 2024
          Why neutralize it (the fleet)? The Black Sea Fleet currently has no tasks other than launching SLCMs and protecting its own naval bases, because the front is standing, the fight against maritime supplies of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine is not being carried out due to political reasons. That’s what happens, the fleet stands, they hit it, the fleet fights back, and suffers losses
        2. -1
          February 9 2024
          How to neutralize this? Ukrainian ships (more precisely, one remaining barge) are already approaching the Crimean shores? Can you tell me the myth that they started launching fewer missiles and are about to run out? Well, since everything is “neutralized” there?
      2. -1
        February 9 2024
        It’s a big mistake to consider the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stupid

        They are not stupid, they are greedy, you know very well that their primary task is their own enrichment, and the fight with Russia is somewhere in the tenth plan.
        and this is a completely working scheme...

        The working scheme is to steal a couple more yachts and leave before it’s too late, the rest of the schemes are complete nonsense.
  10. -2
    February 8 2024
    If you can’t or don’t want to use technical means to eliminate the problem of countering enemy UAVs, there are only two options:

    1. Maximum blockade of the enemy’s theater of operations and logistics routes.
    2. Preparation and conduct of combat operations in direct contact with the enemy, in fact, the reincarnation of bayonet combat.

    This begs the question: “FPV is a fool, the bayonet is great.” I don't see any other way out.
    1. Aag
      0
      February 9 2024
      Quote: avia12005
      If you can’t or don’t want to use technical means to eliminate the problem of countering enemy UAVs, there are only two options:

      1. Maximum blockade of the enemy’s theater of operations and logistics routes.
      2. Preparation and conduct of combat operations in direct contact with the enemy, in fact, the reincarnation of bayonet combat.

      This begs the question: “FPV is a fool, the bayonet is great.” I don't see any other way out.

      I agree with point 1.
      From point 2, no.
      That's why I don't appreciate your comment. hi
  11. +3
    February 8 2024
    Regarding FPV, there is no absolute weapon, especially since the solutions to the problem are clear, it all depends on the industry. Regarding the spring offensive - if the situation continues in this vein, then it will not be possible to accumulate resources for the spring offensive, because resources are spent faster than they are accumulated.
    1. Aag
      0
      February 9 2024
      Quote: TermNachTER
      Regarding FPV, there is no absolute weapon, especially since the solutions to the problem are clear, it all depends on the industry. Regarding the spring offensive - if the situation continues in this vein, then it will not be possible to accumulate resources for the spring offensive, because resources are spent faster than they are accumulated.

      "... it all depends on the industry..."
      Let me disagree (with a bit of sarcasm) hi ): in Ukraine there has been no industry for a long time (according to the assurances of “our” “analysts”, “agitators”, and simply hat-throwers), - but there are drones! There are many, all kinds - and new ones appear...
      IMHO: the matter is not limited to industry, the military leadership needs to understand: 1) the problem; 2) a vision of solutions and a task; 3) making political decisions...
      1. 0
        February 9 2024
        And I’m not talking about the ability of Ukraine (its owners) to produce FPV drones in commercial quantities. And about the possibilities of Russian industry, to create protection against them. Install a “Lesok” or its equivalent on each piece of equipment. What's the difficulty? There are enough factories producing radio-electronic equipment, both military and non-military. The elemental base and some of our own stuff is being produced; what’s missing from China can be transported by railway trains. The only problem is the lack of understanding (unwillingness) of individual citizens. For this, there are appropriate bodies.
        1. Aag
          0
          February 9 2024
          Quote: TermNachTER
          And I’m not talking about the ability of Ukraine (its owners) to produce FPV drones in commercial quantities. And about the possibilities of Russian industry, to create protection against them. Install a “Lesok” or its equivalent on each piece of equipment. What's the difficulty? There are enough factories producing radio-electronic equipment, both military and non-military. The elemental base and some of our own stuff is being produced; what’s missing from China can be transported by railway trains. The only problem is the lack of understanding (unwillingness) of individual citizens. For this, there are appropriate bodies.

