Not an oracle. Thoughts on the situation in the NWO zone in 2024
The beginning of the year, as always happens, is replete with various predictions and forecasts. Now you can find any prophecies. From some elders to witches, from analysts and politicians. And the results of these predictions vary depending on whose side certain analysts and oracles take.
A person always believes in miracles. There are optimists and pessimists, and depending on their position, they choose those prophecies that suit their views on the world. There are especially many today who predict the end of the war in Ukraine. Those who are sure that Kyiv is no longer capable of anything. These are probably the most popular forecasts today in both Russia and Ukraine.
Alas, I also had to become the same “prophet” at the request of our readers. Everything you read below is the fruit of the author’s thoughts about how events will develop in the Northeast Military District zone in the coming year. Reflections based on facts known to me and my own conclusions.
So, please do not perceive what is written as something unknown to everyone, but known to me. I am a realist and, as many already know, I do not like to embellish reality. And the understanding that in the Northern Military District zone it is not politicians who are in charge, but the military, came to me after Kherson.
When the president committed a huge political failure by agreeing with the arguments of the military command. Leaving Kherson to preserve the army costs a lot. I would say this is akin to Kutuzov’s abandonment of Moscow in 1812... As subsequent events showed, Kyiv really used the Kherson theme well, but ultimately this city became the place where the Ukrainian Armed Forces won a Pyrrhic victory.
When will we finish the SVO?
I’ll start with the fact that hopes for a quick victory are built not on facts, but on emotions. Our military officers are to blame for this and... story Russia. When you read messages about the capture of another village somewhere in the Northern Military District zone, your Russianness involuntarily emerges. This is probably already part of our mentality. Enormity...
Our distances and distances in Ukraine are two big differences. Often the end of one settlement and the beginning of another in Ukraine coincide. There are battles for every house, for every planting, for dachas and other buildings. We perceive the world as if our enormity and scattered population centers are a property of all states.
For some reason, there is a widespread opinion among most journalists that Kyiv will be forced to negotiate. Well, further discussion about whether we agree to this. Where this opinion came from is unclear to me. Not a single Kiev politician has ever spoken about the desire to stop the war! But Zelensky does not change his “peace formula” - the 1991 borders! And the sponsors of the war, like the President of the United States or the Chancellor of Germany, are also in favor of continuing the war.
This means that there is no talk of any negotiations yet. Moreover, Kyiv is confident that sponsors will not forget him. No matter how the situation develops in the future, deliveries and supplies to Ukraine will continue. Honestly, I’m sure of this too. Funds have been invested. The result was not achieved. This means again “until the last Ukrainian.”
Ukraine announced a transition to defense. That is, winter is the time to equip engineering structures, new strongholds, warehouses and other fortifications. Time for deliveries of new weapons and ammunition. Time to reorganize the defeated formations. In certain circles we can already hear talk that for this it is even possible to sacrifice some territory...
I would pay special attention to new supplies of air defense and missile defense systems. New supplies will significantly complicate the work of our aviation. Especially if the Ukrainian Armed Forces acquire new aircraft. By the way, in many materials I read that American F-16 aircraft are old and cannot compete with ours.
Agree. The machines were produced in the 80-90s of the last century, but all of them have been modernized many times and can really withstand our aviation. So you can’t underestimate them. And Ukrainian pilots, who were trained in Europe and the USA, have already completed the training course and are ready for battle. I think that in the near future planes will fly to Ukrainian airfields from some Northern European country.
Depending on how large the Western assistance will be, the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will also be adjusted. There is a desire to launch another “counter-offensive” in the summer, but there is also an understanding that it is quite possible that the West will not have time to find as many necessary weapons and ammunition. In this case, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will stand on occupied lines and not take offensive actions.
How will the nature of hostilities change?
Alas, this year the nature of the database will become more complicated. Just for us. And this will be connected with the fact that Ukraine will receive new weapons. First of all, this drones. Everyone understands the importance of this type of weapon. And work on the creation of these weapons is being carried out at an accelerated pace in many countries. I think that by spring the potential of these weapons in Ukraine will significantly increase. This will not have a significant impact on the nature of the fighting, but it will spoil our nerves.
A much more serious threat is posed by anti-ship systems, which are actively being supplied to Ukraine. The power of these weapons already allows them to shoot through the entire Black Sea. A further increase in supplies will very significantly limit the actions of our surface fleet. Especially large ships. Moreover, the port infrastructure of our cities is also under attack.
By the way, not many people have noticed, but Ukraine does not plan to buy large ships. Small missile boats and nothing more. That is, this option has long been envisaged by those planning operations at sea. Even the frigates transferred by Britain, which Turkey banned from entering the Black Sea, did not particularly excite Kyiv. Boats can also be delivered along the Danube...
Well, the most dangerous thing.
Long-range missiles. Weapon, which, as confirmed by the strike on Belgorod, the enemy will immediately use against civilians in border cities. This is a truly serious problem that needs to be addressed urgently. There is no doubt that such missiles will soon be in the arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The West is really going all-in.
Possible actions of the Russian army
I really want to end the material with a prediction. I cannot provide any evidence for my theory. Just thoughts.
So, the first thing I want to remember is the liberation of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Let me remind you that this is one of the stated goals of the SVO. And it has not yet been completed. Now there are favorable conditions for carrying out this task. I think that reaching the administrative borders of the republics will be a completely natural result of the winter campaign of the Russian army.
But already during the SVO, another task was added to the above.
In addition to the above Russian regions, two more appeared, part of which is occupied by Ukraine. These are Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. I think this problem will be solved in parallel with the solution of the first one.
Naturally, the question arises about Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov. Alas, I believe that taking these cities is not advisable now. Both militarily, politically, and most importantly – economically. It is not profitable for us to scatter our forces, and the critical situation in these cities is only getting worse.
The only city that, under successful circumstances, is worth taking is Nikolaev. Firstly, this is a serious port, which means it fits perfectly into the solution of the further task of the Russian army. Cut off Ukraine from the coast!
And then Odessa...
Once upon a time, I wrote that in order to completely calm Ukraine it is necessary to take the Left Bank and cut off Kyiv from the Black Sea. For now these are dreams. But dreams tend to come true. Of course, if they get a little help. And now there are a lot of assistants in the Northern Military District zone. Well trained and masterfully wielding their weapons.
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