Japanese threat to Russia
Universal landing ship "Kaga" in the process of modernization, Japan
Enemy image
A record 95,3% of Japanese residents said they “do not have friendly feelings” towards Russia. Such data were obtained during the annual government opinion poll conducted in September-October 2023. The survey results, released by the Cabinet Office, show the highest levels of hostility toward Russia since such surveys began in 1975, Kyodo reported.
In the latest survey, only 4,1% of participants expressed “friendly feelings” towards Russia. The main reason for this was a special operation in Ukraine. Over the past two years, Japanese media have actively covered events in Ukraine in the interests of the Kyiv regime. Tokyo also maintains a hostile tone in relations with Moscow on the diplomatic and economic fronts. Japan participates in economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and finances Ukraine. All this had an impact on Japanese society, which was accustomed to trusting its authorities and the media.
At the same time that perceptions of Russia are deteriorating, a record level of hostility is being recorded towards China. 86,7% of respondents said they had no “friendly feelings” towards China. The two Asian powers are at odds over the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands in the East China Sea, the Korean and Taiwan issues.
The negative opinion of Russia among the Japanese consistently breaks records for the second year in a row. In 2023, in a similar survey, only 3,1% of respondents assessed relations with Russia positively. 94,7% of respondents spoke about negative feelings towards Russia.
Militarization of Japan
Japan has been methodically and consistently arming itself in recent years. The military budget is constantly growing. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces have actually already been transformed into full-fledged armed forces, capable of not only defending themselves, but also attacking the enemy on his territory. The country's policy is aimed at a complete departure from military self-restraints associated with the defeat of the Japanese Empire during World War II.
The national security strategy adopted in 2022 established the right to counterattack the enemy. At the same time, Japan’s “biggest unresolved issue” named “the problem of the northern territories” (as the Kuril Islands are called in Japan).
Japan also sees a threat from China, whose policies have been called the “greatest strategic challenge” from the point of view of regional and global security. Another threat is North Korea (DPRK), due to the “strengthening of its nuclear forces both qualitatively and quantitatively,” as well as the rapid “development of relevant missile technologies.”
The bottom line, the strategy argues, is that Japan's security situation is at its most challenging since the end of World War II, so now is the time to act.
Russia poses “the most serious and immediate threat to Europe” – this is the wording contained in the new “White Paper” of the Japanese Ministry of Defense, adopted in 2023. From the policy document it follows: the government is concerned about “Russia’s military activities in the Indo-Pacific region” and its “strategic coordination with China.”
For the first time since World War II, Japanese troops received the right to preemptively counterattack enemy bases and command centers using long-range missiles. As a result, Japan is actively increasing its missile potential, developing its air force, navy, and landing forces.
Among the priority programs: the creation of light aircraft carriers based on Izumo-class helicopter destroyers; procurement drones; the purchase of American Tomahawk cruise missiles, which are capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 1,6 thousand km, which will make it possible to strike the coastal areas of China, the DPRK and Russia; deployment of an updated version of the Japanese Type 12 anti-ship missile (flight range 1,2 thousand km); creation of a new generation fighter (including an unmanned version); development of military transport aviation etc.
By 2027, Japan's defense spending will rise to a record level of 2% of GDP. This is approximately 11 trillion yen (81 billion US dollars).
Threat from the East
It must be remembered that Japan is still the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” of the United States. And Washington and London are pursuing a policy of gradual strangulation (the “anaconda strategy”) of the Russian Federation using diplomatic, financial, economic, technological and military methods (the conflict in Ukraine).
The Americans and the British traditionally use other countries and peoples as battering rams and do not get involved in direct conflict themselves. In the European theater there is a mutual depletion of the two parts of the Russian civilization-world - Great and Little Rus'. In the Far East, the Anglo-British tandem traditionally uses Japan against Russia and China.
Also, since the Second World War, Japanese society has maintained a negative image of Russia, which “treacherously attacked” Japan in August 1945. The atomic bombing of Japanese cities is not associated with the United States (Japanese myth about nuclear bombing). They constantly support the issue of the “northern territories” (Kuril Islands).
It is obvious that Tokyo is burdened by its status as a losing power. Plus economic stagnation, which hit the country back in the 1990s and from which the country has never recovered. Although it retains the status of a country developed economically, technologically and industrially. Plus a demographic catastrophe, slow aging and decline of the nation. Psychological problems of the nation that force younger generations to refuse to start a family and go into virtual reality.
You should also take into account the favorable foreign policy moment. The old world order is falling apart. Countries large and small are starting more and more conflicts. Ukrainian front. Western Europe is heavily arming itself, NATO is moving east. Israel is destroying the Gaza Strip. The Houthis disrupt global trade and are bombed by the US and Britain (Who are the Houthis and why is the US bombing Yemen?). Iran and Pakistan exchanged blows. The Middle East is clearly overheated again. Tension is increasing on the Korean Peninsula, around Taiwan.
In such a situation, a victorious war clearly suggests itself. But it must be quick and victorious in order to remove the status of a defeated country. Then Japan will be able to finally reset the restrictions imposed after the defeat in World War II and restart the economy through the rapid development of the military-industrial complex. Militarize society, invigorate the nation.
To do this, you need to create a severe external crisis. There are three possible targets - the Russian Federation, China and North Korea (an ally of Beijing, so a conflict with China is inevitable).
In general, Japanese society does not see much value in the Kuril Islands. The northernmost Japanese island, Hokkaido, is sparsely populated. Only 5 million people out of the country's 125 million population. This is just an excuse. That's why they create the image of an enemy. A little effort by the media, and Japanese society will demand the return of the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin to their “native harbor.”
The question is where external aggression will be directed: to the north (Russian Federation) or to the south (Korea and China). About the same as before World War II. Russia looks more interesting: almost all of its military potential is in the Ukrainian direction. Military forces in the Pacific Ocean have been noticeably weakened. At the same time, jingoistic patriots do not need to shout about nuclear weapons Russia, which will incinerate any adversaries.
Japan does not have nuclear weapons, so they cannot be used against it. Just like in Ukraine. Only ground forces, air force and navy. And here Japan has an advantage, since it can concentrate all its forces in one direction. Russia cannot, connected to the West. In some respects, the scenario of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905. The Russian Empire had a general military-economic advantage, but Japan could concentrate all its forces in the Far East.
However, another question is how the situation will develop on the Korean Peninsula and around Taiwan. If a mess breaks out there, Japan's attention will be focused on these theaters. And there is such an opportunity, since the situation on the planet is developing according to the “more chaos” scenario.
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