          Sorry, I’m not familiar with the effectiveness of the Lesok electronic warfare system (except for messages from Wiki eight years ago about its use in exercises... But, that’s it...).
          Regarding the element base: what have you seen from Russia lately? (sometimes, rarely, I sit under a lamp with a soldering iron, - audio components. From components, - China, Malaysia, or, - garage stocks, - up to KT-315, -364, ... -602-603, especially with " star", military acceptance - difficult to find...)
          ... Sorry for getting off topic.
          So, to answer the question... Even if technology, equipment, a suppression system (disorientation of Ukrainian Armed Forces drones) is created, the question of quantity (quality, - epistemology, - transition from quantity to quality...))), tactics of application will arise.
          Let's put it this way: they created a complex of combat: range, autonomy, depth, number of targets - declared (of course - limited!). And the enemy, suddenly - no! It attacks either in a different area (friends will tell you), or with a deliberately large number of drones (which sometimes happens now...).
          Yeah... I’m “old”, sick, “alarmist” - well, so let the brave sensible people solve the problem!... drinks
          1. 0
            February 9 2024
            Somewhere before 2018, the Motor Sich plant received electronic components from Russia, somewhere from the Moscow region. The military representatives only allowed them to be installed; Chinese ones were by no means allowed. How could they? Producing in series of 20 - 30 thousand standard products - what is the problem? Has the enemy “shifted” his ranges? So he still moves them, mostly to the top. What's the problem with adding another module (transmitter) and another antenna to a standard product? Well, increase the power of the power supply.
  12. -1
    February 8 2024
    The President is the highest official in Ukraine and the main commander of the armed forces, and therefore has every right to make any reshuffle of officials in his state formation.
    The “offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 1.0” under the leadership of Zaluzhny created a victorious euphoria in Ukrainian society and NATO.
    The “offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 2.0” did not live up to expectations, but it did not lead to a disaster at the front, nor did it change the positional nature of the war.
    Disobedience to the chief commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a demonstrative act of sabotage of the orders of the senior commander. This violates the fundamental principle of unity of command, and during a war it is customary all over the world to shoot without trial for this, otherwise the army becomes uncontrollable and dooms state formation to defeat the war.
    Losses in manpower and equipment depend on the purpose of managing state education, the qualifications of military leadership, army training, strategy and tactics, the quality and quantity of weapons, industrial potential, and the unity of the army and the people.
  13. +2
    February 8 2024
    The author’s article is bleak; he usually ends with, “Victory will be ours!” And this time... apparently, he is tormented by vague doubts?
  14. +3
    February 8 2024
    Quote: Aleksandr21
    Another question is what our General Staff can offer in terms of countering FPV drones

    There is no one super answer here. Comprehensively counteract:
    Its own electronic warfare, taking into account changes in enemy frequencies;
    Own drones operating against enemy operators, and sometimes directly against drones;
    Our own air defense systems that shoot down large drones;
    Training our guys for camouflage and vice versa - work on drones with small arms and drones;
    Practicing artillery and fireworks for identified control centers and even individual operators, etc.

    All together - a lot of hard, and most importantly - routine military work. sad
  15. BAI
    +6
    February 8 2024
    1.
    Secondly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces never acquired attack aircraft and helicopters that were critical for the offensive.

    They now have more helicopters than before the start of the SVO.
    2. Using drones as an example, we see the history of aviation development repeating itself. First - bombers and reconnaissance aircraft, then fighters appeared. Fighter drones will appear in the near future.
  16. +3
    February 8 2024
    I do not agree with the author’s idea about the possibility of a close offensive “2.0” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It’s not for nothing that there is so much shouting about amendments to mobilization with the goal of gathering another 500 thousand people. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have exhausted the supply resources for this offensive, and at the moment they are constrained by defensive battles, which will last at least until the end of spring.
    It is probably clear to the Ukrainian command, even the most stubborn one who thinks “in a political way,” that without suitable air defense and/or local air cover, “counter-offensive 2.0” will be doomed.
    In view of this, they will now try to copy our tactics - namely, the creation of defensive lines and the strengthening of key “festungs”, in the fight for which with us they will try to inflict as much damage as possible on the RF Armed Forces, both with the goal of earning points in the West, and with for the purposes of moral and economic influence, and for the purposes of prolonging the conflict and making it stalemate.
    This does not mean that there will be no attempts at a “counter-offensive” - but objectively, such attempts are very far away due to a combination of factors.

    Each army has an advantage - the advantage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defense on its territory, on established and being created borders, and finally in Western supplies. There now, apparently, are hopes that if the conflict drags on, the likelihood of NATO or individual European states becoming involved in it will increase.
  17. +2
    February 8 2024
    Spring campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the barn and hut burned down!
  18. 0
    February 8 2024
    Maybe Russia should adopt the positive experience of Ukraine in the production of FPV drones throughout Ukraine, de facto in garage or barn conditions. Similar production of drones can be launched in Russia. The only difference is that if they produce attack drones, then we will produce fighter drones, or the type of drone-trawlers, which will catch their drones in their nets like a sea fold. And for logistics, for production, try to negotiate with reliable logistics structures: Valberis, Ozon, PEC, Russian Post, etc. Some will manufacture parts in garages, others, like a designer, will assemble components and assemblies. Well, in general, there is something to think about, because there are no hopeless situations.
  19. 0
    February 8 2024
    The funny thing is that I don’t know about ours, but these guys will definitely go on the offensive, no matter what the cost.
  20. 0
    February 9 2024
    From FPV drones there is just a “tablet”. And it infiltrates the troops. It is enough to jam the video signal. But with our lancets, geraniums, and rockets, the reb no longer rolls. Now, in case of signal loss, they are autonomous and identify and disassemble targets themselves. It’s not for nothing that Ukrainians observe the strange behavior of our missiles that fly from city to city. If the assigned target is hit during flight, the next one is selected by the missile.
  21. 0
    February 11 2024
    There is no doubt that the “white people” who are still providing guns for the “Krivoy Rog” tribe have thought about everything a very long time ago. Back when the leader of the “Brown Bear” tribe smoked the Peace Pipe with them and drank “fire water”. . Which I drank to hell.

    There are many other tribes that also want friendship with white people....

    The West is successfully spinning its flywheel and digging up the “axe of war”, which was not buried at all deeply..... They write that three thousand “axes” at once will be enough for any air defense system of any of the tribes.
  22. 0
    February 12 2024
    Given the above, there is a high probability that thousands of FPV drones will be used not as a tool for positional confrontation, but as an attacking element.

    The most ineffective use of FPV is when attacking a covered enemy and then defense is much easier.

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